E-mail updates
Follow on Twitter
Subscribe to RSSIn the past two weeks, support has fallen sharply in Iowa for Republican presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul are running neck-and-neck in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is surging and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich collapsing just four days before the state's Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll.
Romney drew the support of 23 percent of likely caucus-goers in Iowa – identified based on interest, chance of voting and past participation – ahead of Paul, at 21 percent.
They are followed by Santorum at 15 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 14 percent, Gingrich at 13 percent and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 6 percent.
The Republican presidential hopefuls are in high gear with just days left until the Iowa caucuses. NBC's Peter Alexander reports.
The poll numbers, which are similar to those published in a recent CNN/Time survey, represent a reversal of fortune for Gingrich, as well as an improvement for Santorum and (to a lesser extent) Perry. The NBC-Marist poll conducted in late November had Gingrich in the lead among likely caucus-goers at 28 percent, Romney and Paul tied at 19 percent, Perry at 10 percent, Bachmann at 7 percent and Santorum at 6 percent.
“More than half of [Gingrich’s] support has evaporated,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey.
Negative advertising hits Gingrich 'on the chin'
Miringoff adds that the millions of dollars in negative TV ads targeting Gingrich – from a pro-Romney Super PAC and the Paul campaign – have played a major role in this erosion, with 35 percent of likely caucus-goers now saying he’d be unacceptable as the GOP’s nominee. That’s a 19-point increase from last month.
"The fight I'm in with Romney is exactly the fight that Reagan was in with the establishment in '80," GOP presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich tells NBC's Chuck Todd in a one-on-one interview.
What’s more, only 6 percent in the survey identify Gingrich as the “true conservative” in the Republican contest.
“He took it on the chin,” Miringoff says of the negative advertising campaign, which has questioned Gingrich’s conservative credentials and tied him to Washington.
Splintered Tea Party support
Although just 7 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers believe that Romney is the true conservative in the GOP field, he has two variables working in his favor, according to the poll. One, only 21 percent of likely caucus-goers say he’s unacceptable as the Republican nominee (compared with 35 percent for Gingrich and 41 percent for Paul).
And two, the conservative vote appears to be splintering between the various candidates, and is no longer coalescing around a single Romney challenger.
The wild card in this race has been and continues to be Ron Paul, the Libertarian who has a growing following inside the Republican Party. NBC's Chuck Todd has more.
Last month, Gingrich had a large lead over Romney (and the other GOP rivals) among Tea Party supporters.
But in this new poll, Tea Party supporters – who make up about half of all likely caucus-goers – are divided.
Santorum gets 20 percent from them, Romney and Paul 17 percent, Gingrich 16 percent, Perry 15 percent and Bachmann 10 percent.
“This is the Romney dream scenario,” Miringoff says. “When you look at the Tea Party and conservatives, they are all splintered.”
Obama’s approval rating ticks up in Iowa
The poll also shows an improvement in President Barack Obama’s approval rating in Iowa.
Forty-five percent of registered voters in the state approve of him, while 43 percent disapprove.
Last month, those numbers were upside down, with 43 approving and 46 disapproving.
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum vaults past Newt Gingrich and into third place in the GOP presidential race in Iowa, according to a new poll. Santorum talks to TODAY's Savannah Guthrie about the surge, his conservative values and why he can beat Barack Obama in the general election.
The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted Dec. 27-28 of 2,905 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) and of 433 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.7 percentage points).
Also, unlike the recent CNN-Time poll, the likely voter model in the NBC-Marist survey included independents and a few Democrats, and it measured some respondents by cell phone.
Follow Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) on Twitter.
More from First Read:
- Paul's surge might help Romney in Iowa
- Bachmann campaign loses 2nd key staffer in Ron Paul flap
- Huntsman says Paul is 'unelectable'
- Pro-Gingrich Super PAC: Romney is '2nd most dangerous man in America'
Leave a Comment:
"I NEWT GINGRICH will be the nominee just look at the pole numbers" that was newt on 12/4/11 ...It's great to see even the republicans hate their own candidates....... I hope a true dark horse candidate save the day for you all ...like some-one you republicans would truly respect maybe a re-incarnated Adolf Hitler that would fit your conservative ways to as tee ..because all the things the republican citizenry would like are exactly what was written in MIEN KAMPF... read it you will see except who you blame for your problems that things you wanted were exactly spelled out in his book... He blamed jews you blame liberals...
This is nothing more than a popularity contest ... what a shame that the whole process is dictated by who has the most money. Many voters are typically duped by code words meant to stir their worst fears (Mit Romney is a master at it just listen carefully... I don't trust him). I typically vote Democrat .... this time, I will vote for the person I think will do the best job for moving us forward. I would not vote for Romney.... there are others in the Republican party I would vote for because I believe they are on the right track. The hard right has a basic contradiction in their platform .... they promote keeping government out of as much as possible yet private PERSONAL CHOICES is an area they want to insert themselves into. .... don't like anyone in that batch.
Dear Voters,
Mitt Romney will NEVER be elected in a Christian country. Mormonism has the stigma of being a cult. A misled group of people that are not really what they profess themselves to be.
For this reason alone Romneys entire elections campaign staff are wasting their time on an unelectable candidate and the worst part of it they are taking up valuable time that the public should be receiving to meet a person that will get Obama out of the White House. There are NO black Mormons !!!!!!!!!! How could he win????? We need to focus on the electable person and get ready for a president that can begin the repairs that need to be done to fix the mistakes Obama has made.
Mormanism v black liberation theology (a second time?)
VOTE soros, van jones and obama OUT in 2012!!!!
Amazing how well Ron Paul is doing.... without corporate media's blessing.
Obama did well but Mitt will do even better ! Romney 2012 ! President Romney will make sure that the big banks, and Wall Street corporations will get much more bailout money ! ! We should go to war with Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and China ! Increase government spending even more, and create more government jobs that produce absolutely nothing by expanding FEMA, the TSA, and IRS ! Mitt knows that he will be able to spend as much as he wants because the middle class provides plenty of tax money that can be given away to big banks, and corporations. Mitt will also give away billions of tax payer money to countries like Israel, Pakistan, and countries that hate us. Romney for increased poverty, increased spending, and more hope, and change 2012 !
In more than half the states of the U.S., Ron Paul couldn't be elected dogcatcher, much less president. That's because the voters in those states are more intelligent than the voters in the remainder of the states.
Members of congress are charged with making decisions on issues about which they have no expertise. This fact has finally caught up with us. The issues have become so complex (socially, economically, scientifically, environmentally, globally, diplomatically, etc. etc.) that they are being hacked at with axes and clubs instead of with fine surgical instruments. Are we F***ED?!
Thousands of US American Factories have been shipped overseas, Millions of US American Jobs have been shipped overseas, Billions of US American Dollars to buy "Made In China" consumer goods have been shipped overseas, Billions Dollars worth of US American raw materials have been shipped overseas to provide offshore jobs, and Trillions of Debt Obligations have been shipped overseas. That Home owners were scammed and Home values are going through A Great Depression, That unemployment is still high and our economy is trillions in debit and shaky, That the USA National Government is deadlocked and totally dysfunctional. Fair Free Trade – (Not Balanced Trade) Fair Free Trade - The key to sustainable recovery is the return of manufacturing (maker) jobs to the USA. US American Jobs will not return to the USA until 3 / 4 of our Local Governments adopt a policy of County Wide Fair Free Trade Zones. Where all products and/or services offered for sale/use in “The Zone” (be it county, state, or nation) must be produced and/or provided in accordance with all USA; quality, safety, health, environment and wage standards, and NO ONE is even talking about this option. Go to: www.manifestry.info > Fair Free Trade
what a waste of money that could be used to help the needy,but instead these so-called candidates for the people are just looking for that big retirement check.They are feeding the people a bunch of crap.Neither one of them can beat Obama because the People will vote Obama into office again.We don"t want to go through the same thing he did when he took over the mess Bush and his sidekick,Cheney left with that drumed up war ,just so they could make millions before they left.Bush and Cheney should support these soldiers that are getting on the band wagon for disability being that they don"t have a job when they get out,because they caused this stupid war.
The Republican party ( my party by the way) still has yet to demonstrate that is has intelligent life forms. Romney, Paul, all of them have yet to address the issues...the economy, the national debt, the veterans who are returning from the war (s), healthcare. They are all so busy talking badly about either the President or the other candidates they have forgotten. We are watching closely to see how would any one of them run the country. Iowa is a wonderful state and I appreciate the good folks taking time to go through this process, but we still do not have a candidate that meets the test. Any of them talked about walking a mile in your shoes or mine? feeding our families, saving for our kids education? inability to afford healthcare? have not had a raise in three years? No....none of them are in touch with the reality of our lives. We are still waiting for a true candidate.
How can anyone be so stupid to vote for Obama!!! For Gods sake, He signed the NDAA!!!
Rock on Ron Paul!!!!
Support Ron Paul! Mitt Romney is a puppet and more of the same!
Ron Paul is REAL CHANGE with substance.
We need Ron Paul!
I traveled to Iowa last month. Most of the people that I talked too, were honest, god fearing and voting for Mitt Romney, which is the best decision for our country. Ron Paul is a supporter of gay rights, He is for obortion, he is not very honest. And has has numerous affairs in his life. I hope Iowa'ns will vote for the next President of the United States----Mitt Romney who is honest, a great family man, and a man of God. WE are fortunate to have such an individual to run for President. Vote for the winner. Their are alot of gays in the oil fields who are supporting Ron Paul, is this who we want as our President. I don't think so.
I am voting for Mitt Romney.
I see Ron Paul as a shetland pony in a horse race. Do you want such a low life as a presidential canidate for the Great Republician party.
Newt the fruit is bringing up the REAR, or is it up his Rear?
Dang I hope Paul gets it. He's the only one that thinks for himself.
Personally, I don't give a crap if Ron Paul is a racist, homophobe, or Nazi.
Lincoln owned slaves.
Jefferson had at least one black mistress.
And Franklin... while never president, Franklin had quite a reputation for, well, all manner of wtf behaviors...
Last time I checked, the Politically Correct far right hadn't managed to outlaw bigotry, and the bible-suppositing far right hadn't outlawed being anything other than Rich, White and Republican, so...
Yeah, so what if Ron Paul is racist... pretty much everyone is, at least a little.