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Subscribe to RSSSurging in the polls, former Sen. Rick Santorum talks Tuesday's Iowa caucuses, President Obama and foreign policy.
NBC's Domenico Montanaro reports on the ad race in Iowa, why Santorum's making his move, and how undecided voters might break on Election Night.
Breaking down the Des Moines Register poll… How Santorum and Romney could end up winning Tuesday’s caucuses… Santorum’s appearance on “Meet the Press”… Paul’s appearance on CNN… The campaigning continues, even on New Year’s Day… And DNC tries to seize on the Bain Capital issue.
DES MOINES, IA -- The Des Moines Register’s poll last night became the third-straight survey in the past week to show the same storylines in the GOP presidential contest in Iowa -- Mitt Romney in the lead (but not above 25%), Ron Paul a close second, and Rick Santorum surging in third place. The numbers from the poll conducted Dec. 27-30 of 602 likely caucus-goers: Romney 24%, Paul 22%, Santorum 15%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 11%, and Bachmann 7%. But get this about Santorum’s surge: In the Des Moines Register’s final two days in the field, he jumped into second place and was running neck and neck with Romney. “[Santorum] averaged 10 points after the first two nights of polling, but doubled that during the second two nights. Looking just at the final day of polling, he was just one point down from Romney’s 23 percent on Friday.”
*** How Santorum and Romney can win: Bottom line: You can see how Santorum might be able to win this thing, especially if Perry and Gingrich supporters decide to go with the former Pennsylvania senator. What’s more, Santorum appears to have crossed a viability threshold, with just 6% of likely caucus-goers in the poll finding him the least electable in a general election. Indeed, Santorum’s closing TV ad in Iowa plays up his electability, calling him the “trusted conservative who gives us the best chance to take back America.” On the other hand, you once again see how Romney can win the Iowa caucuses -- with 25% or less -- because the conservative vote gets divided up.
*** Other numbers in the poll: 51% of likely caucus-goers surveyed in the poll said their minds were made up, while 41% said they could still be persuaded. Also, Gingrich was seen as the most knowledgeable (41% said that) and Bachmann the least knowledgeable (26%); Ron Paul was the most consistent (35%), and Gingrich and Romney the least consistent (36% and 24%, respectively); Romney the most electable in a general election (48%), Paul and Bachmann the least electable (29% and 28%); and Bachmann, Paul, and Santorum the best able to relate to Iowans (all tied at 20%), and Romney and Gingrich the least able to relate to Iowans (26% each).
*** Santorum on “Meet the Press”: One of the more fascinating parts of Rick Santorum’s appearance on “Meet the Press” this morning was his talk about having to accept compromise -- for example on abortion -- to get where you want to go. “I supported the Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act," he said. "Now does that ban all abortions? No. But it moves the country in the right direction. And so what I've said in the past consistently is I'll support laws that move the ball forward.” He went on to say, “Of course my background is to find compromise. That's what you have to do in order to get things done. You don't compromise on your principles.” The word “compromise” might not sit well with some conservatives; then again, it highlights a sense of pragmatism not often associated with Santorum. NBC’s David Gregory also asked Santorum about his endorsement for Romney in 2008 and what has changed since then. His answer: “Well, what changed was who he's running against... I made the political judgment, right or wrong, that the best chance to stop John McCain, which was what my concern was, I had served 12 years with John McCain.”
*** Paul talks Civil Rights Act, Iran, and third-party bid: Meanwhile, on CNN this morning, Paul was asked about his opposition to the 1964 Civil Rights Act. He said the country was better off without Jim Crow laws, but said the Civil Rights Act “destroyed the principle of private property and private choices.” He added that it creates the slippery slope of the government coming into people’s bedrooms. “It is the government that causes so much of the racial tensions,” he said. On Iran and it acquiring nuclear weapons: “I don’t want them to have a weapon… We just need to be more cautious… We don’t need a war in Iran carelessly.” And Paul once again didn’t rule out a third-party presidential bid, if he doesn’t become the GOP nominee. “I don’t like absolutes,” he said. “I have no plans on doing it.” Paul added, “On Tuesday, we’ll find out a lot more on the future of this election.” *** EDITOR'S NOTE *** This item mistakenly said earlier today that Paul had said the country was better "with" Jim Crow laws. That was a typo and has since been fixed. He said that the country was better off "without" Jim Crow laws.
*** On the trail: With two days until the caucuses, all of today’s New Year’s Day activity is in Iowa: Bachmann attends church in Oskaloosa… Gingrich holds events in Ames, Marshalltown, and Waterloo… Perry attends church in West Des Moines… Romney stumps in Atlantic and Council Bluffs… And Santorum holds rallies in Sioux City and Rock Rapids… Meanwhile, Jon Huntsman continues to campaign in New Hampshire… And Ron Paul, at home in Texas, is off the campaign trail.
*** DNC seizes on Bain: Also in Des Moines, IA today at 4:00 pm ET, the DNC is holding a press conference with a worker -- Randy Johnson -- who was laid off from his job at an American Pad and Paper plant in Indiana that Romney’s Bain Capital took over in 1992.
Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 2 days
Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 9 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 20 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 30 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 34 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 65 days
Countdown to Election Day: 312 days
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with plenty of angst, I must say thanks to MSNBC for the correction on the Paul quote.
I have angst every time I hear Paul speak, where can I complain. /rolls eyes, there are plenty of neo nazi sites you can read the propaganda for him on if you can't take some criticism on him.
Jan you are a sad sad troll.
Who has been driven back into the arms of democrats by Paul supporters. I agree with my father, I can no longer see any compassion or humanity in the GOP. Least of all Ron Paul, a bunch of drug wanting, gun toting, isolationists who would rather see hundreds of thousand die in terrorist attacks than to try to protect ourselves.
Jan, you are a clear-thinkin' American, who's not warped by the racist 'baggernuts! Smile!
JLVA wishes he had your photo. He's upset since he doesn't.
Ol' man Ron Paul is a proud-to-be-LOON!
Why in the world would he want my photo?
JLVA
Jan disagrees with you and that makes her a "sad troll"....
you are just "sad"!
Ron Paul supports tend to be that way, they cry and whine if anyone brings up the litany of completely out there rhetoric he has thrown out there. How can anyone accept that he signed racist propaganda for years and didn't look at it? Is he that stupid? I mean thats all that makes him if he did.
Santorum is a hypocrite, the only one worse is Obama.
"The only one WORSE is you" Silly - Your picture is worth a thousand words- Nothing there ?
Meth is dangerous, its not just bad and I do believe they need to continue to fight it.
Jan, if I want to take meth I will and if you and Rick Santorum and Pres Obama and that guy from the 700 club knock on my door...then I am not answering it. Please stay out of my personal business and I will stay out of yours.
I wish you all the luck when you become a burden on the health care system and the government in a few years of abuse.
Jan, it sounds like we are getting somewhere with this conversation! : )
Not only do you have NO right to knock on my door and tell me to stop doing meth, but I have NO right to knock on your door to ask you to pay for my addiction recovery. I cant screw my life up and then try to socialize the costs of my decisions. If I did I'd be EXACTLY the same morally as the 1% bankers that screwed up their companies and then asked us for bailouts.
It won't be recovery, it will be your death the tax payers have to pay for, we do it all the time now. How to tell a meth abusers, they have a tic, they are extremely gaunt and have sores all over their body from where it has eaten it from the insides out. They eventually end up in and out of hospitals with no insurance, only to eventually die. Have fun with that.
By the way please do not go out and use meth because I said that, it is extremely addictive and I would never advocate any use of it. Political disagreement should not having me telling you to have fun with the consequences sorry.
Yes, correct (mostly). We seem to be agreeing on many points other than government's role in prohbiting it. Which leads to this question; how is it there is all of this meth use if it is currently illegal? You will never be able to legislate morality. You sound almost exactly like alcohol prohibitionists or Jerry Falwell or Bob Dornan. Laws like this only encourage the religious nuts to make more laws (which sooner or later come after YOU and your vices that you enjoy) while also bankrupting us economically and causing plenty of opportunity for injustice (i.e. blacks being dispropotinately jailed for drug crimes).
It is currently illegal, why give children more access to a drug that dangerous? My concern is mostly that teenagers tend to try things and its one of those highly addictive but its also deadly, far worse on the body than any other drug. There is no way to end the drug war without making them all legal.
All these republican candidates are evil. Though I kinda like Ron Paul, he is against SOPA (stop online piracy act) after all, and a man against SOPA is a man for me. But Obama says he'll veto it.... we'll see.
I remember some strange story about Santorum's wife having a miscarriage and the family driving the fetus around during holiday visits.
It was either that or a goodbye tour for the fetus, something like that.
I'm not kidding!
santorum trained by Newt !
enough said.
Santorum has great words but Romney has the experience.
I have been amused for weeks by the GOP calvacade of clowns as they ascend from the rhetorical gutter to dizzying heights of insane promises, threats, and outright lies , and throwing millions of dollars to the wind to win some kind of caucus election in a state that means nothing in 2012....but now, I am alittle scared ! Are the Republicans in Iowa (and elsewhere) serious about one of these running against POTUS Obama ? When I think about GW Bush being elected-TWICE- I recoil in abject horror of the possibilty of one of them winning by some fluke or another in 2012. God forbid !
They all make Bush look like a genius in comparison. I can't wait to see the next candidate that is going to terrify me into voting for Obama.
not to worry Jay.
trump left the GOTP because he knows not one of the current clowns has a chance against the current POTUS and if Trump runs he will have to use his own money for his campaign and that won't last long
long story short the GOTP has a fools field and the country will be safe at the end of the day.
News Flash! Banana Sam the spider monkey was approached by GOP leaders and asked if he would please run for the nomination. Banana Sam, needing time to think it over, left his perch in the zoo for some banana time. A passer by in a nearby park found Sam and coaxed him into his backpack. Zoo officials have declined to say what Banana Sams decision was, more at eleven.
The republicans should just change the name of their party to "The Socialist Enablers" party, because that's what they are doing, enabling the socialist democrats to win. (Yeh, I know "YOU DON"T KNOW WHAT A SOCIALIST IS." .... yes I do, and it's Obama, Pelosi and Reid).
are you a citizen of the US or did you come here illegally. you sound like a commusist and i know what a communist is by golley!
can we see you birth certificate please.
DNC continues to attach Romney. What are they afraid of?
The only candidate that is electable? Is this a trick question?
.........attaching him to what?
I agree with JayArr.
I thought there was no way we'd ever elect that texan retard and this dumass country phucked itself not once but twice.
I don't laugh at these idiots anymore because we live in a twice proven overwhelmingly idiotic country and someday day I might be calling one of them Mr. President.
Like we have to call Odumbo President. I get it.
DemsRtoast2012,
Is that you Miffedin12 aka IRecon2012 aka Miffedin12 aka yourfired12 aka GreedyBizOwner aka electionday aka letsdance2012 aka frostyinalaska aka alwaysfaithful1 aka alwaysfaithful (11 time rereg)??
*just sitting quietly in the background listening and reading the opinions....HAPPY NEW YEAR!
In essence:
This a medias poll to find out how their strategy is working. Did they succeed in throwing the scent off of Dr. Ron Paul's popularity..
Vote against big government in 2012.
Vote for Freedom!
No Ron Pauls popularity is waning in the face of his history, if he did make it into office he would never be able to pass any of his agenda.
I hear what you're saying but based on his track record I believe what Paul said that he was not aware.
Have you seen the newsletter? The things I've heard that it contained were predictions on many areas including a possible "race war." My question is, why is merely stating the potentiality, racist?
This is where I part from all others in that I think everything should be on the table and not sanitized and warehoused with all other political correct subjects.
Anyone who signs stuff for years without looking at their signing is suspect. I am sorry that makes no sense to me, it was racist propaganda that people are trying to dismiss with a very stupid answer.
However, that is just one of my issues with him and his platform, mostly though he will be ineffective. Congress isn't going to pass crazy.
@ Pullitsurprize1: Really? Again w/ the newsletter? Something that was apparently written over 20yrs ago? Good grief. He's admitted so many times that he did NOT write the darn thing, he left an interview after a "reporter" <--I use that term losely-- asked him about it. In fact, if this is the only so-called "dirt" they dig up on this guy, it makes me want him office even MORE!
Face it the Grand Old Paty is not a Party I'd ever attend...LOSERS
And liberals really aren't liberals anymore either.. They are both mutant hybrids of what they once stood for..
Democrats who suffered one of the worst defeats in US history last November talking about losers hahahahhahahahah.
How did you do in those swing state House districts last fall again? What was it, 0 for 60? Hahhahahahahhaha.
Chesty, last November was a democratic sweep, perhaps you are thinking 2010 and then everyone regretted voting for the tea party so they voted out everything and everyone they could? I expect that pattern to continue as the tea party continues to make the GOP look like complete clowns and idiots.
there was no democratic sweep in November 2011, they were severely molested in Virginia, for one, a state Obama won in 2008 that he has no chance in, clearly, in 2012.
I was referring to November 2010, yes.
There's no regrets that will lead to Demoncatic clowns taking power in the House again for a long while.
You have absolutely 0 chance of retaking the House this fall under stretch-face Pelosi, and most probably will be in the gutter for another dozen years if not longer, following the 1995-2006 pattern. Only another Democratic wave, of which there is none on the horizon, could get you back in there.
You'll also be losing the Senate, you have already ceded South Dakota and Nebraska to the GOP as Conrad and Nelson stepped down, and you have another 10 Senate seats that are tossups, so the Democrats will be looking at somewhere between 43-47 senators in January 2013.
Unless you leftist pukes can do something to reverse this trend, and there are no signs of this on the horizon, the GOP red tide will continue and reach a filibuster proof majority in 2014, when you will have to defend all the Senate seats you won in 2008, only because of the big Obama win.
You're in deep, deep shi'ite. All the Senate races you barely won in 2006 and 2008 because of the Demo-wave are up this fall and fall 2014 in a much better environment for righties. And Rasmussen, who called Obama's win within 1% in 2008, has had Republicans leading the generic party approval number for all of 2011 up till now.
@Jan: Regarding the Tea Party subject. At least the Tea Party voted out people who did not live up to their promises. Who is holding the Democratic Party accountable? Do Democrats even care what their politicians are up to for their own gains, careers?
Why are we allowing any public official to lie to us? To use their connections in Washington to do things that only help themselves?
Hopefully we will all be holding both parties in congress accountable but Chesty, don't underestimated how angry the tea party has made the middle class. And the house represents the majority of tea party leadership in congress, they could easily lose the house. They right might take the senate but you can count all of the clowns out for president which should be their easiest win.
Unfortunately all of the republican candidates are worse than generic. What is worse than the cheapest? I have no clue.
Lies... obviously not journalism
Thank you for barfing Tea-Paty sludge on cue, Mr. Sanctimonium. Enjoy third place in Iowa!
VOTE THEM ALL OUT OF OFFICE
All the politicians currently in Washington are corrupt and living fat, which by the way you are paying for, and need to be voted out of their position. Why should they be allowed to be re-elected when they can't do the job they were elected to. They work for us and they take for granted that we won't exercise our vote because we are complacent thus allowing the 1% to dictate who wins because of their money.
I believe we should have term limits so we have fresh ideas rather than the same old ideas presented by the same old bought and paid for politicians.
no matter what party you belong to let's vote out any incumbent and get fresh blood in the system. let's clean house.
Your vote is important and is more valuable than all the money the 1% has.
Stand up and be counted !!!!!
do you think for a minute if you performed poorly at your job you would be allowed to continue and get a raise to boot.
what the heck is a matter with us voters.
Pullitz-
And liberals really aren't liberals anymore either.. They are both mutant hybrids of what they once stood for..
What makes you think either party has "stood" for anything? Seems to me they're both bent over for the lobbyists.
@Mikespike: Fraid you got me there.. They are all in it for themselves with their topical knowledge, slick presentations of the issues and perfect attire.. When looking at the whole picture it's surprising that we do not have more unruly unrest in this country. How much longer do you think before there are economic fueled riots in our streets? The government is no doubt preparing for the eventuality as Obama does his best to placate...
Our system is surely flawed and needs some corrections. As long as politicians continue to support the few who provide them with the money to fund their re-elections through media propaganda, it will not cure itself. For starters, we need to remove the lobbying, special interests, corporate and individual donations, unless they are done anonymously or some other manner that prevents exspectingpreferential treatment in return. We need to have term limits and remove the inequitable benefits politicians have established for themselves. Both parties are equally guilty of this. I am guesing that the conservativew will claim that this problem is limited to liberals and vice versa. But think back of the last time anyone has publically acknowledged that the other party has a better plan or idea on a particular issue. Exactly.
RonPaulistines, MSNBC writes in this article that earlier today for hours they had an article up reporting that Ron Paul said America was better with Jim Crow laws, but that they've now corrected it (according to Editor's Note), and have what he actually said, which was that America was better without Jim Crow laws.
An honest mistake?
Wellll, if MSNBC says it and it's on the internet... it has to be true..
Yes, why even bother with a poll or analyzing poll results this close to the Iowa Caucus?? Why not just wait a day, and see what the people of Iowa actually have to say at the polls??
Media is hungry for news, any news. If they had to report on the color of Newt's tie, they would try to make a story out of it.
Pretty pathetic.
Rick Santorums views are too hardcore and extreme for me.
Rick Perry is too stupid, and too hardcore and extreme,
Michele Bachman is bat $#!^ crazy, and too hardcore extreme,
Ron Paul wants to let the markets decide everything, History tells us the markets end up enslaving poplulations and chopping your hands off if you dont do what they want. In other words, too hardcore extreme,
Newt is erratic, his ego is bigger then his waistline and his pandering to our emotions by crying (crocodile tears) just annoys me.
Mitt will no doubt get the GOP nomination cause he upholds the values of the GOP party, this week anyway,
and the rest of them got bounced off the turnip truck a while ago.
Im voting for Banana Sam the spider monkey.
The only people in politics that have really stood out as extreme in the past few years were Barack Obama's friends and mentors.
Man, what a bunch of whackjob Stalinists he hung out with his whole life!
Wow, Stalin, who killed 20 million of his own people, Chesty do you have any freaking clue who Stalin is or what country he even led? Historical morons.
hmm...Chesty, have you been watching these people talk? or read what they have to say? These are not the GOP of yesteryear, these people talk of war like its something we all want. They talk of cutting budgets with no regard to the consequences of that cutting, They talk about having religious views as part of governing, sorry dude but thats crazy talk. We need calm rational leaders who will do whats right for the people, not for corporate special interests.
Banana Sam, GOP contender 2012!!!
Jan, yes, his acquaintance terrorist Bill Ayers would have been a perfect apparatchik in Stalin's Russia, another one of BHO's mentors in his book was a Communist, perfect fit again, and that guy Jeremiah Wright, who he called his "spiritual mentor" for 20 years, definitely takes the Stalinist line on the United States of America.
His attacks on the justified use of nuclear weapons by the Democratic administration in 1945, done because Japan refused to stop fighting the war she foisted on us, sound almost exactly like what a Stalinist would have said about the events in the late 40's or early 50's.
Their side of course committed mass murder on a vast scale but they would try to invent human rights abuses by the United States (like nuking Hiroshima) to claim the US was worse or at least no better morally than the Soviet Union.
His spiritual mentor took the Stalinist line on foreign policy regarding the US in several speeches I saw from 2008. It got to the point where he almost sounded like Ron Paul.
Chesty,
I think you left out Van Jones, a real communist.
Santorum making a "surge"?? You call 15% a surge compared to 24% (Romney) and 22% (Paul)? The race is between Romney & Paul in Iowa. Santorum has spent so much time and $ in Iowa that if he doesn't win, he ought to bow out.
Man, I wish the mainstream media would stop trying to cloud the undecided minds of who they (the media) want in office. People, do your own studying on these candidates and what they stand for. Don't rely on Fox, CNN, and msNBC, or whatever tv program that pushes this crap into our faces.
Yes, because Santorum was at 3-5% and now he's at 15%. He's up 10 pts, and 3 times what he had 2 weeks ago.
Romney is doing about the same as ever in Iowa, around 25%.
Look up dictionary definition of "surge".
Santorum's gain has come at the expense of Newt Gingrich. The constant attacks have dwelled his support, and the far right want's someone other than Romney.
Each has been given his turn in the spotlight, Perry we found out was a moron, Bachmann always was a moron, Gingrich is a mean, fat man with no morals value system at all, Huntsman has never gotten any support, and that really leaves Santorum, as the last man standing. Ron Paul is a fringe candidate, and a nut-ball that attracts nut cases.... so Santorum has a chance, he just has to hang on. Now, he's F$%%ked up as well, but he could actually come out with the nomination since the far right want's nothing to do with Romney....and the longer it plays out the better Santorums chances become. Once Perry and Backman drop out all those votes will go to Santorum, same with Newts.. there's at least one far right nut that will get those votes, it won't be Romney.
Now Obama will kill anyone coming out of the clown show, and it is a clown show...Never in my lifetime have a seen such an abundance of unqualified candidates for public office as this group... They shouldn't be allowed to run for dogcatcher...let alone the presidency.
Thanks for the clarity. I don't follow Santorum, and didn't realize he was that low at one point. Don't you think though that he's spent too much time & money there? I'm leaning more towards Paul, but from what little I've read about him, I do like Santorum more than Romney.
@ Ron: Would you mind explaining how Ron Paul is a "nut"? Not tryin' to be argumentative, but just curious. So far, I believe he's the only one who will bring our troops home & stay out of other ppls business. He wants to get rid of big gov't. He wants ppl to have more personal freedom. Nothing wrong w/ that, in my eyes. The mere fact that main-stream media doesn't like him (probably refuses to load their wallets) makes me like him even more!
...you people make my (mule) tired.....
For Ron Paul supporters - less than 72 hrs will tell the story. Keep the faith. "Do not fire 'til you see the whites of their eyes".
Ron Paul 2012
Regardless of whether Paul wins Iowa or not, he'll not win another state...
Why oh why are we still ignoring Huntsman??? The complete lack of attention to him tells me he's probably the most intelligent and reasonable candidate. We have left intelligence and reason behind.
cause he is boring. he speaks in rational measured tones, he says things that arent crazy. Sorry, but the GOP wants semi-nutjobs so they can draw a comparision between themselves and Obama, trouble is that deep down the GOP are having to confront the problems of the country in the same way that Obama has had to do it. GOP supporters can kick and scream about being compared with Obama, but when getting down to the details of dealing with our problems there are not that many options, unless of course you want to drive off a cliff, which sometimes I think they want to do.
The complete lack of attention to him tells me he's probably the most intelligent and reasonable candidate.
By your logic, that makes Obama the dumbest man in the room.
The republican party has......yep, not the party I participated in for 30 years..