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Subscribe to RSSWith about four weeks until the first Republican presidential nominating contest, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has surged to the lead in Iowa and has climbed nearly 20 percentage points in New Hampshire since October, according to new NBC News-Marist polls.
Meanwhile, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has seen his support drop in both states.
In Iowa, which holds its caucuses on Jan. 3, Gingrich gets the support of 26 percent of likely caucus-goers (including those leaning towards a candidate) -- a 21-point jump since October.
Read the NBC News-Marist poll Iowa Annotated Questionnaire
He’s followed by Romney at 18 percent (an eight-point decline), Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 17 percent (a five-point increase), Herman Cain at 9 percent (an 11-point drop) and Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 9 percent (a two-point dip). No other Republican presidential candidate gets more than 5 percent support among likely caucus-goers.
With Cain’s decision to suspend his campaign -- which he announced on Saturday -- a reallocation of his supporters’ second-choice picks puts Gingrich ahead of the Iowa horse race with 28 percent; Paul and Romney are tied at 19 percent; and Perry lands at 10 percent. (The NBC-Marist polls were conducted before Cain suspended his campaign.)
Among all Republican respondents in Iowa, the breakdown is Gingrich with 25 percent, Romney at 18 percent and Paul at 16 percent.
Romney still leads in New Hampshire
In New Hampshire, which holds its primary on Jan. 10, Romney continues to lead, getting the support of 39 percent of likely GOP primary voters. But that’s a six-point decline since October.
Romney is followed in the Granite State by Gingrich at 23 percent (a 19-point gain), Paul at 16 percent (a three-point increase), and former Utah Gov. Huntsman at 9 percent (a four-point jump). No other Republican candidate gets more than 3 percent support.
Read the NBC News-Marist poll New Hampshire Annotated Questionnaire
The decision by Cain -- who is at 2 percent support in New Hampshire -- to suspend his campaign doesn’t change the race there all that much: Romney stays at 39 percent, while Gingrich moves one point to 24 percent.
Among all New Hampshire Republicans, the breakdown is Romney with 40 percent, Gingrich with 21 percent, Paul with 16 percent, and Huntsman at 10 percent.
What’s hurting Romney
What appears to be hurting Romney: perceptions of his ideology and his record as Massachusetts governor.
A combined 71 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, as well as a combined 71 percent of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, view Romney as either “moderate” or “liberal.”
Among Iowa Republicans identifying with the Tea Party -- who make up about half of all likely caucus-goers -- Gingrich leads Romney, 32 percent to 11 percent. And among Tea Party Republicans in New Hampshire, Gingrich and Romney are tied at 33 percent each.
What’s more, 63 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers and 60 percent of likely New Hampshire primary voters say it’s unacceptable if a presidential candidate supports an individual health-care mandate (as Romney helped enact in Massachusetts).
By comparison, 47 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers and 41 percent of likely New Hampshire primary voters say it’s unacceptable if a candidate favors some sort of limited legalization -- or “amnesty” -- for illegal immigrants living in the United States (as Gingrich has suggested he supports).
Measuring Obama
Turning to the general election in Iowa and New Hampshire, President Barack Obama’s approval rating remains underwater in both states.
Forty-three percent of registered voters in Iowa approve of his job performance, which is up one point from October. In New Hampshire, 40 percent of registered voters approve of his job performance, up two points.
Yet -- with one exception -- he leads all GOP challengers in hypothetical match-ups in the Hawkeye State. He’s ahead of Romney by seven points among registered voters (46 percent to 39 percent), Gingrich by 10 points (47 percent to 37 percent) and Perry by 11 points (48 percent to 37 percent).
The one exception: Paul ties him at 42 percent for each.
In New Hampshire, Romney leads Obama by three points (46 percent to 43 percent), although that’s down from Romney’s nine-point advantage in October.
But Obama leads all other Republicans in the state -- Paul (by two points), Gingrich (by 10) and Perry (by 15).
The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted Nov. 27-29 of 2,896 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) 916 Republicans (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 425 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points.
The New Hampshire poll was conducted Nov. 28-30 of 2,263 registered voters (plus-minus 2.1 percentage points), 967 total Republicans (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 696 likely GOP primary voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points).
Mark Murray covers politics for NBC News.
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Newt has been unfaithful in his marriages and lied to his wives & congress. Are we really expecting him to be faithful to us?
~~~~~~~~~~~"The only thing New't is faithful to is Money" ~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJOjTNuuEVw
"New't thinks the key to success is to go to bed with Trump and the Tea-Retards"
how is it possible for newt to be ahead in Iowa with Bachmann campaigning there exclusively for the last 6 months.....? lol...that was the only state she had a chance at....maybe she and Herman should discuss it over a cup of joe!
Evangelicals will not vote for a Mormon. They believe it is a fake faith and won't vote for someone who practices that faith. There is nothing Willard can do to change that, er, well there is, but that is the one thing he seems unwilling to change for electoral gain. It will do him in.
Newt is the only viable candidate out of the leftovers in the eyes of con voters. We are witnesses to a major American political party imploding right before our eyes.
The Newt surge is also more proof the teapublican conservatives hate President Obama more than they love this country.
xactly!
Most TEA party loudmouths have no idea that they are dupes to a well funded, thought out strategy to promote the "Make Me Richer" agenda of the Koch bros. Just as the right wing "movement" of the 50's (John Birch Society and the UnAmerican Activities Committee insanity) was funded by Texas oil money, this movement would be nowhere without the Koch parade of brainwashing professionals running around the country in million dollar busses attending "grassroot" meetings. As they scream, "Freedom" what they are really promoting is the freedom of the Koch bros to steal more money. They are the most pathetic form of delusional zealots to come along in several decades.
Gingrich is a pathological liar. And to boot, anyone that doesn't agree with him or calls him out on his lies is called every bad name in the book. Watch him closely in past and future interviews and debates. He doesn't wiggle his way out of past statements, rather he comfortably lies his way around them and talks badly about his opponent with no limits on what he'll say. I've never seen a more convincing liar. People claim he's the smartest guy around. His level of intelligence might be high, but he uses it to con his way through life. I would bet my life that his wife doesn't trust one ounce of him. Con men are usually very smart individuals that tell stories that go round and round and never have a true ending to them. An HONEST day's work he's probably not done in 30+yrs.
Who said? Newton Gingrich is what a stupid person thinks a smart person sounds like.
Does it really matter to people outside of their club. Their are just choosing the smartest man in the club.
Anyway we need third party, there should be third party, for example independents party where it would be only the base for political people without the program so every member would be free to expose own ideas.
For all of their pious mouthings, looks like those "Christian conservatives" in Iowa approve of adultery and lying. They must, if they approve of The Grinch.
In addition, I laugh out loud when I hear The Grinch opine that Romney's "flipflops" will sink him. The Grinch has flipflopped so often over the years that his flips don't know where his flops will lie next. Adulterous Newt in the WH will make Clinton look like an altar boy.
Ben,
That was hilarious! Of course some people are too stupid to understand it's sarcastic humor. I love the people preaching about the quote is impossible because Einstein died before Obama was born. It's a joke people
Stretching the truth is the accepted norm in political campaigns, but bald faced lies might be considered out of bounds by most Americans.
The St. Petersburg (FL) Times has a column called PolitiFact.com where they 'correct' statements made by politicians of all stripes. Recently, Newt told an audience in Council Bluffs, Iowa that people are using the new 'food stamp' debit card to fly to Hawaii and that millionaires are using the debit card.
The debit card is coded by the US Department of Agriculture so that only USDA approved purchases are registered when someone checks out of the store as items are scanned. The old food stamps were used as currency on the street for drugs, alcohol and cash. The cards are useless anywhere but a store that accepts the USDA provisions. They can not be used to fly to Hawaii, or anywhere else.
As for the millionaire claim, the Associated Press recently ran a story about an unemployed Michigan gentleman who has been qualified to receive food assistance. The lucky guy recently won the Michigan lottery. Maybe this is the guy Newt was referring to, but if so Newt didn't read the who story that pointed out that the guy's USDA debit card was voided after he collected his lottery winnings.
The St. Petersburg PolitFact.com story gave Newt its "Pants on Fire" rating. Stretching the truth is something we all do from time to time, but Newt has a tendency to outright lie if it suits his purpose.
Just remember folks this is the same guy that went to his wife while she was in the hospital with cancer and ask for a divorce.Does he have a moral compass I seriously doubt it.I realize most of our elected officials leave a lot to be desired but this guy is just bad news.
Tyme to bury this salamander back from whence he came. Trust me,
he is dangerous:
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Sharpen and
Draw thy swords:
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A newt is a misdivsion in nature. What NEWT is is an adding machine. He adds wives. He adds your money to his bank account in the millions. And now he wants to add you to his list of suckers with more of the same crap he and his buddies have foisted on you again and again. Good luck sucking down NEWT slime if that is what you feel you want.
Republicans are nuts You have Ron Paul to vote for and Who cares if Mitt is mormon he at least looks presidential but he is a total flip flopper. The rest seriously anyone who even considers voting for bachman perry or cain should be expelled from the country for having no common sense at all they are idiots perry reminds me of jimmy swaggart am i wrong they act the exact same way.
Any one of them will get my vote over the failed socialist Obama....At least they all think that our country is not the worst in the world....They will not have to apologize to the world...except for maybe the last three yrs....
If Gingrich should actually win the nomination, there's going to be some real payback time against the party that relished their attacks on Bill Clinton. This guy is as bad as Tricky Dick Nixon.