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Subscribe to RSSWith about four weeks until the first Republican presidential nominating contest, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has surged to the lead in Iowa and has climbed nearly 20 percentage points in New Hampshire since October, according to new NBC News-Marist polls.
Meanwhile, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has seen his support drop in both states.
In Iowa, which holds its caucuses on Jan. 3, Gingrich gets the support of 26 percent of likely caucus-goers (including those leaning towards a candidate) -- a 21-point jump since October.
Read the NBC News-Marist poll Iowa Annotated Questionnaire
He’s followed by Romney at 18 percent (an eight-point decline), Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 17 percent (a five-point increase), Herman Cain at 9 percent (an 11-point drop) and Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 9 percent (a two-point dip). No other Republican presidential candidate gets more than 5 percent support among likely caucus-goers.
With Cain’s decision to suspend his campaign -- which he announced on Saturday -- a reallocation of his supporters’ second-choice picks puts Gingrich ahead of the Iowa horse race with 28 percent; Paul and Romney are tied at 19 percent; and Perry lands at 10 percent. (The NBC-Marist polls were conducted before Cain suspended his campaign.)
Among all Republican respondents in Iowa, the breakdown is Gingrich with 25 percent, Romney at 18 percent and Paul at 16 percent.
Romney still leads in New Hampshire
In New Hampshire, which holds its primary on Jan. 10, Romney continues to lead, getting the support of 39 percent of likely GOP primary voters. But that’s a six-point decline since October.
Romney is followed in the Granite State by Gingrich at 23 percent (a 19-point gain), Paul at 16 percent (a three-point increase), and former Utah Gov. Huntsman at 9 percent (a four-point jump). No other Republican candidate gets more than 3 percent support.
Read the NBC News-Marist poll New Hampshire Annotated Questionnaire
The decision by Cain -- who is at 2 percent support in New Hampshire -- to suspend his campaign doesn’t change the race there all that much: Romney stays at 39 percent, while Gingrich moves one point to 24 percent.
Among all New Hampshire Republicans, the breakdown is Romney with 40 percent, Gingrich with 21 percent, Paul with 16 percent, and Huntsman at 10 percent.
What’s hurting Romney
What appears to be hurting Romney: perceptions of his ideology and his record as Massachusetts governor.
A combined 71 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, as well as a combined 71 percent of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, view Romney as either “moderate” or “liberal.”
Among Iowa Republicans identifying with the Tea Party -- who make up about half of all likely caucus-goers -- Gingrich leads Romney, 32 percent to 11 percent. And among Tea Party Republicans in New Hampshire, Gingrich and Romney are tied at 33 percent each.
What’s more, 63 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers and 60 percent of likely New Hampshire primary voters say it’s unacceptable if a presidential candidate supports an individual health-care mandate (as Romney helped enact in Massachusetts).
By comparison, 47 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers and 41 percent of likely New Hampshire primary voters say it’s unacceptable if a candidate favors some sort of limited legalization -- or “amnesty” -- for illegal immigrants living in the United States (as Gingrich has suggested he supports).
Measuring Obama
Turning to the general election in Iowa and New Hampshire, President Barack Obama’s approval rating remains underwater in both states.
Forty-three percent of registered voters in Iowa approve of his job performance, which is up one point from October. In New Hampshire, 40 percent of registered voters approve of his job performance, up two points.
Yet -- with one exception -- he leads all GOP challengers in hypothetical match-ups in the Hawkeye State. He’s ahead of Romney by seven points among registered voters (46 percent to 39 percent), Gingrich by 10 points (47 percent to 37 percent) and Perry by 11 points (48 percent to 37 percent).
The one exception: Paul ties him at 42 percent for each.
In New Hampshire, Romney leads Obama by three points (46 percent to 43 percent), although that’s down from Romney’s nine-point advantage in October.
But Obama leads all other Republicans in the state -- Paul (by two points), Gingrich (by 10) and Perry (by 15).
The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted Nov. 27-29 of 2,896 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) 916 Republicans (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 425 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points.
The New Hampshire poll was conducted Nov. 28-30 of 2,263 registered voters (plus-minus 2.1 percentage points), 967 total Republicans (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 696 likely GOP primary voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points).
Mark Murray covers politics for NBC News.
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What this Country needs is a President with character. And when newt gingchachingrich called for the arrest of those involved with freddie mac while he was working for freddie and getting paid millions, he proved he has none.
Add this to his cheating ways and who can deny he'll make a fine candidate for Prez? Certainly not me. I am a repub and will vote for the candidate with character even if he/she is not in race yet.
If anyone votes vor newt they are as dumb as the ones who voted for the Odummer.
We, as citizens, need to make sure that our politicians work together fix the problems in the US. We may be opposed on many issues, but there is so much that we agree on that can be passed right away. Both parties continue to ask for too much and then blame the other side for the gridlock. Health care is a perfect example. We ended up with a very poor bill (probably unconstitutional) that is going to make things worse because only one side supported it. They should have passed the reforms that everyone could agree with and then started the difficult stuff.
Gingrich is only ahead because he is being compared to the other current GOP candidates. He is simply the anti-Romney.
The GOP field is in SHAMBLES !
I don't hear ANYBODY clamoring for Gingrich's election.
The GOP is simply the party of "No" !
The GOP is all about corporate welfare and class warfare.
The GOP couldn't care less about the economic problems that are killing the middle and lower classes,...in fact that is exactly what they want - cheap labor and a desperate working force.
Profits are up, but wages have been stagnant for years and years.
Executive pay and bonuses skyrocket along with the incessant price increases that the corporations impose upon the public to make their ever growing wealth.
The 1% is booming,...while the working class is struggling.
This is what the GOP stands for. If you were awake during the Bush administration you remember how they wielded power and circumvented the will of the public.
Gingrich has zero interest in working in the interest of the people and the greater good. He is a die hard GOP veteran, and they will tell you - outright,...they want government out of the way, so that the supposed "free" market can operate unhindered.
We all know at this point that our economic and tax systems are now set up to favor the wealthy,...the middle and lower classes don't have a leg to stand on - the "guiding hand" of government is needed to keep the corporations and upper class from imposing the right's new brand of financial tyranny on the hard working people of America.
It's corporate and labor practices like what we are seeing now that spurred the creation of labor unions. If you like "the weekend" thank labor unions. Corporations aren't concerned about the lives of individuals,...their motivations come simply from a balance sheet. We need the government to control greed and the financial tyranny that has replaced what used to be the American Way of life.
We've been changed from fellow American citizens into something like the "team members" of a country wide big box store.
Did you ever notice that in this corporatization of America how important it has become to have a small to non-existent government. It's just the same way that the outlaws dislike having a sheriff in town,....it stops them from threatening and dominating the townspeople.
The GOP (and GINGRICH) want corporations to become the DE FACTO rulers of the U.S.. Prepare to work longer and harder for everything you need. With the government out of the way,....corporations will be free to resume destroying and slowly enslaving the middle class with debt.
If this is the kind of America you like and want,...vote Gingrich.
The "freedom" that the GOP are most interested in is the freedom to make themselves VERY rich at your expense.
Otherwise, VOTE OBAMA in 2012.
At this Christmas time remember,...a vote for Newt Gingrich is a vote for Mr Potter (he even looks like him).
Happy Holidays !
How can you be so blind and partisan? The democrats are just as bad. Look at their Banking reform law that actually helped the major banks like BofA and Wells Fargo. The republicans were the only ones sticking up for the little guys. The democrats are the ones that would like to put George Bailey out of business in favor of Potter through regulations. Actually look up how the Wall St. reform bill is killing the small banks like "Baileys".
Oh, so you think regulating the banks are good for Potter and bad for Bailey? Just what kind of meds are you on?
Anybody who thinks Gingrich should be the next president should seek professional help. This person is just as bad as Cain ... difference is he is white ... Don't matter in my book! Perry is a clown (rope 'em cowboy) .... reminds me of Obama. Romney? Mr. straight? Sure, he would be swallowed up like the rest mentioned above. We all need a new president! Someone, who is speaks with authority, forcefully ... and doesn't have ghosts in the closet ...
The only way this could get any better is if Palin decided to get back in the race!
As a firm supporter of President Obama, I have been concerned that too many people were viewing this like a sports game, and not the future of our country. (Go Newt! -- Bachmann, Bachmann, she's our man!) But the insanity that is destroying the Republican Party is just the formula we need. I hope Newt wins a whole bunch of these meaningless Republican "Animal House" votes.
Things are so screwed up in the Republican Party that I simply can't believe that they're going to go all the way past their convention this way. Surely there are enough Republicans with more than a "Tea" spoon of brains who will stop it.
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Former Republican Senator John Danforth: "I’ve been watching some of these Republican debates and they’re just terrible. Terrible. ... it’s embarrassing for me as a Republican to watch this stuff."
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I think they'll come to their senses at some point.
http://porterrockwell.newsvine.com/_news/2011/11/15/8820495-inevitable-romney
Newt I've got to admit I thought you were just the flavor of the month.Now I'm curious I want to know just how far a morally bankrupt BS peddling carnival barker can go.I'm sure it will tell us a lot about how gullible the American voter is.
Please substitute the word surge with re-flux when referring to Newt.
The thing that most people don't understand is that the nominee is not chosen by the primaries alone. The parties have their "super delegates." These are the power elite of the party. Anyone who is a member of the RNC, or an elected official, and a number of unpledged delegates from every state (political power brokers) are also at the convention. They can select whomever they want. The primaries are important, but the power elite of the party have the final say. This is why Ron Paul is out. The Republican leadership would never permit him to be the nominee.
I hope the T-party Republicans don't shoot themselves in the foot again....Sarah Palin, Sarah Palin...ring a bell? She sunk McCain and Newt will do it again if he becomes the Republican nominee. I urge Republicans to be realistic...get behind the only viable candidate that can beat Obama in a general election...Mitt Romney! There are more voters out there than just Republicans; Democrats (like me) and Independents that are sick of Obama but, voted for him last time. If the T-party continues to hold you hostage with who your candidates should be get ready for 4 more years of Obama. I will vote for Mitt but, NEVER Newt, Bachman, or Santorum. I want Obama out but, I don't want a get richer Newt in. Lots of baggage, his own party said he had to go...or are your memories that short.
Sarah Palin didn't sink McCain. He was DOA even before she showed up. He got an initial bump to pull even once he selected her, but that was temporary. I think Huntsman can also win. I am also pretty skeptical about Newt.
You people who call the Republicans obstructionists have a very short memory. Congress accomplished nothing when the Democrats had the majority in both houses! That is, nothing except bursting the real estate bubble and putting us in a recession!
Nice try Carol, but you conveniently leave out the part that they did not have a filibuster proof majority.
Right you are, Rick. One of the most clear differences between Democrats and Republicans in Congress these days is the remarkable herd mentality of Republicans. They have voted as a solid block whenever it counted. Democrats, on the other hand, feel free to vote their conscience, their state interest, in return for some other political favor or whatever. So, although the Republicans never had the votes to pass anything of their own, they almost always had the votes to stop anything President Obama wanted.
What is the source of this very significant difference? I have my theories. What's yours?
The TEA Party voters must not know that when Newt was speaker of the House he spent $30 million tax payer dollars and wasted a year of congress's time at a failed attempt to impeach Clinton for the Lewinsky scandal, all while cheating on his wife...
Just one reason why watching too much Dumb FUX NEWS makes one a...well you know what it makes a person.
TEA = The End of America
You should do a little research. The republicans didn't go after Clinton because of Lewinsky. They went after him because he lied in a deposition to a grand jury when he was facing a sexual harassment lawsuit. Clinton thought he was above the law.
Still failure, still wasteful, still expensive...but you make an interesting case as to why we haven't prosecuted Bush/Cheney Inc. for lies about Iraq's WMD's which led to the biggest military blunder in the history of the USA...
Hey PutAmerika,
Apparently, so did the American people.
FACT:During the impeachment hearings, Clinton's approval rating was 72%. Even a majority of Republicans polled thought impeachment was a waste of time, but senior House leadership (Repubs) went forward with it anyway.
FACT:When Clinton left office his approval rating was 63%, the highest approval rating of any exiting president in U.S. history. Higher than even Reagan's exit approval rating.
srfnsnw100 ...
As much as I hate Bush, (And I do.) Iraq isn't the biggest military blunder in the history of the USA. VietNam is. 55,000 American deaths versus 4,500 (and counting, of course). And VietNam can (mostly) be laid at the feet of two Democrats: Kennedy and Johnson. (As evil as Nixon was - and he was - he gets a pass on VietNam for the same reason President Obama gets a pass on Iraq. Both inherited the war in a state where there was little they could do but grit their teeth and tough it out.)
"Just one reason why watching too much Dumb FUX NEWS makes one a...well you know what it makes a person."
Yeah, it makes a person a PutAmericaFirst'er. They couldn't get Clinton with their Whitewater circus, so they impeached him for lying about sex, which was a put-up job by GOP hitman Ken Starr from the start.
I sincerely believe that PAF and today's GOP would be quite at home in 1930s Germany. To think, we fought a World War to rid the world of Nazis, only to see their successors thriving in our own back yard. What a tragic waste they've made of that sacrifice!
That's absolutely right, lbjack!
I love reading history. Understanding what has happened teaches you so much about what can happen.
People forget that Hitler won a democratic election before he became a dictator. Newt, however, with his smug womanizing and greedy love of material things, reminds me more of Mussolini.
with Cain out, the field narrows.
Newt--- I need 12 bellmen to get my baggage upstairs.
Mittens--- I tie my dog to the roof of my car.
some crazy guy from Texas
Another crazy guy from Texas
And..............The Moonbat from minnesota
I don't know why anyone would want to win Iowa, as it worked so well for these past first and second place finishers: Dick Gephardt, Tom Harkin, Mike Huckabee, Steve Forbes, Pat Robertson, Pat Buchanan and Gart Hart.
Rick, just a small fact that you should consider: Iowa picked Obama over the Democratic Party favorite, Hilary Clinton.
I see the far left, and right, are posting on here today.. Newt won't beat Obama. I'm republican and I won't vote for him, or Romney. Why is this article avoiding Huntsman or Ron Paul (I'd not vote for him either)?
Obama failed. He focused on Health Care, rammed that through, and forgot about anything else. He's never accomplished anything of real meaning (in his life) outside running for President.
Newt is a two faced liar who cheats and steals within the law.
You extremist need to get off your extreme views and go for someone that will change politics/Washington for the better.
Obama rammed health care reform through? In truth, he had very little to do with formulating the bill which was passed by a majority of both houses, thus representing the wishes of the majority of Americans.
But I do agree that the current and past "leaders" in the GOP primary haven't a snowball's chance in hell of being elected.
Extreme Views !!????
President Obama is currently sacrificing his support from the extreme wing of his own party precisely because he's a moderate, thoughtful leader. I wish he would take the fight to the enemy (the Republican obstructionists in Congress) more than he does. But, after more thoughtful reflection, I can see how he's genuinely doing the best that can be done for America, rather than his own election prospects.
It appears that Iowans have decided that Newt Gingrich is the best person to take on Obama intellectually on the most important issues. Despite Gingrich's personal issues, his leadership experience, as former Speaker of the House, his political contacts, and his ability to articulate publicly seem to matter more. Mitt Romney definitely has a great resume, and appears more presidential, but I think too many questions remain for Iowans who do not have experience or knowledge of Mormonism.
Gingrich has the same kind of leadership experience that Boss Tweed of Tammany Hall did. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boss_Tweed if you skipped high school history class.) History is replete with demagogues like him. And they often do a lot of damage to the people they use and trample before they're done.
The guy is a stinking rag. I still have enough confidence in people to think that he'll only go so far before they wake up and figure it out.
http://porterrockwell.newsvine.com/_news/2011/11/18/8886563-whats-your-prediction
Darn! I quoted the URL of the wrong column. The correct one is:
http://porterrockwell.newsvine.com/_news/2011/11/15/8820495-inevitable-romney
I do not understand how a conservative state like Iowa can be supporting a morally and ethically bankrupt candidate such as Newt.
For him to claim that he hasn't made millions in lobbying is simply a bald face lie. He is the only speaker of the house forced from his leadership position by his own party was unethical behavior and also sanctioned by the house. His total lack of fidelity to either of his former wives is well documented.
I watched a television interview with him from the 99s where he said that poor children should be taken from single mothers and put in orphanages where they would be better off. Now he is saying poor children should be put to work in cleaning their schools because they don't have a work ethic.
I just don't understand why anyone could support this man.
Y'know...
IF The Newt gets the Repub nod, it won't just be about his womanizing and adultery, though that will, in all likelihood, keep him from getting a lot of support from the evangelical side (though some of the evange-politico's will talk about "forgiveness" and "repentance."
No, where he will eat his own lunch is when his opponents start dragging out his disgraceful and sudden exit from the House after his many ethics violations came to light. The Newt is banking on Americans having a short memory.
And I'm not so sure "owning" up to unethical behavior and declaring his "repentance" will take care of that.
It's a sad day for the Repubs when someone with the baggage of The Newt can emerge as their best bet. If he's the nominee, he's going to get his clock cleaned.
Please tell us something we don't know. That's old news we've already considered months ago.
Hey Brianb and all you others who say the president's spending spree has us where we are today.....Congress appropriates not the pres, go to civics class then come back after you have learned how it works.
Paul-794119
Not when the other choice is to burden our kids with the NEVER ENDING debt for life like we have now.
Things like FREEDOM FROM DEBT FOR LIFE are far more important than past private life smears from you.
Interesting...one person's truth is another person's "smear."
Sums up the difference between us very well...thanks 3rdparty.
Personally, I hope you vote for a 3rd party candidate. Makes the inevitable Obama win even more likely.
Not to mention that Republicans are, historically, much more likely to drown us in debt than Democrats.
http://jimcgreevy.com/gvdc/Natl_Debt_Chart.html
Okay how about a public statement for you, let the poor 2nd and 3rd graders learn how to work by scrubbing school toilets. What a racist bunch of crap that is while also advocating child labor, what is this 1820? Typical millionare politician....
Can you please link where he said 2nd graders? I think you're a tad hysterical here friend.
Most of the kids at my towns high school are begging for some of those jobs. Help out in the cafeteria, sweeping and mopping halls and raking leaves.
My kids, like me are being rasied on a farm. They well know what a back ache keeping a vegtable garden is like. They well know what a blister feels like raking up the horse stalls. They well know what cleaning chicken poop off freah eggs is and how steam rises off the guts of a slaughtered beef on a winter morning to fill the freezer for winter.
Yes my kids will be able to feed themself no matter how hard times get and they well know how keep themself safe from those who'd come and try to steal it from them.
Yes we have plenty of deer meat in our freezer no need for a food stamp here. What a novel way to raise a kid. Learning to work and feed yourself. How terrible.
You're right, 3rdparty, he didn't say second graders. He was referring to 9-year-olds.
Wow, can't get anything past you, eh?
:::jeeez:::
Evidently the dems did not get to the part in the article that said "Obama is underwater in the first two primary and critical states".
Anyone want to bet that the media is for the current administration as they know the current administration is going to create the kind of news our current media really likes to report on. I hate the media as much as I hate what our government (past and current)has done to this country. Sad thing is, because I am a working American that pays taxes and has no out of control debt I'm a minority and I'm helping to support the growing population our current government is turning to for votes. Buying the votes from those that think freedom is all about a government taking care of them. Sorry folks - that isn't the way it's suppose be be and someday, soon, this will change and you bastards that think you can have something for nothing are going to wonder what the hell happened.
I am a Democrat and will not support any of these candidates. But I am surprised that the press downplays Ron Paul. He is steadily climbing and seems to do the best in a heads up race with Obama yet the press seems to ignore him. He seems the most honest of all the candidates.
Ron Paul loses all support from most when he says it's ok for Iran to have a nuke.
PERIOD.
Besides that, Americans couldn't handle they type of America Ron Paul would create.
No government hand outs, no more grants of any kind, it would be like the wild west again and you'd work or starve.
Americans can barely wait 3 minutes for a microwave to heat a cup of soup, lol and you think they'd be able to handle a Ron Paul America? LMAO lol lmao some more.
Ron Paul is honest all right. Honestly nuts!
He paints this gauzy picture of everybody shouldering their own burden and total unfettered individual freedom that is completely unconnected with reality. It's kinda like voting for King Arthur.
The world ain't like that. We need a realist, a moderate, and a practical thinker. Like President Obama!
The Scarlet Letter Express is rolling soon to visit Newt on the campaign trail.
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Evil is alive and well in America.
Yep, it is. Great definition for the current Republican party.
Conservatives love their womanizers.
This article is WRONG. MSNBC has incorrectly reported Romney in 2nd at 18 percent and Paul in 3rd at 17%. The correct numbers are Romney in 3rd at 16% and Paul in 2nd at 18%. Go to the Iowa Register online site like I just did a few minutes ago and you will find this to be correct. 6 hours ago MSNBC put out a "firstread" article reporting the correct poll numbers with Paul in 2nd and Romney in 3rd. I guess they decided reporting "that" truth was too risky and opted for a more palatable article instead. Leave it to the news media once again to fudge the numbers in order to sway public opinion.