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Subscribe to RSSSurging in the polls, former Sen. Rick Santorum talks Tuesday's Iowa caucuses, President Obama and foreign policy.
NBC's Domenico Montanaro reports on the ad race in Iowa, why Santorum's making his move, and how undecided voters might break on Election Night.
Breaking down the Des Moines Register poll… How Santorum and Romney could end up winning Tuesday’s caucuses… Santorum’s appearance on “Meet the Press”… Paul’s appearance on CNN… The campaigning continues, even on New Year’s Day… And DNC tries to seize on the Bain Capital issue.
DES MOINES, IA -- The Des Moines Register’s poll last night became the third-straight survey in the past week to show the same storylines in the GOP presidential contest in Iowa -- Mitt Romney in the lead (but not above 25%), Ron Paul a close second, and Rick Santorum surging in third place. The numbers from the poll conducted Dec. 27-30 of 602 likely caucus-goers: Romney 24%, Paul 22%, Santorum 15%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 11%, and Bachmann 7%. But get this about Santorum’s surge: In the Des Moines Register’s final two days in the field, he jumped into second place and was running neck and neck with Romney. “[Santorum] averaged 10 points after the first two nights of polling, but doubled that during the second two nights. Looking just at the final day of polling, he was just one point down from Romney’s 23 percent on Friday.”
*** How Santorum and Romney can win: Bottom line: You can see how Santorum might be able to win this thing, especially if Perry and Gingrich supporters decide to go with the former Pennsylvania senator. What’s more, Santorum appears to have crossed a viability threshold, with just 6% of likely caucus-goers in the poll finding him the least electable in a general election. Indeed, Santorum’s closing TV ad in Iowa plays up his electability, calling him the “trusted conservative who gives us the best chance to take back America.” On the other hand, you once again see how Romney can win the Iowa caucuses -- with 25% or less -- because the conservative vote gets divided up.
*** Other numbers in the poll: 51% of likely caucus-goers surveyed in the poll said their minds were made up, while 41% said they could still be persuaded. Also, Gingrich was seen as the most knowledgeable (41% said that) and Bachmann the least knowledgeable (26%); Ron Paul was the most consistent (35%), and Gingrich and Romney the least consistent (36% and 24%, respectively); Romney the most electable in a general election (48%), Paul and Bachmann the least electable (29% and 28%); and Bachmann, Paul, and Santorum the best able to relate to Iowans (all tied at 20%), and Romney and Gingrich the least able to relate to Iowans (26% each).
*** Santorum on “Meet the Press”: One of the more fascinating parts of Rick Santorum’s appearance on “Meet the Press” this morning was his talk about having to accept compromise -- for example on abortion -- to get where you want to go. “I supported the Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act," he said. "Now does that ban all abortions? No. But it moves the country in the right direction. And so what I've said in the past consistently is I'll support laws that move the ball forward.” He went on to say, “Of course my background is to find compromise. That's what you have to do in order to get things done. You don't compromise on your principles.” The word “compromise” might not sit well with some conservatives; then again, it highlights a sense of pragmatism not often associated with Santorum. NBC’s David Gregory also asked Santorum about his endorsement for Romney in 2008 and what has changed since then. His answer: “Well, what changed was who he's running against... I made the political judgment, right or wrong, that the best chance to stop John McCain, which was what my concern was, I had served 12 years with John McCain.”
*** Paul talks Civil Rights Act, Iran, and third-party bid: Meanwhile, on CNN this morning, Paul was asked about his opposition to the 1964 Civil Rights Act. He said the country was better off without Jim Crow laws, but said the Civil Rights Act “destroyed the principle of private property and private choices.” He added that it creates the slippery slope of the government coming into people’s bedrooms. “It is the government that causes so much of the racial tensions,” he said. On Iran and it acquiring nuclear weapons: “I don’t want them to have a weapon… We just need to be more cautious… We don’t need a war in Iran carelessly.” And Paul once again didn’t rule out a third-party presidential bid, if he doesn’t become the GOP nominee. “I don’t like absolutes,” he said. “I have no plans on doing it.” Paul added, “On Tuesday, we’ll find out a lot more on the future of this election.” *** EDITOR'S NOTE *** This item mistakenly said earlier today that Paul had said the country was better "with" Jim Crow laws. That was a typo and has since been fixed. He said that the country was better off "without" Jim Crow laws.
*** On the trail: With two days until the caucuses, all of today’s New Year’s Day activity is in Iowa: Bachmann attends church in Oskaloosa… Gingrich holds events in Ames, Marshalltown, and Waterloo… Perry attends church in West Des Moines… Romney stumps in Atlantic and Council Bluffs… And Santorum holds rallies in Sioux City and Rock Rapids… Meanwhile, Jon Huntsman continues to campaign in New Hampshire… And Ron Paul, at home in Texas, is off the campaign trail.
*** DNC seizes on Bain: Also in Des Moines, IA today at 4:00 pm ET, the DNC is holding a press conference with a worker -- Randy Johnson -- who was laid off from his job at an American Pad and Paper plant in Indiana that Romney’s Bain Capital took over in 1992.
Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 2 days
Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 9 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 20 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 30 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 34 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 65 days
Countdown to Election Day: 312 days
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If Newt wins the nomination, he should do an ad with something like
"President Obama added more to the deficit last month than America did in the 4 years that I was Speaker"
"Back to Balanced Budgets. Newt 2012."
Romney is no box of chocolates but the next several suspects are major loons. Being from the Philadelphia suburbs I have familiarity with Rick and he is a scarey guy. He claims to be a Catholic but his beliefs bear no resemblence to what his religion teaches. He is a rabid anti choice guy but he and his wife had what is in fact an abortion while fighting to take the right away from everyone else. They induced a delivery at 20, weeks pre-viability, the child died as expected and they took the corpse home to introduce to the other kids and then sleep with it. Trust me this is not a typical Catholic family. He blamed sexual abuse by the clergy on the abused and advocates for intelligent design neither of which is his supposed religion's position. These are just the tip of the iceberg and he may not be as crazy as Paul or Bachmann, I wouldn't trust Gingrich and his Alternate history and ethical impairment and Perry is flat out stupid. This leaves Huntsman and Romney and the base of the party thinks they are members of a cult.
jkh
It is easy to sum up the Iowa caucuses. Paul polls high because he's anti government on everything and pro business doing anything it wants on EVERYTHING. Discrimination? Let the market decide. Segregation: Federal Laws weren't needed because business would eventually wise up and realized it was against their economic interests to do so... Housing discrimination. Perfectly legal. If a guy doesn't like a black family moving into his apartment/home to rent, well that is just his god givern captalist bigoted American right. The more you read about Paul, there less there is to like. Yes, he's right on a very small number of subjects but a broken clock is right two times a day. Romney? well really, that man is the very essence of the 1 percent. Patrician, arrogant and out of touch. He has no clue, and cares nothing for the middle class. He cares about getting elected. Gingrich. Crook and throughly bad dude. Perry? Wylie Coyote had more interesting ideas than this fool and he still hasn't caught the roadrunner. Sadly the man who has been ignored in all of this is the man with at least some class: Huntsman. I'd like to hear more from him. But of course we won't because not only did he cooperate with Obama, he worked for him as
Ambassador to China.
Glad to see all the excoriation of MSNBC for their egregious lie about what Ron Paul said in this morning's interview. Do you suppose the reporter was ashamed? I doubt it. They were just taking orders to make Paul look bad. They've fixed it now of course. Maybe they planned to fix it after the initial bad press.
Who cares about the Iowa caucus ,it's purely a media fest and another example of the corruption of our political process by excessive campaign money.
I think from the confused results that keep coming out of Iowa thet they're drinking too much of their own ethanol
I believe all the candidates can do a better job than Obama. It's sad to see how people judge candidates by perception, not knowledge. Newt Gingrich is the smartest of all the candidates but people can't seem to put his past behind him, especially with the negative ads against him this past 2 weeks. Rick Perry made one mistake in a debate and now he is labeled "stupid". Bachman? I don't know what happened there, Rick Santorum, a very smart man, is perceived as unelectable, therefore not taken seriously until very recently. Ron Paul, people perceive him as a joke and unelectable because his belief system on foreign policy is so out of the mainstream, but he has a lot to offer on the domestic front, the economy. Mitt Romney, because he has the label of flip flopper and perceived to be part of the evil 1%, uncaring, out of touch with the people. I think he has the most to offer if you read his economic plan that will fix the economy and put people back to work but unfortunately all people will see is this negative perception. I would like to urge voters to vote with your heads, not your hearts. Try to look beyond these perceptions and listen to what these candidiates have to offer. We can not afford to prioritize likeability. Look where that got us with Obama. People wanted to take a chance on him because they liked him and looked the other way when it came to his experience and associations. I hope we don't make that mistake again.
yah this is about right, except Perry sucked in a couple, three debates.
The bumble over departments was the last straw.
Duh-Patriot,you are dunk from the New Years TEA if you honestly believe any one of these so called candidates can do better than Obama . Get real in 2012 vote out the Tea party snobs. VOTE DEMOCRATIC and TAKE back the AMERICAN DREAM ! OBAMA/BIDEN 2012 HILLARY 2016
The entire GOP slate is laughable but the absolute clown class is Ron Paul. He definitely does not disappoint in that he continues to show what a crackpot he really is. His views are beyond radical. His credentials claim he is a doctor. His son (the Senatorial yahoo) also claims to be a doctor.........the truth be known I wouldn't let either one of them take a splinter out of my finger let alone examine me. One represents Texas, the home of Hutchison/DeLay/Armey/Bush and the other one represents Tennessee, the home of Bunning who voted against extending Unemployment benefits............two remarkable states: we should have let Mexico keep Texas and as for Tennessee.........you can draw your own conclusion. Santorum is bizarre and the people of Pennsylvania let him know just how much back in 2006 when he got his ass kicked in his re-election bid. I'll give him one thing..........he is very adept at using OPM (case in point when it came to educating his own kids on the internet but being able to con the taxpayers in his district in Pennsylvania into footing the bill and he didn't even live there at the time. We won't even talk about Bachmann or Perry.
ah ah ah, you missed which state Rand-y represents, even though you got the previous senator's name right from that state.
-10 pts.
And that was the difference in deciding which party would take the White House in 2012...Republican victory, wooohooo!
the media lies and the candidates lie... nothing new. but if you add the laws put forth that let washington lock us up for saying that they lie, well it just makes me sad. i saw the other day that lincoln locked up a buch of northern media types who dared oppose his war and so maybe msnbc is just trying to not get locked up by carrying the water for obama. i will tell you this, warts and all, ron paul is the only one of the bunch that dosent scare the pants off me. i guess that is why msnbc, cnn and fox are all trying to rake him over the coals. i would support journalist who do thier job but these folks are nothing but propaganda ministers and for that they will be known. i dont doubt that soon they will actually shut down most of the internet because it serves the people by letting us catch them in these lies.
Everyone in the GOP can be measured a scale of 1 to 10 (1, the worst; 10, the best) as below:
Mitt 3
Paul 2.9
Rick S 4
Newt 2.5
All Others 1.5 to 2.2
None of them would be really Presidential Material.
Ok, let's make a real scale here 1 to 10, GOP candidates
Newt Gingrich: 11 - adultery penalty = either 8 or unelectable, only options
Michelle Bachmann: 10 for ideological purity (will deport illegals) - average debater - occasional falsehoods = 8
Santorum: 8 for ideological purity - avg candidate = 7
John Huntsman: 6 for ideological purity, no other flaws = 6
Rick Perry: 8 for ideological purity - no more Texas bumblers who can't speak well = 3
Ron Paul: 10 on domestic, 0 on foreign policy/defense average = 5 and unelectable
Mitt "Flippy" "No Guts Mitt" "The Faker" Romney: 4 on ideological purity - 4 for no guts and no reliability on any issue + 2 for good hair and good family = 2
Oh yah they're running against Obama:
President Obama: 8/10 foreign policy and defense, got Bin Laden, wasted Alq propaganda guy, drone strikes, Libya success but no help for Iran rebels, our top enemy, no response to Kim Jong Il death opportunity, Fort Hood shooting, couple other small things. 1/10 domestic policy, complete failure economically, much worse effectiveness of his policy vs. Reagan's in near identical situation early 80's, little reduction in unemployment, despicable budget record
8 and 1 average to: 4.5/10
Anyone other than Paul and it is going to be the same ol' same ol' and nothing will ever change.
Why does it have to be that a couple of states will get to decide who I get to vote for?
That's basically the 53% who pay taxes waiting on the 47% who want to decide who will give the most handouts before deciding.
No, that's 51% who really made a decision based on some reason and 41% who are waiting to see who is ahead in the polls so they can say they voted for the winner. Polls should be illegal.
To Don and Tom Wilcox from page 5,
Sorry I stopped to watch the Giants kicking Dallas's ass. I had to respond to your hilarious replies. Tom you accuse me of not using facts cause I have nothing to say, and then you come back with we hate Obama because he's black? AAAHahahahaha.........I listed 3 facts that you danced around in your usual liberal way. Obama is NOT getting us out of Iraq. He is merely following the Bush directive. And to that you answer, we never should have been there. The classic "change the subject when you're wrong" move out of the liberal playbook. Don, you're just a flat liar. Guess what genius, the CBO does not score how many jobs a bill will or will not create. Never has. There job is only to give their best estimate of the dollar cost to the tax payer. So your assertion about Republican jobs bills sitting on Harry Reids desk have been scored for job creation, is a lie.
Glass Steagal was repealed by Bill Clinton. Thanks Slick! And it was written to keep banks out of the investment business. It has nothing to do with Wallstreet regulations. Wrong again Einstein. Yes I know Republicans proposed the bill, but Clinton should have vetoed it.
Your flat wrong on Wallstreet donations. While both parties receive donations, Obama IS documented as having received the most contributions from Wallstreet in HISTORY !!! Look it up and stop telling lies and blathering on about subjects you know nothing about.
I could further shred your replies but this is a good game. Hope you come back and read this. And by all means, respond with more BS for me to laugh at.
Dear Voters,
Mitt Romney will NEVER be elected in a Christian country. Mormonism has the stigma of being a cult. A misled group of people that are not really what they profess themselves to be.
For this reason alone Romneys entire elections campaign staff are wasting their time on an unelectable candidate and the worst part of it they are taking up valuable time that the public should be receiving to meet a person that will get Obama out of the White House. There are NO black Mormons !!!!!!!!!! How could he win????? We need to focus on the electable person and get ready for a president that can begin the repairs that need to be done to fix the mistakes Obama has made.
Have you not been reading? If his religion is so relevant why he consistently at the top of the polls and why does he poll to be the best candidate to beat Barack Obama? People won't care about his religion. They want the best and most qualified candidate to fix this economy and put people back to work. I believe Mitt Romney will get the nomination and will beat Barack Obama, period!
I hope you are wrong about Romney winning but right about Obama losing.
I do not think I am, if he is the best candidate to beat Obama then my vote will be for Mitt Romney. I need to go with the most electable and as much as people do not like to admit it, he is the one. Obama must go and Romney is the best shot of all the candidates. I like his economic plan and I think he will do a good job, far better than Obama.
swami, they've polled the issue and back when they were fishing for a non-existent racist white voting block against Obama, they found overwhelming majorities who said it didn't matter if someone was black or Mormon or a woman. Mormon was lower than black on people who said they would vote for one, but it was still like 70-something% who said it didn't matter.
Mitt's religion is irrelevant for nearly all voters, the fact that he is a Taxachusetts liberal who will side with Democrats half the time and appoint liberal pro-abortion Supreme Court justices is the problem.
As most pundits will tell you, the Iowa caucus is the road to nowhere. Whoever wins it, usually does nothing afterwards.
The big story will be who drops out after Iowa. My guess is Bachman, & Huntsman.
Can't be Huntsman dropping out because he's always put all his hopes on New Hampshire.
Might be right about Bachmann (the only candidate who will not give at least some amnesty to illegal scum), because this is pretty much her only shot. She might try to hold out for S. Carolina though.
How can anyone but Ron Paul have a chance in hell against Obama...?
Ron Paul is the only one who has a strong base of loyal troops that will rally and get out the vote.
He's the only one who can "Rock the Vote,"
Seriously, is anyone enough of a moron to believe that people will turn out in droves to vote for Romney or Santorum in the general election...? It's just not going to happen... They can't rock the vote like Obama can.
Only Paul has the "rock-it" capabilities. He can strike a "movement." None of those other boring lame-tards can.
The repugnicans are going to bring us another 4 years of Obama by nominating with their selfish hearts rather than with their minds....
Ron Paul certainly does have the most loyal base but unfortunately for him, not large enough to carry him in a general election.
So you think people are going to storm the streets to vote for Romney...? Especially when he's boring, has virtually the same "big government" philosophy and health care stance as Obama, and his own party don't particularly want his autograph...?
Remember who the opponent is... Smooth talking Obama. Whether you like him or not, you'd be a moron not to admit he's a charm with words...
No, I don't think most people are going to storm the streets to vote for him, I know people have great reservations about him, but like I said before, people will realize that he is the most electable against Obama and in all fairness, he does come across as polished and articulate as Obama, if anything, he will bring more knowledge and better ideas to the table than Barack Obama so I think he has a great shot in beating him because I have to believe that people do not want another 4 years of the same.
Nope Believe it, he has a hard core of fanatics who believe in the tooth fairy and Bush did 9/11. They're loud, they make themselves seem like more than they are, but to date they've never ever ever won even one primary because there aren't enough of them who think the US is the anti-Christ on foreign policy, and etc etc.
Maybe Iowa will be the first time RP's fans actually win something. Maybe. But then, only because it's a caucus. Statewide where all the GOP primary voters vote in a primary, I doubt he'll ever win anything, just like last time.
I read all these posts about the candidates and I get really frustrated. I said from the beginning that Obama is a really good orator but president he shouldn't be, I got accused of being racist from my own family. You can pick the GOP candidates to shreds but Obama hasn't started talking his talk yet. I just dont' have much confidence in the general public seeing through it this time either. I mean he drones the crap out of other countries, even kills a political person in another country and you see one excerpt one day. He kills 2 US citizens in another country without trial and very little is said. He votes to ursurp the American citizens right to trial, that seems to be ok too. They are voting to increase national dept another 1.2 trillion and no end in sight, and that is ok too. There's not even any point in going into the bin laden event (he did not have permission from Pakistan to go in and do that). Why does he think he can send drones in anywhere in the world under the guise of terrorists? Why are we antagonizing Iran, it wasn't that long ago we were good friends with Iran, I know Israel (they don't even want us there). From what I see the american people are demonized by other countries because we keep electing people that think we're the police of the world. Well, we're broke because of it and noone seems to want to do anything about it. Congress has gotten richer while the rest have gotten poorer, what's so hard to understand??? How anyone can defend Obama as president is beyond me!
As far as Newt is concerned why is he even allowed to run for president considering he already broke the law when he was in Congress before! The question I have about Romney is why do his kids look older than him? The rest are status quo. Ron Paul at least sees what's wrong and wants to give our freedom back, I wonder has anyone considered that the reason he says things about the governement is because he's been in the government, has anyone considered that he's holding back information because the American people can'nt handle the complete truth, I mean look at what they say about him as it is!
Why does Ron Paul want to turn your Bill of Rights over to individual states with no SCOTUS oversight?
I agree, the States have already proven they can't seem to get it together, that's the reason we have the Feds in our lives already and have had the oportunity to take our freedoms away. I don't believe going the way we are right now is the answer though. Taking back has got to start somewhere. Where do you suggest. Voting for the status guo or voting for someone to get another direction started.
Leave.
Romney in First, Santorum polls in third. (please ignore second Ron Paul, he gets the most support from the military, independents, democrats, conservatives, constitutionalists, and tea partiers, but he's unelectable, and thus, the establishment prefers he not be discussed).
Why does Ron Paul favor abolishing the USA to form 50 individual states?
Why can't he remember who wrote his racist/homophobic newletters with his name printed on them?
And why do you think the states shouldn't have more power over what happens to their citizenry?
And do you remember every single thing that happened ten years ago I know i don't. On top of time he was more involved in a medical practice, i couldn't imagine how time consuming that is to micro manage a side publishing biz.
Uhhh.... He is somewhat of a celebrity you know... Do you think movie stars, famous people, including presidents know everything written about them, and even everything that people attach their names to...? Did he sign these so called newsletters that you are talking about...?
Chuck Norris has newsletters in his name but he says he doesn't write anymore... So What....?
Chuck Norris? LOL
the acronym for IOWA stands true: Idiots Out Walking Around. Enough said.
Ron Paul wrote most of that racist drivel. It was written in the first person, for God's sake. If Paul supporters who doubt this were intellectually honest they would want to find out; since they don't it shows that they don't want to know!!!
Ok lets go with your media fed opinion and lets just say he's a racist (all points to the contrary) do you not get what a libertarian is. Its not like if hes a racist and gets in he is gonna start making laws to re instate slavery or segregated drinking fountains because that would be more big government.
not to mention his entire time in congress he hasn't tried to pass one single racist piece of legislation.
Written in the so-called "first-person" don't mean Jack when you are a celebrity, famous, or the like... People say they are so-and-so all the time.... Who can't imagine that it is all the more so with celebrities and controversial people.
Show me the real signature of Paul signing those documents...
.
Its confusing to me that everyone says the economy the number one issue but it seems most people including the candidates biggest stance is continuing wars particularly with Iran. So left and right the only concern is war. And if that is your line in the sand the idea although stupid (recklessly attack over a hyped and imagined threat) wouldn't be out of the question if Ron Paul was elected president, he has stated multiple times it is congress' right to declare war so if congress universally voted for it I think Ron Paul would go for it.
I got to ask if everyone (republican + democrat) is of the unilateral view that his economic and foreign policy is as the most used BUZZ word "nutty" Let me ask you where has sanity gotten us really. Has the republicans version of "sanity" kept us out of recession answer no. Has the democratic version of "sane" economics fixed the economy, nope sure hasn't. So if hes nutty hand me my tinfoil hat because sanity hasn't done me any favors.
well he's not that nutty personally, he just looks like an old man character out of an Archie comic book; the circus freaks are his fans, those Alex Jones trash.
Ole man Paul is just wrong on half his beliefs that's all.
Grasping at straws, must mean you like the way things are headed with the status quo! You can pull the racist card all the way until the drones come for you. The US is now using the drones against the american people, look it up!
Look this up.
So, because "Randy Johnson -- who was laid off from his job at an American Pad and Paper plant in Indiana that Romney’s Bain Capital took over in 1992" Romney is to blame? So what?
Is the DNC really that desperate to find something to use against Romney? Is this the best they can do? No wonder they want anybody but Romney to win the GOP nomination!
What about all the people who got hired because of Bain Capital? I guess that won't be remembered by the DNC. What a bunch of twits.
I know, I had to laugh when I read about the press conference the DNC planted to blame Romney for Randy Johnson getting laid off. If this is the best the Democrats can do to demonize Romney, then they are in big trouble this year. They have better keep digging deeper because Romney will be the eventual nominee.
Right exactly Plagued. Ron Paul is running for President, not King. Congress and the SCOTUS are still going to have their input on RP's policies. We are 15+ trillion in debt as a nation, that is equal to a 1000 stacks of a billion dollars multiplied by 15! Good grief people!!! This should be our first and foremost concern. If a balanced federal budget, ending ALL foreign aid and entanglements, and NEVER voting against the Constitution is considered nutty, hand me my one way ticket to the funny farm, and i'll take my tinfoil hat as a parting gift. Ron Paul is the best choice BY FAR, warts and all.
Interesting....