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COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Shopping at a mall here on Wednesday night, Scott Robertson, a 48-year-old pastor from nearby Lexington, said he just wasn’t that into the South Carolina primary election.
Not yet, at least.
“I just think I’m too busy,” he said. “As it gets closer, I’ll probably pay a lot more attention to it as I hear more about it.”
While the first-in-the-South primary is less than a month away, some South Carolina political observers say voters like Robertson are the norm and won’t get seriously engaged in picking a candidate until voting in the two earlier states begins.
“Frankly, people are still worrying about all the Christmas presents they’re going to have to give,” Republican consultant Chip Felkel said. “South Carolinians will probably start paying attention to it the day after the Iowa caucuses.”
Despite the relative lack of enthusiasm here (a recent NBC/Marist poll found 57% of likely voters did not strongly support a candidate), campaigns have been preparing for the Jan. 21 primary for months. While some have tapped into the state’s traditional grassroots groups and consultants, others are staying relatively under the radar with occasional bursts of activity.
The variety of ground games here underscores this cycle’s uncertainty -- especially given the roller-coaster rise and fall of several candidates. And in a state that has picked every eventual GOP nominee since 1980, some Republicans are wondering whether it’s still necessary to invest in a long ground game here, or simply wait until all eyes are on South Carolina to flood the state.
Traditional routes
A few campaigns are organizing the kind of large campaign infrastructure that has helped candidates in the past. For example, Rick Perry -- who has 13 staffers here -- lined up endorsements from big donors and more than 20 state legislators shortly after announcing his presidential bid in Charleston in August. At the same time, he is tapping into the state’s large veteran base and evangelical voters.
Perry’s state chair Katon Dawson, who worked for George W. Bush’s 2000 campaign, said he expects to activate such boots-on-the-ground operations during the “72-hour program,” in which campaigns engage their network of supporters in the final stretch.
“We’re probably not going to have a feel for this vote, in all honesty, until a couple days before. And then the get out the vote program starts working,” said Dawson, a former South Carolina Republican Party chairman.
Perry’s efforts have and will be bolstered by large ad buys in the state’s four major media markets, Greenville, Columbia, Charleston, and Myrtle Beach. The pro-Perry Super PAC Make Us Great Again has already spent $1.8 million in TV advertising here -- the most by far of any campaign.
But Perry’s high-profile supporters and media pushes have not paid off here -- at least so far. He sat at 6% in the latest NBC/Marist poll, reflective of his numbers in other key states.
The traditional route also has not worked for Jon Huntsman, who hired Richard Quinn, John McCain’s former campaign adviser, and racked up early endorsements from high-profile politicians. But the former Utah governor sits at 3% in the NBC/Marist poll.
And while Rick Santorum touts that he’s visited South Carolina the most, he has not made inroads here, getting 2% in the poll. But Santorum did recently announce a long list of county chairmen throughout 41 of the state’s 46 counties.
Felkel said that grassroots coalitions matter less now than they have in previous years -- a dynamic that first appeared in 2002, during then-Rep. Mark Sanford’s first run for office.
“He never had what you would call a grassroots campaign. It was all media,” Felkel said.
Mini-Newts and online headquarters
While Newt Gingrich started small here, his staff here has grown with his poll numbers. His campaign here began with two former American Solutions employees, to which five more were added in November. And there are now 12.
While all other campaigns are based in Columbia, Gingrich’s headquarters are in the Upstate city of Greenville. But he has four other offices throughout the state in North Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Columbia and Bluffton (near Hilton Head).
As his popularity grew, Gingrich quickly pulled together a list of 40 county co-chairs in 26 of the 46 counties, as well as the endorsements of at least two full Tea Party groups (Myrtle Beach and Laurens) and many individual members.
Leslie Gaines, Gingrich’s state co-chair, said his original two staffers (Adam Waldek and Vince Haley) have done Tea Party outreach here for years on behalf of American Solutions, so Gingrich already had a natural base in the state.
“It helps to have mini-Newts” on the ground, Gaines said, adding that Gingrich will be doing a bus tour of the state beginning Jan. 11, the day after the New Hampshire primary.
Michele Bachmann’s campaign has also been consolidating Tea Party support, putting together a 56-member Tea Party coalition with whom senior advisor Wesley Donehue says he communicates through Facebook and emails.
Donehue heads a seven-member staff that operates without a central office, and says he sends marching orders to more than 1,200 supporters every day. On Wednesday, supporters were asked to make phone calls to Iowa, where the Bachmann campaign’s initial fate rests.
Donehue said he seeks to capitalize on Bachmann’s post-Iowa momentum in South Carolina -– something Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 but lost to McCain in South Carolina, failed to do.
“He came out of Iowa with all that momentum and then got into South Carolina, where he should have had a strong game but he had no way to catch that momentum.”
Also looking to capitalize on a strong Iowa showing is Ron Paul, who has almost no presence here, despite a steady stream of large direct mail pieces and a devoted corps of supporters who hold "sign bombs" for him throughout the state.
But the two preceding contests are not always indicative of South Carolina’s outcome. Of the five contested primaries over the last three decades, Palmetto State Republicans have only aligned with Iowa twice, in 1996 (Dole) and 2000 (Bush), and New Hampshire three times, in 1980 (Reagan), 1988 (H.W. Bush) and 2008 (McCain).
“These are the guys who in 1860 decided to fire on Fort Sumter, OK?” joked Clemson politics professor and Republican consultant David Woodard. He added that voters here “like somebody that they think can win,” noting the Christian Coalition-backed Pat Robertson, who won Iowa in 1988 and was expected to win here but lost to George H.W. Bush.
“They take seriously the responsibilities of picking the winner of the primary here for 30 years and they’re a little more in the middle of the bell curve than sometimes the press gives them credit for,” Woodard said.
Late blitz
Perhaps no campaign is betting more on South Carolina taking their role seriously but tuning in later this year than Mitt Romney’s. The former Massachusetts governor, who came in fourth here in 2008, has three staffers and one headquarters in a nondescript building in West Columbia -- away from the other campaign offices across the Congaree River in downtown Columbia.
While volunteers are phone-banking within the headquarters, perhaps a telling sign of Romney’s ground game lies in the experience of David Root, an Air Force veteran who was invited to participate in a Veterans’ Day roundtable with the candidate in November.
While he gave his contact information at the event, Root said he received no follow-up contact from the Romney camp. “That was it,” he said, adding that he was “surprised and disappointed” that the campaign hadn’t reached out to him (although he said he wouldn’t vote for Romney anyway).
But Romney has been giving South Carolina voters incremental tastes of his campaign’s capabilities, holding several high-production events that got major play on local evening news -- one thing the average voter might catch from time to time this early out.
And just recently, the campaign got a big boost when Romney got the endorsement of Gov. Nikki Haley, a national Tea Party darling despite low statewide approval; purchased more than $85,000 in cable ad time; and was received warmly from voters across the state.
“We have a strong ground game in South Carolina. And in the closing weeks before the primary, our team and volunteers will continue to reach out to voters across the state and make the case that Mitt Romney is the best candidate to beat Barack Obama,” Romney spokesman Amanda Hennenberg said in an email.
That saturation is the type of late blitz the Romney campaign could deploy here after New Hampshire if they think it will work this time, unlike in 2008. But with the campaign currently trailing Newt Gingrich by double digits, that might be a gamble, said Felkel.
“The roll of the dice is, can you win [the primary] without a grassroots game? And I think Romney will prove that that may be the case if he’s able to come from behind,” he said.
“Going through the motions”
Grassroots activists aside, the lack of enthusiasm this time around is palpable to Brad Warthen, former editorial page editor at The State newspaper, who characterized campaigns’ presence here as “going through the motions.”
By this time in 2008, Warthen said, several candidates had come to The State for editorial board meetings. But this cycle, only Huntsman has sat with the editorial board so far.
“What I’m accustomed to in the past is by this time everybody would have been pretty excited for months,” Warthen said. “It’s just a weird year.”
But while Warthen and others might characterize this cycle as unusual, the eventual winner of the South Carolina primary will likely tout the state’s perfect record of picking presidents as he or she looks to add one more name to the state’s 30-year roster of nominees.
After all, the winner will likely say, it’s not for nothing that the motto of the South Carolina Republican Party is, “We pick presidents.”
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Very typical greedy southern republican they questioned about voting in the first paragraph...He was worried about the present he was gonna " Have to give " not want to give because it is a season of giving...He will give to his greedy family and friends what is expected..UUUggghhh
Yo, sw philly - a big Merry Christmas to youse and yours from over here in Delaware County!
"And while Rick Santorum touts that he’s visited South Carolina the most, he has not made inroads here, getting 2% in the poll."
This being the season of goodwill and all, I'm gonna even find something kinda nice to say about my least favorite senator ever - he sure does get around and you have to give him points for trying. Unfortunately, South Carolina will probably prove to be no different for him than Iowa, where, to paraphrase the great Tommy Lee Jones as Lt. Gerard in "The Fugitive", Santorum has visited pretty much "every gas station, residence, warehouse, farmhouse, henhouse, outhouse and doghouse in that area", and he's still stuck at less than 5% of the vote. I think Santa needs to leave a nice big check in little Rick's stocking tomorrow night - a reality check, that is......
Hey, sw philly!
I got your back in some post or another yesterday, but now I can't find hide nor hair of it.
Anyway, I've been enjoying your posts--have a good holiday.
Same to you JoAnne--been enjoying your posts these past months, too.
Right back at you there, Jack - good to have you on board here. Are you the Portsmouth with Strawberry Banke? Been 20 years or more since I was there, but I remember the trip well - stopped there on our way up to Amy, Portland's neck of the woods. My best friend who I took the trip with liked it so much she ended up moving up to Concord. Hope to get up that way again some time soon! Have a great holiday.
My gosh, it's Christmas Eve, eve. Are the snipes and cheap shots going to continue all the way through the holiday? I can give as good as I get but somewhere along the way the nastiness should stop and take a pause, or is it really true that most liberals are completely anti-anything to do with God and the seasons represented through faith? Do you celebrate anything in the proper manner of peace and good will? Even in times of war, soldiers on both sides normally take a break.
My, my, my, the snipes that flow so freely like hemlock laced eggnog. While our illustrious first family will be vacationing in Hawaii, how many Americans are unemployed this Christmas season? How many jobs has Obama and the democrats created this year from their fiscal policies? Oh, I see, that's not their concern. While the leaders of this country sit behind their warm fireplaces sipping on their holiday drinks, the unemployed in this country struggle to make the payments on their electric bills, heating bills and find it hard to enjoy the Christmas dinner because they worry about meeting their obligations. In many households Christmas will be extremely meager because we have a government leadership that is more concerned about winning one job while disregarding the 8.9% of families struggling to find employment.
Oh, what the hell, if Obama is happy, the whole country is happy, eh? <-- a true liberal perspective.
#2.38 - Fri Dec 23, 2011 12:12 PM EST
sw philly - too harsh, I think. We're here because this is our interest. Most people are just trying to navigate the requirements of their own lives, and not paying any more attention to these children (from both parties) than they have to. Is that selfish or sane?
BrianB,
If it makes you feel any better, I am sitting here singing carols while playing with my cats.
phinephancy - you aren't teasing your cats, are you? String is a very cruel joke played on cats... LOL. The string always wins. Are you planning on breaking out the cat-nip? We used to always give our cat a good sprinkle on paper at Christmas time. It just seemed fitting for him to enjoy the "spirits" along with the adults in the house. After all, he was a member of the family too. Our cat loved turkey. He would sit in front of the oven all day while the turkey baked. Dad would feed him as much as he could eat after it was baked. It was quite humorous to watch the cat sit there and chew on the turkey without swallowing it because he was so full. You do realize cats won't ever over eat... unless they love turkey.... Oh the good old days...
Oh, BB, (sigh)
First you write: "Are the snipes and cheap shots going to continue all the way through the holiday? . . .somewhere along the way the nastiness should stop and take a pause. . . . Do you celebrate anything in the proper manner of peace and good will?"
And next you say: "While our illustrious first family will be vacationing in Hawaii, how many Americans are unemployed this Christmas season? How many jobs has Obama and the democrats created this year from their fiscal policies? Oh, I see, that's not their concern."
Do you ever pause to listen to what you're saying? I would call your remark about the President taking a vacation "snipes and cheap shots". Everybody deserves a vacation, and very few people work as hard as presidents (Congress doesn't seem to). Where is your "good will"? Jeez.
JoAnne,
Yes, that is the very same Portsmouth! Virtually every night my hour-long walk from my house takes me through Strawberry Banke and along the river. I keep telling Amy I have to get up to Portland for work-related stuff and want to get together with her for a coffee, but it just hasn't happened yet. But if you're ever back in this neck of the woods, please let me know!
Hey, Amy & phinephancy! Hope you have a nice holiday!
Brian,
The cats won, the string lost, and I have scratches all over my leg! Catnip is on the agenda for tomorrow night. I had some in the "kitty" stocking, but even through wrapping paper and the original packing, my male cat Frankie has sniffed it out and was "loving" the stocking! I had to hide the stocking in the laundry room. And the cats have an extra special "Fancy Feast" meal for both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Jack - Oh, poor poor Obama... working so hard. What is it with you? Why do you cry this pity party for Obama all the time? You act like he didn't want the job and did everything he could to avoid all the alleged work he does. I wouldn't have a problem with him taking a vacation, but when I and other people are sitting on the sidelines seeking work, I lose my compassion for the one taking a luxurious vacation on the public dime. You're darn right I attibute the high unemployment rate on him. Government policy, along with hundreds of new government regulations are impeding the growth of our country. This is no longer Bush's fault. Obama has the reigns and is guiding the sleigh. His jobs bill was a complete sham. Congress has over 6 versions of a job bill sitting on Harry Reid's table. Who do you think I should show my angst at? You? You didn't create the problem but there is someone in charge that could help instead of hurt. He just doesn't... and personally I feel it's on purpose. Can't grow the private sector while growing government...
Okay, Brian
Obama has the steering wheel,...so why do you guys keep reaching over and grabbing it toward the ditch? If YOUR very own derangement could be viewed from our prism,...I think you'd laugh at your own hypocrisy. Assuming you have the capacity for humor AND truthful introspection.
Perhaps I've gone too far? Have a good holiday, anyway.
Brian,
You are one bitter human being. Here's what I just wrote to Joe in Albany in a different post.
For your information . . . over the past 2 years I headed up a program involving stimulus funds, and it made a big difference to the economic health of the community. Both individuals and companies made it clear to me that they would have lost their jobs or would have had to lay off people were it not for the stimulus funds. Today all of them (individuals and companies) are still hanging in there, and the community as a whole benefited for the long term because it rebuilt infrastructure. Now, you may say that it was a waste of money, but those folks would disagree with you. And you know what? Most of them are Republicans.
Brian--So, I disagree that his jobs bill was a complete sham, and disagree that House's job bill is better than a sham. And as TruePatriot and David Walker and Jody and others have pointed out, it is impossible in just a couple of years to turn an economy around that was so close to another Great Depression. Plus, you are simply ignoring the fact that the Republicans (particularly in the House, but there is the ill-will in McConnell's "one term" remark also) have been obstructionists from Day One of the President's term in office. And for you to think that the President is purposely hurting the economy. . . . You are blinded by hatred, and I think it goes deeper than you are willing to admit.
I hope you stop feeling sorry for yourself long enough to have a good holiday.
Hey, CLARA! Best to you over the holidays!
Thanks, Jack, right back atcha' buddy!
Look I wasn't trying to be harsh,I was just pointing out that in the story above the guy who they were interviewing was seeming to let his true feelings slid out ala fruedian style..
Merry Christmas to all
Joanne I used to live in Delco for awhile in Upper Darby then in Wallingford but then I terminated my marriage so I went back home,I saw your post about GE and replied about how I grew up and went to school in sight of the aforementioned..Have fun in the traffic on the pikes and Springfield Rd..It is always hell driving there this time of year..
Jack---I think I know which post you were talking about,sometimes I go back and check to see who got riled or who agreed days later....I just try to comment from the heart and you know Philly is famous for boing Santa and bombing Dallas Cowboys with battery laced snowballs,but there is also alot of good here..
Jack--I don't understand why Brian and others will not admit what is the base for their hatred for the president,I mean WTF it is an online discussion you really can say how you feel on here as long as you don't make terroristic threats or something....To me I liked it better before in the years gone by when you knew where people stood and didn't have to wonder...But usually they let little things slip out even though they won't admit to it...
Jack thanks for having my back.....Merry Christmas
sw philly, I'll be in Philadelphia for Christmas try to arrange some good weather for us.
I hope they're not into pigs in SC!!
Old man Bush endorsing Romney is the kiss of death for Romney ...now he is tagged as a flip/flopping war monger who will stay the course . Mitt was trying to sell himself as a man of the people ....with a 12 million dollar place in La Jolla Calif ..as a 4 th home.... People will now either vote for Ron Paul or stay home ...Newt is poison now ..to everyone and is all but out of the race !
I saw a report by Jenna Bush Hager of her mom and dad and sister's trip to Africa on the morning news. Glad they are involved in a worthwhile project in that part of the world, but still not ready to see George W. on our TV screens again.
Rev. Robertson is more the norm. It seems only political junkies are into constant discussion of politics where most folks don't pay much attention or deliberately turn away until a couple of weeks before an election. That seems to be my observation.
And in some cases, turn off the tv because they are sick of the ads!!!!
My gut tells me turnout for the Republican primaries will be low. My sisters supported Hillary in 08, but not enough to bother voting. People like me, on the other hand, who supported Obama were all fired up and there was a line a block long to get into the high school to caucus for him in 08. That energy lead to Obama's win in the general election. I don't see that same feeling on the Republicans part, for any of their candidates.
Amy,
If the weather is bad on caucaus day, I could envision a low turnout with no clear winner.
Amy, I feel it for Dr Paul
East coast turn out may be low especially if the weather is nasty, but the west is revved up and roaring to go.... (the western states are Ron Paul country)
I know Ron Paul supporters are "fired up and ready to go." If Paul won the Republican Primary I'd almost believe the Republican Party was mending itself, because it would mean they are admitting the error of electing George W. Bush (twice.)
What I can't understand is anyone who votes for Paul in the primary, turning around and voting for Romney in the general. If Romney gets elected, we'll be nuking Iran in no time.
Amy B,
Forrest and I have been having this discussion for a few weeks now. We have come to the conclusion that the Dr Paul followers will not vote for an establishment candidate. They will either write him in or not vote at all. I am of the won't vote at all variety.
This is why we both believe that Dr Paul will either win (ala Reagan in '80) or the president will win re-election (ala Clinton, Bush41 & Perot in '92).
These are the only logical outcomes.
Either the republicans get behind Dr Paul or Obama will have another term.
There is the idea that everyone should vote for the Good Dr. to eliminate the possibility of nuking anyone.
Unless something different happens, something different from past election cycles, the GOP has in effect made SC the critical primary. Not Iowa because of its odd format and not New Hampshire because it's New England. Because the GOP is so top heavy in southern, blood red states it may be going down the road of nominating candidates that cannot run nationwide.
That is a distinct possibility Wm.-375815
I think SC isn't going to have the influence they like to claim they have had. Still an important primary, but the nomination is going to come from all over the country, candidates who think they can skip one had better think twice.
Ron Paul has a large, under the radar, ground game in SC. You will see just how large after he wins Iowa in a landslide and NH by a surprising margin. At this point, the revolution opens the doors and steps onto the streets in SC and Fla.
After 4 straight wins, the momentum goes mainstream
I'd rather see Ron Paul win in SC than Blingrich. And I'm no Ron Paul fan (you need some gov. to give some basic protections, I mean c'mon...). Romney, by rights, should win though... (but I'll be votin Obama!!!)
I still believe the GOP is tanking the 2012 presidential run in order to focus on down-ballot races. If the blue collar voters get to voe and have their votes counted, Obama should win. But don`t forget to give attention to the other races on your ballot.