First Thoughts: Three days to go

Special weekend edition of First Thoughts… The moving parts we’re watching: Des Moines Register poll unveiled at 8:00 pm ET, and candidates campaign in IA and NH… Observations from the ground in Iowa… And observations from watching Santorum’s surge… Divided conservative endorsements… The Perry blame game begins… Obama White House wants to keep its distance from Congress… Santorum to appear on “Meet” tomorrow… And Happy New Year!

DES MOINES, IA -- Good morning and welcome to our weekend edition of First Thoughts. With three days until the Iowa caucuses, here are all the moving parts we’re watching today: The Des Moines Register, which nailed the eventual Dem outcome in ’08, is set to release its final poll before the caucuses at 8:00 pm ET. (Will it show the same results as the last two Iowa polls, or something different?) On the campaign trail, all the GOP presidential candidates are spending their entire day in Iowa with three exceptions -- Ron Paul is in Texas for the holiday weekend, Mitt Romney begins his day in New Hampshire before heading back to Iowa, and Jon Huntsman spends his whole day in the Granite State.

*** Observations from the ground: After talking to Iowa Republicans at Romney and Rick Perry events in the Hawkeye State, you realize that there are still A LOT of undecided voters. They like many of the candidates, and wish they could take the good aspects of each and make into the perfect nominee -- Romney’s business experience, Perry’s straight-talking persona, Santorum’s strong conservatism, Bachmann’s fighting spirit, and Gingrich’s intellect and grasp of history. Most of those who spoke with First Read have it down to two or three. Those thinking about voting for Romney are concerned about a Paul win or the chances of beating Obama in November, but there isn’t a lot of enthusiasm for him (even though he’s getting big crowds). For those thinking about Perry or Santorum, they like their values. And for the people who were once leaning toward Gingrich, they are now pushing away. At both the Perry and Romney events, Iowans said he has too much “baggage” and has “spent too much time in Washington.” (Sounds like those attack ads resonated, no?)

*** Observations from watching Santorum’s surge: As one of us spent the day with Santorum yesterday, it was fascinating to watch. He was clearly relishing the moment with the media throng now following him and the Iowa voters turning up to see him. And just look at the coverage he is now receiving. From the Washington Post: “In politics as in life, timing is everything. And if the former senator from Pennsylvania is finally having his moment, it couldn’t have come at a better time.” The Boston Globe: “Rick Santorum, riding a late tailwind that has moved him up in the polls, is suddenly a hot commodity on the campaign trail.” And Time: “Surging in Iowa, Santorum Revels in Newfound Attention.” 

*** Divided conservative endorsements: Yesterday’s NBC-Marist poll wasn’t the only evidence of how Iowa conservatives are divided -- creating the path for a Romney victory here in the Hawkeye State. So were yesterday’s endorsements. Last night, per NBC’s Alex Moe, conservative radio host Steve Deace announced he was backing Gingrich. “It is my prayer that next year that for once we actually have something to vote for, and not just something to vote against. I am making this endorsement in the hopes that will be the case,” Deace wrote. Earlier in the day, however, Iowa radio host Simon Conway announced that he will support Perry, citing his leadership during 11 years as the governor of Texas, NBC’s Carrie Dann reports. "It's his executive experience that put him over the top for me," Conway said on his program on popular conservative talk station WHO-AM.

*** The Perry blame game begins: While Perry has moved up in the latest NBC-Marist poll of Iowa, Politico writes that the new team of Perry advisers and consultants are blaming the old team for Perry’s stumbles. “Perry’s steep plunge from frontrunner to butt of jokes was chiefly the result of his own embarrassing verbal stumbles, most notably his insta-classic ‘oops’ moment when he couldn’t recall the names of the cabinet departments he wants to eliminate. Yet the view of the outsiders who took over Perry’s campaign is that the candidate was set up for failure by an insular group led by Dave Carney, the governor’s longtime political guru, which thought they could run a presidential campaign like a larger version of a gubernatorial race and didn’t take the basic steps needed to professionalize the operation until the candidate was already sinking.” Ouch.

*** Obama in 2012: Keeping his distance from Congress: And turning away from Iowa and to the team at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. (or in Hawaii), NBC’s Kristen Welker reports that the Obama White House is in the process of distancing itself -- and contrasting itself -- from Congress. Speaking from Honolulu, where the president is vacationing, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said, “We ended 2011 with the president basically rolling out, over the course of the last two months of the year about 20 different "We Can't Wait" initiatives,” he said, referring to the small-scale initiatives aimed at jumpstarting the economy. “You have an image of a gridlocked, dysfunctional Congress, [versus] a president who's leaving no stone unturned.” Earnest also said, "In terms of the president's relationship with Congress in 2012 … the president is no longer tied to Washington, D.C."  

*** Obama next week: Welker adds that Obama is planning to address his supporters -- via video-conference -- on the night of the Iowa caucuses and will travel to the battleground state of Ohio the very next day, a clear indication that he will not be sitting on the sidelines during the Republican primary contests.

*** Santorum on “Meet the Press”: A reminder that Rick Santorum will sit down with NBC’s David Gregory tomorrow on “Meet the Press.” 

*** Happy New Year! Whether you’re in Iowa, in New Hampshire, or at home with family and friends, have a happy and safe New Year!

Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 3 days
Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 10 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 21 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 31 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 35 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 66 days
Countdown to Election Day: 313 days

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There is ony one republican candidate with a chance of beating Obama and you righties won't even give him the time of day. Why don't you nominate Huntsman? I know he's much too centrist for you but I thought NOTHING was more important than ousting Obama. Obama is a communist, socialist, marxist, muslim terrorist who's out to completely destroy America and hand over the scraps to the Taliban. For god's sake, how can you not put in the guy who has the best chance of beating him, no matter how centrist he may be?

    Reply#55 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:50 PM EST
    Reply

    How can anybody still support Obama?

    ATF selling guns to Mexican drug cartel scandal

    Solyndra scandal

    failed stimulus plan, no shovel ready jobs

    cash for clunkers, homebuyer credit

    8.6% unemployment, really 16% if using the BLS U6 the way it used to be reported

    Home values still falling

    1 out of 6 americans on food stamps

    MFS John Corzine scandal, account holders had $1.2 BILLION DOLLARS STOLEN FROM THEM! Nothing happening.

    Did not repeal Patriot act, now we have NDAA any american can be held indefinitely, or killed with no due process.

    Free trade deals with South Korea, Vietnam, and Panama

    Gitmo still open, a war in Libya, troops advising in Uganda.

    Adding 4 Trillion to national debt with no end in sight.

    Nothing done to fix the problems that created the financial crisis in 2008

    The list goes on, and on. Quite a list of accomplishments to run on. Think the country will survive 4 more years? I seriously doubt it.

    • 1 vote
    Reply#58 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:56 PM EST

    How do you fix problems when half the government obstructs everything you try to do? Are really that thick in the head... oh, thats right, you enjoy all the toxic right wing behavior. Todays GOP is the biggest problem this country faces! And as many problems this country has right now, the American people are finally opening their eyes and seeing how badly they have behaved. Even with a bad economy, Obama will be re-elected!

    • 1 vote
    #58.2 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:08 PM EST

    I'm not so sure they ARE opening their eyes Susan. Polls still show Obama and Romney to be a close race.

      #58.3 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:14 PM EST

      Ummm, we haven't even got through the Iowa caucuses yet, much less all the other primaries across the country. Let us not bet the rent money yet on Romney even being the nominee. I do however, believe the GOP establishment will do everything in their power to see that he does end up the nominee. It is hard to imaging yet another silver spoon rich boy giving a damn about the working people of this country! You see, there are alot more of us than millionaires like Willard. Time will tell...

      • 3 votes
      #58.4 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:21 PM EST

      The debt crisis is a deliberate creation of the GOP over 30 years! See above!!

        #58.5 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:47 PM EST
        Reply

        I hate politics

          Reply#59 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:13 PM EST

          Did you get lost?

          • 1 vote
          #59.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:14 PM EST

          I don't really like politics much either Sherbud but the right is so incredibly extreme and dangerous, and so many Americans are ready to destroy their own country by enabling them, it's too fascinating not to watch.

            #59.2 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:18 PM EST

            I know I just don't understand why so many politicians have to lie and to dumb crap. We need an honest person in office whose willing to put our country and people 1st, not to make money for themselves...before people start commenting, I'm not pointing fingers, I'm just saying that as a whole.

              #59.3 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:21 PM EST
              Reply

              It is hard to watch my party (GOP) keep pushing people that can't get elected (outside of this part of the election) and ignore a real conservative with a great record. Huntsman will unify the extreme GOP with the moderate and even get many Democrats to come on board... A sad day for us to not support him.

              • 2 votes
              Reply#60 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:15 PM EST

              These days, if you don't think Obama is a muslim terrorist and don't want to force women to bear their rapist's children, you aren't conservative!

                #60.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:39 PM EST
                Reply

                Actually Susanmarie,

                It seems the Republican controlled House has sent many bills that have been crafted and passed in the House, on to the Senate.

                The Senate does nothing. These bills are shelved by Harry Reid and never even discussed. This is obstructionism taken to the n'th degree. This is not how our Congress is supposed to work. These bills should be discussed in the Senate, re-written, voted upon, and then sent back to the House. When they can't reach an agreement through this process, the two chambers then form a committee and hash it out.

                That's the process. Harry Reid should be recalled.

                • 2 votes
                Reply#61 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:18 PM EST

                Actually Joseph,

                There was a bipartisan agreement over the payroll tax in the Senate. But, as usally the house held things up. J. Bonehead was pretty forced to take care of business. Of course, that was proceded by the usual GOP grand standing. Again, the right wing brand of stupid and hateful is toxic to this country! It is not necessary you agree.

                • 3 votes
                #61.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:36 PM EST

                Exactly Susan, Joseph, you really can't see that it is the TPers in the house who won't allow the conservatives to come to the middle?

                  #61.2 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:42 PM EST

                  Well that is just weak and pathetic! Some spines and other parts need to be grown by those who were elected to represent the PEOPLE! These arrogant jerks forget they are suppose to work for us!

                    #61.3 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:44 PM EST

                    Susanmarie,

                    Wasn't the house bill passed first,and then sent on to the Senate?? Whatever happened to it?? Was it discussed and voted on?? And wasn't that House bill for an extension of one year as Obama requested??

                    Now we have to go through all this again in three months?? Who's the obstructionist??

                    Get it?? One year vs. three months??

                    • 2 votes
                    #61.4 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:55 PM EST

                    Apparently, the whole picture escapes you, Joe! Have your eyes and ears been open at all for the past ten years?! Toxic.

                      #61.5 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:19 PM EST
                      Reply

                      "Texas Fixes Whatz Rong with Amurican Hiztury Textbooks" et al.

                      www.voicesnet.org/displayonepoem.aspx?poemid=174456

                      Just you'ns wait! A Prezident Perry will fix everythang - and everyonez?

                      • 1 vote
                      Reply#62 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:21 PM EST

                      Leona every time you blog you put a twisted spin of logic on your comments, if you can explain why you are so against President Obama trying to help even the playing field when it is painfully apparent the gop candidates are only interested in helping the 1% who could care less about you, me or anybody for that matter i will try to wrap my brain around your response. With these candidates actions and comments of the past what part of i don't give a flying flip about you that you do not understand? What has fox news done to you to make hate without pure reason and have no facts to back up your hate of President Obama? If you are a die hard teapublican or a christain evangelical conservative that would explain alot about your ideas and why it is so important that you try to make everyone think like you. The last time i checked it was not a crime to have your own ideas and mind and to think freely on your own.

                      • 3 votes
                      Reply#63 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:21 PM EST

                      New figures from the National JEP Poll show that Mitt Romney will defeat Obama in a landslide of historic proportions.

                      Insiders are also predicting a resulting dramatic change in favor of the GOP across the board. Both houses of congress and many state and local races.

                      • 1 vote
                      Reply#64 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:23 PM EST

                      I hope you are right about that poll, Love, all the polls I have seen show Obama and Romney very close in the general.

                        #64.2 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:43 PM EST

                        Gotcha Love and politics.

                        What do you think the National JEP poll is?? It's the Joseph E. Parent poll......where I ask myself what I think. That's the poll. LOL

                        • 2 votes
                        #64.3 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:44 PM EST
                        Reply

                        If any of these paranoid narcissists with delusions of grandeur get elected, the USA will be at a grave disadvantage compared to nations with intelligent leaders.

                        • 1 vote
                        Reply#65 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:35 PM EST

                        So true RL. If elected the GOP will finish this country off.

                          #65.2 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:42 PM EST

                          Love and politics,

                          You just described why you will never be rich. "a fool and his/her money are soon parted"

                          • 1 vote
                          #65.3 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:46 PM EST
                          Reply

                          Re post, This was on the radio as I was driving through Tenn. I have a new found respect for Adam Corolla

                          www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJD8pZiRIzs

                          • 1 vote
                          Reply#66 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:37 PM EST

                          Who cares?

                          • 1 vote
                          #66.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:40 PM EST

                          flash bang pop pop! Oh what a relief it is! My goat tops your cwazy wabbit wad boy!

                          • 1 vote
                          #66.2 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:22 PM EST
                          Reply

                          "Iowa Remains Fluid" ---- Too much Kool Aid

                            Reply#67 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:39 PM EST

                            Don't waste your time or VOTE on Ron Paul!

                              Reply#68 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:44 PM EST

                              Ron Paul --- The Rip Van Winkle of Big Government,,,, He hasn't done anything for libertarians in 35 years

                              Not even "Libertarians" like Paul's crazy ideas

                                #68.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:45 PM EST
                                Reply

                                Anyone else notice how the neo-nuts on these comedy pages even try to blame Obama for the turds hangin' from their butts, or, why they have an unhappy ex-lover?

                                They try to wind some tired talkin' point into their comment of..."it happened on Obama's watch"...or, some similar whine, knowing he had nothin' to do with it! So pathetic...!

                                BTW: Obama/Biden win again in 2012! No doubt!!

                                  Reply#70 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:47 PM EST

                                  Wow C_D_J,

                                  Very classy post. About what I would expect from the libs I guess.

                                  • 2 votes
                                  #70.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:02 PM EST

                                  May not have been classy, but it was very true!

                                    #70.2 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:21 PM EST
                                    Reply

                                    I have to ask myself. If it is assured that Obama will win in November, why are there so many libbies spouting their usual rubbish every day?? What's the point?? Go play golf or drink some beer. Don't worry about a thing.

                                    • 1 vote
                                    Reply#71 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:48 PM EST

                                    Joseph,,,, The 1st Amendment doesn't just apply for conservatives no matter what they've told you

                                    Your problem is pandemic among conservatives ---- You are afraid of the truth

                                    OBAMA/BIDEN 2012 ---- The team that really cares for America's Families & not just the rich

                                    • 1 vote
                                    #71.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:50 PM EST

                                    Yea! The United States Constitution and All Amendments apply to everyone in the World, according to the Liberals. You Liberals are a pathetic bunch of posters.

                                    • 3 votes
                                    #71.2 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:53 PM EST

                                    Want to be rich?.......... Work for it you lazy low-lifes! Do you know the word "Work?" Or do you want a Government hand out? Have your Obama ask China for another loan. He's good at spending money we don't have. Some of you here are sooo stupid!

                                    • 3 votes
                                    #71.3 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 6:00 PM EST
                                    Reply

                                    In my opinion. The news media, liberal or conservative, want's every election race to be a close race. There isn't a race in the country in my living memory that wasn't sold to us as a very close race. When the race actually finishes, many of the candidates get trounced, as do many issues. If it's a close race, then it's big news. This perpetuates the news cycle, garners more viewers and ups the cost of advertising. Money, money, money.

                                    But of course, a perceived close race can easily drive people to vote. Which is not a bad thing, I suppose.

                                    My point is a simple one: I believe news about an election is hyped, thus we are being lied too.

                                    • 2 votes
                                    Reply#72 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:50 PM EST

                                    I'm so sick of them all already MSNBC. So much for all that so-called"liberal media bias" the "right" loves to talk about constantly since as every major network is yakking about THESE clowns 24/7. Keith Olbermann, PLEASE hurry back from your vacation and give me a break from this garbage so I can watch you on Current, the only true progressive "voice" on TV.

                                    If America is "dumb again", I'll never see YOU again either as the fascists will find a way to yank you from television as indoctrination. You're all we have LEFT.

                                      Reply#73 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:00 PM EST

                                      Teresa,,,, Why are you here?

                                      Go over to Fox News, we know they can't be biased. After all it was created just for conservatives wasn't it?

                                      That was the news that conservatives wanted to hear & how they wanted to hear it if I recall

                                        #73.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:04 PM EST

                                        Ahh, Teresa, please do not tell be you think Fox has fair and accurate reporting! Too many wings nuts use those hacks as their only source of info. If that is the case for you, you are missing out on a whole lot of information!

                                          #73.2 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:23 PM EST

                                          Where are you getting I am get my info from FOX when I have made it plain I am waiting for Keith Olbermann on CURRENT to be back as the only person I trust as a true voice for PROGRESSIVES: since the rest of our media is all corporate owned by the fat cats ,incuding MSN which is WHY they show nothing but these losers 24/7 and our PResident barely gets MENTION. I got to Current TV for fair, accurate reporting of what is reall going on in these pathetic deals as so much is not shown to is and we know it. Sure wish We could a HUGE Occupy group there to be at everyone of the liar tents and mike check em ALL!!!!

                                            #73.3 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:44 PM EST

                                            Susanmarie,

                                            You need to put your brain in gear before you start to type. Use the spellchecker, and review what you have written. Yes, every time. That's a good girl. Otherwise, you come across as just another ignorant liberal.

                                            • 1 vote
                                            #73.4 - Sun Jan 1, 2012 6:56 PM EST
                                            Reply

                                            And as usual....Where is Ron Paul? Try not to mention him all you want... MSM is know to be full of it, especially recently with biased stories.

                                            • 1 vote
                                            Reply#74 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:07 PM EST

                                            You can't honestly say that Fox News like Paul,, can you? They'v been attacking him worst

                                            • 1 vote
                                            #74.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:09 PM EST

                                            It was so hot in L.A. today with all the car burnings, that the squirrels were grabbing their nuts with oven mitts.

                                            • 1 vote
                                            #74.2 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 6:07 PM EST
                                            Reply

                                            Brianb-999431

                                            Maybe today is a wonderful day to be a democrat, but I see some dire days ahead for the Obama faithful. When the republican candidate is chosen, after all the preliminaries and primaries, one person will stand head to head with the naysayer in chief.

                                            No No! you're confusing him with Boehner....you know the leader of the "PARTY OF NO"!!!

                                            • 1 vote
                                            Reply#75 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:07 PM EST

                                            The GOP is already issuing a "Mandate" that every conservative vote for who the party nominates

                                            And conservative bitch at too much government control? ---- They are in for a rude Revelation on a Biblical scale!

                                              #75.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:12 PM EST

                                              Jim-372206

                                              The GOP is already issuing a "Mandate" that every conservative vote for who the party nominates

                                              And conservative bitch at too much government control? ---- They are in for a rude Revelation on a Biblical scale!

                                              Really? and how are they going to do that? I've voted mostly 3rd party over the past 40 years.

                                              Yes, we are headed towards too much govt control with Obama and the rest of the Stalinist Democrats.

                                              Red Tape Rising: Obama’s Torrent of New Regulation

                                              http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/10/red-tape-rising-obamas-torrent-of-new-regulation

                                              Most Americans are painfully aware of the amount of taxes they pay. Money deducted from their paychecks, charges added at the cash register and to each restaurant bill, and checks written to the IRS serve as a constant reminder of the price of government programs. Total government revenue and spending is routinely added up and debated. Yet, explicit taxes and spending are only part of the total burden that government places on Americans. The rest comes in the form of hidden taxes imposed by government regulations. These "regulatory taxes" appear on no budget or balance sheet, but are very real--costing Americans an estimated $1 trillion or more each year.

                                              These costs are increasing. In fiscal year 2009, new regulations costing more than $13 billion per year were adopted by the Bush and Obama Administrations, the highest annual total since 1992.

                                              http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/03/red-tape-rising-regulation-in-the-obama-era

                                              Below is a comprehensive list of the two dozen new or higher taxes that pay for Obamcare’s expansion of government spending and interference between doctors and patients.

                                              http://www.atr.org/comprehensive-list-tax-hikes-obamacare-a5758

                                              Overall, Obamacare has increased government control of Americans’ health care choices and limited consumer choice. The more than 1,000 waivers already granted tacitly acknowledge that Obamacare’s “benefits” are not worth its costs.

                                              Obamacare has increased government control of Americans’ health care choices, raised the cost of insurance, forced insurers to stop offering child-only policies, broken the promise that an individual can keep his insurance unaltered, and bailed out underfunded union early-retiree health care plans.

                                              One year later, mandating certain benefits has raised the cost of providing insurance, and this higher cost has been passed on to policyholders in the form of higher premiums. For example, Regence BlueCross BlueShield of Oregon has attributed 3.4 percentage points of its 17.1 percent rate increase to Obamacare, while Celtic Insurance Company in Wisconsin and North Carolina has attributed 9 percentage points of its 18 percent rate increase to Obamacare.[5]

                                              Obamacare has resulted in insurance companies exiting markets, thereby reducing consumer choice. Joshua Raskin, an analyst at Barclays Capital, has noted that it “is harder and harder for smaller plans to compete in a more regulated environment.”[14] Shortly after Obamacare was enacted, Principal Financial Group, which provided insurance to over 800,000 people, decided to stop selling health insurance. The company’s decision reflected its assessment of its ability to compete in the environment created by the law, which Principal believes harms relatively small insurers that lack “significant concentration in any one market.”[15]

                                              This regulation was well publicized because McDonald’s 30,000 employees with mini-med plans were at risk of losing coverage because of a low MLR, even with the waiver from annual limits on the plan. McDonald’s mini-med plan incurs significant administrative costs because of the high turnover rates among its employees.[16] The MLR regulation published on December 1, 2010, exempted mini-med plans from the requirement for 2011 by requiring them to meet only half of the “official” MLR. The regulation requires that these plans must submit certain figures to HHS, which HHS will use to determine whether or not to extend the waiver in 2012 and 2013.[17]

                                              HHS expects 20 states eventually to apply for MLR waivers.[18] As of March 14, 2011, Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Nevada, and New Hampshire have applied for waivers, and Maine has been granted a waiver.[19]

                                              During the debate, President Obama repeatedly assured Americans that Obamacare would not affect individuals who were satisfied with their current health insurance. Current insurance plans were supposed to be “grandfathered in” and thus protected from the numerous mandates and regulations in the health care law. In theory, an insurance plan that gains grandfathered status is not subject to the new requirements, so a plan that was offered before Obamacare could still be offered after the law’s passage.

                                              The Administration has estimated that 49 percent to 80 percent of small-employer plans, 34 percent to 67 percent of large-employer plans, and 40 percent to 67 percent of individual insurance coverage will not be grandfathered by the end of 2013.[21] Even the unaffected plans are subject to HHS’s wide discretion to deem changes in policies unacceptable. Former HHS Deputy Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation John Hoff has written that “the Administration [can] decide on an ad hoc basis, and without standards, which changes a plan can make and still remain grandfathered.”

                                              The Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services initially estimated that 375,000 individuals would enroll in the Obamacare high-risk pools by the end of 2010.[31] At the time, it was thought that the $5 billion set aside for Obamacare’s high-risk pools would be grossly inadequate. The high-risk pools may be operated by the states or the federal government, and 27 states chose to create their own risk pools. The federal government set up the risk pools in the remaining 23 states.

                                              As of February 2011, approximately 12,500 people (roughly 3 percent of the initial estimate) had obtained coverage through Obamacare’s high-risk pools.[32] The underwhelming enrollment suggests two explanations.

                                              • Experts may have significantly overestimated how many Americans were without insurance because of a preexisting condition, or

                                              • Despite generous premiums for the high-risk pool (well under the actuarially fair amount),[33] individuals either still cannot afford the premium or are simply not interested in obtaining insurance through the high-risk pool.

                                              Obamacare provides a $250 rebate to Medicare beneficiaries who fall into Part D coverage gaps (the “doughnut” hole). After paying an annual deductible of $310, seniors on Medicare Part D (the prescription drug benefit) pay 25 percent of the cost of their prescription drugs until the total bill reaches $2,830. Above $2,830, enrollees pay the full cost of their prescription drug bill until total out-of-pocket spending reaches $4,550. At that point, catastrophic coverage kicks in and enrollees pay only 5 percent of the remainder of the bill for the rest of the year. The National Council on the Aging estimates about 4 million people fall into the doughnut hole each year.[39]

                                              One year later, HHS estimates that only 3 million people[40] of the more than 46 million individuals on Medicare received rebate checks in 2010.[41] This means that the $250 rebate cost taxpayers about $750 million in 2010.

                                              http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/03/obamacare-the-one-year-checkup

                                              • 2 votes
                                              #75.2 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:22 PM EST

                                              Larry, you must be the cut and paste champion. Just come out and say that you absolutely HATE Obama. Just say it. Your not fooling anyone with your drivel anyway.

                                              • 1 vote
                                              #75.3 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:04 PM EST
                                              Reply

                                              Things are fluid because none of the candidates (except Ron Paul and Michele Bachman) have anything to say. They are simply an insubstantial ooze of power lust. Michele Bachmann is a Bronze Age, paranoid religious fanatic and Ron Paul has a few ideas that are so wild that they make his intelligent opinions not worth the risk.

                                              Of course things are still fluid. You can't build a strong foundation out of ooze.

                                                Reply#76 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:10 PM EST

                                                The GOP is already issuing a "Mandate" that every conservative vote for who the party nominates

                                                And conservative bitch at too much government control? ---- They are in for a rude Revelation on a Biblical scale!

                                                • 2 votes
                                                Reply#77 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:13 PM EST

                                                The Bush/Obama tax cuts have nothing to do with outsouring. It is corporate tax rates that could have been manipulated to prevent it.

                                                Imaging f there were tax credits for companies that added jobs in the USA and tax surcharges for copanies that disproportionally created jobs overseas? That's where the focus needs to go. Not on personal tax rates.

                                                  Reply#80 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:24 PM EST

                                                  Willard is seriously lacking in any zippity do da! All his flip flops will come back to haunt him!!

                                                    Reply#81 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:25 PM EST

                                                    Ron Paul wants to end the wars, bring liberties and freedoms back to America, and bring back sound money the economy is the biggest issue. We are trillions upon trillions in debt and Ron Paul is the only one who will fix our economy. The rest of the world is trying to get out of the US dollar and start trading in other currencys (because the Feds keep printing more money making it inflated) so the dollar will no longer be the worlds reserve currency and prices of everything will sky rocket.

                                                    Ron Paul's top 3 donors.
                                                    Us Air Force 23,437.00
                                                    U.S. Army 23,053.00
                                                    U.S. Navy 16,973.00

                                                    Romney's top 3 donors.

                                                    Goldman Sachs 354,700.00
                                                    Credit Suisse Group 195,250.00
                                                    Morgan Stanley 185,800.00

                                                    • 2 votes
                                                    Reply#82 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:25 PM EST

                                                    There is a whole lot more he would like to do.... research folks. Tread carefully, look for the bigger agenda!

                                                      #82.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:39 PM EST

                                                      OK, I'll bite. A few questions about Ron Paul:

                                                      1. What will Ron Paul do to ensure that state governments do not infringe upon individual rights and liberties, given that he seems intent on removing Federal protections for the same? I mean, let's accept that Ron Paul is not a racist or a bigot or a homophobe. Why do racists, bigots, and homophobes like his agenda so much? And if his agenda empowers racists, bigots and homophobes, then isn't that something inherently wrong with it?

                                                      2. Doesn't Ron Paul want to end the dollar as we know it? If he does take us back to a gold standard and eliminates the dollar as a world reserve currency, then what will protect Americans from global fluctuations in commodity prices like gold and oil which are far more prone to bubble/burst scenarios than major currencies?

                                                      3. What will Ron Paul do to actually fix the economy? By fix, I specifically mean get it growing at an increased pace that creates enough jobs to lower the unemployment rate significantly. Ending the Fed, returning to the gold standard, and slashing federal spending are all unlikely to help the overall economy grow or to create jobs. Paul's proposals really are more like economic armageddon: blow the entire system up and start over. Or rather, let completely unregulated private banks and corporations start over and just trust that they'll do all the right things.

                                                      • 2 votes
                                                      #82.2 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:45 PM EST

                                                      Ron Paul wants to return power to the states yes. There is more freedom at the state level than there is at Federal government. The states do not have the right to infringe upon the peoples freedoms or liberties. If the states tried something like that not only would they have to answer to the Federal government but also to the people of their state and the rest of the population for it. He does not support states being able to infringe on peoples liberties and freedoms he hugely stresses the importance of such and the individual. We have a Constitution which the Federal government has completely disregarded and trashed Ron Paul will restore it because unlike the rest he actually cares about it and has read it. If you think he is a racist or homophobic you have a problem. Where you get this idea that racist and homophobes like his agenda I don't know you must have pulled it out your @$$. He stresses the importance of the individual unlike the rest. Many people who are gay and of other races like him because he believes the government has no place in marrage and he does not put people into collectives, racists and homophobes don't like those things they want an amendment banning gay marriage and the government putting people in groups not seeing them as individuals. He has support from Conservatives, liberals, Republicans, Democrats, independents and libertarians.

                                                      Ron Paul does want to take us back to the gold standard but he does not want to get rid of the dollar as the world reserve currency as you imply. In fact the reason the world is trying to get rid of it is because of the debt we have the endless inflation that is making our money worthless. Returning to the gold standard would save our currency and keep it the worlds reserve and make it worth a lot more it would get rid of the inflation that has destroyed us. Gold has always held much value and the price has continued to surge. But if you like a worthless dollar and the collapse of the US economy the gold standard is probably not for you.

                                                      If you think ending the Fed, (which is not Federal and is not a reserve) returning to the gold standard, and slashing Federal spending will not help well I dont think there is any helping you. Your ideas are economic Armageddon, denying that the economy will collapse will not make all the problems go away. Even if you where to tax every citizen 100% you could still not maintain the status quo that you seem to love and adore so much you would still have to borrow money. And in maintaining what we are doing right now if we do we are bound for an economic collapse it will inevitable. You must slash spending it is government spending, borrowing endless amounts of money, and inflating our dollar that got us in to this mess in the first place. Ron Paul's plane would save America we must cut spending and lower taxes and get rid of many of the job killing regulations. And just an FYI the Federal reserve is a collection of private banks that your beloved status quo government supports so much. I believe we have the 2nd highest corporate tax in the world why would anyone want to start a business here when they could do it any where else for cheaper and keep more money. When this country was free we had a great economy it proved to make this country great.

                                                      But if you like a failed economy and failed policy's and the status quo that got us into this mess and only continues to dig us deeper into it, if you hate freedom and liberty and sound money, Ron Paul is probably not for you.

                                                      • 2 votes
                                                      #82.3 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 6:38 PM EST

                                                      Thanks for the response, though I remain unconvinced. Who is going to prevent state governments, backed by majorities from trampling the rights and liberties of minorities in their state if the federal government becomes disempowered the the extent Paul would like to see? History tells us that we cannot simply trust the majority to always do the right thing, rather than that which is in their best interest, but harms others.

                                                      With a gold standard, the dollar ceases to exist as an independant currency, so yes, that would effectively get rid of the dollar.

                                                      Please explain exactly how Paul's measures would help the economy to grow, and why they wouldn't in the short term create a fiscal crisis that makes the recent and current problems look like peanuts in comparison? Do you really think the entire national financial system can be yanked out and replaced without causing massive devestation in its wake? It's like remodeling your kitchen: you may prefer the end result, but first you need to go through an ugly demolition phase. Why are you so convinced that Paul is right? Are you an expert in global macro-economics, or are you just taking his words on faith?

                                                        #82.4 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:17 PM EST
                                                        Reply

                                                        Perry's decline can be blamed squarely on his own malfunctioning brain. He cannot afford to do interviews or debates or make any other unscripted statements, because when he does, he comes off as the love child of George W. Bush and Sarah Palin, and neither of those two characters are popular anymore. On the bright side, what support he has can be attributed to the segment of the population that, for reasons no one will ever comprehend, actually likes Dubyah and Palin.

                                                        The way the quality of Republican candidates is headed, Jan Brewer will probably run for president next time.

                                                        • 1 vote
                                                        Reply#83 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:26 PM EST

                                                        I would vote for the candidate who made this speech if I thought they actually meant it and would lead the country according to this philosophy.

                                                        "Now, we have a different vision for the future. See, I’ve never believed that government has all the answers to our problems. I’ve never believed that government’s role is to create jobs or prosperity. I believe it’s the drive and the ingenuity of our entrepreneurs, our small businesses; the skill and dedication of our workers -- (applause) -- that’s made us the wealthiest nation on Earth. (Applause.) I believe it’s the private sector that must be the main engine for our recovery.

                                                        I believe government should be lean; government should be efficient. I believe government should leave people free to make the choices they think are best for themselves and their families, so long as those choices don’t hurt others. (Applause.)"

                                                        • 2 votes
                                                        Reply#84 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:26 PM EST

                                                        Larry,,,, In that case you aren't voting for any conservative or an independent

                                                        They can't lead on their philosophy ---- Every tax plan they have is either a higher tax on most & a new tax for some states & Voodoo Economics does not work or create jobs

                                                        And they have proven beyond a doubt that they can't lead on rhetoric or the Gingrich "Contract on America" let alone Paul's wacky ideas of liberties

                                                        Yes Larry,,,, Obama's Affordable Health Care Plan is actually working quite well ---- A republican plan that they should have taken full credit for & now vote against

                                                        • 2 votes
                                                        #84.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:31 PM EST

                                                        Jim do you agree with the speech or not?

                                                        Secondly- Republicans have proposed tax cuts, not higher taxes; higher taxes are the addiction of the Democrats including Obama who has raised everyone's taxes.

                                                        • 1 vote
                                                        #84.2 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:37 PM EST

                                                        Everyone got tax cuts,,,, Conservative plans are additional & higher taxes

                                                        I question any spin you put on what you say about anything about Obama -- You have a record of being totally wrong & just another birther

                                                        • 2 votes
                                                        #84.3 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:41 PM EST

                                                        Yes Larry,,,, Obama's Affordable Health Care Plan is actually working quite well ---- A republican plan that they should have taken full credit for & now vote agains

                                                        Those who supported a plan somewhat similar to Obama's failed marxist healthcare plan were just as wrong as Obama.

                                                        First of all there is no constitutional authority for the Federal Govt to interfere with healthcare decisions.

                                                        Secondly, Obamacare is already a fiasco that is will further destroy our country unless it's repealed.

                                                        Overall, Obamacare has increased government control of Americans’ health care choices and limited consumer choice. The more than 1,000 waivers already granted tacitly acknowledge that Obamacare’s “benefits” are not worth its costs.

                                                        Obamacare has increased government control of Americans’ health care choices, raised the cost of insurance, forced insurers to stop offering child-only policies, broken the promise that an individual can keep his insurance unaltered, and bailed out underfunded union early-retiree health care plans.

                                                        One year later, mandating certain benefits has raised the cost of providing insurance, and this higher cost has been passed on to policyholders in the form of higher premiums. For example, Regence BlueCross BlueShield of Oregon has attributed 3.4 percentage points of its 17.1 percent rate increase to Obamacare, while Celtic Insurance Company in Wisconsin and North Carolina has attributed 9 percentage points of its 18 percent rate increase to Obamacare.[5]

                                                        Obamacare has resulted in insurance companies exiting markets, thereby reducing consumer choice. Joshua Raskin, an analyst at Barclays Capital, has noted that it “is harder and harder for smaller plans to compete in a more regulated environment.”[14] Shortly after Obamacare was enacted, Principal Financial Group, which provided insurance to over 800,000 people, decided to stop selling health insurance. The company’s decision reflected its assessment of its ability to compete in the environment created by the law, which Principal believes harms relatively small insurers that lack “significant concentration in any one market.”[15]

                                                        This regulation was well publicized because McDonald’s 30,000 employees with mini-med plans were at risk of losing coverage because of a low MLR, even with the waiver from annual limits on the plan. McDonald’s mini-med plan incurs significant administrative costs because of the high turnover rates among its employees.[16] The MLR regulation published on December 1, 2010, exempted mini-med plans from the requirement for 2011 by requiring them to meet only half of the “official” MLR. The regulation requires that these plans must submit certain figures to HHS, which HHS will use to determine whether or not to extend the waiver in 2012 and 2013.[17]

                                                        HHS expects 20 states eventually to apply for MLR waivers.[18] As of March 14, 2011, Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Nevada, and New Hampshire have applied for waivers, and Maine has been granted a waiver.[19]

                                                        During the debate, President Obama repeatedly assured Americans that Obamacare would not affect individuals who were satisfied with their current health insurance. Current insurance plans were supposed to be “grandfathered in” and thus protected from the numerous mandates and regulations in the health care law. In theory, an insurance plan that gains grandfathered status is not subject to the new requirements, so a plan that was offered before Obamacare could still be offered after the law’s passage.

                                                        The Administration has estimated that 49 percent to 80 percent of small-employer plans, 34 percent to 67 percent of large-employer plans, and 40 percent to 67 percent of individual insurance coverage will not be grandfathered by the end of 2013.[21] Even the unaffected plans are subject to HHS’s wide discretion to deem changes in policies unacceptable. Former HHS Deputy Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation John Hoff has written that “the Administration [can] decide on an ad hoc basis, and without standards, which changes a plan can make and still remain grandfathered.”

                                                        The Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services initially estimated that 375,000 individuals would enroll in the Obamacare high-risk pools by the end of 2010.[31] At the time, it was thought that the $5 billion set aside for Obamacare’s high-risk pools would be grossly inadequate. The high-risk pools may be operated by the states or the federal government, and 27 states chose to create their own risk pools. The federal government set up the risk pools in the remaining 23 states.

                                                        As of February 2011, approximately 12,500 people (roughly 3 percent of the initial estimate) had obtained coverage through Obamacare’s high-risk pools.[32] The underwhelming enrollment suggests two explanations.

                                                        • Experts may have significantly overestimated how many Americans were without insurance because of a preexisting condition, or

                                                        • Despite generous premiums for the high-risk pool (well under the actuarially fair amount),[33] individuals either still cannot afford the premium or are simply not interested in obtaining insurance through the high-risk pool.

                                                        Obamacare provides a $250 rebate to Medicare beneficiaries who fall into Part D coverage gaps (the “doughnut” hole). After paying an annual deductible of $310, seniors on Medicare Part D (the prescription drug benefit) pay 25 percent of the cost of their prescription drugs until the total bill reaches $2,830. Above $2,830, enrollees pay the full cost of their prescription drug bill until total out-of-pocket spending reaches $4,550. At that point, catastrophic coverage kicks in and enrollees pay only 5 percent of the remainder of the bill for the rest of the year. The National Council on the Aging estimates about 4 million people fall into the doughnut hole each year.[39]

                                                        One year later, HHS estimates that only 3 million people[40] of the more than 46 million individuals on Medicare received rebate checks in 2010.[41] This means that the $250 rebate cost taxpayers about $750 million in 2010.

                                                        http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/03/obamacare-the-one-year-checkup

                                                        • 3 votes
                                                        #84.4 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:46 PM EST

                                                        Jim-372206

                                                        I question any spin you put on what you say about anything about Obama -- You have a record of being totally wrong & just another birther

                                                        I see you still resort to lying when confronted with facts. I've NEVER stated or believed that Obama is anything but a US citizen. I have NO issue with his birth or citizenship. It's his marxist beliefs that I disagree with.

                                                        • 3 votes
                                                        #84.5 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:48 PM EST

                                                        The Heritage Foundation? ----- You've got to be kidding

                                                        They've been running against health care reform from day one dude ---- Have some honor here, not all of us are loyal to conservative lies

                                                        • 2 votes
                                                        #84.6 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:52 PM EST

                                                        Jim-the data mostly comes from the Obama administration.

                                                        • 2 votes
                                                        #84.7 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 6:28 PM EST

                                                        Obama has RAISED everyone's taxes???

                                                        You're stupid or just ignorant.

                                                        Sorry.. You could also be stupid AND ignorant. So many choices..

                                                        Obama has lowered almost everyone's taxes. First with the "Making Work Pay" tax credit, and then with a payroll tax cut..

                                                        You're simply not bright enough to even lie well. Sorry.

                                                        • 1 vote
                                                        #84.8 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:02 PM EST

                                                        Larry, you have been PUSHING the Heritage Foundation and NOW you say, Oh, most data came from the Obama Admin. You are the biggest lying traitor off ALL Republicans. Just come out and say that you HATE Obama. Just say it . You will feel better afterwards. All hate will leave your body. Maybe.

                                                        • 2 votes
                                                        #84.9 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:54 PM EST
                                                        Reply
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