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Subscribe to RSSSurging in the polls, former Sen. Rick Santorum talks Tuesday's Iowa caucuses, President Obama and foreign policy.
NBC's Domenico Montanaro reports on the ad race in Iowa, why Santorum's making his move, and how undecided voters might break on Election Night.
Breaking down the Des Moines Register poll… How Santorum and Romney could end up winning Tuesday’s caucuses… Santorum’s appearance on “Meet the Press”… Paul’s appearance on CNN… The campaigning continues, even on New Year’s Day… And DNC tries to seize on the Bain Capital issue.
DES MOINES, IA -- The Des Moines Register’s poll last night became the third-straight survey in the past week to show the same storylines in the GOP presidential contest in Iowa -- Mitt Romney in the lead (but not above 25%), Ron Paul a close second, and Rick Santorum surging in third place. The numbers from the poll conducted Dec. 27-30 of 602 likely caucus-goers: Romney 24%, Paul 22%, Santorum 15%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 11%, and Bachmann 7%. But get this about Santorum’s surge: In the Des Moines Register’s final two days in the field, he jumped into second place and was running neck and neck with Romney. “[Santorum] averaged 10 points after the first two nights of polling, but doubled that during the second two nights. Looking just at the final day of polling, he was just one point down from Romney’s 23 percent on Friday.”
*** How Santorum and Romney can win: Bottom line: You can see how Santorum might be able to win this thing, especially if Perry and Gingrich supporters decide to go with the former Pennsylvania senator. What’s more, Santorum appears to have crossed a viability threshold, with just 6% of likely caucus-goers in the poll finding him the least electable in a general election. Indeed, Santorum’s closing TV ad in Iowa plays up his electability, calling him the “trusted conservative who gives us the best chance to take back America.” On the other hand, you once again see how Romney can win the Iowa caucuses -- with 25% or less -- because the conservative vote gets divided up.
*** Other numbers in the poll: 51% of likely caucus-goers surveyed in the poll said their minds were made up, while 41% said they could still be persuaded. Also, Gingrich was seen as the most knowledgeable (41% said that) and Bachmann the least knowledgeable (26%); Ron Paul was the most consistent (35%), and Gingrich and Romney the least consistent (36% and 24%, respectively); Romney the most electable in a general election (48%), Paul and Bachmann the least electable (29% and 28%); and Bachmann, Paul, and Santorum the best able to relate to Iowans (all tied at 20%), and Romney and Gingrich the least able to relate to Iowans (26% each).
*** Santorum on “Meet the Press”: One of the more fascinating parts of Rick Santorum’s appearance on “Meet the Press” this morning was his talk about having to accept compromise -- for example on abortion -- to get where you want to go. “I supported the Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act," he said. "Now does that ban all abortions? No. But it moves the country in the right direction. And so what I've said in the past consistently is I'll support laws that move the ball forward.” He went on to say, “Of course my background is to find compromise. That's what you have to do in order to get things done. You don't compromise on your principles.” The word “compromise” might not sit well with some conservatives; then again, it highlights a sense of pragmatism not often associated with Santorum. NBC’s David Gregory also asked Santorum about his endorsement for Romney in 2008 and what has changed since then. His answer: “Well, what changed was who he's running against... I made the political judgment, right or wrong, that the best chance to stop John McCain, which was what my concern was, I had served 12 years with John McCain.”
*** Paul talks Civil Rights Act, Iran, and third-party bid: Meanwhile, on CNN this morning, Paul was asked about his opposition to the 1964 Civil Rights Act. He said the country was better off without Jim Crow laws, but said the Civil Rights Act “destroyed the principle of private property and private choices.” He added that it creates the slippery slope of the government coming into people’s bedrooms. “It is the government that causes so much of the racial tensions,” he said. On Iran and it acquiring nuclear weapons: “I don’t want them to have a weapon… We just need to be more cautious… We don’t need a war in Iran carelessly.” And Paul once again didn’t rule out a third-party presidential bid, if he doesn’t become the GOP nominee. “I don’t like absolutes,” he said. “I have no plans on doing it.” Paul added, “On Tuesday, we’ll find out a lot more on the future of this election.” *** EDITOR'S NOTE *** This item mistakenly said earlier today that Paul had said the country was better "with" Jim Crow laws. That was a typo and has since been fixed. He said that the country was better off "without" Jim Crow laws.
*** On the trail: With two days until the caucuses, all of today’s New Year’s Day activity is in Iowa: Bachmann attends church in Oskaloosa… Gingrich holds events in Ames, Marshalltown, and Waterloo… Perry attends church in West Des Moines… Romney stumps in Atlantic and Council Bluffs… And Santorum holds rallies in Sioux City and Rock Rapids… Meanwhile, Jon Huntsman continues to campaign in New Hampshire… And Ron Paul, at home in Texas, is off the campaign trail.
*** DNC seizes on Bain: Also in Des Moines, IA today at 4:00 pm ET, the DNC is holding a press conference with a worker -- Randy Johnson -- who was laid off from his job at an American Pad and Paper plant in Indiana that Romney’s Bain Capital took over in 1992.
Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 2 days
Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 9 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 20 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 30 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 34 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 65 days
Countdown to Election Day: 312 days
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BY the way, MSNBC needs to IMMEDIATELY retract the statement that Ron Paul "favors Jim Crow laws". That is the OPPOSITE of what he said in the CNN "State of the Union" interview. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvvciND6Xg4&feature=youtu.be
Media desperation is showing through, big-time! Flat-out wrong on Paul's opposition to Jim Crow Laws. Fortunately, the main effect of such misstatements of Dr. Paul's positions is to alert the public to the fact that YES, the media DOES have a horse in this race.
Yes, how dare the media repeat Ron Paul's own words...
MSNBC just wrote a retraction, claiming their mistake was a "typo." Right, and I've got a bridge I'd like to sell you.
"*** EDITOR'S NOTE *** This item mistakenly said earlier today that Paul had said the country was better "with" Jim Crow laws. That was a typo and has since been fixed. He said that the country was better off "without" Jim Crow laws."
Some typo...they completely misrepresented his position on a volatile issue just before the caucus. Is this carelessness or malpractice?
What an outrageous lie by MSNBC! Ron Paul did not say we were better off with Jim Crow laws - he said just the opposite. This media lie and smear campaign has to stop. Otherwise you will lose what little credibility you have left.
The actual Ron Paul quote about him being against Jim Crow laws:
"Well, we could have done it a better way because the Jim Crow laws obviously we had to get rid of and we're all better off for that. And that is an important issue and so I strongly supported that."
I think that a retraction and apology is highly in order.
What I find amazing is all of the armchair commando's sitting back downing Ron Paul because of his opposition to endless wars. All while pretty much circle jerking to Santorum, Romney and Gingrich saying "Yea, let's attack Iran"
Well people, I have news for you. Iran is nothing like Iraq. There are two major differences that none of you are looking at. Iran has Russia and China on her side, TWO heavily nuclear armed nations -- Do you think we stand a chance in hell of winning against both of them? HELL NO. This isn't Call Of Duty people, THE US DOES NOT ALWAYS WIN. You can't just run behind cover when you're wounded and auto-regen, your health and jump back into the fight. YOU DON'T @!$%#ING RESPAWN WHEN YOU DIE.
Are you willing to send your sons and daughters off to war? Let's ask all three of the chicken-hawks the same thing, two of which are draft dodging pieces of trash. Romney ran off to France to spend time in a castle and wait out the war, Newt married his teacher. Santorum, that man has never put on a military uniform a day in his life -- and you people trust that he'll protect this country?
What do you think the more likely outcome is going to be? Iran war starts, China and Russia join in. Romney, Santorum and Newt volunteer to go themselves? OR iran war starts, China and Russia join in, Romney, Santorum and Newt all decide to sign an executive order bringing back the draft, and removing their own kids names from the list.
I am a wounded Veteran, I support an end to all these wars, I support Ron Paul for President. Just remember what I tell you armchair commando's -- REAL WAR DOESN'T PLAY OUT LIKE A VIDEO GAME.
China and Russia would never support Iran due to a backlash from the UN and the rest of the world. But you are right. We shouldn't fight Iran; it's gonna be costly, and hell, we might not win, unless you consider Iraq a victory. I may not agree with Ron Paul, and I may support Obama, but I am willing to agree with Ron Paul on this: NO WAR WITH IRAN. If Iran starts it than let's kick their ass with special forces, aerial bombardment, and a blockade. But if they even THINK about putting boots on the ground, we ought to be protesting in the streets.
Perhaps you should try listening to what Hu Jintao and Vladmir Putin and Medvedev have been saying. They have all said we better not attack Iran. China has told it's people to prepare for war, Russia is showing off it's might by testing two ICBMs that can easily carry warheads.
If I have learned anything at all with history, it is that you don't mess with another nations ability to economically support it's people. And if we disrupt 40% of China's oil by attacking Iran, they wouldn't care about a little UN backlash.
Its not his opposition to going to war with Iran that is the problem, I don't think any sane person thinks we should. Its his anti israel and open support of Iran and terrorism that is very problematic. He does not distinguish between tyranny, dictators and any other form of government. He considers terrorist attacks justifiable defense and considers 9/11 nothing more than a property dispute.
I guess in their drug induced hazes the Ron Paul supporters have forgotten what 9/11 was like.
He is not anti-Israel, he is anti foreign aid period. Foreign aid is killing this country. And did you not hear what Bin Laden said on why they attacked us. "Because you are on our holy lands" That right there is what Bin Laden said.
Ron Paul just repeated it and people are saying he blames 9/11 on the US. No, he is just saying what the actual terrorist are saying.
JLVA, I heard him say these things myself, stop lying. He is now trying to cover for what he has said in the past but he did say all that stuff. In my mind he changes more than Romney, only its even more dangerous because I have no doubt he supports terrorists, is a neo nazi and a extremist right wing likely terrorist himself.
Youre a liar. Can you prove those outrageous claims.
I'll consider your silence as a negative...
Paul specifically said the opposite about Jim Crow laws. He said twice they needed to be abolished.
ATTENTION MSNBC, CORRECTION REQUIRED: Ron Paul said the country was much better off WITHOUT Jim Crow laws. MSNBC is opening up itself to lawsuits with these kinds of misquotes. Your readers deserve better reporting too.
I still can't get past hearing him say that 9/11 was merely a justified property dispute.
Are there any more Republican debates scheduled? The most entertaining part of the race is the crowd reaction at the debates. These people are more freakish than any other reality show and put Jersey Shore to shame.
(Un)Fortunately, there's two more of these looney comedy debates this month--January. I don't know what TV channels.
Either way, there'll be some "laffs 'n gaffs" for the "clearthinkers of America". The "Loon SHow" should be minus at least 2 or 3 more, by then.
I think these people are sick of pollsters and will tell them anything to make them go away! We shall see the results Tue.!
Not a lot to say except to wish everyone a great New Year. My hope for this year is that people behave more thoughtfully and decently toward one another. In addition, it would be so nice if everyone who posts on these blogs would think through what they have to say BEFORE they put it "on paper" and click on "Post Comment". That would surely serve to eliminate a big chunk of the stupid, mindless remarks that we are forced to endure when scanning the comments. 2012 is bound to be a better year for most of us in the 99%.
Ol' man Paul is sorta in Newtie Tootie's voter's range: Stuck in a niche. He'll never, ever be POTUS! Let ol' man Paul whine on about how old his newsletters are, or whether he had anything to do with 'em. Excuses? Won't do him any good with the voting masses down the road, anyway!
Fact: MSNBC is in no danger of some silly lawsuit!
BTW: Obama/Biden win in 2012! No doubt!!
Agree completely. Ron Paul hasn't got a snowball's chance in hell of becoming Prez. He's the most radical right winger getting out of the GOP Clown Car. But I'm enjoying watching the circus.
OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
MSNBC.com just did a MAJOR misquote saying Ron Paul supported the Jim Crow Laws, when in fact, he said quite the opposite that the world was better off without the Jim crow laws. Basically, they just misquoted Ron Paul and made him look like a racist.
The Misquote
He said the country was “better off with Jim Crow laws,” but said the Civil Rights Act “destroyed the principle of private property and private choices.”
The Interview
Way to distort the truth MSNBC
No, all those years of racist propaganda that he signed with his name doesn't seem racist at all...its convenient how he suddenly became non racist when he decided to go into politics...
I DEMAND a retraction for misquoting Ron Paul
CDJ55,
Why support a blatant mistruth? Why not just take Ron Paul on with his views on issues? There is plenty of room for a robust discussion on his Constitutionalist viewpoints. Cheap shots only solidify and grow Paul's power.
Paul will be annihilated by the DNC, do enough search through his interviews and watch them. The man is scary, so vote him in, when people see him for who he really is, they will stopped being so swayed by their desire to get their drugs legally.
Uhh, Drivingrain...Power? With whom? A bunch of niche worshippers? Are you, by chance giving looney, ol' man Paul a real chance at being POTUS? Good grief, man! Wake up & come back to R-E-A-L-I-T-Y, Drivingrain! Ol' man Paul doesn't really wanna be POTUS. He knows it! You shoulda realized that by now. Keep giving him the benefit of your excuses. The ol' man simply has too many racist, looney thoughts in his noodle. Paul was born 200 years too late.
And, no! I ain't votin' for him, or any of those other neo-nuts. Ol' man Pauls power?? Whine on...!
BTW: Obama/Biden in 2012! No doubt!!
DrivingGrain -
Except this bunch of GOPers only support the parts of the constitution that they want -guns, etc. You either support the whole constitution or not.
CD J55,
I know you probably dislike Fox News, but do you realize you're using the Fox-News-styled-playbook of simply stating Ron Paul is silly and hoping it sticks? It doesnt stick. IT'S ABOUT THE ISSUES, NOT RON PAUL. The issues will long outlive Ron Paul. There is a socially liberal, economically conservative movement in this country (ie constitutionalists) that will be destroying the Democratic and Repbulican party as we know it and it will happen within a decade. Sorry to break the news to you, but more and more people dont give a darn what you do in your bedroom just as much as they dont care what you do with your money. The message is strong support of Federalism, a strong/trim government that protects freedom, and the celebration of all freedoms for all citizens. And it's a winning formula.
Suzq, agree. That's why Paul's issues are gaining so much momentum; he's not a pick-and-choose Constitutionalist.
I demand Ron Paul explain calling 9/11 a mere justified property dispute. I demand Ron Paul explain for the years of racist propaganda. That quote is a minor infraction of the wack job that is called Ron Paul and his druggy supporters that just want legal drugs.
Both Obama and Paul probably need to better explain their tacit support of racists. I dont think either are bigoted though. Anybody who out-and-out accuses Obama or Paul of being a racist only will help the side their fighting against.
Ron Paul published neo nazi propaganda and profited from it, how much more racist do you want to get?
I have never once done any drugs, so way to go on that one, dumbass. Way to listen to every little thing Newt and the MSM tells you. Secondly, he has explained the newsletters, he has taken responsibility for not looking after them more closely.
No one with two brain cells pings together signs anything for years without looking at them closely and frankly I find it hard to believe anyone besides people desiring legal drugs would support Ron Paul. He will never get his domestic agenda through congress, he is the most ineffective member of the house for that reason. He has no intention of doing anything foreign policy wise, besides shutting down the CIA so we won't know when we are going to be attacked to prevent it. Of course without a department of education, everyone will be just too stupid and drugged to care that he is lifting our butts up and telling terrorists to stick it to us.
I don't listen to anything Newt has to say, I have spent an extensive time going back through interviews with Ron Paul and scaring myself about him.
Wow... I don't even know how to respond to this mindless drivel you just spewed out. You do realize that the department of education is the reason WHY college tuition has increased by almost 20% year over year right? FED student loans all of that has drove up prices.
It sounds to me like you want to continue to be a burden on this system, because you don't want to get your ass out and get a job, you'd much rather that my taxes pay for everything you do.
I am a registered nurse who doesn't advocate introducing meth amphetamine legally to teenagers. In one hit they can become addicted to one of the most dangerous drugs in existence that is extremely difficult to ever get off of. I am a nurse who doesn't like to hear that 9/11 is nothing more than a justified property dispute, those were PEOPLE not just buildings, not that he cares. There are a hundred other reasons I dislike the man and his ideas are so out there, he won't even get them past congress. He would be a limp dick leaving us vulnerable to attack because he will not protect us. Doing away with the CIA, our primary intelligence source? He wants us to be attacked.
You mean the same CIA that had intelligence that terrorist planned to attack the United States, the same CIA that would prefer to overthrow an elected Government instead of do what they were formed to do? Then yea, that CIA needs to be shuttered and reworked.
And who is saying that meth should be given out freely? Do you enjoy making stuff up in your mind? Ron Paul has said, he wishes to get the federal government out of the war on drugs. LET the states handle it themselves. If they decide to legalize pot, it doesn't mean that I'm going to go buy some. I don't buy alcohol and that is legal.
And stop bringing up 9/11 as he has always stated what the terrorist stated, what the CIA stated, what the 9/11 commission report stated. The same thing Bin Laden said.
Wow I do vaguely remember him insanely ranting about the crap your making up and Sean Hannity asking him where his proof was. Thats right, he insanely makes things up about our government so people like you who don't require evidence, get behind him. Anyone who asks for evidence you just dismiss. No he said it was merely a property dispute, I heard him on Sean Hannity, and trust me I usually don't like Hannity but he is the only one with the balls to take on this wack job.
How do states plan on taking on everything the federal government currently handles? Is he planning on increasing their taxes by that much?
Freisty Redhead Roselle... Good to hear 'ya !
Santorum, that's the guy who thinks you shouldn't f**k unless it's to procreate right?
Polls say Mitt Romney is in the lead. Well. it looks like he gets to drive the clown car this week.
He has been deemed the least insane or corrupt of the pack. He has been the front runner for the most part since the first, occasionally others will other take him for a short time but they always fall.
Least insane or corrupt? the man bought companies, laid off half their work force and turned around and made money off of that. He is as corrupt as you can get.
I know, they really are a sad lot, except Huntsman who apparently makes too much sense to get any attention from the right.
msnbc should be sued for libel over the lies on Ron Paul. This is a LIE,“better off with Jim Crow laws,” but said the Civil Rights Act “destroyed the principle of private property and private choices.”
He clearly said we are better off without Jim Crow laws. win iowa for Ron Paul and expose the lying media for the corrupt status quo they are. Msnbc,fox and cnn have shown themselves to be flat out liars by attacking ron p[aul. this is not vetting. this is flatout lying repeatly on many subjects and misleading viewers and flat out lying to viewers. shame on msnbc fox and cnn for trying to destroy freedom and liberty and our country!
Ron Paul after he wins should use the the new laws to declare cnn,fox and msnbc terrorists on the american people, sarcasm.
bottom line We should win the gop nomination just based on the fact the media is lying and it is so obvious. Win Iowa/NH and expose the media for the liars they are. Ron Paul vs status Quo,if you do not support Ron Paul/ Then you support obama/romney status quo bendover.
Ron Paul is a scumbag, I don't care if they misquoted him. It doesn't change my already formed opinion that the man would kill this country if he were allowed. However, the only thing that would happen is us being deemed weak and attack worthy with him at the helm. Congress isn't going to let his garbage through...if his supporters stopped taking drugs long enough to learn how government works, it would help.
jan everything you said applies on to you you enjoy obama/romney 2012 bendover.
Honestly if you think Ron Paul is an answer, you must be on drugs. Honestly he has zero chance and his numbers are falling and his signing without looking at neo nazi propaganda is a crap excuse. Like his crap drug addict supporters.
Amazing Jan, there you go again accusing people of being on drugs. Your corporate masters must be so proud of you.
I can think of no other reason why anyone would support Ron Paul, I have no corporate masters. I am a nurse that seeks to find a reason how anyone could support a racist isolationist, who would like nothing more than for us to support terrorist states like Iran.
"Ron Paul is a candidate of the KKK Hate Supremacists and his son is a loose nut from the Tea Retards supported by the Kocheads. This is getting Crazy, this Country is going to Pot ? Ron's Pot ??? You know !!!
Obama gave his money to racists, but I dont think he's a racist. And I think it would be as stupid as many of these posters who go after Paul to go after Obama on these same sideways accusations. Looking at these comments, I think Paul has a much better chance to take the White House than we're giving him credit for. America will get to know him and will judge very quickly he's not a racist. I have. I didnt support him in '08 , looked into it, and know with certinity that he is no more racially driven than the current President. The left seems poised to open the door wide open for Paul to be able to play the victim card and he'll get FAR more votes than he might otherwise get as a result.
Keep smoking that pot and hope and pray that hell freezes over and Ron Paul got elected and Congress were to go completely insane and pass something he plans.
Brianb:
Your ignorance does not make you morally superior to the 99% of us who do not share it.
Anyone got any bets on who's gonna drop out of the "Republiturd/'baggernut Comedy Debate SHow" by next weekend?
I say Bachmann-the Hypnotized and Newtie Tootie. Huntsman should definitely be gone after N.H.
Ron Paul DID NOT say the country was “better off with Jim Crow laws.” He said the opposite. Watch the interview.
A retraction needs to be made.
RON PAUL 2012 !
There was a poll done that confirms that 78% of the people polled believe that most poll data is made up.
Jan,
You guys using the Fox-News-let's-call-paul-crazy-and-hope-it-sticks-line have much better angles to go on. dont stoop to that. You mentioned drug laws before. I think you want to keep drugs illegal based on your previous comment. Agree or disagree, I appreciate you bringing up a real issue. FWIW, I think eliminating federal drug laws will do more for black america than any other issue; blacks are clearly over-represented on drug arrests. It needs to stop and we must also stop telling people what to do in their bedrooms. Assuming im right that you're against repealing drug laws, are you also in favor of other behind-closed-door-prohibitions like sodomy laws?
Drivin, last time I checked sodomy isn't addictive in one hit and doesn't eat you from the inside out. Making it legal for teenagers to have easier access to is a disaster in the making. Methamphetamine is a nightmare for the abusers and anyone around them, and you want to just legalize it and compare that to sodomy? I don't care about what people do in their bedrooms. Idiots, you all must be on drugs if you can make that kind of comparison.
There is no need to call people names Jan. Agreed meth is bad. Many drugs, sex acts and other things are bad and are scientifically risky to the users/commitors of those acts (some of those I have personally done, though not drugs)...but I do not believe I have a right to knock on your door (nor you mine) and send you to jail for doing them. There are plenty of statistics to back up the position of drug liberalization. I'll spare you of me spouting them off here. But the broader point is that I look forward to the nation having an open discussion about important issues like this in the future and not name-calling and race-baiting.