E-mail updates
Follow on Twitter
Subscribe to RSSIn the past two weeks, support has fallen sharply in Iowa for Republican presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul are running neck-and-neck in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is surging and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich collapsing just four days before the state's Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll.
Romney drew the support of 23 percent of likely caucus-goers in Iowa – identified based on interest, chance of voting and past participation – ahead of Paul, at 21 percent.
They are followed by Santorum at 15 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 14 percent, Gingrich at 13 percent and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 6 percent.
The Republican presidential hopefuls are in high gear with just days left until the Iowa caucuses. NBC's Peter Alexander reports.
The poll numbers, which are similar to those published in a recent CNN/Time survey, represent a reversal of fortune for Gingrich, as well as an improvement for Santorum and (to a lesser extent) Perry. The NBC-Marist poll conducted in late November had Gingrich in the lead among likely caucus-goers at 28 percent, Romney and Paul tied at 19 percent, Perry at 10 percent, Bachmann at 7 percent and Santorum at 6 percent.
“More than half of [Gingrich’s] support has evaporated,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey.
Negative advertising hits Gingrich 'on the chin'
Miringoff adds that the millions of dollars in negative TV ads targeting Gingrich – from a pro-Romney Super PAC and the Paul campaign – have played a major role in this erosion, with 35 percent of likely caucus-goers now saying he’d be unacceptable as the GOP’s nominee. That’s a 19-point increase from last month.
"The fight I'm in with Romney is exactly the fight that Reagan was in with the establishment in '80," GOP presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich tells NBC's Chuck Todd in a one-on-one interview.
What’s more, only 6 percent in the survey identify Gingrich as the “true conservative” in the Republican contest.
“He took it on the chin,” Miringoff says of the negative advertising campaign, which has questioned Gingrich’s conservative credentials and tied him to Washington.
Splintered Tea Party support
Although just 7 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers believe that Romney is the true conservative in the GOP field, he has two variables working in his favor, according to the poll. One, only 21 percent of likely caucus-goers say he’s unacceptable as the Republican nominee (compared with 35 percent for Gingrich and 41 percent for Paul).
And two, the conservative vote appears to be splintering between the various candidates, and is no longer coalescing around a single Romney challenger.
The wild card in this race has been and continues to be Ron Paul, the Libertarian who has a growing following inside the Republican Party. NBC's Chuck Todd has more.
Last month, Gingrich had a large lead over Romney (and the other GOP rivals) among Tea Party supporters.
But in this new poll, Tea Party supporters – who make up about half of all likely caucus-goers – are divided.
Santorum gets 20 percent from them, Romney and Paul 17 percent, Gingrich 16 percent, Perry 15 percent and Bachmann 10 percent.
“This is the Romney dream scenario,” Miringoff says. “When you look at the Tea Party and conservatives, they are all splintered.”
Obama’s approval rating ticks up in Iowa
The poll also shows an improvement in President Barack Obama’s approval rating in Iowa.
Forty-five percent of registered voters in the state approve of him, while 43 percent disapprove.
Last month, those numbers were upside down, with 43 approving and 46 disapproving.
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum vaults past Newt Gingrich and into third place in the GOP presidential race in Iowa, according to a new poll. Santorum talks to TODAY's Savannah Guthrie about the surge, his conservative values and why he can beat Barack Obama in the general election.
The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted Dec. 27-28 of 2,905 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) and of 433 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.7 percentage points).
Also, unlike the recent CNN-Time poll, the likely voter model in the NBC-Marist survey included independents and a few Democrats, and it measured some respondents by cell phone.
Follow Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) on Twitter.
More from First Read:
- Paul's surge might help Romney in Iowa
- Bachmann campaign loses 2nd key staffer in Ron Paul flap
- Huntsman says Paul is 'unelectable'
- Pro-Gingrich Super PAC: Romney is '2nd most dangerous man in America'
Leave a Comment:
Both sides Dems and Reps fear Ron Paul, so I am guessing Ron Paul would be the man to vote for.
You want change well it seems getting back to the original standing of the Constitution would be the way to go.
Ron Paul 2012 let the hate begin but you can bet he is a player in this years event..
Hey Jerry,
Slavery was implicitly OK in the "original standing" of the constitution...that OK with you, too?
Both sides Dems and Reps fear Ron Paul,
Sure -- just like they feared Palin then Huckabee then Pawlenty then Trump then Christie the Perry then Bachmann then Pizza Man then Newt so now it's Paul's turn. Ron Paul has a very loyal and a very SMALL group of supporters.
FACTS:
Ron Paul WILL NOT win the Republican nomination.
If he runs as a 3rd party candidate, he will not get more than 5% of the vote.
I agree that Ron Paul is probably the best person to take over this countru. Certainly better than any of the other GOP/TP candidates. Try to imagine what we woulud be facing if Bachmann actually made it to the White House.
Back to Paul. I think that he hasn't been the focus of attack ads because he is not taken seriously by the other candidates. He will though.
He has pretty high morals, so it won't hurt too much, but you can see the effect of these ads. We all say we hate them, but look how many people listened to the ones on the Grinch. They work.
I can't wait to see how they explain away Ron Paul after he wins Iowa and New Hampshire. Soon, the presidency itself won't mean anything if Ron Paul wins according to the logic presented in this "news article".
I didn't write this but it hits the nail on the head.
Sorry but the only lesson is for TEATARDS, REPUKES, NEOCONS and ALL THE JERK WATER HILLBILLYS IN FLY OVER COUNTRY!!! Mitts your only chance!! PERIOD!!! He's from the North East!! He is EDUCATED!! HE IS THE KING OF RINOS probably more liberal than OBAMA and He is a MORMON and he is your ONLY CHANCE to beat Obama in 2012.. (which he wont)
There will be NO TEXAS TEATARDS!!! NO LAZY EYED BIBLE THUMPING ZEALOTS FROM THE MIDWEST, NO UNCLE RUCKUS MINSTREL SHOW FROM SOME PIZZA FLIPPIN YAZZA BOZZIN MOLESTER!!!
MITT IS YOUR ONLY CHANCE!!! LOL and Obama WILL bounce Mitts Flippity, Floppity butt all over the debates.... Obama will expose Mitt as the RINO we all know and love....
SOoOOoOOoOooOoOooO. Your best bet is to JUST STAY YOUR TEATARD BUTTS HOME Next November!!!
ugh.
This post is the equivalent of having dodged a thrown mudball, and it coming back and hitting you on the back of the head.
Either way it was bad. I could have done without reading that.
SigShane: Agreed. The hook, "I didn't write this but it hits the nail on the head," caught my attention, but after reading the post, I wish that I hadn't.
but after reading the post, I wish that I hadn't.
But -- it's true. When all this is said and done --- The Republicans will end up with Romney -- the RINO of all RINOs.
Sounded like Charlie Sheen! I knew it wasn't because "WINNER" wasn't mentioned.
Much like "WINNER" won't be mentioned with regard to any of the Republican candidates after November, 2012.
There is one important item where most would likely agree on and that is a candidate that would not be a puppet for corporations, reduce military spending, address the unemployment problem and most of all is not against the American people.
Romney and Gingrich are not for the people. Ron Paul is a likely candidate but if he is elected he will most likely be assasinated by our own government and this would cause a revolution. So what is the best choice?
the tea party has come home to roost. we are a three party country now with the electorate forced to vote into a 2 party system one of which has a multiple personalities. The Repubs will never recover from this as the are now splintered into The Evangelicals, Ultra Conservatives, Libertarians, Right of Center Moderates and left leaning Democrats dressed as Republicans They are done in this upcoming general election already and may be done as a party altogether
You are probably right about the splintered party, however, it is not unusual for splintered groups to band together on an issue that is desired by each of the splintered groups. They may very well come together to defeat Obama. If the economy improves considerably Obama may recover, if not I believe he is a one termer. As things stand now I believe the democrats would be better positioned with someone else selected as their candidate. The odds of this happening are about the same as Palin be selected on the republican side.
the single unifying issue seems to be NO ABORTIONS even in case of rape or incest. Not the thing that is going to unify the party IMHO
I see the tea party and the republicans as conjoined twins, with two talking heads.
Iowa GOP explains moving vote tabulation away from HQ
1774 precints-how does one have campaign representatives for each precint accomapny the votes to where tabulation happens? 6 candidatesx1774 precients=10,000+ individuals in the night moving the votes to a 'location'? Won't happen..3 people cannot keep a secret(location). So the ballots will be in the posession of the few. Will they be 'stuffed'? Precounted and first? Locked in a box during transport? 1774 locks? 1774 boxes? Won't happen. Will the transporters be searched first, will they be trailed, will they bemonitored in the transport vehicles, will the vehicles be search before transport and after?
The Party is simply moving off-site-NOT SIMPLE.
said it was only to avoid a sabotage.- When simplicty is gone..duplicity steps in.
Those slips are collected, taken to a table, and counted in the open.- To bad people are emotional about their candidate, too bad the democratic process is some times messy, arguementative. Too bad it is inconveinent to have to deal with the basic premiss of one person one vote.
The answer is not to avail simplicity where there can be no simple solution, the answer is to avail an open vote. Deal with it GOP. Like it has always been dealt with, infront of everybody, no secret location, no unknown transfers.
The Republicans made themselves crazy, and in the process unacceptable. Every time a light is shone upon one of their candidates it becomes revealed how crazy and unacceptable that candidate is. So we've witnessed a progression of false hopes being raised, only to be dashed by the light of reality.
It's a good thing that the American public is not as crazy as the Republican candidates. I was beginning to think we're done as a modern and prosperous democracy - now I only wonder if we are finished as a First Tier nation.
Come back to the center, Republicans. Turn away from fascism, all of you. Then you'll find yourselves more acceptable to the American people. As for we Americans, don't expect this to happen any time soon; they're corrupt or crazy, to a man or woman. Either they serve some weird ideological agenda, or a bunch of Big Money. Either way, that makes them unacceptable.
Regardless of who wins the presidential race, I really REALLY want to see Mitch McConnell GONE. That is one derisive, spiteful little man.
He is like that weird, bullied kid in grade school that gains the opportunity to exact revenge on his tormentors after many years of being picked on. This may be novel in movies or books, but not in a position where his malicious decisions affect the people of a nation.
He is Plankton, Neville, Severus Snape all rolled up in one beady-eyed little person.
Mitch the Tea Party's BITCH.
The Grinch won't steal Iowa. Of all the clowns marching back and forth, the only candidates which have my respect are Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul. It would be great if they shared the Republican ticket. How about the Dementedrats? Why can't Joe make a run or how about Hillarious again. You can't really believe anything Obamonkey says or does, or rather doesn't. I can see how this room full of Republicans is concerning conservatives and unable to make a decision are going to wait until things are a bit more settled. Until the GOP makes a decision the election is still in doubt.
Bachmann and Paul on the same ticket?? That would be great -- for the Democrats.
The only hope to get these country back on track is RON PAUL.
My fellow Americans - Please try to understand that you do not need a large government to regulate everything you do. This is not freedom. We have more laws and rules than any other "free" country in the world. Let me simplify a couple of Ron Paul's positions.
Let The States Make The Laws and Regulations and give the power back to the STATE.
Drugs: Many states have legalized Marijuana, but not the Federal Gov't. So if you buy a drug legally in a state the federal gov't can still arrest you. Not good. Ron Paul wants to legalize all drugs and let the STATE make the laws enforcing the drugs. All states have their own drug laws.
Most large companies have left our country because of regulation and taxation by the federal gov't. Again, let the states decide how they will treat big business (and little ones).
Please go to whyronpaul dot com to find out the truth about Ron Paul's beliefs and stop repeating what the main stream media wants you to believe. We are smarter than them. Use alternative news sources like the internet to get your real news.
Let's return to the constitution that all law-makers and enforcers swear to. Let's return to the gold-standard for a strong economy. Let's stop policing the world. Let's elect RON PAUL for the future of our great county.
I like a lot of Ron Paul's notions, but tell me, what exactly do the people gain from legalizing pot? That seems to be a highlight of his philosophy - does Ron burn down? Is he sick of having to cross state lines to get his chronic?
I am being silly, of course, but really. Do we need legalized marijuana? We do need debt reduction, we do need better immigration control, and we definitely DO need government to be renovated, if not outright overhauled. But pot?
TroyNeal,
Like many of you ilk, you are misinformed and dangerously naive.
So, if Alabama thinks it is in its best interest to re-establish Jim Crow laws, poll taxes, and "separate but (un)equal," then that should be OK? How far do we take the state's rights thing? Slavery was Ok in the "original" constitution, too, so should the states have a free hand in that again?
This constant clamoring to get back to the "original intent" is nothing but cloaked racism and backwardness.
Yes, that darn regulation. Clean air and water - who needs it. And taxation? Taxes have never been lower - where are the jobs. Until all regulation is gone and we go back to slave and child labor so the corporate execs can make hundreds of billions in profits, we will not see a return to USA large manufacturing. What a way to live. You would deny fair wages for workers but you rally behind exhorbitant profits for corporations. You deny a clean environment but hail outrageous profits for corporations. We can have a clean environment, we can have fair wages but the corporations will only be able to have tens of billions in profit instead of hundreds.
Obama/Biden 2012
ModerateIndy, have you actually read the past few administrations actions regarding anything you mentioned above? How the laws have been changed regarding polution and corporations left to keep monies overseas so as not to be taxed? Hell, even keeping GE from paying taxes while OBAMA brings on Immelt to "help the economy".
Please..............Ron Paul 2012
While the Republican merry-go-round has been amusing, not a single candidate has been willing to be transparent on the one thing that matters the most to American citizens: their plans for job creation and bolstering up our economy. IMO, if a candidate had a plan they really believed in and felt would be workable for the masses, they would be touting it and standing at the ready to defend it.
(crickets chirping)
Pelosi (I'm not a fan) was derided repeatedly for her, "If you want to know what's in the bill, vote for it" - but how are the vague, rhetorical responses of the Republican candidates any different? Agree or disagree with his plan, but at least President Obama was willing to offer up his intentions to the public... from the day the Republican party gained a majority in Congress, we've heard nothing but, "We have a better plan", but as of yet, not a single politician has clearly outlined what the plan is. This smacks of "get me into office then I'll reveal a half-baked plan designed to help no one but those whom helped me into office"; yeah, the beat goes on.
Quite frankly, I do believe Romney will be the eventual winner. Ron Paul is just too far out there on too many issues for the Republican fan base to jump on his wagon, and the other high-profile candidates have doomed themselves. I will even go so far as to say Romney has a few ideas that could be workable and accepted by Democrats. That is what is needed more than anything: whomever eventually takes up the White House needs to make it clear bipartisan measures are vital to prevent the collapse of our country. We have been standing on the edge of a really high cliff with an unstable footing for too long already. The time for ALL of these politicians to stop their preening has long since passed. Our fellow citizens are losing everything they've worked for and if this trend continues, there WILL be a revolt of the masses.
"This smacks of "get me into office then I'll reveal a half-baked plan designed to help no one but those whom helped me into office"
Yeah, and if not that, then "whatever it takes to get rid of THAT guy, and those things HE was saying".
Not only do the GOP congress-folks not have any meaningful plan to speak of, they are not even educated on Obama's plans, they just oppose them because McConnell or Boehner tell them to.
Well, one thing is for SURE: if a GOP candidate does win the White House, he/she better damn well fix this leaky boat, and SOON, or the GOP will certainly be finished, their credibility shot to Hell.
Cathy: In general I agree with your comments, however, I believe most of the candidates do lay out a plan for the issues you stated at their website. The senate (democrat contolled) and the house (republican controled) have blocked bills from getting to vote. It seems to me they should be required to vote on a bill passed by the other side, i.e. if the house sends a bill to the senate or the senate sends a bill to the house.
President Obama tried the bipartisan approach - it didn't work. The GOP didn't wait to destroy our country so they could destroy our president. They started that mantra on day one by fillibustering everything that would help our nation. That is why I get so irritated with the whiners who claim to have voted for Obama but are so disappointed. Did you expect a magic wand? The president always said this would be a long hard struggle to undo the mess from past presidents. But when it wasn't undone immediately, the whining began. Get the GOP/TP out of office completely and give our president the ability to get things done.
GOP choices: A cultist or a racist... Congrats Obama, you got 2012 locked up.
Oh that's pretty good GOP, choice between a freaking coo coo that will send us back a 100 years or the poster boy for the 1%. Lots of luck, you are going to need it!
I know it's not all of what he say's, and I know lines like this make the two minutes news stories, BUT if Romney really wants to be a serious candidate he needs to have something better to say than the "Repubs need to replace Obama" (paraphrased). What about how he, or any of them, will get Americans working again, or how they will fix the deficit, or they will work with countries in the Middle East now that the Arab Spring has take hold. If the only people Romney is speaking to are Obama haters he will not win.
+ 100000000 on this comment
alan: Check his website. He does lay out a plan to address these issues. To me the question is whether is plan is better than the others.
@ Alan: I agree 100%. But I think also is that the GOP canidiates are pandering to just the repub voters right now. After the primary, we'll see more of a contrast between Obama and the loser -oops, I mean the repub side.
If you think about it. Things are slowly getting better, despite numerous attempts by the Party of Noo to tank our economy for over 2 years. So there probably wont be a whole lot that the GOP side will be able to put forward, other than name calling the the same old jr high school stuff that they usually do. Perhaps the best they will do is march out some old-timers (McCain) to say how we should have stayed in two middle east wars (or that we should start some new ones).
First, I really hate going back later and finding stupid typos in what I wrote. :-)
Second, CKSM, I am sure he has a more detailed plan on his site, but like the President and all the others running, he has the challenge of getting the detail out there. It's not the stuff of stump speeches. You can blame the media a little, but if the candidate repeats the same thing over and over it will be what gets on TV or radio. And realize that not everyone has access or the where with all to find the website. America is putting choosing presidents in the hands of those informed (or misinformed) by what they see on a computer screen. Not exactly a true representation of the country.
so obama is up & Newt is down in Iowa.....just goes to show how little the rest of the country cares about Iowa
Folks, folks...Iowa is so utterly irrelevant as to be comical. Since 1972, Iowa has only picked the eventual GOP nominee twice in the five races with no incumbent. I don't often quote Faux news, but : http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/12/29/iowas-record-picking-gop-winners-spotty-despite-caucus-fanfare/#ixzz1i1SjQMfx
It will become even more irrelevant if Ron Paul, whose chances of actually WINNING the 2012 general election are slim to none, wins in Iowa. Our city council elections here draw more voters that the Iowa caucuses.
Well, Guess... with only two tangible parties in this country he has to run as a Republican. No way he could win as an Independent; and he would be laughed at if he ran as a conservative Democrat.
Newt Gingrich: A legend in his own mind.
How can Ron Paul claim to be Republican? A lot of his foreign policy ideas are way to the left of Obama's. If he wins the nomination, I bet we will see the largest ever number of Republicans voting for a Democrat.
Wow, the GOP is down to Huntsman to ride the roller coaster.
neck to neck what a bunch a bolony ron paul clearly in all polls and independant polls not nbc mainstream media is ahead of everybody else
Noot being the Frontrunner was sooo uncomfortable..... thank goodness thats over now...
Our nations only hope for recovery is Ron Paul MD. I am hoping there are not enough rich people in Iowa that will have the need to vote for Robmee or Blingrich to protect their wealth and their financial loopholes.
The GOP Calvacade of Clowns should write and sign a "Unconditional Surrender" letter to the American people and POTUS Obama-go back to their holes in the ground and save all that money-or better yet give it towards paying down the national debt. This Independent from Texas shudders in dismay at any one of them being elected-Who are they really going to represent ? They all are bought and paid for by special interests of which none represent the middle-class, small business, or the working poor !
Give it up people we are here to stay Ron Paul 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!