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Subscribe to RSSRepublicans on Tuesday released an arguably rosy calculus of just how their eventual nominee might beat President Obama in 2012.
The Republican National Committee said its road to 270 (the number of electoral votes needed to win the presidency) counts on Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia -- three traditionally Republican states won by Obama in 2008 -- to flip back to the GOP. Victories there, combined with wins in two other swing states, would bring the GOP nominee close to the White House, the RNC asserted.
"If Obama loses these states and remains unable to widen the map, the GOP nominee will be only 51 electoral Votes away from the White House," wrote Rick Wiley, the RNC's political director, in a memo released this morning.
What's more, Wiley broadcast just where Republicans might focus to pick up most of those additional electoral votes: Ohio and Florida.
"Forty-seven of the remaining Electoral Votes necessary for the GOP nominee could come from the perennial bellwethers of Ohio and Florida alone," he said. "If these states were to fall, then there are numerous possibilities for the remaining four Electoral Votes needed by the GOP nominee to win."
But victories in those states aren't a sure thing. Obama leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry -- the three GOP candidates leading the presidential primary field -- in current polling.
Obama would beat Romney, for instance, 45-41 percent in Ohio, according to an Oct. 26 Quinnipiac University poll. Obama beats Cain and Perry by wider margins, according to the same poll. Obama also leads those candidates in Florida. He has an edge on Romney, 45-43 percent, in the latest NBC News/Marist poll, and would beat Perry, 47-39 percent, and Cain, 47-41 percent.
However, Obama’s percentages in all the states are in the mid- to high-40s; incumbents are on safer ground when they’re closer to 50 percent.
And victories in North Carolina and Virginia aren't sure things, either. Romney leads Obama in Virginia, according to a mid-Oct. Quinnipiac poll, but only by one point. Obama leads other would-be Republican challengers, like Perry and Cain.
And Obama's shown little interest in ceding those states, anyway; the second leg of his recent bus tour this month took him through both North Carolina and Virginia, and the 2012 Democratic National Convention's backdrop in Charlotte is a move intended to keep those states in the Democratic column.
But even if Obama loses Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, he could still get more than 270 electoral votes by winning three other states he carried in 2008 – Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.
Wiley sought to address those in his memo:
States like Nevada - where unemployment and foreclosure rates have skyrocketed - or Iowa, Colorado, or New Mexico – where George W. Bush was victorious in 2004 – could each push a Republican nominee across the finish line. Furthermore, if otherwise-reliable blue prizes like Michigan or Pennsylvania, where polling shows even lower job approval numbers than Florida and Ohio, were to switch to the GOP column, then the number of bank-shots Obama will need through the Electoral College will be nearly impossible to make. Other, smaller ‘blue’ states like Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Washington aren’t exactly “gimmes” either.
You can check the electoral math with the National Archives' 2012 Electoral College Calculator.
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The GOP may have more problems in Ohio and Florida than they think. Their attacks on social security and medicare will galvanize the retired community here in Florida. And Governor Kasich is doing more to get the progressive vote out with his anti-middle class policies. Both states have a lot of angry voters - angry at the GOP.
Really when President Obama faces whatever clown from the list of fools running in the GOP/Tea Nut candidates, they can throw all their calculations out the window. Our President will beat the fools hands down
They must still be redistricting and needed guidance eh?
I agree. Almost all the Republicans in Congress voted on the "Paul Ryan plan to kill Medicare." That will hurt the GOP, especially in Florida.
And that the Ryan Kill/Voucherize Medicare plan offset the "gains" in Medicare costs with tax cuts for Paris Hilton...
Look, nobody is better at screwing up messaging than the Democratic Party, but even THEY would be hard pressed to mess this one up.
...
This reminds me of George Clooney's terrific movie, THE IDES OF MARCH, which is set in Ohio, but in primary season.
Ironically, the Clooney-character candidate reminded me most of Mitt Romney.
Will life imitate art in the Ohio primary?
Cain had his biggest day of fundraising yesterday. Perry looked awful on tv this morning. Obama's assertion on his bus tour that he is taking over because "we can't wait" is all air, no cash, it does get hopes up for day until people figure out there is no authority behind it, and then what?
Ron Paul is solid with Republican youth yet never seen on tv.
Oh, the markets have crashed worldwide, and Wisconsin Democrats must find another darling to run against Scott Walker in the Wisconsin recall election in January because Corzine is caught in a mingling deal.
"If Obama loses these states and remains unable to widen the map, the GOP nominee will be only 51 electoral Votes away from the White House,"
And, IF the dog hadn't stopped to pinch a loaf, he MIGHT have caught the rabbit.
But serriously, folks- if we can just strategically suppress enough of the right votes, we're in!
scott-579755
Cain had his biggest day of fundraising yesterday
scott,
It won't do KochCAIN any good.
How 'bout those FCC violations on Cain???
Can you hear the sound of the squeaky handles and keys locking the jail door on Cain?
http://www.partnersinrhyme.com/soundfx/door_sounds/door_door-knob_wav.shtml
I'd love to see the list of people who contributed to Cain's campaign yesterday.
Just goes to show what they value, doesn't it?
Corzine? No thanks.
We've already got our own corrupt governor -- Scott Walker, the illustrious subject of a John Doe probe into campaign law violations and blatant cronyism.
And if you're suggesting he's a better governor than any joe off the street, then it just goes to show what YOU value.
No authority? Actually, go back to First Thoughts and read about executive orders, which have been used by all presidents since 1789.
I hope this morning outside contributors to fund the petition drive to have a recall election in Wisconsin will be scrambling to find a better target candidate than Corzine in light of this morning's development.
I agree totally the President has the authority to talk. However, the President needs money authorized by the stalemated Congress to back up promises.
Well, Lucky for the RNC those states both have Republican Governors,...
Makes one wax nostalgic for Jeb Bush and Katherine Harris, no?
I am sure whatever happens will be ABOVE board and beyond reproach. Well, Okay, I am NOT sure; but I am hopefully optimistic. Okay, all right, you've caught me,...I think what I am trying to say is, "What could possibly go wrong with THIS?"
What does Corzine (the former Governor of New Jersey) have to do with Scott Walker in Wisconsin?
Did I miss something, did he move to Wisconsin recently? Are you confusing Scott Walker with Chris Christie?
I don't think, if the election were held today, in spite of the candidate the Republicans most likely, in my view, will pick, that any electoral votes from Southern States From Virginia on down will go to Obama.
@ Tom -- I don't get it, either. And I'm from Wisconsin.
They're not recalling Christie, as far as I know.
Well they can dream can't they? Too bad Obama is going to crush their hopes and dreams. The be better off setting their sights on 2016.
51 electoral votes? Yeah, if their redistricting gerrymandering passes.
Cheating and the GOP it's what they do.
Pretty amazing that after three years of doing anything and everything they could do to derail a presidency, along with 24/7/365 non stop bashing of him on Fox, Obama is still quite competitive.
Bev I am so sorry for your loss, but I know the heavens have gained a new angel who loves you, and will look after you for the rest of your life, just as you did all her life.
The RNC with lowest approval numbers blah blah blah eventual nominee with approval numbers lower than the generic blah blah can come close, which doesn't count in horseshoes and elections blah blah blah...
About the Paul Ryan douche-bag plan, the AARP is already running ads to encourage seniors to fight for Medicare and Social Security benefits by demanding cuts in waste and loopholes. Of course a real solution to deficits includes REVENUE from the rich with a fair tax code, but the AARP ad is good to see.
Lookie, Cain's continued incompetence from the Tax Policy Center's debunking of 9-9-9 to "rolling disclosure" to campain funds is causing supporters to contribute even more to Cain. Why doesn't this surprise me?
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Breaking News LEAD for FR reporters!!! Perry's speech on Friday was not the first time he has behaved as if he was desperate and drunk. Do the homework and you'll find video of him early in the campaign in which he is similarly animated, even effeminate, and certainly not presidential. This is Perry's REAL persona that handlers have successfully controlled until Friday.
Yeh, we know.
Clara -- I wish I could share the optimism, but Jan Brewer is trying to impeach the district board in Arizona because they didn't gerrymander with bias toward Teapublicans. We must keep a close watch on all these GOP/TP governors and their machinations.
Hard to believe teachers would vote Republican in 2012, given the way they have been scapegoated, robbed and smeared by the GOP. Not a good group to tick off. Teachers vote.
Teachers or fire fighters or police ! They all got screwed ! Layoffs and pension wise !
I'm a bit surprised the Republicans haven't attempted to make it illegal for public employees to vote. They've spent so much time turning teachers, cops and firefighters into public enemy number 2 (number 1 being those from Mexico) I'm amazed they haven't moved to cut them off completely from the electoral process. Sure, they've done their best to destroy the unions those dastardly public servants are a part of, but unions don't vote, people do.
I'd say this is an oversight of stupendous proportion, but not in the least surprising given today's Republican Party.
Hard to believe taxpayers would vote Democrat in 2012, given the failed schools, out of control budgets and teachers' unions bribing Democratic candidates to oppose education reform at every step.
The reason everything is failing is the Bush Tax cuts .The government has had little or no income for almost 12 years now ...But don't worry the Congress and Senate have become multimillionaires !
Kudos. You have, perhaps unwittingly, and in the in fewest words I've ever seen, explained why corporations, like unions, are not persons.
Too bad you're such a tool that reasonable people have given up trying to talk to you.
Me, too, actually.
The gridlock in government may very well continue at least until January 2013. And talk about kicking the can down the road, after the "Trigger" takes effect in December 2011 due to inaction of government, I predict Congress and the President will rescind the "Trigger".
If President Obama remains in office after the 2012 election, without regaining majority control of both the House or the Senate, gridlock will continue until until January 2017 unless both houses of Congress can over-ride the President.
Say it ain't so ....and they still want more tax cuts for the top 2% and forget about those in the middle...
Nothing turns a conservative republican into a liberal democrat faster than a pink slip, you don't think republicans go without unemployment benefits and food-stamps when they themselves are laid off do you. They don't, and they see those things in a whole new light when they personally need them. It's only a socialist plan to redistribute the wealth when the other guy gets some help, when they collect it is a social safety net.
*
Good to see the Republican National Committee beginning the speculation early about the electoral votes. :o)
Meanwhile their candidates need no speculation on the part of the primary voters.Seem that they are UNENTHUSED by their choices.
The tea people GOP republicans better worry about getting a candidate, instead of fantasizing about the electoral college. They don't have a chance with the field they have.
As a resident of Virginia, I would bet the farm (if I owned one) that the GOP will win easily here.
It is almost too bad...because if Virginia's electoral votes were seriously at issue, that would increase the odds of an up-and-coming GOP superstar -the tremendously popular Governor Bob McDonnell, to get the VP nomination.
Whatever happened to Virginia? You voted in the best senator in Congress, Mark Warner, after he did a great job as your governor, and now you're falling down into Palin-ville. What's up with that?
Bob-1887910
"As a resident of Virginia, I would bet the farm (if I owned one)..."
You do realize, of course, the reason you don't own a farm is: it's your fault. I know- it seems obvious, but thought I better remind you.
I wouldn’t bet anything I wasn’t willing to lose there sport.
As for Mr. McDonnell being enormously popular think of this
Mr. McDonnell ran on the promise that he was going to privatize the Liquor stores and use the Largesse to fix roads in Northern Va. Well the State still owns the Liquor stores and my commute has gone from an hour each way to an hour and a half. How do you think that’s going to play in Peoria.
Bob -- Do you like what some group did over there sending out that disgusting email?
It's easy for the president to slam the Republicans as nothing but a bunch of extreme Tea Party radicals with a horrible agenda for America. The people of this country generally agree, with the recent poll showing the Tea Party is less popular than atheists, or whatever it was. But Obama needs a positive agenda of his own. He can't simply trust that voters will flock to him because he';s not as crazy as his opponent. We need jobs. We need government investment in our future. We need a leader who will not simply "compromise," but who will, you know, LEAD. http://www.sunstateactivist.org
Obama campaign strategy....
"Look I've had the job for going on 4 years. We all know I suck but the other guy might suck worse than me"
Thanks but I for one will take my chances on the other guy. It would be quite a feat to suck as bad as Obama.
I'm sure Osama bin Laden would agree with you, Rob, if he wasn't dead.
Amy... you act like Pres. Yomama pulled the trigger himself! Hahahahah! Superman that he is!
I hate to tell you but that was our FANTASTIC Military and the CIA, sister! And that would have happened no matter who was sitting in the White House!
Now...
(show me the clown nose, fisty!)
SickOfTheBickering
Amy... you act like Pres. Yomama pulled the trigger himself! Hahahahah! Superman that he is!
I hate to tell you but that was our FANTASTIC Military and the CIA, sister! And that would have happened no matter who was sitting in the White House!
Now...
(show me the clown nose, fisty)!
One thing for sure SOB, You have shown how dim witted YOU are. Without President Obama's approval no one could have pulled the trigger.
Georgie boy didn't pull the trigger either. Yet, you RWNJs feign over his destruction of the Middle East and the global economy with his 2 unpaid for fraudulent wars & tax cuts for the rich..
Learn something!!!
"And that would have happened no matter who was sitting in the White House!"
Well, unless of course, it was.....[you-know-who-from Texas].
SickOfthe Bickering
You don't think it took courage and a lot of thought for President Obama to make that judgement call? It could have turned out badly for the Seals. At least our President had the guts to continue to go after Bin Laden when George W didn't "really think about him much" or "even know if he was still alive." Mabybe instead of concentrating on going after Sadam Hussein who had nothing to do with 9-11, he would have been better off tracking down bin Laden.
NO, Karen I DON'T!
Pres. Yomama is a political creature. Is is not concerned about the risk to others... only for himself.
If he would have said no and it got out... he loses.
If he says yes and it goes bad... he still wins because he "tried" and it was the closest we every got.
You see... he had nothing to lose by saying yes. It took no courage at all for him to do that. That's why he did it ;-)
.
.
(show me the clown nose, fisty!)
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BTW Angry Bever(ly)... the manhunt was going on long be for Yomama came on the scene. All he did was say yes when someone else handed him the phone.
karen finnestad
SickOfthe Bickering
You don't think it took courage and a lot of thought for President Obama to make that judgement call? It could have turned out badly for the Seals. At least our President had the guts to continue to go after Bin Laden when George W didn't "really think about him much" or "even know if he was still alive."
Remember this karen...?
President Bush tells the world that he is "truly not that concerned" with catching the man who murdered 3,000 Americans just six months and two days earlier because-- Bush says "I don't know where he is, nor do I... (really care)."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PGmnz5Ow-o
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karen,
You hit the hammer on the nail.
LOL!
Another wonderful BEVISM!
LOL!
SickOfTheBickering
BTW Angry Bever(ly)... the manhunt was going on long be for Yomama came on the scene. All he did was say yes when someone else handed him the phone.
Sure it was that's why Bush let Bin laden go in the mountains of Tora Bora
//snip
But Bush, Cheney continue to deny Kerry charge that they let the Al Qaeda leader escape in 2001.
President Bush let Osama bin Laden get away. ...
On October 29th, the Friday before the 2004 election, Osama bin Laden released a video criticizing George Bush. Both candidates quickly condemned the video as an obvious attempt to influence the election. But at his next campaign stop, Kerry pointed out that three years after 9/11, OBL would not still be out taunting the U.S. had Bush of not let OBL get away at Tora Bora.
Most of the Republicans’ defense seems to focus on General Tommy Franks’ belief that there was no proof OBL was in even there during the siege on Tora Bora (so why even try? Was that his message?)
In case you didn’t catch it, this young Saudi boy seems to confirm that Osama bin Laden was indeed at Tora Bora with him when President Bush failed to send in American ground troops to try and capture him in December of 2001.
http://mugsysrapsheet.com/2007/07/19/did-saudi-kid-confirm-bush-let-bin-laden-escape-at-tora-bora/
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Now, Laugh Your Ass Off if you can. You've been pissed on by war profiteer Cheney and bush's other cronies in no bid contracts for oil and ill gotten goods.
When visiting this site, I often wonder what benefit this forum serves for First Read. Do the posts that offer some insight and civility (and, sometimes, humor) really compensate for the vitriol and inanity commonly displayed here by those who would display neither were it not for the anonymity provided? One has to wonder if those responsible for maintaining this site care little about the reasonable exchange of ideas and much about the juvenile exchange of insults.
@ GR you must be new here. There is no consistent moderation of this site. You should view it as entertainment with a little actual value thrown in now and then. Mostly it is the same posters with the same post everyday and a lot of tit for tat.
AMEN! Voted you up GR Adams!
I would LOVE for this site to be a place where we can exchange ideas and discuss issues in an adult, civil tone.
I have been frequenting this site for a few years now and over the past 3 years it has done nothing but collapse into the monstrosity that you see today.
I am one of the worst offenders here. I admit it. But I wasn't always this way and I am not this way on other forums. Unfortunately I could only listen for so long to the cr@p that these hateful people spew.
So eventually I adopted the old "when in Rome..." attitude.
And so here we sit. :-(
Speaking as a temporary resident of NC I really think the enormous influx of people from New England, NY, the mid-Atlantic states and Michigan almost guarantees that the President will win the three big metro areas of Raleigh, Greensboro, and Charlotte. I think that is one of the main reasons he carried NC in 2008 - that and the huge number of college students who have enthusiastically come out to his rallies this fall in various appearances.
You are aware, are you not, that Obama only carried N.C. by around 14,000 votes?
That he is seriously underwater there?
He has no chance to carry that state a gain. Nor will he carry Virginia, Indiana, or Florida. Pennsylvania is also up for grabs.
The wife should start packing.
The real test will be turnout in Ohio and Florida given the new voter ID laws. Obama may poll strong in these states only to find the day after the election Karl Rove standing there with his 50 + 1 votes and an inexplicable low turnout.
People aren't as stupid as the GOP would have us think. The people of Ohio are starting to wake up and know that they elected the wrong Gov. I don't think that the Republicans will pull the wool over our eyes for too much longer.
JoAnn, I have made statements similar to yours in the past, and the American voter has proved me wrong time and time again. The entire republican platform is dependant on the American people being misinformed or stupid enough to repeat the same mistake over and over, and the republicans have perfected how to do just that, they can twist any fact into fiction and vise-versa, don't underestimate them.
You mean when that clown O meets GOP he is toast, burnt toast, LOL.
Keep up the good work GOP, keep saying NO to this lame Admin headed by Sambo.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. There would no longer be 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of other states.
When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes-- enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.
The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for president. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided Battleground states: CO - 68%, FL - 78%, IA 75%, MI - 73%, MO - 70%, NH - 69%, NV - 72%, NM-- 76%, NC - 74%, OH - 70%, PA - 78%, VA - 74%, and WI - 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK - 70%, DC - 76%, DE - 75%, ID - 77%, ME - 77%, MT - 72%, NE 74%, NH - 69%, NV - 72%, NM - 76%, OK - 81%, RI - 74%, SD - 71%, UT - 70%, VT - 75%, WV - 81%, and WY - 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR - 80%,, KY- 80%, MS - 77%, MO - 70%, NC - 74%, OK - 81%, SC - 71%, TN - 83%, VA - 74%, and WV - 81%; and in other states polled: CA - 70%, CT - 74%, MA - 73%, MN - 75%, NY - 79%, OR - 76%, and WA - 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.
The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in AR, CT, DE, DC, ME, MI, NV, NM, NY, NC, and OR, and both houses in CA, CO, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA ,RI, VT, and WA. The bill has been enacted by DC, HI, IL, CA, NJ, MD, MA, VT, and WA. These 9 jurisdictions possess 132 electoral votes-- 49% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
NationalPopularVote.com