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The hottest argument in Republican circles these days isn’t about immigration, taxes or even health care policy. It’s about New Gingrich and whether nominating him as the party standard-bearer would be disastrous or providential.
The pundits and professional consultants have weighed in on the question in a largely negative manner but many of the Republican candidates seeking election to Congress next fall don’t appear to share the concerns the GOP establishment seems to have about the impact Gingrich would have on downballot races as their presidential nominee.
A dozen of the GOP’s top recruits to run for Congress, part of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s “Young Guns” program for 35 promising candidates, said in interviews with NBCPolitics.com over the last week that they’re not worried about running with the former House speaker at the top at the ticket. Some are downright excited about the prospect.
"I’ve been telling people all along that Newt is the real thing, and he’s substantially different than when he was Speaker of the House," said Dave Garrison, the Republican challenging Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett in Texas.
“I think for my race, my views are more in line with Newt Gingrich, and if the base rallies behind a Newt Gingrich-like candidate, it will benefit me,” said another Republican running for Congress in the southwestern U.S., who asked for anonymity in order to speak candidly about the race. “I think Newt’s a more exciting candidate; he’s going to bring more attention to the conservative cause.”
Some Republicans worry that, at best, Gingrich wouldn’t be as competitive of a candidate against President Barack Obama, and would diminish Republican prospects downballot. At worst, the GOP establishment fears an implosion by Gingrich, whose career has been marked by lapses in discipline, that has catastrophic effects on the Republican brand in 2012.
Conventional wisdom in Washington, reinforced by recent polling, suggests that Gingrich would perform worse as a general election candidate than former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. But the crop of Republican candidates seeking election to Congress doesn’t seem to mind.
Data from the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll reinforces that viewpoint. Gingrich performs worse against Obama than Romney in key demographic groups like women aged 18-49 and independents. Romney also fares better versus Obama in the Northeast and West, according to the data. At the same time, the poll showed that conservative enthusiasm is behind Gingrich, signaling that he could carry GOP enthusiasm with his candidacy.
In the interviews, the Candidates’ opinions toward Gingrich boiled down to the belief that, while he might not be the perfect nominee, he’s more likely to aggressively contest the election and, by that strategy, spark Republican enthusiasm, particularly among conservatives. The candidates brushed off Gingrich’s baggage, both personal and professional.
Most candidates refused to pick explicitly between Gingrich and Romney when assessing which of the two might help their own prospects. Two of the GOP’s most astute political minds – Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole and former Virginia Rep. Tom Davis, each of whom spent time running the NRCC – said the Gingrich-or-Romney effect would vary most strongly across regions of the country.
“What we’ve seen in polling to date is that Gingrich is a weaker candidate at the top of the ticket, especially in the Northeast and Midwest,” Davis explained. “Romney is more acceptable to swing voters in that area.”
But even an admitted Romney admirer like Mike Clark, a Republican candidate in Connecticut, expressed comfort about having Gingrich at the top of the ticket. “He certainly stimulates a lot of discussion. One of my concerns is that a lot of voters are apathetic, and I think he erodes that,” he said. “I would not view a Gingrich campaign as a death knell for the Republican Party in the Northeast.”
The candidates see the presidential contest affecting their own races in several key ways. Chiefly, they say that a good candidate could help drive turnout, especially in swing districts where every vote matters at the margin. They also see the eventual presidential candidate as helping to set the pace and tone of their debates. That might mean that when Gingrich, who’s given to speak extemporaneously, says something controversial on the national stage, it will trickle down to other GOP candidates.
“If he’s the candidate and he takes a position on something with illegal immigration or the economy or whatever, I think it’s a totally appropriate question to ask a candidate,” said California Republican candidate Gary DeLong.
“There isn’t any question about it that my opponent, whoever he or she may be, will try to find whatever the most extreme position whatever presidential candidate might have, and push me right up against it,” said John Koster, a GOP candidate in Washington state. “And they can probably expect Republican candidates will take Democrats and shove them right up against President Obama.”
It’s fear of exactly that scenario that’s driven concerns about Gingrich among Republicans in Washington, some of whom view the prospects of a Gingrich implosion as a matter of when, not if. And at that point, a serious stumble could harm the GOP brand. Their unease about Gingrich is well-documented; a number of them expressed their concerns this week to Roll Call, the Capitol Hill newspaper.
“Romney definitely gives Republicans their best chance downballot,” said a veteran GOP strategist familiar with congressional contests who requested anonymity to provide candid analysis. “Whether the Republican nom wins or loses, the most important thing for congressional candidates is a close race.”
Cole, the Oklahoma congressman who headed House Republicans’ campaign efforts in 2006-08, was more forgiving. “The reality is that presidential campaigns are long and complex,” he said. “While that can really magnify your flaws, it also means that any single flaw is seldom debilitating.”
A few of the Republican candidates contacted by NBCPolitics.com citied the Massachusetts health reform Romney spearheaded as governor as a reason to give them pause about him.
“In my district, what I hear, the epitome of right track/wrong track is ObamaCare,” said Ed Martin, one of two Republican candidates in Missouri’s Second district. “Here’s the problem with Romney: RomneyCare dilutes that argument.”
Most of the candidates said they’re planning their campaigns independently of the eventual nominee. (“Campaigns can really rise and fall in a matter of minutes. I’m not going to irrevocably tie myself to any one candidate,” said Ricky Gill, a GOP candidate in California).
And still others believe that Republicans’ enthusiasm in beating Obama in 2012 is enough to carry the day, regardless of the eventual nominee. (“To the extent that the election is a referendum on the Obama administration, whoever the nominee is, they’re going to do just fine,” said Andy Barr, a repeat Republican candidate in Kentucky.
Even Gingrich supporters acknowledge the candidate’s flaws. Garrisson said the former Speaker’s talk about “amnesty” – referencing his statements in favor of allowing a citizenship process for illegal immigrants who establish roots in the U.S. – doesn’t help him. Garrisson also said Gingrich’s advocacy work on behalf of troubled mortgage giant Freddie Mac, which earned his firm a reported $1.6 million, “cumbersome.”
The former speaker’s personal baggage – three marriages, the current one being the byproduct of an affair – are well-documented, too. None of the candidates mentioned that as a concern, though. And Gingrich has sought to defuse the issue by publicly acknowledging that he’s made mistakes, and saying that he’s sought forgiveness for his actions.
And just as primary voters appear to be looking for someone who might rock the boat, so are Republican candidates.
“I think what we want at the top of the ticket is someone who’s smart and articulate and is willing to challenge the status quo,” said Mark Meadows, a House candidate in North Carolina.
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Who cares what the pundits and the old timers in Congress who either with Newt or rolled over by him when they were in Congress. Like Boehner who orchestrated a failed coup in 1997 against Newt.... He probably is the one who is making the waves because I am sure Newt hasn't forgotten what Boehner did to him.
And as far as the Dems wanting to run Obama against Gingrich...be careful of what you wish for...just like they did with Reagan and their almost as lame president (Carter) as their current "leader".
People are hurting, the country is hurting and the world is hurting and Obama isn't the man to ease the pain... He had no experience before and the on the job training doesn't seem to be working out to well and he looks to be failing his job training program and will be out in 2013.
Note here how family values has fallen to the wayside when that pocketbook gets tight. You have to know folks, all that talk about family values and conservatism and anti abortion is just talk to gather a few votes. In reality, a Republican would sell his mama for 50 cents/
And a have-not Demorcat would sell his mother for food stamps.
And a democrat would sell her for food stamps
Hey, we never talked about family values like you did. Proves you are not true to your beliefs and that will mark you for the future as irrelevant in social conservatism, hypocrits. America is a Christian country? hahahahahahahahahaahahaa
If I was running for Congress, I would rather have Gingrich at the top of the ticket. Gingrich is about ideas, Romney is about platitudes. Americans know that big change is needed, that Obama has not provided it, and that Romney is a manager of the status quo. I believe Gingrich will win the nomination and the general election will be very close.
But will he passs his VD test?
Think about the biggest A$$hole you've ever encountered in life...now picture Newt......If fact, look up A$$hole....it has Newts picture next to it...
Anyone that's been around during Newts years in office will not vote for the guy, Republican or Democratic....and that's a fact...he has more enemies than Osama Bin Laden had.
Tough gotha questions like..what do you read? Unfair...I mean no Republican reads anything other than some evangelical bull about armagedden and how dinosaurs had men like Alley Oop riding with saddles on their backs.
At least they can read and write unlike you.
So wrong, for instance I am a registered Republican and I can at least spell "gotcha" correctly. I read lots of stuff, but nothing on wanting the world to end or the co-existance of men and dinosaurs. Only read enough on Socialism/Liberalism/Progressivism to figure out that then can not work in the real world.
Thanks goodness, l am so tired of the republican establishment saying don't vote for Gingrich vote for Romney.
I think Gingrich can get this country back on track, Romney is just a get along with everyone, kind of guy, which is what he did in Massachusetts. There were no big fundamental changes in MA when he was governor; healthcare was a MA and democratic goal he just happen to be there. He greased the wheels and facilitated like a good CEO.
These bunch of fools say a lot about America...just saying. We really are a stupid, reality loving, fat ass, fast food eatin, lazy, dumbshi@ country. Our political process is turning into a popularity contest and it really doesn't matter what a person has done, just what their answer is to "what would you do to make America great?" Newt in a spedo might get him some votes.
Family values? hahahahhahaaa
My feelings against Newt Gingrich are so strong that I cannot even comment. however, I suggest that posters read "The Audacity of Newt" In the Dec. 19 issue of Newsweek and draw your own conclusions.
this country is never coming back as long as we elect accholes like this to run our country, it will be a cold day in hell before they see they cant do chit about anything as long as you keep screwing companys that want to make it here. thats the problem acchole
Gary, You have already elected an @!$%#! He is presently in the whitehouse!!!
i agree
Sorry folks but I will never agree to wealth shifting and socialism as the democrats want so badly. Any Republican is better than the best democrat (what an oximoron).
Right on PEW (small note: it is spelled oxymoron)
Ginrich might be a good candidate had he not went after Clinton for family values while cheating on his several wives at the same time.
This just proves that the only real value a Republican has is the dollar.
Listen to all the smucks The GOP & Teabaggerss Its all about the Wealthy getting richer and the middle class getting poorer.....They don't want to help out the poor, I do mean the poor not the lazy good for nothings...Who are the one's that leach off the taxpayer.They: are the Wealthy that get welfare both for themselves or for the Corps. So really both party are at fault...But it seems that the Wealthy get away with it like the Corzine.(.Democrat )...They steal billions and the few poor steals a few thousands. So what does the GOP want to do is Screw the MIddle Class to get even with the few. As I say its the me me me and F everyone else.... The failures of the Republicans party trying to take away SS and Medicare so they can give their wealthy Blackmailers more money...To hell with the Poor and Needy. Let them freeze in the winter and stave the Old and Babies,let them die from bad water, do away with the EPA and thats what you'll have, just like all you Teabaggers want...You make me sick with your Me Me Me altitude. It just a matter of time before the masses raise up against you . Greedy and you all call yourself Christains. What a laugh: Your no better than the Muslims you all hate. Wake up America!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!WAKE UP: "
Obama has done alot to help the poor like increasing the number of people that are poor.
right! the party of Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Donald the womanizing, greedy, con man who pulls his namee from any business he endorses if things go a little sour. Madoff could learn a few con tips from Donald.
Most of you show a fundamental misunderstanding of the powers granted to the President in the United States Constitution. The vast majority of power lies in the Legislative Branch. Gingrich, while beautiful in the eyes of Christian zealots, has zero chance of uniting any kind of majority in Congress. Basically, he's Obama: Part 2. There isn't a single candidate, other than Paul or Huntsman, who looks any different than any of the other establishment candidates of either party. They'll all spewing the same old @!$%# we've heard before, and the same old @!$%# that got us into this mess. The Federal government needs to be castrated, and the 10th Amendment needs to be given back its teeth. Until then, you'll always have gridlock and polarization, because it's a systemic virus caused by the Federal Income Tax.
We need to vote for someone who will get elected ousting the OB. I like Ron Paul, but I doubt he'll even carry Iowa
You'll waste your vote:
You're wasting yours nominating a candidate we won't vote for...
Can't you imagine Newt asking folks to pray? Pray he isn't HIV positive...he and Cain
I like coming here. It helps me understand how obama got elected.
tea baggers two baggers its not going to make a difference, the illusion is you think there will be another election but their wont be never make it. the neglect in this country has been a shame to everybody at the cost of these people, they have not done nothing for nobody for to long. shame on you wall street and washington.
How much fun it would be to watch Newt debate obama. With out a teleprompter and a script writer, obama would be as confused as the economy he's created.
I think we're going to see it
obama will be a one legged man in an A55 kicking contest
Obama does very well away from teleprompters. He actually comes across much better. He'll expose Gingrich as the dangerous nut that he is.
Obama speaks extemporaneously as well as anyone does. Newt is trying to support and defend a litaney of misrepresentation, lies, and falsehoods in defense of policies that have failed in grand fashion. He is fighting an uphill battle against the GOP's own failings. I would not expect great results.
Newt also has one of the great failings of smart people--no humility.
Why all the talk about Romney and Gingrich. Lets hear something good about Ron Paul.
Ron Paul has got my vote.
RP, if he could, would leave this country defenseless.
I can't believe that this country would elect Newt as President...so yes let him be the one to run...there is so much for the Democrat's to work with...and his wife...have you seen Newt's wife...does her hair ever move...i think she gets her hair done where Trump does his...
I think dems are just as bad as reps...most of congress is those 1%'r you hate so much...
so whoever is IN office needs to get voted OUT in 2012.....including Alfred E. Newman
CITIZEN: "The People" did vote out a large number of incumbents in 2010 and replaced them with a gang of Tea Party fools who brought our economy to the brink of destruction which caused our credit ratiing to be lowered for the first time in our history. New is not always better. There are some long serving career politicians who have served this nation very well. They used to be referred to as "statesmen", sadly they appear to be a dying breed.
This will be Newt's second term as President. I mean he was acting President and ran the country thru the first 2 years of Clintons first term. No politician has accomplished more than Newt. Remember,the" Contract with America". He got all of it passed except , a balanced budget amendment. Clinton and this country benefited greatly from Newt's mighty accomplishments as Speaker/ acting President. He's got my vote.
Bubba, didnt you read the article? People dont care about that petty bullcrap! Our country is in tuff times and the people want a leader who can get the job done. They know Newt's the man for the job. He gets results! Lie? everything thing I said is true!
Randy -- what are you smoking? First of all -- Newt was in the minority during Clinton's first 2 years. Almost none of the " Contract with America" became law -- in fact Newt himself never claimed it would. He said they would "vote" on it, not pass it. And every time Newt took on Bill Clinton, Clinton kicked his ass.
Bubba you must have been living on another planet during that time, or your just lying because you cant stand "the truth". Yea. "you cant handle the truth".
Obama wins again, because normal people would never vote for the Mexican-loving Zionist who can't even be trusted by his own wives. It's becoming quite apparent Gingrich will get the nomination. Paul will run as an Independent, seeing as he dodged the question in last night's debate. If Gingrich runs, I vote for Paul and Obama wins. If Gingrich runs and Paul doesn't go Independent, I vote for Obama and Obama wins. You may as well pick Paul, Huntsman or Santorum, or that's the scenario your party is looking at. We're the ones who decide the elections. Not you psycho religious nuts, or the welfare-bum-loving twats on the other side of the isle.
keep telling yourself that...its a nice liberal dream
but most of America is tired being stuck in neutral
keep thinking you know all about me...it will make the surprise even better
The Newtered one is universally disliked and distrusted by almost everyone foreign and domestic, naturally he is the logical nominee of choice for the GOP! Why even bother to pretend that you intend to champion the American People, just bring in the biggest egomaniac you can find, read him the rule book prepared by the Military Industrial Establishment, tell him what's in it for him, provide some nominal coaching on believable war hawk rhetoric, give him a dictionary of acceptable economic obfuscation terminology, and turn him loose. the Newtered One will do well he is a quick study!
It's funny, because Republicans have a golden opportunity to grasp onto the Obama-hate and win this election, but they can't help themselves. They have to latch onto a guy Independents hate even more than Obama, when they have options, like Paul, who are loved by the Centrists. Oh, well. We get 4 more years of the same, regardless of which party wins. Remove nonsense issues like abortion from the mix, and it's REALLY hard to tell a Democrat from a Republican. Both are rolling around in beds of money made by their corporate buddies.
Who hates Obama? Not me. Not the other millions who will re-elect him.
First MSNBC headlines a non-story article about Romney LEGALLY closing out his governorship's records as some kind of IMPLIED scandal. Then you take it down and you put up an article that implies the GOP congress is all for Gingrich. You are bending over backward to avoid headlining that TODAY the governor of SOUTH CAROLINA just endorsed Romney. You are so left leaning you're about to tip over. The left would surely love to see Gingrich as the nominee wouldn't you?
ROWAN: There's a wide gulf between legal and ethical. This is illustrated by the recent uproar over Congress using insider information to purchase stocks. Legal, but hardly what you would call ethical.
Intrepid: Not all government conversations are considered public. That is both a legal and an ethical premise that is widely accepted. Many government communications and documents are required both legally and ethically. For example, Solyndra documents and details regarding Guns for Mass-Murdering Drug Dealers are both REQUIRED by law and are not all forthcoming. MSNBC would do the public a real service if it would turn its attention to such critical matters. Count the stories from them on these subjects. THEY LAG ALL OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS.
Intrepid: Forgot to say that I completely agree on the insider trading of Congress. Laws should be changed to hold elected officials accountable to an even higher standard than the private sector. Nancy Pelosi and her husband are prime examples. Gingrich is the other prime example from the Right. They should not be getting wealthy due to inside information, influence peddling, cronyism, etc... Back to the original point: you cannot accuse Romney of ever having done that. There is no scandal there. To IMPLY one is dishonest.
Can anyone tell me what is wrong with Ron Paul?
The list starts with leaving this contry defenseless and goes downhill from there.
The problem is, he's the only one who makes sense. The world's largest nuclear power can never be "defenseless". You are a clueless dolt, who's drank the Kook-Aid. This country WILL fall, because it's crossed a threshold where 47% of the people are losers who refuse to give up a dime of their welfare handouts. They will bankrupt the country. Since you are so concerned with national defense, explain to the class how you intend to upkeep all these high-tech weapon systems when the dollar is worthless?
What is wrong with bringing our troops home from Germany, Japan. I still think that we need troops in South Korea. But bringing our troops hme from Germany and Japan would not leave us defensless.
Look at when Japan bombed Pearl Harbor we did not have a large army but we all went to work and built up or servicemen and women went to work in factories and we won the war in Europe and Japan.
The USA can be a strong country if we need to.