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Subscribe to RSSThree storylines from our new NBC-Marist poll: 1) The negative TV ads against Gingrich have worked, explaining why his numbers have sunk … 2) The Tea Party support is splintered, explaining why Romney could win this thing… 3) There’s a lack of enthusiasm for Romney, explaining why he could still lose… Other observations: Paul has a high floor but perhaps a low ceiling, and Santorum and Perry have room to grow, if there’s enough time… And “Meet the Press” has Santorum on Sunday.
DES MOINES, IA -- Here’s the headline from our new NBC-Marist poll of Iowa: With just four days left until the Jan. 3 caucuses, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are running neck and neck, with Romney at 23% among likely caucus-goers and Paul at 21%. Meanwhile, Rick Santorum has surged to third place (going from 6% last month to 15% now) and Newt Gingrich has collapsed (from his lead of 28% to fifth place at 13%). Also in the poll, Rick Perry finds himself in fourth place (at 14%) and Bachmann is in sixth (at 6%). But the poll contains three big storylines beyond the horserace numbers.
*** The negative ads hitting Gingrich worked (and why he could end up in single digits): First, the negative TV ads directed at Gingrich -- from the pro-Romney Super PAC and also the Paul campaign -- have worked, and they might be the most consequential story so far of the GOP presidential race. Besides Gingrich’s drop from first place to fifth, 35% of likely caucus-goers now say the former House speaker would be unacceptable as the GOP’s nominee (only Paul has a higher "unacceptable" rating). That’s a whopping 19-point increase (!!!) from last month, and only Paul has a higher “unacceptable” rating. (Just 21% say Romney would be unacceptable and 24% say Santorum is unacceptable.) What’s more, only 6% in the survey identify Gingrich as the “true conservative” in the Republican contest. “He took it on the chin,” says Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey. For Gingrich, there wasn’t a sex scandal (a la Herman Cain) or an “oops” moment (a la Perry). Instead, it a pure old-fashioned "voter-education campaign," and Romney didn’t have to get himself dirty in the process.
*** Splintered Tea Party support (and why Romney could win this thing): A second storyline is that the divided conservative vote in Iowa creates a path to victory for Romney. In last month’s NBC-Marist poll of Iowa, Gingrich had a large lead over Romney (and the other GOP rivals) among Tea Party supporters. But in this new poll, Tea Party supporters -- who make up about half of all likely caucus-goers -- are splintered. Santorum gets 20% from them, Romney and Paul get 17%, Gingrich 16%, Perry 15%, and Bachmann 10%. So six candidates are WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR among Tea Party supporters. Simply stunning. “This is the Romney dream scenario,” Miringoff says. “When you look at the Tea Party and conservatives, they are all splintered.” And it explains how Romney getting 25% of the vote on Tuesday -- the exact percentage he received when he finished in second in Iowa four years ago -- could put him in first this time around.
In the past two weeks, support has fallen sharply in Iowa for Republican presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.
*** A lack of enthusiasm for Romney (and why he could still lose): So while Romney might benefit from a splintered conservative vote, his support isn’t the strongest. That honor goes to Santorum with 59% strongly supporting him. Next is Paul at 54%, then Perry at 52%, and Romney comes in fourth at 51%. Iowa voter Carolyn Erickson told NBC News yesterday that she is leaning toward Romney because her preferred candidate -- Bachmann -- is unlikely to win. "Even though I love Michelle Bachmann and would like to see her maybe be vice president or whatever, I just don't think that she has a chance.” So the danger for Romney is that people who are leaning to him (because of electability, etc.) don’t show up on Jan. 3.
*** Paul’s low ceiling; Santorum and Perry have room to grow: In addition to those three storylines, here are some more observations from our poll. For one thing, Ron Paul appears to have a high floor (with his 54% strong support), but he might have the lowest ceiling (41% believe he’s unacceptable as the GOP nominee). Also, both Santorum (just 22% think he’s unacceptable) and Perry (24% unacceptable) have room to grow, if there’s enough time. And speaking of time, chew on this: What if this race is already frozen due to the upcoming New Year’s holiday? Is there time left to make a move?
Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 4 days
Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 11 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 22 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 32 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 36 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 67 days
Countdown to Election Day: 314 days
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Gotta go, whiners. My high eight figures are sitting in an offshore bank, so if Obama wants to strip the country even more ... it doesn't effect me. Have a nice 2012 living in Mommy's basement!! Remember Justina, envy and jealousy are one of the seven deadlies!! See ya ....
F U
LOL Hahahaha
Living in a fantasy world is the only Life Zman has left
He seems to know a whole lot about Welfare, food stamps and basements
SEND IN ANOTHER CLOWN please......ZManiac
Zman, never forget us little people! Hhahahahahha. If you get bored enough with your investments and can find a rightwing state with low taxes, please put a few ten thousands into some kind of business back here on the home front, ok?
We appreciate it very much, thank you.
If anyone votes to re-elect Obama, they should be commiited to an institution for the criminally insane. He has buried us in debt, broken nearly all his promises, and has passed bills that will put our grandchildren in debt. I can't think of one good thing he has done for this country. I wouldn't vote for him if my life depended on it, and actually it does.
This should've been your messege in 2004 when you CLOWNS re-elected the one to blame, BUSH
Liberals, like Obama, are attacking the private sector .
Without the private sector , there are NO tax dollars.
Tax dollars support the govt. jobs and programs.
Liberal survive off the govt. jobs and programs.
Liberals are clearly "biting the hand that feeds them."
Vote Romney/Rubio 2012 for private sector JOBS.
Mittens made 200 million off of sending millions of middle class jobs oversees(BAIN COMPANY). You still think you're relevant?
Liberals, like Obama, are attacking the private sector .
And LEONA -- like the well trained parrot she is -- repeats another right wing lie. The DOW is up over 4000 points since Obama took office. Corporate profits are near an all time high. Corporate taxes are at an all time low. This president has singed not law more business friendly tax breaks that any president in history. Domestic oil and gas production is at and all time high. The private sector hasn't had it this good since the Clinton era.
tryreality2012
I would never vote for Romney, but at least I don't lie about him as you do. Romney NEVER sent "millions" of jobs overseas. In fact Bain created far more jobs in this country than were lost.
It is the incompetent Obama who has done more to increase unemployment in this country than all of the Republicans running combined.
That's a lie Larry, google Bain Institute for the truth
tryreality.
I have done that. Factcheck was only able to document less than 1000 people having lost their job from Bain's reorganization activities and some of their companies have added many thousands of jobs
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/fact-checker-biography-romneys-claims-about-bain-capital-job-creation/2011/10/28/gIQAA447cM_blog.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ampad
Norqist should be tried for treason. One can only hope Paul does not win, the man is a fruit cake, more nuts then anything else. Bachman should back out, I don't care for Santorum either. But come to think of it don't like any of the repubs.
Norquist and ANYBODY that signed it.
Lady Jag and tryreality- why don't you tell us how Norquist has committed treason?
Like most leftists, you see it as treason when we disagree with having a totalitarian govt that takes all of our income.
Jody,Iowa
I have read all of the above comments, and feel yours was the best. I come from Idaho which is second only to Utah for being a red state. I was kicked out of the Republican party for being a free thinker (RINO). In this, I am not alone. Idaho now has more Independents then Republicans. This says a lot about the Republican party, when Idaho can't stomach them. The Republican party must be stopped. Now after saying this, I must say I not happy with the Democrat party either. While the Republican party has a solid reputation for supporting corporate america in the sr__ing of the rest of us. The Democrat party has a solid reputation for standing aside (sometimes actively siding with corporate america) and letting it happen. I am sure Jody,Iowa could post at great length on this. We need to vote both parties out. But the Republican party most of all. Vote independent if you can.
Ask Bernie Sanders( i ) who to vote for.
oh yah 4dognite, you sound like a real former Republican. You're mad the Democrats aren't leftwing enough.
Man, these two-bit lying leftwing frauds and the Republican impersonation act! They still think it works.
hmm. For those who really want to know what a racist Ron Paul is I suggest you check out:
thepoliticaltruth.info
Not only that but He wants us to go back in time 80 years, NO THANKS
Never knew Ron Paul was an extreme racist
Then again, he is from Texas
The reason Ron Paul is in the lead (even though they day Mitt Romney is) is because Ron Paul is the only candidate saying he will stop the out of control spending on unnecessary wars and foreign aid. He wants to keep our hard-earned tax payer money here in America and help out Americans who need it. He is for personal freedom and letting people make the small decisions in their lives like whether they choose to drink a beer or smoke a joint. He is the only candidate who wants to save America and if you have kids, you should read up on what he truly believes in and not believe the hype the media is throwing at you about him.
He wants to feed crack cocaine to babies.
But I don't want to unfairly paint him as extreme.
But He wants to eliminate public education, eliminate the E.P.A, eliminate the civil rights amendment, eliminate F.D.A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . wooden nickles anyone?
"Ron Paul is the only candidate saying he will stop the out of control spending"
I remember every single election since 1948 and EVERY candidate, regardless of party was going to stop the out of control spending. The only one that gave us a balanced budget was Bill Clinton.
He doesn't want to feed crack cocaine to babies. He doesn't want to eliminate public education or other programs, he wants to give control to the state level so the people of that state (the voters) have more control over what is best in their state. Obviously, all of his ideals wouldn't be implemented but the overriding theme is that he wants to stop Big Corporations, Big Oil and Big Pharmaceutical companies from stealing all of the money like they are doing now.
Charlie, you were drinking too much in your younger days, and missed Eisenhower and the Demoncats balancing the budget for 3 years in the 50's, and I think it happened 1 year in the late 60's.
And Newt Gingrich and the Republican Congress balanced the budget for four years in the 90's and Clin-toon signed it into law.
Charlie, you were drinking too much in your younger days, and missed Eisenhower and the Demoncats balancing the budget for 3 years in the 50's, and I think it happened 1 year in the late 60's.
No they didn't. Ike ran a small deficit every year. Nixon kind of had a balanced budget in 1970 I believe but they pulled some creative accounting to do that. But my point is EVERY candidate says they will cut spending and NONE of them do it.
According to the White House's Office of Management and Budget,
Ike and the Demoncatic Congress ran surpluses in 1956, 1957 and 1960. There was also a surplus in 1969. Other than the great 90's under Newt Gingrich and the Republican Congress +clinton, Ike's term was as good as it gets as far back as when the
Wonderful Grand Old Party ran govt in the 20's, in which the US budget balanced 11 years in a row, from 1920 to 1930. Man, we'd be a better nation if the Democrats had never taken power in 1933!
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals
click on Table 1.1
If your main point then was that people never really cut the government, you're right. We agree 100%. And still the Democrats squeal bloody murder when the rate of growth in government is slowed, much less any actual cuts being made. Oh the children are gonna diiiiiieeee. lol
Ron Paul wants cocaine dealers dealing drugs on your home street, and, if your teenage kids out there playing basketball want to try something new, why not?
Ron Paul believes coke dealers should be free to practice what they love.
Ron Paul..too old, too out of touch, on the fringe, all get out crazy, too extreme... etc Etc ETC
NO to the Crypt Keeper in 2012
Ron would have His Radical Son Rand be His "Secretary of State", WWWIII anyone?
Just kidding, Ron hates war
Randy's been growin' on me. Ronnie is a lost cause.
And you have your anti-rightwing WW3 rhetoric lost on Rand. Perhaps refuse to fight in WW3, but not start it.
It must really suc to be a republican nowadays!!!
I couldn't even imagine living in that skin. WOW
If ronPaul wins it's a newAamerica. It's an isolationist foriegn policy and domestic policy pre-1929. Nostagia is good for republicvans. It helps them remeber how they ruined th eeconomy back then too. this was the era when millioniare any Mellon the tresury Secrtary worth million paid no taxes.
AAnd it's what Ron Paul's folks want. The Fed reserve didn't act to cool the stock market, and the whole thing went over the cliff-and Herbert Hoover's own biography lamented the fact that any Mellon had bothed things.This was long after the fact though.
Yes, return to yesterday. qwhat's next? give back the Hawwain Islasds? Make alsksa a territory agian?
Like Yogi Berra likes to say "It's deja vue all over again."
And republican who are out of ideas anyway deserve Ron Paul. It's a change we should believe in.
I would vote for the candidate who made this speech if I thought they actually meant it and would lead the country according to this philosophy.
My friends from the Republican, Libertarian wing of the party: Mr. Robinson, Damage 123, Leona, JoeNAlbany, AlanNJ, and Zman; have a great and fabulous NEW YEAR!! It's going to be fun and like I said all along I am pragmatic african american democrat who thinks the President is doing alright in somethings but not everything so I look for a strong challenge from whoever the Republican nominee is just because things aren't getting better fast enough. in the end he'll win but until November 6th it's going to be full out battle the President will take it on the chin but give it back just like what's going to happen on this newsvine everyday until election day. My people from the left JodyN Iowa, Fiesty Redhead, Ginger Bread Momma, David Walker, American Girl, Phinenphancy, Tryreality, and Cowboy 17 be ready to have an all out battle next year. Everybody have a HAYPPY NEW YEAR AND MAY WHATEVER PROBLEMS AND HARDTIMES YOU'RE GOING THROUGH PUT IT IN GOD'S HANDS AND LET HIM TAKE CARE OF IT!!!
I took away a few things. First, republicans are trying to pass new voter id laws to stop voter fraud. But the Republican Iowa caucuses do not require photo id. As a matter of fact, you don't need any id at all. A registered voter can speak on your behalf and say you are who you say you are. So I take away they are not trying to stop voter fraud, they are trying to surpress the vote of those who are more likely to vote democrat. I hope more liberals make more of this. We can't count on the right wing media to actually tell the truth or do anything for average americans
jandrew-
have you or any other libs, or the MSM complained about Rhode Island Democrats passing a voter ID law this year? Or the 29 other states that have voter ID laws?
http://www.ri.gov/press/view/14195
The major topic missed by mr grover, the gop, & the rushbo is the environment. The red cross reporting super high cost numbers for natural disasters in case didn't notice any. It doesn't count the cost of the animal & plant life forms lost. There seems to be an upward trend.
The REAL story, and the question everyone should be asking (and probably is behind closed doors) is; Which one of these GOP clowns is Obama going to embarass in November?
What makes any of the GOP candidates any better than John McCain, who had his ass handed to him in 2008? Shall we go down the list?
Ron Paul- Perhaps the most likable of the group, but still, years of staring at vaginas (gynocologist joke) has perhaps driven him a little batty (because let's be real here, the majority of his patients were not likely very hot chicks, but obese, sweaty, porkers with BBQ sauce stains on their parachute sized panties. I mean, afterall, he practiced in TEXAS.)
Newt Gingrich- Basically John McCain XL (fatter). I mean seriously, he's a pasty old white haired dude who is currently married to his former mistress. Who does that sound like? Oh, yeah, John McCain. Not to mention the fact that they're both corrupt as frick, committing multiple ethics violations.
Rick Perry- Talk about meathead frat boy stuck in a time warp. He may actually be more mentally handicapped than George W., but those two definitely partied at some of the same keggers.
Michelle Bachmann- I mean, what is there to say except that she's completely retarded. I mean bicycle helmit wearing, chest thumping with a limp wrist, short bus riding retarded. Take her husband as an example, dude says he can pray away the gay of homosexuals today. (KOO KOO!)
Mitt Romney- A double talking business failure. The list of Bane Capitol companies that went bankrupt durring his time as CEO is longer than Santa's "Naughty List" (Which, coincidentally, Newt Gingrinch is on.)
Then some dude from Utah that was ambassador to China that nobody cares about (It's a joke people, I know his name is Huntsman.)
If I left anyone out it's because they're even more insignifigant than the people I didn't forget.
Simple facts are this;
In order for any republican to get to 270 electoral votes, they'd have to win all 5 of the following states; VA, PA, NC, FL & OH.
Obama won all 5 in 2008, and in 2012, if he wins just one of those 5 along with the states that always go blue, he gets to 270 with no difficulty. It's statistically impossible for Obama to lose.
Um no DB they were mostly minorities that other doctors would not treat and he often did it for FREE, nice try though.
Bill, Fairfax VA, it is amazing someone that lives so closed to Washington could be so mis-informed. The answer is probably that Bill is a GOP plant spreading propaganda and lies. He easily forgets to mention President Bush's many additions to bigger government. How about the Dept Of Homeland Security, the Dept. formed under Bush's leadership that added 200,000 extra employees to the Federal Payroll. Of course there was no way to pay for DHS so The GOP and Bush just borrowed the money and added to the National Debt, which the republicans now say they are against. And talk about taking away Americans freedoms, the DHS listened in on the Military phone calls home.I guess they thought listening to Solders pillow talk with their wives was a way to stop terrorism? And they brought America the TSA, they don't infringe on our freedoms too much, do they? And there are so many other ways President Bush and the Republican Party of No, increased the size of Government and wasted money. How about 2 unfunded wars and the wasted 6000 plus American lives, and 1.3 Trillion dollars. Boy Bill, do the Republicans know how to waste money, and make Government bigger, not so good for the honesty of your post is it?
Go Ron Paul, who dares to tell the truth that most people don't want to hear or want to ignore.
He does represent real change in this country which no one else would bring in presidency. For anyone who dreamed about Obama's 'change', it eventually becomes only in words, and he turns out to be the same politician like all others: Repubs or Dems.
I feel it is not so much apathy towards Romney, but that he is the first stand by choice. And in the meantime if somebody else shows up that is perfect then Romney may go by the side. All of the candidates have something that doesn't sit right. but everybody has different preferences. Romney fits more peoples requirements the most. he just doesn't fit them all. but then it is hard to imagine anyone would. newt is not likeable. Can you imagine having a president that is not likeable? No. We don't want that, but at this point we don't want anyone to take us for granted, there is no shoe-in, I don't care how many flipflops the wag at them.
It took republican/tea baggers 3 years to grow this bunch of canidate wackos, next time try more sunshine and less manure!!!
The article implies that the Tea Party is splintered. No way. Each American associated with the Tea Party is an individual. Those individuals have slightly different preferences in choosing which of the Republican candidates they want to be the eventual nominee.
Once the nominee is selected by popular vote and our convention process, the Tea Party association will throw its considerable weight behind that nominee.
Did Hillary supporters decide to just vote for McCain because Hillary didn't get the nomination?? LOL
BTW. I attended two Tea Party rallys and the main themes were to shrink government, and especially, to bring spending under control.
That was it, over and over. Didn't see anybody really crazy looking. Just ordinary Americans of all races, concerned about our Country. Some had costumes or hats, some had signs. That's all.
As a matter of fact, many dem. women did just that. They were so angry that Hillary lost, they went to McCain's side and cheered Palin.
Speculation! It's like news, only it isn't. Nothing going on? Make stuff up!
Yes, America is in decline because of the president and government. Most of the people I here commenting have taken a Naive approach to this. When something goes wrong we are all looking to blame someone and who easy than the government. I am not saying that government doesn't have a share of responsibility in the country's decline. But most of us don't really want to face or can't comprehend the true reality of this country's decline. It has nothing to do with universal healthcare, socialism, too much taxes, too too much government, and all those other catch-word phrases that everyone loves to use, because it makes each of us feel so smart and knowledgeable.
What it really has to do is that we as a country have lost site of our true identity. Everyone country has a niche or identity that it relies on for sustenance. America's has always been the freedom and opportunity that it provides everyone, whether it be american-born or foreigner to succeed. Well, that is not the case anymore and it doesn't have a damn to do with all these distractions listed above that we consume ourselves with. It has to do with two things: we don't produce enough goods/services of value in this country (ask the financial industry/Wall Street and Hedge Fund companies what their financial gimmicks are creating of worth) and globalization and both of those go hand in hand. Corporations shifted their focus from providing goods/services that have value to how they can exploit labor so as to minimize their overall costs and that is where globalization has changed and impacted this country. Globalization has been great for emergiing countries, such as China, India and Brazil but America is suffering for it; it is always the case. As other countries escalate others must fall ( a zero sum game).
Until people realize this and get off their high republican and democratic horse and look at these issues with humility instead of criticizing each other's party, America will continue to decline, but only to a certain point. Because we do have one thing going for us that no other country has, the ability to innovate and create new ideas.
But I don't think people want to speak intelligently on this forum. This forum is for people to just criticize and make them selves feel better by ripping on Obama/democrats and Congress and republicans. So go for it, you know it alls, as if it's easy to run the country! Why don't you try it.