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Subscribe to RSSIn the past two weeks, support has fallen sharply in Iowa for Republican presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul are running neck-and-neck in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is surging and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich collapsing just four days before the state's Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll.
Romney drew the support of 23 percent of likely caucus-goers in Iowa – identified based on interest, chance of voting and past participation – ahead of Paul, at 21 percent.
They are followed by Santorum at 15 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 14 percent, Gingrich at 13 percent and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 6 percent.
The Republican presidential hopefuls are in high gear with just days left until the Iowa caucuses. NBC's Peter Alexander reports.
The poll numbers, which are similar to those published in a recent CNN/Time survey, represent a reversal of fortune for Gingrich, as well as an improvement for Santorum and (to a lesser extent) Perry. The NBC-Marist poll conducted in late November had Gingrich in the lead among likely caucus-goers at 28 percent, Romney and Paul tied at 19 percent, Perry at 10 percent, Bachmann at 7 percent and Santorum at 6 percent.
“More than half of [Gingrich’s] support has evaporated,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey.
Negative advertising hits Gingrich 'on the chin'
Miringoff adds that the millions of dollars in negative TV ads targeting Gingrich – from a pro-Romney Super PAC and the Paul campaign – have played a major role in this erosion, with 35 percent of likely caucus-goers now saying he’d be unacceptable as the GOP’s nominee. That’s a 19-point increase from last month.
"The fight I'm in with Romney is exactly the fight that Reagan was in with the establishment in '80," GOP presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich tells NBC's Chuck Todd in a one-on-one interview.
What’s more, only 6 percent in the survey identify Gingrich as the “true conservative” in the Republican contest.
“He took it on the chin,” Miringoff says of the negative advertising campaign, which has questioned Gingrich’s conservative credentials and tied him to Washington.
Splintered Tea Party support
Although just 7 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers believe that Romney is the true conservative in the GOP field, he has two variables working in his favor, according to the poll. One, only 21 percent of likely caucus-goers say he’s unacceptable as the Republican nominee (compared with 35 percent for Gingrich and 41 percent for Paul).
And two, the conservative vote appears to be splintering between the various candidates, and is no longer coalescing around a single Romney challenger.
The wild card in this race has been and continues to be Ron Paul, the Libertarian who has a growing following inside the Republican Party. NBC's Chuck Todd has more.
Last month, Gingrich had a large lead over Romney (and the other GOP rivals) among Tea Party supporters.
But in this new poll, Tea Party supporters – who make up about half of all likely caucus-goers – are divided.
Santorum gets 20 percent from them, Romney and Paul 17 percent, Gingrich 16 percent, Perry 15 percent and Bachmann 10 percent.
“This is the Romney dream scenario,” Miringoff says. “When you look at the Tea Party and conservatives, they are all splintered.”
Obama’s approval rating ticks up in Iowa
The poll also shows an improvement in President Barack Obama’s approval rating in Iowa.
Forty-five percent of registered voters in the state approve of him, while 43 percent disapprove.
Last month, those numbers were upside down, with 43 approving and 46 disapproving.
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum vaults past Newt Gingrich and into third place in the GOP presidential race in Iowa, according to a new poll. Santorum talks to TODAY's Savannah Guthrie about the surge, his conservative values and why he can beat Barack Obama in the general election.
The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted Dec. 27-28 of 2,905 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) and of 433 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.7 percentage points).
Also, unlike the recent CNN-Time poll, the likely voter model in the NBC-Marist survey included independents and a few Democrats, and it measured some respondents by cell phone.
Follow Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) on Twitter.
More from First Read:
- Paul's surge might help Romney in Iowa
- Bachmann campaign loses 2nd key staffer in Ron Paul flap
- Huntsman says Paul is 'unelectable'
- Pro-Gingrich Super PAC: Romney is '2nd most dangerous man in America'
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Mitt Romney is a rino. Ron Paul is not a racist.Don't vote for status qua. The fact that the republican party attacks Ron Paul proves that they don't want smaller government,but they are hand and hand with the Democrats.
All this Newsletter Nonsense is Political Correctness Run Amok.
Racist remarks have been around forever. Remember the "Hymietown" comment by Jessie Jackson in 1984? and all the Al Sharpton racist comment and activity?
Some simple research will reveal a slew of racism within the Political and Journalistic arena.
Obama has done nothing except spend our way out and all the other candidates are business as usual without any new ideas. They'll keep us down in the dumps. Vote Ron Paul
Personally I feel Ron Paul is All We Have. People want change but when someone comes around who is really going to change things they get nervous and vote for more miserable government.
Ok, two things, Personage...
First, just because folks in the past have made racist comments doen't mean it's ok. Even my kids knew better than to try to justify bad behavior by outing others' bad actions. It still doesn't make it right.
Second, neither Mr. Jackson nor Mr. Sharpton are running for president. (If they were, the righties would be ALL OVER their stupid comments, and rightly so.)
It's not about perceiving it to be Okay - Point is that it IS in the past and obviously something that is being used for the sole purpose of the Political Propaganda Smear Machine.
Point is: A person's bad behavior 30 years ago doesn't disqualify them from being a Good President.
I'm just tired of reading thimble brain comments about Ron Paul being a racist. Bill Clinton was a sexist in his days in office but do you think for one minute that he would behave that way again if he became President?
i just saw Mitt on tv he lacks what it takes ..he reminds me of a used car salesman..saying he is a man of the people ? What people ? Oh yeah the ones who also have a 12 milliondollar 4 th home ...silly me !
Yeh.....but I will take a used car salesman (ur description of Romney) over a smooth talkin', jive walkin' pimp from a Greyhound bus station in Chicago any day of the century. Just standing around waiting for his next victim to step off the bus.....namely the dumbasses who elected the joker in 2008....
RON PAUL all the way!!!! change the status quo and vote for real change in 2012!!
I just can't see all the negative talk about Mitt Romney, he is a family man that has had a very successful career! All this talk about flip flopper, please give me the name of a politician who hasn't been one? Call them clowns all you want to justify the one in office right now but Romney is who I will support in 2012 and I'm sure many more will!
There have been posters on here who claim, with a chuckle, that Dems are somehow afraid of Dr. Paul, and so therefore he must be the man to vote for.
Ok. You got me. I'm a fraidy-cat Dem. So, please, my dear little righties, feel free to vote for Ron Paul. Not just in Iowa, vote for him in all the primaries, and get him the Repub nomination. PLEASE. PRETTY PLEASE, nominate the old codger.
It will just make things so much easier to re-elect the president in 2012. Oops, did I say that? Ignore that, I didn't mean it...RON PAUL!
:::dripping sarcasm:::
Go Obummer....Sarcasm dripping out my butt.
oh boy...obama in 2012... maybe he can double the debt to 30 trillion...isn't that special!!!!!
If Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich, or Mitt Romney, or whomsoever of these heros is the eventual nominee, he/she deserves our full support for the next eight years.
ABO 2012
umm...I'm sorry but none of them are from my state. So I wont be able to vote them back into congress, for the next 8 years. But hey, good luck with your Party of Nooo, there. They've collectively put allot of effort into tanking our economy for the past 2 years.
Like someone said before, Ron Paul is the only one addressing the issues with the Fed. That corruption alone is where most of our problems lie.
End the wars. End the Fed.
And no, I am not just some mindless drone that would follow Paul no matter what. I have done my research and he is the only one who I don't find completely nauseating. The arrogance of some people on here is astounding.
I don't know how many people remember, but Pres Clinton was elected because he motivated the youth vote. Mr Paul's largest group of backers are the youth. I honestly believe that they support him because they are tired of the crop of politicians in Washington that are stealing their future. Time will tell, but Arab spring was brought about by the youth, it could happen here as well.
It sees the more Ron Paul gets in front of all these other losers people start attacking him in every possible way then can try, but in truth you can't put a good honest man of his word down.
Ron Paul is the right pick of this lot and I think he might just go all the way this time.
I am hoping he wins and makes it all the way to the front doors of the White House in 2012.
Ron Paul the honest real deal President to be who will in time bring this country back from the hellish ashes of those who came before him.
Vote Ron Paul he is a man who stands for more then greed and dismantling the US Constitution.
The vile hate mongers that wish him out should take a long hard look at where these other men who held power in office have taken this once great country.
He may not be able to fix 20 years in 1 term but at least he won't be adding to finishing off the country for the next 20 years to come.
Ron I wish you well and hope you make it all the way.
Good luck Vote Ron Paul he is a true leader and one with the common wisdom of most Americans, that is more then can be said for any of the other candidates thus far or the ones who held power for so many years until now.
Very well said.
"The vile hate mongers that wish him out should take a long hard look at where these other men who held power in office have taken this once great country"
Ron Paul has been in the same bus as the rest for 20+ years. It's time we get new blood in every seat not just the ones we don't like
If any of you REALLY believe that the Republican party would nominate Ron Paul, regardless of the Iowa results, you're living in a fantasy world.
"you're living in a fantasy world."
That's where most Republicans live.
Sorry Charlie....Rebublicans typically only VISIT the Liberal Fantasy Land......
BK, the Republican Party are nothing but a bunch of pompous,self righteous,vain,egotistical,arrogant,non producing,worthless,pathetic,abortions of humanity.They are a blight. They are trying to drag this country down to their level.Not going to happen.Not now, not ever.
People, people....there is plenty of blame for both parties to accept!
Both parties have screwed you and the country. Money laundering from pac groups and lobbyists, (no they don't affect my decisions). The only group to increase their net worth over the last four years, (15%)...even the 1%ers didn't gain anything, get ssssssweet deals on loans and insider info. GREED, and no accountability. If you actually did "vote all of them out", do you really think that there isn't another little bastard being reared, (heh...reared) by the parties?
Get real for a change. Grow up and research reports instead of just reading the headlies.
It's so warm here today, everyone is going around with "bare arms." I didn't know those nasty libs wanted me to cover my arms on a warm day...those rascals!
And, sorry, but without even addressing the silly hyperbole in the rest of your post, #21, alone, shows you're spewing utter nonsense.
Are JOBS the issue or not? Texas has created 43% of ALL job growth in the USA for several years....under Rick Perry's leadership. Ron paul has never created a single job, never sponsored a bill that has passed, never done a bloody thing except run his mouth in elections, and would have the USA attacked by our enemies abroad. Ron Paul wants to END: Social Security, Food Stamps, Gov't assistance, Unemployment Benefits----None of which are in THE CONSTITUTION! Paul supporters don't have a clue to what they support. Even Paul's son is against Social Security. There is a Gray Army out here sitting silent, IGNORING the fact that we are the MAJORITY population in the country. Our vote is the greatest in the nation.
Obama cut 500 Billion dollars from Social Security--IMMEDIATELY--with his dumb Obamacare; and we ignore it? The taxbreak Obama wants to last forever is Social Security deposits. Obama robs the Gray Army and still we sit silent like stones at a river's edge. We are NOT lessor citizens because we are 65 years old and it is TIME we stood up and shouted: ENOUGH of this idiotic garbage! OBAMA and Ron Paul are our enemies by their own admission and will not get our support or vote, and we will VOTE. COUNT ON IT !!!!!!!!!
http://www.issues2000.org/2012/Ron_Paul_Social_Security.htm
"Texas has created 43% of ALL job growth in the USA for several years....under Rick Perry's leadership."
If Rick Perry is such a great job creator -- why is the unemployment rate in Texas higher than the national average?
Easy clark! You'll have a heart attack and have to go get that there OBAMAcare.
I didn't know all this happened in the last three years. Thanks for pointing that out!
they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down,they're up, they're down - sounds like porn: hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha - that is kind of funny...
still waiting on the zombie apokolypse
Not funny at all.......but fairly intelligent coming from the mind of a liberal 3 year old. BTW , the discussion at hand pertains to ELECTION......Not ERECTION>
I agree with the statement that if this is the best America has to offer we are really in trouble as a country.
The only candidate that doesn't want to start a war with Iran is Ron Paul.
Ron Paul is not a racist -- please inform yourself on the issue before spewing idiotic garbage. He disavowed the newsletters time and again, and nothing in his record indicates he is a racist. In fact, he's spoke often of how drug laws discriminate against blacks and changed his postion on the death penalty because too many blacks were being executed. The Austin president of the NAACP has known him for 20 years and endorses him.
Stop being a willful IDIOT. It doesn't MATTER whether Romney or Obama wins, they're torn of the same cloth. Pull your ass out of the False Reality and WAKE UP. The Right/Left Paradigm is designed to keep you arguing amoung yourselves, while the banker elites rape this country. There is fluoride in your drinking water, turning you into a passive moron and lowering your IQ by ten points. Your children are being indoctrinated in public school and being turned into good little Eichmanns. The Mainstream Media is run by corporate interests and the War Machine propaganda is shoved down our throats constantly. You are a mind-controlled gerbil as far as they are concerned -- stop taking their orders and think for yourself, do your own research.
RON PAUL IS THE ONLY ONE WHO STANDS AGAINST THE ESTABLISHMENT.
"RON PAUL IS THE ONLY ONE WHO STANDS AGAINST THE ESTABLISHMENT"
How long has Ron Paul been in DC? He is the establishment!
"RON PAUL IS THE ONLY ONE WHO STANDS AGAINST THE ESTABLISHMENT."
You remind me of the hippies in the 60s -- constantly yapping about the evil, wicked, nasty, awful, terrible, horrible, dreaded ESTABLISHMENT!!!
""You remind me of the hippies in the 60s -- constantly yapping about the evil, wicked, nasty, awful, terrible, horrible, dreaded ESTABLISHMENT!!!""
Yet who actually thought that we would STILL be in that situation today?
It strikes me that the people who change their vote based on a negative ad run by an opponent are the same people who can be persuaded by a yard sign. Very informed electorate we have here.
The only candidate that needs no tele prompter to answer a real serious question is Ron Paul.
He may sound or talk like a laymen, but what ever he says is the bloody honest truth and he knows when to play tough so don't underestimate him because he speaks with a humble voice of reason.
Enough said he is the real deal.
wildly flailing your arms while mouthing is not answering a question. I'm not against the guy but he reminds me of Ross Perot's VP candidate Stockdale in that he only has a few catch phrases to hang his hat on.
lol if he WAS the real deal...wouldn't he have been elected in one of the past 20 years, that he's ran for President?
Perhaps if he was we would not be in the mess we are today.
buckeyenut-2225921
Maybe if they gave him the same air time to speak he wouldn't have to put his hands up and talk so fast.
They have run this man down in every debate cheated him out of time slots and news worthy ads to just simply not reporting the basic fact that he is the front runner in this 2012 campaign.
Sorry but he has been red flagged right from the start of this whole one sided bias debate.
Ron Paul has been given no time or credit like all the other campaign running mates have and that is the cold hard facts.
But like they always say you can't keep a good man down for ever and his time is now as all the others begin to fall the man who speaks the truth of wisdom and reason is finally getting the time he should have been given from the start.
Mitt is un-electable. Why does he keep running?
If you want a Mormon, Jon Huntsman is a much better choice. He is worth a ton more money so he'll be less greedy and he speaks Chinese.
Just to pi** off the Libs. Sorry rev.........dumb Question.
obama is unelectable!
in 2012 vote out soros, van jones and obama!!!!!
Reverend, You need to kneel down in your sanctuary and pray to Jesus for guidance. Attacking Romney because of his Mormon faith, a faith which espouses a belief in Christ, is pure religious bigotry.
What I like about Ron Paul: He's against the United States playing the role of Protector of the World as the rest of the world stands on the side line cheering but not sharing the burden by contributing in either money or military presence.
What I don't like about Ron Paul: He's against Government Spending of any kind which would help to shore up the economy, even during a critical time like we're experiencing today.
Note: He believes that Market Forces will cure all problems. That's Herbert Hoover all over again. We don't need someone like that in the White House for four years sitting on his hands doing nothing while the country goes into total freefall!
What do think the county is doing right now and has been allowed to continue with all these other guys in power?
Give it a rest and give him a chance, if he blows it then elect a new guy simple.
Freemannogod, Bone up on the history of the Great Depression and the Hoover Administration during the years leading up to that terrible depression: he did nothing as the economy stagnated This very thing could happen with Paul in the White House. It's too great a risk to take!
RBTatt- How are you enjoying your current Depression, soon to be the Greater Depression, once we admit it?
Well if we keep beating ourselves up as our candidates are doing, nobody wins the election.
There isn't too many that will vote for Odumbo, and less that will vote for whoever gets the repub nod, so nobody wins by write-in vote. Then we wil find out if Nobody can run the country, LMAO
Guess what??? NOBODY IS Running our Country.......However, Odumbo is faring rather well in running it into oblivion.
haven't seen a politician that honest, speaking of the truth and having great ideas to change this country beside Ron Paul. any others just typical politicians who say only what people want to hear.
wish he wins there!
Man! It gets funny every day watching the Tea-Bagger/Republican clown show! You know they are bad when other Tea-baggers are calling them clowns!
you should hear what the dems are saying about the supreme socialist
anybody but the failure you demotards have elected to the WH right now.
Gee, someone just seems to be flaunting the COH!