NBC poll: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul neck-and-neck in Iowa; Newt Gingrich in 5th

In the past two weeks, support has fallen sharply in Iowa for Republican presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.

 

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul are running neck-and-neck in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is surging and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich collapsing just four days before the state's Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll.

Romney drew the support of 23 percent of likely caucus-goers in Iowa – identified based on interest, chance of voting and past participation – ahead of Paul, at 21 percent.


They are followed by Santorum at 15 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 14 percent, Gingrich at 13 percent and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 6 percent.

The Republican presidential hopefuls are in high gear with just days left until the Iowa caucuses. NBC's Peter Alexander reports.

The poll numbers, which are similar to those published in a recent CNN/Time survey, represent a reversal of fortune for Gingrich, as well as an improvement for Santorum and (to a lesser extent) Perry. The NBC-Marist poll conducted in late November had Gingrich in the lead among likely caucus-goers at 28 percent, Romney and Paul tied at 19 percent, Perry at 10 percent, Bachmann at 7 percent and Santorum at 6 percent.

“More than half of [Gingrich’s] support has evaporated,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey.

Negative advertising hits Gingrich 'on the chin'
Miringoff adds that the millions of dollars in negative TV ads targeting Gingrich – from a pro-Romney Super PAC and the Paul campaign – have played a major role in this erosion, with 35 percent of likely caucus-goers now saying he’d be unacceptable as the GOP’s nominee. That’s a 19-point increase from last month.

"The fight I'm in with Romney is exactly the fight that Reagan was in with the establishment in '80," GOP presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich tells NBC's Chuck Todd in a one-on-one interview.

What’s more, only 6 percent in the survey identify Gingrich as the “true conservative” in the Republican contest.

“He took it on the chin,” Miringoff says of the negative advertising campaign, which has questioned Gingrich’s conservative credentials and tied him to Washington.

Splintered Tea Party support
Although just 7 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers believe that Romney is the true conservative in the GOP field, he has two variables working in his favor, according to the poll. One, only 21 percent of likely caucus-goers say he’s unacceptable as the Republican nominee (compared with 35 percent for Gingrich and 41 percent for Paul).

And two, the conservative vote appears to be splintering between the various candidates, and is no longer coalescing around a single Romney challenger.

The wild card in this race has been and continues to be Ron Paul, the Libertarian who has a growing following inside the Republican Party. NBC's Chuck Todd has more.

Last month, Gingrich had a large lead over Romney (and the other GOP rivals) among Tea Party supporters.

But in this new poll, Tea Party supporters – who make up about half of all likely caucus-goers – are divided.

Santorum gets 20 percent from them, Romney and Paul 17 percent, Gingrich 16 percent, Perry 15 percent and Bachmann 10 percent.

“This is the Romney dream scenario,” Miringoff says. “When you look at the Tea Party and conservatives, they are all splintered.”

Obama’s approval rating ticks up in Iowa
The poll also shows an improvement in President Barack Obama’s approval rating in Iowa.

Forty-five percent of registered voters in the state approve of him, while 43 percent disapprove.

Last month, those numbers were upside down, with 43 approving and 46 disapproving.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum vaults past Newt Gingrich and into third place in the GOP presidential race in Iowa, according to a new poll. Santorum talks to TODAY's Savannah Guthrie about the surge, his conservative values and why he can beat Barack Obama in the general election.

The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted Dec. 27-28 of 2,905 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) and of 433 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.7 percentage points).

Also, unlike the recent CNN-Time poll, the likely voter model in the NBC-Marist survey included independents and a few Democrats, and it measured some respondents by cell phone.

Follow Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) on Twitter.

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Appreciate your thoughts Dee-------------President Obama-----2012

    Reply#378 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:20 AM EST

    Wow, you and others must be very forgiving of Obama for his failed policies, so forgiving that you are willing to give him another chance for 4 more years. Ok. I guess we will see what 2012 will bring us, change or more of the same.

      #378.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:26 AM EST
      Reply

      Dee--I've read Romney's life----could you please look up President Obama's accomplishments since he's been President. The list is long, I don't have time on listing all of them.---Thank You--Happy New Year

      President Obama---2012

        Reply#379 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:38 AM EST

        Not his life, his ideas and plan to turn things around. I will pass on reading about Obama's accomplishments, what you consider accomplishments I consider failure. His accomplishments?, he does not have much to show for it.

          #379.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:46 AM EST
          Reply

          Dee: Okey-Dokey------------------President Obama 2012---------------------

            Reply#380 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:04 AM EST

            test

              Reply#381 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:37 AM EST

              You passed!!!!

                #381.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:48 AM EST
                Reply

                I'll try and break it down from my perspective. Dr.Paul proposes less regulation, ie let the FREE market decide who stays in business. Poor products, high prices? Bye Bye. Shysters, Polluters? Bye Bye. Allow the consumer to dictate the outcome. Businesses are leaving due to the crushing regulations currently in place. The CEO of Intel stated it would a billion dollars more to open and operate a new semi conductor plant in the U.S. The consumer will be the regulator!

                Dr.Paul proposes a non-intervention foreign policy. Bring our troops home and save 100's of billions of dollars that can be put to much better use here.The current foreign policy is much too costly in lives and dollars. If you listen to the LIARS, other GOP candidates, you will hear that we were attacked because we're free and prosperous and some bull about values and standards. If you're truly interested please conduct you're own due dilligence. Go to YouTube and type in John Perkins o Michael Scheuer, Chalmers Johnson and Philip Giraldi, all ex CIA agents who say exactly why we were attacked.- because we bully them and meddle in their affairs - exactly what Dr.Paul has said!

                Dr.Paul states that the war on drugs has been a total failure. Plenty of drugs coming into the country. Your 16 year old neighbor is growing his own weed and providing it to his pals. People being busted and jailed for weed possession, mostly minorities! I'll bet my life that those not using drugs currently are not going to start if drugs are legalized! And once again another bloated, costly government agency. How ironic that Wall Street launders drug cartel profits! Drugs and Prostitution are moral issues better left to the states or better yet the individual!

                Dr.Paul would like to repeal the so called patriot act and the recently passed national defense. Both are dangerous to our liberties and are unconstitutional - enough said.

                I don't need nor want some overpaid, underworked crook dictating how I conduct my life, whet I put in my body, what supplements to take, what I can and cannot grow in my backyard. I'll do as I please without harming my neighbor or his/her property!!!! I'm voting for Dr.Paul as nominee, 3rd party or write in - whatever it takes!!

                • 2 votes
                Reply#382 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:21 AM EST

                Good presentation.

                  #382.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:26 PM EST
                  Reply

                  I agree with most of what you say about Ron Paul. He does make a lot of sense about most things, you are probably right about why we were attacked. But you must be realistic in understanding that radicals in Middle Eastern Countries have one objective only, that they want to kill us and wipe out Israel off the map and they will shortly complete the nuclear bomb to do it. I do not feel comfortable voting for someone who believes 9/11 was our fault and that we should not protect ourselves from radicals. That is a little naieve of him to think the attacks will stop. By not meddling, that means, leave Israel to stand by itself and be wiped out? is that what Ron Paul wants? Would you want that?

                    Reply#383 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:33 AM EST

                    Dee why do they want to kill us? You state "you're probably right about why we were attacked" you need to do your own research that's if your covet the truth! You state "that the ME radicals have one objective only blah, blah" ya' their one objective is to left alone!!!! You must be listening to Bachmann and the Lamestream media regarding the nuclear development! Dr.Paul said that 9/11 was our fault? Really? Dr.Paul stated the reasons behind the attack! Dr.Paul stating we shouldn't protect ourselves? Lol!! He is for a STRONG military to protect America!!!! Dr.Paul never said the attacks would stop! He simply states if attacked he will go to congress and get a declaration of war and go and kick ass!!!! Israel is very capable of defending herself - very capable!! I wonder if Jerusulam were located outside of Israel would the American people be so concerned about Israel? Dee do you're own research!!

                      #383.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:00 AM EST

                      Dee Patriot,

                      One could infer from your successive rants that you are an Israeli or Israeli-American who hates Mr. Obama and Dr. Paul because they are not willing to commit to the expenditure of unlimited American blood and American wealth on trillion-dollar, no-win wars in the Middle East, as directed by the Likudniks in Israel.

                      Hate is blinding. The hater refuses to acknowledge accomplishments of the hated. The hater spews gratuitous criticism. The hater is careless with the truth.

                      While the defense of America and other countries is of concern to reasonable persons, a mindless commitment to more violence and war in the Middle East by Mr. Romney and other Republican presidential wanna-be's, excepting Dr. Paul, is not in the best interests of Americans.

                        #383.2 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:34 AM EST

                        Croak, First of all, I am not Israeli or an Israeli American, and I do not know how from my posts you view me as someone who is full of hatred, epecially for Obama. I do not hate him, I do however,resent him for the path he has put this country in, that is why I am hoping for a change in this administration. I am just looking at the world from a realistic standpoint. If people want to be in denial as to the danger and threat the Middle East poses on us, especially a very soon to be nuclear Iran, so be it. Whatever the situation that got to the point of the Middle East hating us and wanting our destruction and Israel's destruction, we have no choice but to act and defend ourselves.

                          #383.3 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 12:09 PM EST
                          Reply

                          republican/tea baggers suk koch cox

                            Reply#386 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:52 AM EST

                            You know, there comes a point with many things where the writing on the wall is so clear, that you just know the gig is up. So the smart money sees that, throws in the towel, and begins making plans for another shot at it down the road, and thereby spares everyone all the pain and blather we would have to endure if they persued the enterprise. I mean really, it's that way for Republicans in this race, and we all know it. So why don't you guys just give up now on 2012, start preparing for 2016, and maybe you'll be able to do better for candidates down the road. I mean looking at your contenders, I want to yell like John McEnroe at a tennis umpire "You must be kidding me!!" (or something like that)

                              Reply#387 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:03 AM EST

                              Wow, what a paper tiger Newt Gingrich has turned out to be. I actually thought that of all the GOP candidates he would be the toughest one for Obama. I guess I was wrong. The GOP really needs to take a look at its party and see what has happened to it. This is the worst group of candidates I believe I have ever seen. Mitt Romney will win the nomination not because the rank and file of the GOP like him, but he will actually win by default because he is the only one who will be left standing. Rick Santorum should forget it. He can't win. John Huntsman is a better choice all around as far as traditional Republican principals go, but he hasn't been able to get traction. Michele Bachman is too out of the mainstream as is Ron Paul to win in any place but IOWA. What a strange political year this has been.

                                Reply#388 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:40 AM EST

                                The gop/republican/tea baggers need to do the football play of PUNT!!! They are beat in 2012 and if they don't regroup and get serious for 2016 they may go the way of the DoDo bird!!!

                                  Reply#389 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:50 AM EST

                                  I'll be glad when this madness is over. Who really cares about the weird Iowa Republican base? They're not representative of the American electorate and will have very little influence in the general election. When all is said and done, Romney will be the nominee and all the clowns will slink back into obscurity. I wish the media would ignore this circus. We're all sick of it.

                                    Reply#390 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:53 AM EST

                                    Wrong - O Mittens ! You are sadly mistaken if you are not aware that most Americans are completely in tune with Ron Paul's foreign policy stance ! Had you not been granted deferments from fighting in Indochina, you might be a bit more apprehensive of America's current aggressive empirical designs. But since you spent the time when other young Americans your age were dying in Vietnam, touring France on a bicycle and promoting your Mormon teachings, there is no way possible you could ever know this. I am including a website address for all known chickenhawks that are all for America's wars and interventions as long as somebody else's sons and daughters are doing the fighting and dying. Here it is >

                                      Reply#391 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 11:25 AM EST

                                      "Empirical designs?" Hahaha. Let's certainly hope so.

                                        #391.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:11 PM EST
                                        Reply

                                        I'm going to vote for Obama, however, Romney doesn't scare the hell out of me the way Bush/Cheney, McCain/Palin did, or most of the other current Republican contenders do. When you're focused on ramming Christian "family values" down everybody's throats (or talking about making English America's "official" language), you're obviously not serious about the responsibility of running the most diverse and powerful country in the world.

                                          Reply#392 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:24 PM EST

                                          Bachmann is an outright spaceshot! Santorum is the biggest phony going! Gingrich is just an out right shyster and doesn't hide it! Romney is Smooth and coy! Perry seems very uncertain about every thing especially his campaign! Huntsman acting like the diplomat he is, useless! Dr.Paul is the only candidate with his finger on the pulse of the problems facing our nation. People do your due dilligence on the issues - our shrinking liberties, our humongus debt, insane, costly (lives&dollars) foreign policy, we're BROKE! Phony, costly drug war - those issues all interrelate. Oh, did I mention that Gingrich is an arrogant prick!!!!

                                          • 1 vote
                                          Reply#393 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:23 PM EST

                                          Gingrich is experiencing the same fate as Herman Cain in the run for the GOP nod. The positive aspect of the process [perhaps the only positive aspect] is that the public begins to get to know and really see the candidates for who they are. Perry has shown his laziness or ineptitude regarding grasp of facts and ability to articulate sensible positions. Gingrich has been exposed as so volatile and "flaky" because he will say anything to pander and get attention that people simply cannot trust him. Ironically, that "loose cannon" egotism is what got him ousted from the Speaker of the House position before. So the impression fits.

                                          It is also fitting that the GOP should nominate a candidate [Romney] who made millions by destroying and liquidating companies, eliminating jobs for average working people, in order to increase the transfer of wealth to the top 1%. Again, this character and philosophy is fitting for the flag bearer of that party. I am not saying that such a philosophy is good for the nation, but it does reflect the constituency and philosophy of the GOP. . Democracy means that the people should be informed and be able to choose the leader that represents their best interests.

                                          So, if people are truly aware of the choice and are in favor of more unemployment, less regulation of financial institutions [if that is actually possible] and inceased national deficits from a greater recession and a stagnant economy, then Romney and the GOP should be their choice. After all, the rich get richer even when the economy tanks and the middle class is disappearing. If your net worth is over $5 million, that is who your should support. You do not have to worry about being employed, education for your children or health care. Chances are you pay little or no taxes anyway, and complain about the 15% rate you may pay while middle class families are paying 30% or more in combined state and federal taxes on income. If your income is below $250,000 then you would be a fool to support that strategy.

                                          • 1 vote
                                          Reply#396 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:41 PM EST

                                          Pure BS, GOP did not cause the current economic downturn.

                                            #396.1 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 6:43 PM EST

                                            Though wakefulness my domain, in sleep I shall remain. For wakefulness is sleep; One shallow, one deep.

                                              #396.2 - Sun Jan 1, 2012 7:51 PM EST
                                              Reply

                                              The claim that an action is uncostitutional doesn't mean that it can't be made into law. The word amendment means that the original law can be changed if it is no longer practible. The problem is that the wolves are making the rules for protecting the sheep. The pols. set their own rules for governing themselves,deciding on their raises, setting their own benifits, tax free expense accounts,sa well as having lobyists very conveniently on hand to tell them what laws,regulations,controls and whatever else that the rich desire. This is not a democracy.It is an oligarcy. We should tell our so called reps. that we vote for them to first of all ,police themselves and set up a system to enforce their behaviour,economic as well as moral.

                                                Reply#397 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:11 PM EST

                                                UNLESS RON PAUL WINS, YOU WILL NEVER AGAIN SEE AMERICA AS YOU REMEMBER IT:

                                                ZioNazi Overlord is Demi-god: Supreme Commander of the United States...

                                                http://youtu.be/tkdQbhB7Ckk

                                                TAKE OFF THE FOREIGN YOKE: True Christian says:Take off the ZioNaziYoke.

                                                Vote: Ron Paul - Vote for the US Costitution:

                                                http://youtu.be/9OYY5doGI2g

                                                A GREAT AMERICAN: Ron Paul 1988 Consistant servant of the US Constitution:

                                                Ron Paul is for: “We the People...”

                                                http://youtu.be/zfZ0a1irFPk

                                                  Reply#398 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:36 PM EST

                                                  A VOTE FOR RON PAUL: IS A VOTE FOR THE ALL AMERICAN PATRIOT = A VOTE FOR YOU!!!

                                                  Ron Paul MD. Served in Uniform:

                                                  http://youtu.be/F7wK5qaNOtY

                                                  Ron Paul: “What if...”

                                                  http://youtu.be/tjuUWr9vaXo

                                                  Ron Paul: “Think what if...”

                                                  http://youtu.be/V36MT5lAMrc

                                                    Reply#399 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:55 PM EST

                                                    I'm a democrat but if I had to vote between B Obama and Ron Paul I would vote for Ron Paul

                                                      Reply#400 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:54 PM EST

                                                      Nobody is unelectable in this country, given the right background, connections and of course, absurd amounts of private sponsorship and media exposure. How do people think Obama came to power so quickly? Did you also see the BBC's coverage, when they asked people why they voted for him, and they said it was because of his skin color?! These were I believe college students. I kid you not.

                                                      The same sentiment was repeated on American streets, it was like the whole thing from start to finish was one big foregone conclusion. Fast-forward to the present and take a look at what we actually got, including his approval ratings.

                                                      Pull every card, it makes no difference. Promise the world. As long as you do the right things for the people who really run this country: the private offshore interests you'll walk. Left or right-wing..two cheeks from the same stink.

                                                        Reply#401 - Sat Dec 31, 2011 11:53 PM EST

                                                        Ron Paul regularly return a portion of his salary to the people's budget

                                                        He will only be taking a small portion of his Congressional pension and benefits when he leave Congress

                                                        He is against Americans dying in foreign countries for another country

                                                        He wants to use American tax dollars to improve American lives instead of giving it as foreign aid

                                                        He wants every American in this free country to live as free responsible adults owning up to the consequences their actions, the good and the bad

                                                        He wants the states to take back powers to better manage and work with its people on a more direct and collaborative level (eliminated federal agencies duties would revert back to states)

                                                        He wants to guarantee all Americans the rights and liberty promised to them by the laws of the land

                                                        He wants the gov't to get back to working for the people instead of managing the people by eliminating the money-influences in regulations (when you have smaller gov't there is more accountability)

                                                        He wants to prosecute all who committed fraud against the American people

                                                        He legislated to audit the Feds, relentlessly pushed the agenda through to find the corruption that this private establishment has perpetrated against Americans (the results from the audit were blocked from the American people)

                                                        He voted consistently to preserve the above issues for 30 years

                                                        He is on the Financial Service, Foreign Affairs, Domestic Monetary Policy, etc. Committees in Congress

                                                        He, while working in Congress, has won the National Taxpayers Union, Citizens Against Government Waste, the Council for a Competitive Economy, and countless other people awards

                                                        He is a veteran, a medical doctor, loyal husband, dad, and grandfather

                                                        And he speaks honestly and truthfully

                                                        HOW can anyone who claims to be a faithful American not respect or support this man with such values?

                                                        • 1 vote
                                                        Reply#402 - Sun Jan 1, 2012 12:58 AM EST

                                                        The good news is after Iowa Newt will have plenty of time to pursue Michelle. Mrs. Newt #4?

                                                        • 1 vote
                                                        Reply#403 - Sun Jan 1, 2012 1:08 AM EST

                                                        So I've been thinking about this whole Iowa Caucus thingy and this is what I think is going down:

                                                        Ron Paul should be the nominee...Romney will be the nominee.

                                                        I believe Ron Paul is the best choice for the Republican nomination because he represents true die hard conservative values: Freedom of speech, action, economy, and discrrimination...He also pledges to get us away form Iraq and Afghanistan and also it sounds like to diminish the defense footprint overseas. This translates into many hundreds of thousands of lost jobs in the Federal government including DoD not to mention the different Cabinet positions he wishes to disavow and dismantle. Government is too big.

                                                        This is why he should be President...and also why he won't be President or the nominee. His views are so incredibly controversial and yet make so much sense that it is hard to not like him and to treat him as the dog we want to win in the fight. He is passionate though his base is passionate enough for the entire Caucus and on many issues he is on the money, literaly. It is fact that he predicted (guessed right) that the economy would collapse resulting from the giant black hole of the credit market. More importantly than that, however, is the fact that Ron Paul predicted how the economy was going to collapse and why. His solution: government is too big.

                                                        Government wishes to have its hands in every cookie jar in the economy. If it moves tax it. In the case of the credit markets the Government was subsidizing the housing markets in order to drive people into buying homes while backing up and insuring these mortgages made by the banks. Many questions were raised after the housing market collapse which were known but were kept from the frightened ears of the public. The web of leverage came unwound seemingly overnight and many bankers were let off free at the price of the public's labor. When the Government bailed out Fannie and Freddie we became in part a socialist nation but a perverted one where the taxpayers owned the products of production but had no control over its means of distribution nor production. Therefore we dug ourselves into the depths of debt to which end now we are still recovering.

                                                        Ron Paul's answer was simple: let the banks fail. This answer is why Ron Paul should be President...and why he wont be President. His ideas are just dangerous enough to succeed in applying the rule of law to the markets. If the bankers didnt "break" any actual laws by God the laws of economics would. The liquidation of assets would be necessary to break the credit crunch and the housing market. The shock would have been much steeper but also much shorter. Bush hardly wished to go down with a 20% unemployment rate at the end of his Presidency even if it was only half his fault. Unfortunately, the Government did underwrite these loans and now the taxpayer is on the hook for his neighbor's mortgage. Of course, we aren't really since we are in a spiral of debt which will collapse the day there is a safer bet than t-bills.

                                                        Ron Paul wishes to end the income tax. This is why Ron Paul should be President...and why he won't be President. The income tax is looked to by many conservatives as the antithesis of freedom and free markets. The sixteenth amendment was ratified following many rejections by various appeallate courts in the United States including the US Supreme Court. The income tax is a tax on the factors of production rather than the product markets. Unfortunately, due to leakage and the underground economy the taxes generally create a negative feedback on the markets...ie, people send their money to places which can hide their money the best. This results in a net drain of autonomous investment which results in a recessionary trend which can only be countered with an increase in Government spending which will require greater taxes or greater deficits, which reduces investment..ect... Ron Paul wishes to do away with the income tax because it will spur privet investment which will always lead to job creation. (Does government use the multiplier excuse to expand its bureucracy?)

                                                        These are all great reasons to elect Ron Paul...and these are all great reasons why Ron Paul will not become the President of the United States. People like what they know. People fear change. This obviously includes politicians who cannot make a decision without pulling out their political abacus. Ron Paul would shake up the system so badly that anyone who would lose Federal dollars would band together and force Paul's hand into keeping many programs in place. Not least of which would be the DoD which accounts for 4.7% of our GDP and thousands of jobs across the Nation. Does Ron Paul really believe he can negate the growth of the DoD? What about the Departments of Energy, Interior, EPA, Education, and Commerce. these jobs are locked in tight and their lobbies are ferocious. The best Ron Paul could do if he went to war with his own administration would be to reduce the number of employees and their salary and benefits.

                                                        Ron Paul's desire to move away from confrontation with Iran is testy and bold. On one had you have Iran's poven desire to obtain nuclear weapons and they will build one (or a hundred if given the chance) on the other if the US does back off Iran will have less incentive to build a nuclear weapon. It is an intreguing hypothesis and one which deserves debate. However American votes are a product of fear and it would not take much to scare them into preserving or multiplying the sanctions on Iran.

                                                        The income tax will never be repealed. At this point even if a better system is found it will not be implemented. The most Ron Paul could hope for would be to create a flat tax or at least as flat as he could get it.

                                                        Ron Paul was right about the housing market. Unfortunately, that doesnt mean that his desires to liberate the system will succeed. The Federal Reserve ownes much of our housing sector which is backed up by federal reserve notes (magic imaginary fairy tale money). Because the Federal Reserve acts independently of the White House Paul's lamenting could only have a minimal affect on the Fed's policy actions. Therefore I see this as a dead point and one which should be inconsequential in this race. What Paul could do, however, is order Fannie and Freddie to stop underwriting loan guarantees for housing which could cause loan prices to increase however the investments will be smarter down the road.

                                                        In the end, however, Romney is the go to candidate. He can definitly hold his own in a debate and his is damn near the poser child for the Republican Party. Ultimately, Ron Paul should be the nominee however Romney will prevail because it is more improtant for the Republicans to defeat Obama than to institute the kind of sweeping reforms desired by the Catonians. Romney will expand the sanctions against Iran and will grow the federal buereucracy. In fact, it will be very difficult to tell the difference between Romney, Obama, and Bush 2.0.

                                                        Romney has the best chance of beating Obama therefore he will become the nominee.

                                                        • 2 votes
                                                        Reply#404 - Sun Jan 1, 2012 7:34 AM EST

                                                        The government is never a source for goods -- only steals from one to give to another. No jobs will be lost in the long run if the government is downsized.

                                                          #404.1 - Mon Jan 2, 2012 6:17 AM EST
                                                          Reply
                                                            Reply#405 - Sun Jan 1, 2012 11:49 AM EST

                                                            From this weeks "Economist"

                                                            "Nowadays, a candidate must believe not just some but all of the following things: that abortion should be illegal in all cases; that gay marriage must be banned even in states that want it; that the 12 million illegal immigrants, even those who have lived in America for decades, must all be sent home; that the 46 m people who lack health insurance have only themselves to blame; that global warming is a conspiracy; that any form of gun control is unconstitutional; that any form of tax increase must be vetoed, even if the increase is only the canceling of an expensive and market-distorting perk; that Israel can do no wrong and the "so-called Palestinians", to use Mr Gingrich's term, can do no right; that the Environmental Protection Agency the Department of Education and others whose names you do not have to remember, should be abolished. These fatwas......have stifled ideas, making the Republican Party the enemy of creative positions it once pioneered. The idea of requiring every American to carry health insurance (thus broadening the insurance pool and reducing costs) originated in the conservative Heritage Foundation as a response to Clinton-care, and was put into practice by then-Governor Romney in Massachusetts. All this Mr Romney has had to disavow, just as Mr. Gingrich has had to recant his ideas on climate change, while Rick Perry is still explaining his appalling laxity as governor of Texas in allowing the children of illegal immigrants to receive subsidised college education."

                                                              Reply#406 - Sun Jan 1, 2012 3:44 PM EST
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