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Newt Gingrich’s surge in the first two primary states continues in South Carolina, according to a new poll released Tuesday by Winthrop University.
Thirty-eight percent of likely Republican primary voters said they would vote for Gingrich, leading Mitt Romney, who received 22 percent. Rick Perry came in third at nine percent. Herman Cain, who had not announced his campaign’s suspension when polling began, had seven percent; Michele Bachmann took five percent. Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman all scored below five percent.
The results represent a marked shift in South Carolina since September, when the last Winthrop poll had Perry and Romney in a virtual tie (30 percent to 27 percent) and Gingrich at just five percent.
Winthrop political science professor Scott Huffmon, who directed the poll, noted that while Gingrich has experienced a quick rise like previous temporary frontrunners, Romney has remained relatively stable in this poll and others.
“The real question is, is Newt Gingrich the not-Mitt Romney candidate or is this support really for Gingrich? And Gingrich needs to pin that down,” Huffmon said.
The former House speaker recently bolstered his presence here, adding seven new staffers in early November for a total of nine (the most of any campaign here) and opening five campaign offices.
Gingrich also completed a three-day trip here at the end of November where he was met with huge crowds and throngs of media, just as the Winthrop poll was being conducted (Nov. 27-Dec. 4).
Huffmon said Gingrich benefits from surging now, as opposed to earlier in the year, because more voters are paying attention to the primary field.
“He’s got a wider audience to try to and loop in more solid supporters than some of the previous not-Mitt-Romney candidates,” Huffmon said.
The Winthrop poll also suggested that in South Carolina, the concept of “membership” in the Tea Party has diminished since September. While 28 percent of Republican voters said they considered themselves members of the Tea Party then, that number was cut in half to 15 percent in this poll.
The poll, conducted Nov. 27 - Dec. 4, has a 5.45 percent margin of error for the Republican primary voter sample.
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There is no way the Republicans are stupid enough to give Newt Gingrich the nomination.
Yes, we mock the wingnuts for knowing absolutely nothing. No, they don't know the meanings of the words they use. Yes, it's been shown those who intake no information whatsoever are better informed than wingnut Fox viewers.
Even so, they just aren't that stupid.
Guess again!
nisl,
Yeah, I would have to agree with Tommy. They are stupid enough to nominate Newt. The reason is, they are desperate--who else are they going to nominate? Mittens?
The other possibility is that this will go all the way down to the Republican Convention, and someone totally unanticipated will be nominated.
I'm not so sure...
After all, it appears they want ABR = Anyone but Romney!
In the end, they don't have ONE candidate who has any shred of a core or convictions!
Hello - 'Hollow Mitty'!
Don't get me wrong, I'd have a week long joygasm if they chose Newt, but I don't see it happening. It'll be Romney, he is the establishment candidate and you know the old saying, "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line."
If you would have asked me six months ago who, if it were up to me, the Republicans would pick for their nominee Newt Gingrich would have been close to the top of the list. He would have trailed only Jeffery Dahmer and genital warts.
nisl,
thanks for the visual!
I really wish they would stop with the "surging Newt" headlines. Puts nasty images in my head.
FYI, just heard from Mom. Uncle Bob was released back to the center today. To be safe, they channel blocked Fox from his tv in his apartment. They also didn't tell him about the Bengals loss on Sunday and the Trump debate!
They send their love and best wishes to everyone here at FR. And a special hello to you Feisty!
I am with you... the thought of Newt surging makes me throw up a little in my mouth! ;o)
EXCELLENT news! How is Aunt Louise faring?
Thank you! Give the gang a {{{hug}}} from me will ya?
Tommy-499410
Guess again!
Tommy, What happened to the Dodo bird when he tried to fly? He couldn't and he became extinct.
http://h2g2.com/dna/h2g2/A138269
sailors and colonists were amused by the friendly, easy-to-catch birds and slaughtered them for
President obma will pluck those feathers
sailors and colonists were amused by the friendly, easy-to-catch birds and slaughtered them for food.
So to be clear then nisl - there is absolutely no way Obama could ever lose to Newt, is that correct?
So let's assume for the moment that Newt gets the nomination. Give us a prediction on the size of Obama's victory.
We talking 49 states? 50?
And say, why did Pelosi back down off her comment about sharing some of those documents she reviewed in the ethics committee?
Funny thing that - Newt got hit with an ethnics violation, but was cleared by the IRS.
Why was that nisl? Perhaps that was joygasm worthy?
Sorry about the typo; but it's true.
President Obama will pluck Newt's feathers. Newt is just too dumb, too fat, and too corrupt to run away from our President.
LMAO@the Dodo, Newt Gingrich
Aunt Louise is still in a splint. As she put it, "The old tendons to bounce back the way they used too! But I still got my winnings!" She is already set up in Uncle Bob's place with a comfy chair and foot stool. She also has her deck of cards ready to take on Uncle Bob in gin rummy.
As a side note here, those sweethearts just sent me and the hubby an Omaha steak package. Going to have think up something good for them this year.
And Feisty, the surging is payback for the "Pam". That one still gives me the shudders! :)
Spanky - You got me. I guess Republicans really are that stupid.
And we are talking, in all likelihood, all 50 states. If you want to know why I say that you should look into Newt's history.
Unless Newt wins, then not so much.
Ron Paul will win Iowa
Mitt will win NH
SC is up fro grabs at this point but someone else, certainly Newton COULD win... Ultimately, it will be Mitt, but it's gonna be an interesting roller-coaster ride between now and the springtime...
You are right, it will be Mitt.
In the end the "History Professor" will be undone by his own personal history.
Karma at its finest.
dangerfield, I am really curious how my home state, Florida, is going to go. With a large Latino community, retirees and wealthy, not to mention our large tea party group, should make for interesting campaigning here. It is a closed primary, and is on the schedule for the end of January.
Our lovely state of Florida will probably vote T party. I don't know how it is around you, but here in north central florida, It's all about regressive not progressive
fuzzy, I am in NE Florida on the coast. Pretty big tea party group here. I can see them going for Newt around here. Think south Florida will go for Mittens?
Phine - If you look at the things Newt has pushed for the Tea Party should loathe Newt Gingrich.
Why do you think the Tbaggers will support Newt? Is it ignorance of who Newt is or do they just like that Newt says nasty things about Obama?
We are a state controlled by Tea leaf readers. OMG PLEASE HELP US
I hope nisl is correct
nisl, around this part of my state - it the nasty things the Grinch says that will appeal to them. If not Newt, then, God forgive them, they would go to Perry.
God must not be to happy with us now, he gave us Rick Scott.
I'm not so sure it will be Mitt.
A few weeks ago maybe, but not anymore.
The sad reality is we are all jaded on the flawed personality thing.
Plus many are desperate for solutions, not more of the same.
To me there is no difference between Mitt and Obama. They are two sides of the same coin.
Newt might or might not be, but in any case he is far more entertaining.
Phine - In many ways Perry would be the better choice for Republicans if Republicans wanted to win the White House.
I'm vary familiar with Perry and have been shocked by his performance. I thought he would be undone by scandals, but he cratered before the scandals could come to light. Yes, I knew Perry was a bit of a dunce, but I thought that would be part of his appeal.
nisl, yeah, Perry has that old "have a beer with him" type of persona. And that works well with our rednecks around here.
Spanky-
That's the dilemma isn't it? I am probably one of the few here who read NRO, Ramesh Ponnuru, etc. and his endorsement of Mitt, but the many comments on his piece echo your lament;
Considering the current state of the conservative movement, Mitt lacks the ideological bona fides and is considered a RINO by many conservatives.
Newton is the the alternative , anti-Romney du jour, but by DEFAULT, as Bachmann, Perry, and now Herman Cain have, for various reasons enjoyed their brief moments in the sun, and those who support him now were supporting one of the others mere weeks ago.
Mitt is the obvious best, most electable choice for the republicans at this point in time, but his lack of ideological purity and the radicalization of the republican party renders him almost identical to the President to many party faithful.
In 1968 the Democrats, rocked by events inside and outside the party itself faced a choice between ideological purity (Gene McCarthy) and electability (Hubert Humphrey) they squabbled, split the party even further and finally settled on HHH, but without a lot of enthusiasm....I see reflections of the Democrat's 1968 in this Republican nominating process...
Perhaps, but huge difference -
The world economy is toast. Europe will fail, either this week, next year, or shortly thereafter. China is about to hit a recession and we just keep piling up the debt.
We will get any one of the three this time around. But next time we will get a Ron Paul type person.
Economic reality always wins. And we are losing. Badly.
Spanky,
That kind of depressing talk is exactly why the Republicans are positioning themselves to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in next year's election. You have to hope that things keep getting worse to win...You may be right, but you may be wrong, and personally, I think you're wrong. We will avoid world financial collapse.
If the unemployment # declines by as little as 1 tenth of a point per month from here on in the President will probably win a second term, regardless of the opponent, as like Ronald Reagan before him, he can point to an improving economy. I liked Herman Cain because he had a POSITIVE message, and I bet that's what made his candidacy so appealing to so many conservatives.
It is not good to be the party that is betting on bad news if the news starts to improve, right? Lighten up buddy, it's MORNING in America!...lol
Your lack of enthusiasm for Humphrey will enable Nixon to be (re)elected
The numbers are going down on the Tea-Baggers because they are seen as the New White Citizens Council!
Tommy-499410
The numbers are going down on the Tea-Baggers because they are seen as the New White Citizens Council!
Tommy, I can prove you're wrong at the blink of your eye.
Released: November 29, 2011
More Now Disagree with Tea Party – Even in Tea Party Districts
Since the 2010 midterm elections, the Tea Party has not only lost support nationwide, but also in the congressional districts represented by members of the House Tea Party Caucus. And this year, the image of the Republican Party has declined even more sharply in these GOP-controlled districts than across the country at large
http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/29/more-now-disagree-with-tea-party-%E2%80%93-even-in-tea-party-districts/?src=prc-headline
==========================================
Of course, you're entitled to your own RWNJ myopic VIEW!
So the Tea Baggers are seen as the new Ku Klux Klan!! Okay that is even better!!
Newt! The new Republican presidential front runner. How lucky can liberals get? They won't even have to pull the old switcheroo in the spring to vote in the Republican primary so this guy will win. Republicans seem gullible enough without help from Democrats. What an interesting general this will be with Newt. Late night comedy is salivating at the thought!
True Ana. Newt does provide more comedy to late night. Mittens is like warm milk, he puts one to sleep.
Mittney needs to get some hanky-panky going, drop his pants and come out swinging. Willie WONKA.
Mittens' voice goes right through me. It's a high-pitched whine that jangles my nerves. I don't think it will "travel well" over the many months of his campaign.
Noooooooo, no visions of Mittens dropping his pants!!!
I still cringe every time I hear Bible Spice squawking!
Her & her high-pitched 'folksy' garble, like nails on a chalkboard!
Gripping his putter!
Paybacks a bitch phinephancy! lol ;op
Bible Spice LMFAO that's a new one for me!! Keep em coming Feisty :)
@Feisty
Thanks a lot! Just had to wipe my iced tea off the monitor! LMAO :)
Will Mark Sanford of Appalachian Trail infamy, campaign with the Newt!
More family values on display!
As I've posted before Mitt is a Mormon. In the south that is akin to belonging to the Halle Bopp Comet cult. It's not going to happen for Mitt in the south.
To surge or not to surge. I believe that is Mitt's dilemma. He could always try "I surged before I surged."
My money is on Newt Gingrich winning the Republican nomination. Mitt is not smart enough! If Newt wins everyone in my party (Blogging on this site) should donate $5 to President Obama! If I lose I will donate $100 to Ms. Warren to beat Brown!!
I believe that if the Republicans nominate Mr. Ginrich, Independents will have little choice but to swallow their discontent with President Obama and vote for him for another term. And if Independent voters decide the election, the Republicans will lose.
President Obama is vulnerable ; the question is will the Republicans blow this really good chance to reclaim the White House? Seems to me they would realize that if they kept control of the House, and captured the White House, they would be able to push their agenda with little opposition.
Why Gingrich will never be president
http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/opinionperspectives/940780-263/why-gingrich-will-never-be-president.html
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/11/why-newt-gingrich-will-never-be-president/248456/
Independ in Illi, I agree the Demo is most vulnerable due to the economy and with the right person and message the GOP can re-take the White House in 2012. BUT the TP and conservatives don't have the common sense to select the most qualified candidate from the group of available candidates. If they go with Newt they will lose, for sure! At least with Hunstman or one of the 2 Mitts,, they have a chance.
"Nutty Newt" is a "Bonehead Birther," and has no economic policy that helps 99% of economically struggling Americans. He has been a huge supporter of the theory of economic class warfare. "Nutty Newt" has made recent comments describing American Citizens living in poverty as lazy, and they need to take a bath. His demented views towards the poorest children of America is just "Sadistic!" The Tea Beggers are so far to the right that they do not see that GOP Lobbyists do not economically care about them at all. Is America getting sick of the GOP Clowns yet?? I hope so!
Isn't the GOP's basest of the base only about 20%? You can't win an election if you only get 20% of the vote. Here's who will not vote GOP: most of the white people, all of the Af/Amers, all of the hispanics, all of the most recent immigrants, women, the former middle class---basically the whole 99%. I know that none of you commenting here are even close to being filthy rich. Most of you don't even know what really, really rich is. One clue---it's not teachers who make $60,000 a year. Eye of Newt is filthy rich. Limbaugh is filthy rich---hey ditto heads---if he met you, he's not likely to give you one of his $400 cigars. The filthy gas up the yacht with what you make all year. I say tax the hell out of the filthy and do it at 90% like it was in the 1950's. The national debt is not, and never was, the fault of the poor or the old, or immigrants, or blacks (only 13% of the population is black). If we gave every disadvantaged person a guaranteed income which they would have to turn around and spend, thus strengthening the economy, and----OMG! creating jobs. That idea would add a microscopic amount to the debt, and, before long--when things got better--the folks who got help would be able to pay taxes----which would increase revenue and---OMG---the deficit would start to drop.
Newt is the original southern flim-flam man, who loves to play to a crowd and would sell his soul to the devil for the right price. The only principle consistent with The Newt is the principal Newt himself.
But...having said that...he may play well in the South, where the voter's are used to such politicians and, to a large degree, expect it.
I have an Aunt who lived for a number of years in a southern state, which shall remain nameless. There was a Governor's election and the sitting Governor was under fire by his challenger for stealing from the public coffers. Each day things began to look worse and worse for the incumbent...leaks from the investigations, unidentified "witnesses," etc., etc. The incumbent gained ground in the polls.
Then, with just days to go before the election, the Governor went on TV. He said, basically, that while he had to admit that some of the accusations against him might have some grain of truth, IF...and he was not admitting he had...but IF he had stolen from the public coffers, it was because he had stolen for the people...to take money that would have otherwise gone to corrupt bureaucrats and politicians at the state capital, and to put it into the hands of the people themselves.
And, he went on, that after long and distinguished service in protecting the people from corrupt bureaucrats and politicians by "stealing" for them, perhaps, it was time for the people to reelect him in order for him to secure his own retirement - i.e. steal a little for himself.
And, of course, he was overwhelmingly re-elected.
I never checked on the validity of her story and she left the South shortly thereafter...later, I concluded the story was based on Huey Long and Robert Penn Warren's "All the King's Men."
Be that as it may, I am convinced that to really understand southern politics, one has to understand another time honored southern tradition called "Toting Privileges." Maybe South Carolinians think Newt, more than any of the others, simply deserves his "time" and whatever his foibles is better than our current President or a Yankee.
P.S. There are basically three kinds of people in the Deep South, and contrary to outsider's beliefs, the types are not necessarily based on race or wealth: "Aristocrats," who black or white, must trace their southern ancestry to at least "before the War." "Trash," generally any southerner who is native born, but doesn't fit into the first category. This especially includes politicians that can't claim to be in category #1. And, Yankees, who are, broadly, anyone else, from anywhere else. Curiously, "southern liberals" in category #1 are "tolerated," whereas all other liberals are generally to be found in category #3...regardless of place of birth.