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Subscribe to RSSFour storylines you shouldn’t miss in from our new NBC/WSJ poll: 1) Perry’s candidacy is in serious trouble… 2) Obama still enjoys incredible support among African Americans… 3) Obama’s weakness with the middle of the country… 4) Americans are looking for a populist… Cain to hold press conference to defend himself from latest accusation… White House news: Rouse steps up, Daley steps back… The five Election 2011 contests we’re watching today… And Senate Dems gets their candidate in North Dakota.
*** Four storylines you shouldn’t miss: Beyond the big headlines from our new NBC/WSJ poll (the public’s pessimism, President Obama’s upside-down approval rating, Romney and Cain leading the GOP race and the president's surprising leads over his potential GOP foes given the pessimistic views of his presidency), there are four important storylines you shouldn’t miss. The first: Rick Perry’s candidacy is in serious trouble and he might not be able to recover. In our first survey after the sexual-harassment allegations against Herman Cain surfaced, it's Perry that actually lost ground in the Republican horserace (from 16% in October to 10% now) -- while Mitt Romney (from 23% to 28%) and Newt Gingrich (from 8% to 13%) gained ground, and Cain actually stayed steady (from 27% to 27%). In addition, in a hypothetical two-way GOP race, Romney leads Perry by nearly a 2-to-1 margin, 62%-33%. (By comparison, Romney runs neck-and-neck against Cain in a similar two-way race, 49%-48%.) And Perry’s fav/unfav among REPUBLICAN primary voters is a pedestrian 33%-23%, versus Cain’s 52%-19% and Romney’s 46%-17%. Re-read those last set of numbers: Perry has HIGHER negative ratings than either Cain or Romney (at least before yesterday's new Cain allegation).
*** Obama’s strength with African Americans: A second storyline you shouldn’t miss is Obama’s incredible strength with African-American voters. While some Beltway chatter and commentary has suggested that the president is losing support with these voters, our NBC/WSJ poll -- which included an oversample of 400 black respondents -- paints a very different picture. According to the survey, 91% of them approve of Obama’s job (versus 44% among all poll respondents); 49% of them believe the country is headed in the right direction (versus 19% of all respondents); 92% would vote for Obama over Romney (versus 49%); 93% would vote for Obama over Cain (versus 53%); and 59% of them say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in 2012. If Obama wins re-election next year, he can thank this support from African Americans and (to a lesser extent) Latino voters. By the way, the president doesn't lose any African-American support even in the hypothetical three-way matchups with Ron Paul or Michael Bloomberg. The president does NOT have a problem with African-Americans; folks should stop wasting news ink and bandwidth on that topic. Beyond one or two grumpy members of the Congressional Black Caucus, there's no ACTUAL evidence in the community at-large.
*** Obama’s weakness with the middle of the country: Here’s a third storyline: If Obama is sitting pretty with his African-American base, the same can’t be said with the middle of the country. In our poll, 56% of independents, 57% of suburban residents, and 52% of folks from the Midwest disapprove of the president’s job. And in a hypothetical match-up against Romney, independents and suburban residents swing for Romney, while folks from the Midwest are split between Obama and Romney. So if Obama’s base could explain why he wins re-election, his struggles with the middle of the country could explain why he loses in 2012.
*** Looking for a populist: And here’s a fourth storyline: Heading into 2012, America is looking for a populist. According to the poll, a whopping 76% agree with the statement that the current economic structure of the country is out of balance and favors a small proportion of the rich over the rest of the country. However, another 53% of respondents agree with the statement that the national debt must be cut significantly by reducing spending and the size of government. By the way, nearly 40% of all those surveyed agree with BOTH statements about the unfairness of the economic system and the size of government issue. Also, half of all respondents in the poll identify with either the Occupy Wall Street movement or the Tea Party (and 4% of all respondents identify with both). There's an angry electorate out there, ideologically spread across the political spectrum. If the major party nominees are Obama and Romney, can either be seen as a convincing populist that will fill this void? Or are we headed for a multi-candidate field with 3rd and 4th party candidates for the general?
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll looks at voters' sentiments one year ahead of the presidential election. NBC's Chuck Todd has more.
*** Cain to hold press conference to defend himself: This sums up your race for the GOP presidential nomination: Yesterday, Gloria Allred and a client made new sexual-harassment allegations against Herman Cain at the Friar’s Club, and Cain made his rebuttal on Jimmy Kimmel. And today, at 3:00 pm ET in Scottsdale, AZ, Cain will hold a press conference to address these new charges.
*** Rouse steps up, Daley steps back: As we and Bloomberg News reported over a month ago, White House senior adviser Pete Rouse was stepping up his day-to-day duties in running the West Wing, especially as it relates to dealing with Congress. And today’s Wall Street Journal report formalizes that news: “On Monday, [White House Chief of Staff Bill] Daley turned over day-to-day management of the West Wing to Pete Rouse, a veteran aide to President Obama, according to several people familiar with the matter… The recalibration of Mr. Daley's portfolio, agreed to by Mr. Obama, is designed to smooth any kinks in the president's team as it braces for the overlapping demands of governing while campaigning for re-election, people familiar with the matter said. The West Wing is preparing for budget battles with Congress and is seeking to use its executive powers more extensively.”
AP
White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley at the G20 Summit in Cannes, France, Thursday, Nov. 3, 2011.
*** On the 2012 trail: The day before tomorrow’s CNBC debate in Michigan, Santorum makes several campaign stops in New Hampshire.
*** The five contests we’re watching today: It’s Election Day 2011, and here are the five contests we’re watching today, as we wrote yesterday: 1) the referendum on the anti-collective-bargaining law in Ohio, where polls close at 7:30 pm ET; 2) the governor’s race in Kentucky, where all polls close at 7:00 pm ET; 3) the governor’s race in Mississippi, where polls close at 8:00 pm ET; 4) the “personhood”/abortion amendment in Mississippi; and 5) the battle of control for the state Senate in Virginia, where polls close at 7:00 pm ET.
*** Dems get their candidate in North Dakota: Democrats are facing an uphill challenge to hold on to the Senate seat that Kent Conrad (D) is vacating after next year in red North Dakota. But they are celebrating the news that Heidi Heitkamp (D) has entered the race. DSCC Executive Director Guy Cecil today released recent Democratic polling data showing that likely GOP nominee Rick Berg leads a generic Democrat by just four points, 44%-40%. “A ‘generic Democrat’ is only four points down from Berg in a state that does not like generic Democrats,” Cecil writes. “Heidi Heitkamp is no generic Democrat. She is an independent, reform-minded, fiscal conservative, who is widely known across the state for her tough, principled leadership as Attorney General and her fight against big tobacco companies to help North Dakota taxpayers.”
*** Tuesday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Digging into the new NBC/WSJ poll with pollsters Peter Hart and Micah Roberts… One of us (!!!) with more on today's votes… NBC's Pete Williams on changes in state voter identification laws… NBC's Kelly O'Donnell on the outlook for 2012 Senate races… And more campaign trail news with NPR'S Ari Shapiro, the Washington Post's Anne Kornblut and former DNC spokesman and Democratic strategist Karen Finney.
*** Tuesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, NBC’s Pete Williams, Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS), the AFL-CIO’s Richard Trumka, and strategists Bob Shrum (D) and Vin Weber (R).
Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 56 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 74 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 84 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 88 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 119 days
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I think Perry's happy speech in new england did him in. It was totally unpresidential. Cain's 27% support is not personal, but rather a brand. It obviously stems from who he represents, Americans for Prosperity, Koch brothers, etc. They would care less if he smokes crack or beats his wife. Men need to be free after all. The harrassment issue will hurt Cain from gaining support from the remaining 73% of republicans though, which means he will not win the primary. Romney will win and the conservative revolution will end. RIP.
Cain never really had a chance for the Republican nomination. Romney will win the nomination and hopefully the Republican party will move closer to the middle.
I can't help but chuckle when I read the comments from you white people who act as if you're an expert on Black America and understand how black people think and act, when in fact you don't know anything about us. The reason why most black voters support Obama is because 91% of registered black voters are registered Democrats, so of course they're still going to support him just like the white republican voters who stood behind Bush despite all his failures and fiascos. Cain is a perfect example of what's wrong with black republicans such as Alan Keyes, J.C. Watts, Condolezza Rice, and Michael Steele; they ignore issues that are of concern to the black community, they talk down to blacks in a condescending manner as if we're stupid, are in denial about the problem of racism, and yet when something happens they're quick to play the race card and wonder why none of their "brothers" are there to defend them. And I would also like to point out that I'm a black man who's worked almost every day since I was 15, has been paying taxes since I was 18, served in the Marine Corps and has two college degrees so I'm not some liberal who's sitting around on welfare with no job and waiting for the government to take care of me. I'm just saying...
For those who say to wait until the GOP gets it down to one candidate, just think. THEN the faults, of the one Obama-slayer, will be magnified. The GOP machine has ALREADY spent it "load" on magnifying Obama's faults. Just imagine when the Democratic machine starts in on the GOP nominee!!
I do not see anything in this article that everyone did not already know. I will say the GOP has not shown me a candidate I will vote for (I am Republican). With that said, I do see a real need for our President to step up and for Congress to quit the BS, we are in a tough time and need leaders not people who want to see their name in the paper. I think he is starting to get that, at least it seems so.
If the GOP wants my vote, I need to hear what they will do to really fix the country, not just point out what is wrong with it. I need to hear what they plan to do that our President is not willing to do.
If the President would like my vote I need to see a little less talk and more action. Walk to the middle of the isle like you said you would and find Republicans willing to work with you. Take a stance and not flip flop. You lost me 100% with the Healthcare reform but you have been getting me back with a few other things. I do not blame the economy on the current President, however I am seeing a lot of missed opportunities out there. I will say, on the war front you have (or your Generals have) done a Great job thus far.
The more I write, the more I see this is a total 100% political problem and not just a Presidential one. We need all new leaders across the board. It is sad that we only have (I think) 454 people who run the country and we cant find more than just a few honest ones.
That is who gets my vote. The one who stands up for what they really believe in, not what is popular to say at the time.
My largest reason for moving to the current President is history shows us that 2nd term Presidents typically get more done than 1st term. We need things done in this country. The country ran best (in recent times) when we had a republican congress and a dem for President.
healthcare reform is wildly unpopular because of misinformation spread about it... It is near identical to what Romney did in Massachusetts and it has been working there for years now with HUGE support among Republicans and Democrats in that state, they love it... No reason it cannot work for everyone... and you hear mitt romney say, "well each state should be able to do what is right for their own state" and the fact is that the healthcare law itself says that after a few years, if a state can submit their own plan that still gives coverage to everyone, then they can opt out of the healthcare law in favor of their own... the law is actually really reasonable and has been shown to work already in Massachusetts
Hey! Josh! I don't care WhY Odumbo care is wildly unpopular and I don't even agree with you on your points but the main point is it is, we did not want it and that should be what decides what our a holes in Govermenment do. THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE>
I wanted it, in fact the country was split directly down the middle about it.... And it does not matter if you agree with my points or not because they are facts. And a fact remains a fact whether you agree with it or not.
63% of Massachusetts residents support the health care reform legislation enacted in 2006, 21% oppose it... Those are numbers from this year and the approval ratings of the law have only continues to go up since it was enacted in 2006
Josh, Read this article.
Massachusetts implemented health care reform to increase employer-based insurance and to provide no-cost or low-cost insurance to those unable to afford it but it hasn't worked - the uninsured in Massachusetts remain predominantly the working poor, according to a new study by researchers at Harvard Medical School.
http://www.science20.com/news_articles/health_care_reform_massachusetts_working_poor_still_are_not_covered-82765
That article points out a problem with a specific, small group of people. Massachusetts still cut their unemployment rate by half. Their problem could be remedied with a public option, something the Obama administration wanted to include in the healthcare law for that very reason but the public was scared out of it. The problem could be remedied in several ways all by making adjustments to the law which has, overall, been a success.
***correction*** - Massachusetts still cut their UNINSURED rate by half. - not unemployment, i mistyped
Scott ( If you watch my lips, my eyes don't look crosseyed ) Walker has stated that they will no longer refer to the Holiday Tree as the Holiday Tree, "it's a Christmas Tree" he said, "it's a Christmas Tree".
So much for respecting other peoples faiths.
I don't see how calling Christmas Tree a Christmas Tree is not showing respect for other peoples faiths. The holiday after all is Christmas. Should would rename all religious symbols to non disrespectful names? Not that it really matters to me. I'm an Atheist.
I am atheist too. You just do not comprehend.
The polls taken yesterday says the dems win this vote. My local new paper says that tommorrow with no money left to pay everyone, local union firefighters, police and teachers will be let go from thier jobs.
We can't print money or pull it from our azzes and we won't be borrowing it either.
Who would have thought the Ronald Regan was qualified to be President. Turns out he was the best in my life time!!! He was smart and surrounded himself with smart, knowledgable people and he listened. We the people need to atempt to look deep into this problem in Washington. It is up to us to solve it. If an Actor can make a good President why not a business man. They don't have to come from the system!!!!
Hey - MSNBC! For every day you do one of these stories why not a story on someone who has lost everything in this depression and who THEY would vote for. Hit all the demographics. Do your COUNTRY a favor for one damn election and not your douche-bag in the white house.
Why Vote ? The Kangaroo Court ( AKA Supreme Court ) has giving control of America over to Corporations and special interest groups. Politicians have been " bought and sold ".
RP 2012!!! - stop all your bitchin' people. Vote for the only candidate that has been consistant for more than 25 years. He, as all of us should, breathes the constitution. No stupid sex scandals, no crap in the closet. The man follows the letter of the law and has always been honest. He is the only candidate that will get rid of at all costs, both the IRS and the FED. WAKE UP FOLKS before you put another bought and paid for politician in office. There will be no redos this time.
Brad - if he was a serious contender MSNBC would dig up some women who have had sex with him. Of course they pay them 50K to tell there story but hey, it's news and it keeps the heat off the worst President in History.
Probably true. The difference is simple. Cain is new to all of America and already has a track record, that I believe must have some truth to it. If i were the NRA, I would have fired him after the second pay off. There are way richer folks in the world who would be bigger targets for larger payouts than Cain was in 99'. Why would these women settle for less than there annual income if there was no truth to the accusations? Dr. Paul could be a target, but the bought and paid for media has been instructed to ommit him from every story possible. The banks run the world, and Ron Paul is the only one talking about stopping it from continuing.
Accusations against Mr. Cain are just that, accusations. These women prostituted themselves for no other reason that to accel their own agenda, be it job, money, status. Who knew 12 to 20 yrs ago that Mr. Cain might run for ANY office, much less the presidency? Now, it's alright to destroy someone's character with slander.....besides that, if they really felt they had an issue, it should have been made public when it happened, not when it suits their agenda.
Patricia: It will only be slander if Cain proves he did not do it .Up to this point he has not handled these accusations well at all. He has seemed arrogant at some points and above it all at other times.The fact that settlements were reached at least twice would indicate that at some point something did occur.
Gee...what's with so many non-threatening, collapsed comments, First Read? FR, or the whiner's must be losing their spine.
So MIke Huckabee says that you should calll your friends and if they are not going to support Kasich, you should let the air out of their tires.
He's some class act!
Yeah like the 50 or so democrats that thought they'd be cute and offer to take the elderly republicans to the polls. Then their names were found on the democrat rolls and told not to bother. Not to worry, the elderly have back up.
Only the most gullible, naive, or ignorant among us can't see that we have a broken political system
However, the paradox is that we have to use the broken system to elect people to change the very system that benefits them
The chances of that happening grows more remote by the day and the dreaded "R" word increases by the day
If Odumbo represented the 99%, then why did he give away my tax dollars to all these fatcats? Solyndra what was that. Odumbo had his head so far up someones a ss on this. This imbecile only impresses the darkies no one else. I guess its also the fault of all the white voters that voted for this muslim/american in the first place. Putting a black man in as president when the population is a majority black/hispanic, how the hell do you think we'll ever get this cracker out of office? Shame on the whiteys. A warmonger ie: Bushor one of the other warmonger candidates, I guess was a better bet than this idiot.
It was Bush who gave away money to fatcats through TARP, but he actually had good reason for it - because otherwise millions of people would have been irreparably harmed by the big banks collapsing... did anybody like it? no. Did it save a lot of regular people from being worse off? yes... But regardless of if you agree with TARP or not, that was Bush NOT Obama!! And the Solyndra loan was crafted by republicans under Bush, the Obama administration just decided to approve it along with a slew of other green investments. Should they have approved it? well looking back, no. But nothing illegal was done, that is just the nature of investments, sometimes they fail... maybe if the USA was investing heavily in renewable energy like China and the rest of the world, Solyndra could have competed but for some reason the USA is trying to make all these cuts while the rest of the world is gaining the upper hand on all the technology
Is anyone worried that the republican party or tea party might insert a candidate at the last minute who can ride on a wave of excitement for a few weeks/months to the election without getting thoroughly vetted? Look at how Palin, Perry, Cain et al had great support for a short while before anything was known about them. No one in the GOP/TP field is tenable. I'm watching out for the submarine campaign.
This is why I will run again for Congress. Even though I don't have a chance in hell of winning, I still have to say that I stood up for my democracy and offered the voters a choice that wasn't Democrat, Republican or Tea Party.
I would also like to know why most "normal" hardworking people are attacked so diligently on their background and past employments. Is this the way you gratify having corruption and corrupted people in office? We have nothing but corrupt politicians in DC at present. Why is it that a businessman (any businessperson for that matter) slandered and dumped on. If Mr. Cain drops out of this race, you don't have anyone who is qualilfied and uncorrupted politically.
YES GET OUT AND VOTE!! And to all the teaparty bashers... The teaparty people are all back home working, raising their families and back to being regular day citizens. Unlike the OWS who are now constructing winter residence.... Disgusting... Protesting is not a lifestyle... Will they get out and vote today????
The real four things thatto do is, one "Be a Real President" not a wanta be dictator. Two Stop selling out the US. Three Be a man and step up to his failures, and four Stop shoving things up our backsides then telling Us that We need to pay for things that WE DON"T WANT OR NEED.
You Mr President are the worst president EVER.
Can you imagine if President Obama would be accused of the same as Grab Ass Cain has been? Fox News would be on a 24/7 crusade and the actors would be in 7th heaven. I can't believe that even the far right Tea Party Crazies would have to admit there's a double standard from the left to the right.
I would like to know how a man how said this in Eygpt in 2010 is our president in the first place. Please watch our president admit something he and his staff and supporters said was true about his place of birth. Wow you will be surprised.
Direction of Country
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl
Right Direction 19, Wrong Track 73
Wrong Track +54
You don't get to 73% wrong track just with republicans.
And I'd like to meet the 19% who thinks we're on the right track.
I would like to know how a man how said this in Eygpt in 2010 is our president in the first place. Please watch our president admit something he and his staff and supporters said was true about his place of birth. Wow you will be surprised.
The last year of Jimmy Carter was one of the most painful in history, but it was also light at the end of the tunnel. The light will once again shine in 363 days.