E-mail updates
Follow on Twitter
Subscribe to RSSSurging in the polls, former Sen. Rick Santorum talks Tuesday's Iowa caucuses, President Obama and foreign policy.
NBC's Domenico Montanaro reports on the ad race in Iowa, why Santorum's making his move, and how undecided voters might break on Election Night.
Breaking down the Des Moines Register poll… How Santorum and Romney could end up winning Tuesday’s caucuses… Santorum’s appearance on “Meet the Press”… Paul’s appearance on CNN… The campaigning continues, even on New Year’s Day… And DNC tries to seize on the Bain Capital issue.
DES MOINES, IA -- The Des Moines Register’s poll last night became the third-straight survey in the past week to show the same storylines in the GOP presidential contest in Iowa -- Mitt Romney in the lead (but not above 25%), Ron Paul a close second, and Rick Santorum surging in third place. The numbers from the poll conducted Dec. 27-30 of 602 likely caucus-goers: Romney 24%, Paul 22%, Santorum 15%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 11%, and Bachmann 7%. But get this about Santorum’s surge: In the Des Moines Register’s final two days in the field, he jumped into second place and was running neck and neck with Romney. “[Santorum] averaged 10 points after the first two nights of polling, but doubled that during the second two nights. Looking just at the final day of polling, he was just one point down from Romney’s 23 percent on Friday.”
*** How Santorum and Romney can win: Bottom line: You can see how Santorum might be able to win this thing, especially if Perry and Gingrich supporters decide to go with the former Pennsylvania senator. What’s more, Santorum appears to have crossed a viability threshold, with just 6% of likely caucus-goers in the poll finding him the least electable in a general election. Indeed, Santorum’s closing TV ad in Iowa plays up his electability, calling him the “trusted conservative who gives us the best chance to take back America.” On the other hand, you once again see how Romney can win the Iowa caucuses -- with 25% or less -- because the conservative vote gets divided up.
*** Other numbers in the poll: 51% of likely caucus-goers surveyed in the poll said their minds were made up, while 41% said they could still be persuaded. Also, Gingrich was seen as the most knowledgeable (41% said that) and Bachmann the least knowledgeable (26%); Ron Paul was the most consistent (35%), and Gingrich and Romney the least consistent (36% and 24%, respectively); Romney the most electable in a general election (48%), Paul and Bachmann the least electable (29% and 28%); and Bachmann, Paul, and Santorum the best able to relate to Iowans (all tied at 20%), and Romney and Gingrich the least able to relate to Iowans (26% each).
*** Santorum on “Meet the Press”: One of the more fascinating parts of Rick Santorum’s appearance on “Meet the Press” this morning was his talk about having to accept compromise -- for example on abortion -- to get where you want to go. “I supported the Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act," he said. "Now does that ban all abortions? No. But it moves the country in the right direction. And so what I've said in the past consistently is I'll support laws that move the ball forward.” He went on to say, “Of course my background is to find compromise. That's what you have to do in order to get things done. You don't compromise on your principles.” The word “compromise” might not sit well with some conservatives; then again, it highlights a sense of pragmatism not often associated with Santorum. NBC’s David Gregory also asked Santorum about his endorsement for Romney in 2008 and what has changed since then. His answer: “Well, what changed was who he's running against... I made the political judgment, right or wrong, that the best chance to stop John McCain, which was what my concern was, I had served 12 years with John McCain.”
*** Paul talks Civil Rights Act, Iran, and third-party bid: Meanwhile, on CNN this morning, Paul was asked about his opposition to the 1964 Civil Rights Act. He said the country was better off without Jim Crow laws, but said the Civil Rights Act “destroyed the principle of private property and private choices.” He added that it creates the slippery slope of the government coming into people’s bedrooms. “It is the government that causes so much of the racial tensions,” he said. On Iran and it acquiring nuclear weapons: “I don’t want them to have a weapon… We just need to be more cautious… We don’t need a war in Iran carelessly.” And Paul once again didn’t rule out a third-party presidential bid, if he doesn’t become the GOP nominee. “I don’t like absolutes,” he said. “I have no plans on doing it.” Paul added, “On Tuesday, we’ll find out a lot more on the future of this election.” *** EDITOR'S NOTE *** This item mistakenly said earlier today that Paul had said the country was better "with" Jim Crow laws. That was a typo and has since been fixed. He said that the country was better off "without" Jim Crow laws.
*** On the trail: With two days until the caucuses, all of today’s New Year’s Day activity is in Iowa: Bachmann attends church in Oskaloosa… Gingrich holds events in Ames, Marshalltown, and Waterloo… Perry attends church in West Des Moines… Romney stumps in Atlantic and Council Bluffs… And Santorum holds rallies in Sioux City and Rock Rapids… Meanwhile, Jon Huntsman continues to campaign in New Hampshire… And Ron Paul, at home in Texas, is off the campaign trail.
*** DNC seizes on Bain: Also in Des Moines, IA today at 4:00 pm ET, the DNC is holding a press conference with a worker -- Randy Johnson -- who was laid off from his job at an American Pad and Paper plant in Indiana that Romney’s Bain Capital took over in 1992.
Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 2 days
Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 9 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 20 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 30 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 34 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 65 days
Countdown to Election Day: 312 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @DomenicoNBC, @brookebrower
Leave a Comment:
Can you believe the hypocrisy? A one percenter (Romney) running to represent the 99%.
So what? Obama the elitist was a one percenter who ran and won to represent the 99%. I guess it is ok if the one percenter it is a Democrat???
Dee:
I think you are confused, Obama is far from the 1% of this country. It would help if you would find out what the 1% are made up of.
I don't think Obama has several hundred million dollars.
He is more like a 60% er.
If you what to use net worth I would guess that 40 to 50 percent of Americans are millionaires or close to it.
I am not confused. To qualify as a one percenter, all you need is over 10 million in assets and making about 300k per yr. Lets see, Obama went to Columbia and Harvard, never held a real job in his life, plays golf every weekend at the most expensive and exclusive resorts, spent 4 million on his vacation to Hawaii, will make more millions after he retires, etc...Yes, I could consider him a one percenter! Let's not forget the members of his staff, Peter Orzag, former WH Budget Director, Rahm Emanuel, former chief of staff, he is worth about 16 million. Oh yeah, I forgot Nancy Pelosi spending 10,000 a night at a hotel, wonder what she is worth????
Dee, Obama knows he is rich, admits that he is rich, AND gets donations from the rich...
BUT he is standing up for the NON-RICH!
Asking the RICH to pony up and pay their fair share!
THAT is the difference between Romney and Obama!
Ron Paul in 2012? Yes!!!
Ron Paul in 2012? Yes!!!
Congressman Ron Paul voted against the Iraq War.
Congressman Ron Paul voted against the Afghanistan War.
Congressman Ron Paul voted against bailing out the banks that caused the 2008 financial meltdown.
Congressman Ron Paul voted against TARP.
President Ron Paul would cut unnecessary foreign aid.
President Ron Paul would balance the budget!!!
Ron,
Vote for the Paul/Romney ticket in 2012!!!
The last time the republican party had a balance budget was under Ike when he was President back in late 50's or 60's???
C'Mon Iowans, Vote for Mr. Santoram!!! Go Rick!!! Go!!!!!!
Remember folks, President Obama INHERITED the 10% unemployment from Bush/Cheney Policies. 25 million people are out of work because there are NO JOBS available. Where are the Job Producers in this country (Millionaires etc), and where are the JOBS. Remember the Tax Cuts for rich to produce JOBS in this Country. Only JOBS produced were oversea in China, Mexico, India, Japan and in Europe. US does not Mfg anything any more. Cheap oversea labor is the reason!!!
Steve,
The fastest way to open-up 8 million non-agricultural jobs to 22 million unemployed Americans is to deport 15 million illegal aliens. Instead, President Obama sues states that want to enforce immigration laws.
97% of all illegal aliens do not work in agriculture.
"Illegal immigrants work in many sectors of the U.S. economy. According to National Public Radio in 2005, about 3 percent work in agriculture; 33 percent have jobs in service industries; and substantial numbers can be found in construction and related occupations (16 percent), and in production, installation, and repair (17 percent). According to USA Today in 2006, about 4 percent work in farming; 21 percent have jobs in service industries; and substantial numbers can be found in construction and related occupations (19 percent), and in production, installation, and repair (15 percent), with 12% in sales, 10% in management, and 8% in transportation. Illegal immigrants have lower incomes than both legal immigrants and native-born Americans, but earnings do increase somewhat the longer an individual is in the country."
Everyone touting their favorite candidate.....remember whomever is elected President still has to work with a dsyfunctional Congress. A corporate, special interest, wall street, billionnaire owned Congress.
Regardless of what ideas a presidential candidate spouts....they have to get them all through a dsyfunctional Congress.
And the most dysfunctional member of Congress is Senator Harry Reid (D).
Americans today, now have their backs to the wall, WE THE PEOPLE, need a change from the
atypical two party paradigm that has besieged Washington
since the inception of The Federal Reserve System, in 1913. Clearly, Ron Paul will be the Next President.
Simply and honestly,
Dr. Paul is simply reminding us of our God given rights
that we were born with as Human Beings,
hence thereby requiring from our virtues within each of our souls, prudent
clarity, and focus in our logic, by:
the size of over bloated government,,
the rancid pork barrel infestation of lobbying for political favors within the beltway,
an over 5 billion dollar a year activity.
our global military presence (and the exorbitant billions of spending that
go with it),
constitutional redressing of States rights.
return of the gold and silver backed dollar.
elimination of worthless printing of
the present inflated fiat Federal Reserve Currency.
the illegal presence of the neither Federal , which there are no reserves,
because they print currency out of thin air then bill the taxpayer for it,
to END THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK !!!
Ron Paul is standing at 22% in Iowa with a nearly complete media blackout from MSNBC, CNN, Fox, and every major news network and yet "experts" say he's not electable? Ha. So much for fair reporting and elections in America. Just follow the money and you will find out why Ron Paul doesn't get positive coverage from the media. One example...NBC/MSNBC, owned by GE (49%) makes millions from supplying its military products of the great American War Machine. Since Ron Paul doesn't support America being the global warlord, he is bad for GE's business. This is why the commentators on say he is "unelectable". Not because he isn't good for the people, he just doesn't support the war profiteers's wallets.
MSNBC's polls do not reflect the actual poll out of Iowa which still show Ron Paul as being in the lead. MSNBC is very selective of who they poll and do this on purpose to try and convince people that who THEY say is number one is actually number one. Mainstream media lies to no end and no matter how they spin the story and how much they try to ignore Ron Paul he is still the most likely candidate to win the caucus. MSNBC needs to grow a spine and start reporting on the truth rather than what they are paid to report.
Ron Paul may do relatively well in Iowa but he will NOT win the nomination and will NOT be president. The only place Ron Paul is going is back to his seat in Texas. That's not spun form the liberal media -- that's simply reality.
The evangelical christian-right might love Rick Santorum but there is no way he can win. Santorum screwed the people of PA, that's why we dumped him. He is too far right with his views. We don't need a bible-thumper as POTUS. Santorum is a poster child for why abortion shold be legal.
Msnbc just like the other government propaganda outlets are nothing more than unreliable diarrhea. Go ahead and deliberately take out of context what ron paul said these idiots are unprofessional and i wish they would go away like the plague.
Romney is a CEO , knows how to boost the economy, and that's what we need in 2012. Obama, the Golfer-in-Chief , is a college professor. Obama should go back to the college scene and teach liberal Socialism which is his forte.
Vote Romney 2012 for JOBS JOBS JOBS.
Leona.
Romney destroyed jobs with the Bain company he handled and then Outsourced the rest... Get your facts straight....
facts are Romney started companies like Staples.....
so, get YOUR facts straight.
Leona,
Staples was co-founded by Leo Kahn and Thomas G. Stemberg. Get YOUR facts straight. Bain Capital put money into Staples but they nor Romney started the company.
So, get YOUR facts straight.
Keep after it, John. Leona barely has a passing acquaintance with facts. Bain Capital has destroyed countless jobs, pocketing the gains for their wealthy elite investors.
Romney is a CEO , knows how to boost the economy,
We had a business man in the White House not too long ago -- in fact the only president we ever had with his MBA. His name was George W. Bush. How was the economy when he left office? The last business man before him was Herbert Hoover. What kind of shape was the economy in when he left office.
Feisty Redhead and all her left-leaning friends don't have the right to comment on who and how the Republican candidates slug it out. Get you own house in order and tell "your man Obama" to man up on "change we can believe in". I sure can't believe in Obamacare...not a good change, among other not so nice "changes".
i have to laugh at all you born again Repulicans. you really believe you have a vote in who will be your party's candidate.
your candidate will be the one with the most money not the one that may make sense.
just ask trump the king maker or rush limpballs
harley,
I guess we can say the same about Obama this time around, especially. Guess his 1 billion will go quite far to blanket the country with the biggest smear campaign any of us has ever lived through.
So Leona, will you join me in a demand that the disgraceful Citizens United decision be overturned? Doing so would be the first step toward taking big money out of politics.
Guess his 1 billion will go quite far to blanket the country with the biggest smear campaign any of us has ever lived through.
My guess is the teapublicans and their buddies are going to spend a whole lot more than a billion.
I love the way MSNBC "accidentally" misquoted Ron Paul on the Jim Crow laws.
Instead of declaring him "nutty" for his views on Iran, perhaps it would behoove the media to point out that he was PROVEN correct on Iraq. Iraq did not have WMD's. Perhaps we would be better off listen to the person who has been proven correct rather than those who are trying to force us into another war.
If we didn't invade Iraq and create a political vacuum in this volatile region, we wouldn't be having this trouble with Iran right now.
A functioning government in Iraq would have been poised to keep its enemy-Iran-in check.
Iran feels the need to develop a WMD because the US sends the message that if you don't have one, we might invade you.
Examples: Iraq and Libya.
The world would be so much safer with Ron Paul as President.
I am not a republican or democrat and do not particularly care for Obama but it is hard for me to believe the republicans are the party of Lincoln. One candidate cannot help but take money through the back door for anything, two are complete morons, one is a nut, one could not even get elected to the senate in his own state, one cannot keep his hands off women and the last one isn't even liked by his own party. These people make Obama look like Lincoln. I don't even have to identify who they are.
Why is it that every wimp, every insecure idiot who runs for or gets elected President can't wait to start a war and every strong, self assured person tries to avoid wars? Ike wanted to avoid war. JFK fought to reduce nuclear testing. They were strong, self assured people. On the other hand, you had George Bush, who had a fake swagger to convice himself that he had character and people such as Rick Sanatorium, who is Howdy Doody, want war.
This Santorum couldn't even get re-elected a second term in Pennsylvania because he was such an idiot extremist, so why is this fool running for President????
He's another Damn Fricking War Monger who needs to go pick up a gun himself and do his own damn dirtywork... Typical Chickenhawk Repug.....
Why is Santorum running for president? My guess -- it's his audition for his gig on Fox. Running for president or even hinting at running can be a very profitable venture. Look at Mike Huckabee or Bubbles Palin. Both made millions by running.
What's nice about all this is that it keeps obama guessing who he will have to defend against. He's already spent a couple million just attacking everyone. Why people got so desperate to elect him in the first place is what needs to be addressed.
Set the political crap aside and look who will work to make this country great again. Is it obama? Absolutely not. He's shown what he's made of. Paul? No. Newt? No. Romney? Possibly. Santorum? Probably. All the rest are not even likely to make it past New Hampshire.
how, exactly, will santorum "make this country great again"? what are his magic ideas? Its certainly not support of science, for example. What is his vision to deal with globalization? He was a strong supporter of the iraq war, which most certainly didn't help "make us great again".
But he does have strong views of homosexuality, that's key to our greatness. or not.
By the way, the longer that the GOP candidates tear themselves apart, this is good for obama, not bad for him. Obama would love for santorum (or anyone else) to keep the GOP nomination in play, so that they have to spend all their time, money, and energy fighting themselves.
"What's nice about all this is that it keeps obama guessing who he will have to defend against."
Dream on. The nominee is going to be Romney and anyone with a brain knows that's been the case for at least the last 2 years. He is the only one in this bunch of worthless candidates the Republicans are floating with even the slightest chance of winning.
My money is on RON PAUL for President in 2012.
Well Hannibel -- do put all of it on Paul -- unless you don't have much to begin with.
Quoting Ron Paul as saying the country would be better off with Jim Crow Laws was no "mistake". You need to do better than correcting the text, you need to make a public apology. It's one thing putting your spin on all the coverage, it's another to blatantly smear a candidate by misquoting him on a racially charged issue. Shame on you.
The one good thing that may come out of this Iowa deal is the end of Newt Gingrich as a political player. He will probably go back to Fox and keep spreading his fear and lies there but at least we won't have to see his fat mug on every network every evening.
Iowa professor says state full of 'waste-toids and meth addicts'
This from another banner headline story.
Willard worked for a company that is named after the arch-villain in the upcoming Dark Knight Rises film.
:)
Ron Paul stated the government creates racial tensions. Obviously, he must know first hand for the government he refers to is his employer and fruit never falls far from the tree.