First Thoughts: Needing a boost

Perry in need in a strong 3rd quarter boost… Expect the Romney and Obama hauls to be smaller than last quarter… Another foreign-policy success, another yawn from the American public?... Chris Christie buzz continues… Calendar chaos: We’ll find out what Florida does today… Perry to hit Romney in 10:15 am speech from Georgia… Cain’s missed opportunity… Newt criticizes reporter for asking legitimate question… DNC airs new Spanish-language ad… And Trumka speaks at Brookings.

*** Needing a boost: With the 3rd fundraising quarter ending today, all eyes are on Rick Perry's first finance numbers. It's been a rough couple of weeks for the Texas governor, but a strong fundraising showing -- say in the neighborhood of $15 million since announcing his bid in mid-August -- would give him a much-needed boost and would solidify his chances of competing financially with Mitt Romney (who raised $18 million last quarter). More than that amount would signal some SERIOUS fundraising chops for Perry, while less than that would be considered trouble for him. Back in June, Tim Pawlenty had a rough debate performance and followed up with a poor fundraising number ($4 million-plus). The question for Perry: Can he post a total that doesn't draw any comparisons to Pawlenty? Right now, Perry World is simply promising more than $10 million.

*** Expect the Romney and Obama hauls to be smaller than last quarter: Besides Perry, the other big players are expected to post fundraising numbers less than what they raised in the 2nd quarter. It's not surprising, after all: In 2007, most of the major candidates (Obama, Romney, and McCain) had lower numbers in the 3rd quarter, which includes the usually slow month of August. (An exception was George W. Bush, who raised $50 million in the 3rd quarter of '03.) Per the Boston Globe, Romney's camp “is on pace to raise between $11 million and $13 million” (down from $18 million last quarter). The campaign would not confirm those figures to First Read, saying: “We are going to raise considerably less than what we did in our first reporting period, but we will still meet our finance goals for this quarter.” Meanwhile, Obama's re-election campaign says it's expected raise a combined $55 million for the campaign and the DNC -- less than the combined $86 million last quarter. One big reason why, per the campaign: Several fundraisers were canceled during the debt-ceiling negotiations.

AP

Republican presidential candidate Rep. Michele Bachmann (MN-6)

*** On the Bachmann, Paul, and Huntsman hauls: As for the rest, Bachmann said yesterday that her campaign “will probably be reporting even more than we have brought in before,” NBC’s Jamie Novogrod reports. (Bachmann raised just more than $4 million last quarter.) But Bachmann’s fundraising costs a lot to maintain (direct mail), and the Iowa Straw Poll was EXPENSIVE for her, so pay attention to her cash on hand. Paul reportedly will bring in $5 million for the 3rd quarter. And don’t expect a good number from Team Huntsman; there’s a reason why the campaign moved its headquarters from Florida to New Hampshire. Note: The campaigns have until Oct. 15 to file their 3rd quarter reports to the Federal Election Commission. 

*** Another Obama foreign-policy success, another yawn from the American public? Of course, the biggest news today is the death of Al Qaeda’s Anwar al-Awlaki, the American-born preacher, in Yemen. The Obama administration has confirmed al-Awlaki’s death, and NBC’s Jim Miklaszewski reports that it was a U.S. drone that killed him. No president since George H.W. Bush has had more foreign-policy successes happen under his watch than President Obama. The death of bin Laden. The dismantling of al Qaeda. The ouster of Khaddafy. And the end of combat operations in Iraq. Yet when you look at polls and Obama’s approval rating, he’s getting almost no credit from the American public, a la Bush 41. 

*** It’s the economy, stupid: When you ask the public about Obama and foreign policy, he gets good marks. But it’s not front of voters’ minds. In a bad economy, as Bush 41 learned, what happens overseas doesn’t matter. But at the margins, these successes can help the president slowly rebuild his “leadership” scores with the public and certainly they put the Republican presidential candidates in a bit more of a box in their attempts to attack the president on foreign policy. For instance, check out this Michelle Bachmann attack on Obama just yesterday at a fundraiser in NC: “Barack Obama has laid the table for an Arab Spring by demonstrating weakness from the United States of America. The No. 1 duty of the president is to be the commander-in-chief. After the bin Laden and al-Awlaki killings, does that quote even resonate with a majority of Republicans?

*** Christie buzz continues: Back to the GOP presidential race, the Christie buzz continues. Here's the Newark Star Ledger: “Gov. Chris Christie is seriously rethinking his months of denials and may launch a campaign for the White House after all, a source close to the governor said tonight.” The New York Post adds, “After months of hedging, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is giving serious thought to jumping into the ring for a GOP presidential run -- and could make his decision next week.” .But Politico notes the challenge for Christie if he jumps in at this relatively late date. “With the initial primary and caucus states poised to move up their contests to January, an October announcement means that Christie would immediately confront two questions of some urgency: where would he compete and how would he get on the ballot in an array of states coming in rapid succession.”

*** Calendar chaos? Today, we’re supposed to get the official word if Florida is moving up its primary to Jan. 31, which would force Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina to leapfrog into January as well. While Florida has leaned heavily into hinting they’ll go Jan. 31, don’t be surprised if some cooler heads prevail in Florida. There are plenty of Florida Republicans who believe they’ve already established the state as a BIG deal in the primary season, and holding it on Feb. 14, say, instead of Jan. 31, will still guarantee it’s a BIG deal. Bottom line: Jan. 31 is not YET set in stone. But we’ll know soon enough.

*** Perry to hit Romney in speech: At 10:15 am ET, Perry is delivering what his campaign is billing as a policy speech in Georgia. But according to excerpts, NBC’s Carrie Dann reports, the address appears to be an attack on Romney. “As Republican voters decide who is best suited to lead this country in a new direction by stopping the spending spree and scrapping Obamacare … I am confident they will choose a nominee who has governed on conservative principles,” Perry is expected to say. “Not one whose health-care policies paved the way for Obamacare, a path blazed with higher premium costs and thousands of lost jobs.” More Perry: “I have a lengthy record, and it has sometimes ruffled feathers. But sometimes you have to shake up the system.” And: “I knew when I got into this race I would have my hands full fighting President Obama’s big-government agenda; I just didn’t think it would be in the Republican primary.” Meanwhile, the Romney camp has released another Web video hitting Perry on immigration.

AP

Republican presidential candidate businessman Herman Cain

*** Cain’s missed opportunity: So you just won the Florida straw poll, and you’re NOT going to capitalize on it? NBC’s Alex Moe reported yesterday, per an adviser, that Herman Cain is not scheduled to be in Iowa again until Nov. 19. You read that correctly: Cain, fresh off of the best week of his campaign, right now has no plans to be in Iowa again until just before Thanksgiving. His spokeswoman says he’s promoting his book and won’t be back on the campaign trail until mid-October, although he will be speaking tomorrow to the National Federation of GOP Women tomorrow in Kansas City. Wow. That’s not the sign of a serious presidential candidate.

*** You also know you're not a serious presidential candidate if... :  Yesterday, Newt Gingrich criticized a reporter for asking a question about his upcoming fundraising report. “See, I knew you couldn’t resist,” Gingrich said. “I’m not going to answer you. I think you should, you should really go home and think about why you would even ask that today.” Um, the reason why the reporter asked that question is that Sept. 30 is the end of 3rd fundraising quarter. And, um, today is that day. Gingrich knows what he’s doing… and it’s not about THIS campaign.

*** No means no: The Democratic National Committee is going up with a Spanish-language TV ad in Denver and Las Vegas. Here’s the script (translated into English): “Republicans say no to Medicare… No to financial aid… No to help for the middle class. They always say no, but they never say why not… Obama is fighting on our side.”

*** Trumka speaks at Brookings: In remarks he'll deliver today at the Brookings Institution, AFL-CIO head Richard Trumka will say, according to excerpts: "We don’t have a debt crisis -- we have a jobs crisis. America isn’t broke. But America’s basic promise – an ever-rising, ever-widening prosperity – is being broken. Counting all the casualties of the job crisis, our real underemployment rate is over 16 percent. Earlier generations of economists would have called this a depression." Also: “We need to rethink some of the assumptions that have distorted the debates and decisions of the past three decades or more. Today I want to talk about three:  The cult of the corporation, the faith in free trade and the addiction to austerity.”

*** Friday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: The latest information on the killing of Al-Awlaki… Romney campaign media adviser Russ Schriefer… National Review’s Robert Costa on Gov. Christie’s pending decision… Skip Rutherford on this weekend’s Clinton-Gore ’92 reunion in Little Rock and what’s on the minds of attendees for 2012… Daily Beast contributor Zachary Karabell on how German Chancellor Merkel’s decisions in Europe could affect President Obama’s chances for reelection… And more 2012 with former Rep. Susan Molinari (R-NY), Democratic pollster Fred Yang and National Journal’s Major Garrett.

*** Friday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up:. NBC’s Andrea Mitchell will interview Pentagon Press Secretary George Little (on the al-Awlaki killing), the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, and Democratic strategist Bill Burton and GOP strategist David Winston. In addition, the show plans to simulcast Michael Smerconish’s interview with President Obama at 1:40 pm ET.

Countdown to WV GOV contest: 4 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 39 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 129 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up, and it’s likely that the contest takes place earlier.

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Keep track of the numbers posted here folks. Just remember that every single dollar that Perry, Romney, and Obama collect, is one more reason that they won't serve you in the next 4 years! That's right, you heard me. Those dollars are comming from big business and special interest groups. Hell, Romneys and Obamas donors last election cycle were a virtual who's who of where the bail out money was sent. Perry is cut from the same cloth.

If you are an American who cares about the future, and the well being of this nation, you need to look not at how much these politicians bring in, but instead, where it is coming from. In the end, the candidate who wins will serve those who funded their campaign. Romney, Perry, and Obama don't give a crap about you. They are far more interested in their big donors.

Ron Paul is the only candidate operating on individual donations. He is the only candidate that cares about the American Tax Payers. He is the only candidate who will serve the American Tax Payers.

Vote Ron Paul -Every vote for Ron Paul is a win for America.-

  • 1 vote
Reply#28 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 12:48 PM EDT

Who would invest in Rick's stock right now? No billionaire I don't know.

  • 1 vote
Reply#29 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 12:51 PM EDT

I hope Perry is the main guy on the presidential ticket. His last name is far better than Romney's to manipulate for left/ right banter- Perrynomics, Perrypain and so on. If he's elected I can make a MSNBC icon painting his face like the joker and spend copious amounts of time attacking him over every little things he does while arguing with other people on the forums.

Sure, I could do better things with my life, maybe even live life or make my community a better place, but it's better for my ego to just attack others as a anonymous user who can't be identified in real life or have to read web links of those with opposing viewpoints.

Sadly the only better candidate would have been Donald Trump. Besides the all of the toupe jokes, we could make even more name puns like Donald Chump.

*Sigh* I am really disappointed THE TRUMP did not continue to run. You can always return as a independent candidate!

    Reply#30 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 1:01 PM EDT

    Perhaps we could continue to use name puns for the democrats as well.

    Let's see: Barack "Osama" ?

    Joe "Biteme" Biden?

    Hillary "Clit"on?

    Or maybe we could just knock the democrats for their handling of our money with Solyndra? But hey, it was just a little more than 1/2 a Trillion dollars wasted by the president in one fell swoop.

    • 2 votes
    #30.1 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 1:32 PM EDT

    A drop in the bucket compared to how much Bush THREW away trying to save countries that didn't need saving and don't want to be saved. Those countries don't give two sh.ts about us and only want to kill us.

    Unnecessary wars!

    • 1 vote
    #30.2 - Sat Oct 1, 2011 9:01 PM EDT
    Reply

    If only we had these attributes of Dogs!

    Warning: If you read this, have a tissue handy!

    On that fall day in 1870 when country lawyer George Graham Vest stood up in judge Foster Wright's courtroom in Warrensburg, Mo., to defend a dog, few present could have imagined that what they were about to hear would become the most memorable tribute in modern history to man's best friend.
    But 1st, the series of events that brought George Graham Vest into the courtroom as counsel on behalf of a dog's good name.
    The canine in question was not an unknown mongrel. He was a foxhound named Old Drum, and around Johnson County he was held in high regard for his speed and dependability.
    Old Drum's proud owner was Charles Burden.
    One summer's morning in 1870, Old Drum was found dead from a bullet wound on or near the property of Leonidas Hornsby, who was one of Burden's neighbors. Investigating the untimely death of his hunter, the distressed Burden decided that circumstantial evidence clearly indicated Hornsby had killed the dog.
    Seeking some kind of redress for his loss, Burden went to the justice of Peace Court in Warrensburg to file suit. Informed that $150 was the maximum amount for which he could sue in this kind of case, Burden immediately filed against Hornsby for that sum.
    The case of Burden v. Hornsby was tried, and after a verdict was given for Hornsby, it was appealed, and then appealed again, until it reached the State Circuit Court for final judgment.
    On the day of the last trial—a jury trial—Judge Wright presided. Considering that the issue was the value of one foxhound, a formidable array of legal talent had been assembled. Appearing upon behalf of the defendant, Hornsby, were attorneys who would one day become national figures. One was Francis Cockrell, who would later be elected to the U.S. Senate from Missouri, and the other was Thomas Crittenden, who would later become governor of Missouri. Appearing on behalf of Charles Burden and the deceased Old Drum was Col. Wells Blodgett, a well-known local attorney.
    As the court convened, Colonel Blodgett felt the odds were against his client and his client's, dog. The opposition had more manpower. The opposing lawyers had bigger reputations than his own. Even worse, Cockrell and Crittenden knew every member of the jury personally. The opposition exuded confidence.
    Then, quite by accident, Colonel Blodgett learned that the only attorney in the area equal to the opposition in forensic skill happened to be in the courthouse that very afternoon. This was George Graham Vest, 'a one time senator in the Confederacy who, 8 years hence, would be elected to the U.S. Senate from Missouri and serve in the Senate as one of its leading debaters from 1879 to 1903. Vest, who practiced in nearby Sedalia, happened to be visiting the courthouse on another legal matter. Colonel Blodgett went to Vest at once and implored him to come aboard as special counsel. Apparently because the elements in the case appealed to him, or perhaps because he was a dog fancier, Vest consented to assist in the case.
    Judge Wright had a crowded calendar, and he did not get to Burden v. Hornsby until late in the afternoon. Determined to get the case to the jury that very day, judge Wright recessed the court for supper, and announced that the pleading would begin in the evening.
    That night, when the court was called to order, the kerosene lamps revealed a gallery thick with people. Not an empty seat could be found. The word had gone out that George Graham Vest had joined Colonel Blodgett against Cockrell and Crittenden, and a real donnybrook was in the offing.
    Judge Wright's gavel rapped, and Burden v. Hornsby, with the ghost of Old Drum in the wings, was under way.
    Colonel Blodgett spoke 1st. No record exists of the effectiveness of his appeal to the jury.
    Then it was the turn of the defendant's lawyers. Thomas Crittenden addressed the jury, followed by Francis Cockrell. Both spoke flippantly of the monetary worth of Burden's property loss, and they said "it was ridiculous to make so much ado about a dog of small value."
    Confidently, they concluded their pleas, not realizing that they had given George Graham Vest exactly the opening he wanted.
    Vest was on his feet for the final argument. The courtroom was hushed as he fixed his attention on the jurors. He was not interested in the evidence previously presented. He was not interested in the legalisms surrounding a $150 property loss. He was interested in only one thing. A man's beloved pet and companion, a dog, had been maligned.
    Vest began to speak, addressing himself only to the subject of dogs and to all the Old Drums in history.
    Even years after, when he had become governor of Missouri, Critt unselfish friend that man can enden could not forget Vest's speech. Remembering it, he said:
    I have often heard him, but never had I heard from his lips, nor from the lips of any other man, so graceful, so impetuous and so eloquent a speech as this before the jury in that dog case. He seemed to recall from history all the instances where dogs had displayed intelligence and fidelity to man. He quoted more lines of history and poetry about dogs than I had supposed had been written. He capped the monument he had erected by quoting from the Bible about the dog which soothed the sores of the beggar Lazarus as he sat at the rich man's gate, and by giving Motley's graphic description of how the fidelity of a dog kept William of Orange from falling into the hands of the Duke of Alva.
    "It was as perfect a piece of oratory as was ever heard from pulpit or bar. Court, jury, lawyers, and audience were entranced. I looked at the jury and saw all were in tears. The foreman wept like one who had just lost his dearest friend. The victory for the other side was complete. I said to Cockrell that we were defeated; that the dog, though dead, had won, and that we had better get out of the courthouse with our client or we would be hanged."
    When Vest had finished, the jury was so mesmerized that it returned a unanimous judgment of $550 in damages instead of $150 for Charles Burden-actually, for Old Drum. When Judge Wright collected his wits, he reduced the judgment to the Court's legal limit of $150.
    While no record was kept of the last half of George Graham Vest's tribute to a dog, the 1st portion has fortunately been preserved. It was this speech that originated the saying, "A man's best friend is his dog."
    George Graham Vest speaking "Gentlemen of the jury, the best friend a man has in this world may turn against him and become his enemy. His son or daughter whom he has reared with loving care may prove ungrateful. Those who are nearest and dearest to us-those whom we trust with our happiness and good name-may become traitors in their faith. The money that a man has he may lose. It flies away from him, perhaps when he needs it most. A man's reputation may be sacrificed in a moment of ill-considered action. The people who are prone to fall on their knees to do us honor when success is with us may be the 1st to throw the stone of malice when failure settles its cloud upon our heads. The one absolute, unselfish friend that man can have in this selfish world-the one that never proves ungrateful or treacherous-is his dog."
    "Gentlemen of the jury, a man's dog stands by him in prosperity and poverty, in health and sickness. He will sleep on the cold ground, where the wintry winds blow, and the snow drives fiercely, If only he can be near his master's side. He will kiss the hand that has no food to offer; he will lick the wounds and sores that come in encounter with the roughness of the world. He guards the sleep of his pauper master as if he were a prince. When all other friends desert, he remains. When riches take wings and reputation falls to pieces, he is as constant in his love as the sun In its journey through the heavens."
    "If fortune drives the master forth an outcast in the world, friendless and homeless, the faithful dog asks no higher privilege than that of accompanying him to guard against danger, to fight against his enemies. And when the last scene of all comes, and death takes the master in its embrace, and his body is laid away in the cold ground, no matter if all other friends pursue their way, there by his graveside will the noble dog be found, his head between his paws, his eyes sad but open in alert watchfulness, faithful and true even to death."

    • 1 vote
    Reply#31 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 1:28 PM EDT
      #31.1 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 1:39 PM EDT
      Reply

      The average American would have confidence in the economy and companies would not be so jittery about hiring if the Republican lead House would actually do its job and pass economic legislation. My Lord I would be happy if they at least came up with a legitimate/significant idea other than tax cuts and deregulation (they must have forgot about the housing market). The Republican leadership of this Congress have made not one viable proposal for economic legislation and have allied themselves with that un-American extremist group called the Tea party that booed a soldier in Iraq defending the very people that were booking him. They chanted "Let him die" as if they were in the Arena in Rome. The most reveling part of that debate was the GOP candidates lack of leadership or was it cowardice to stand up and defend the person they want to be Commander in Chief of. Actions or lack of actions speak louder than words and that told me more about them than anything they have said or will say.

        Reply#32 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 3:17 PM EDT

        Tea Baggers get out your checkbooks,Perry needs your help.The rest of the republican party has already figured his flip floppin a$$ out.

          Reply#33 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 3:40 PM EDT

          Ever wonder what the real purpose of the Tea Party is?

          • 1 vote
          Reply#34 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:33 PM EDT

          I say PERRY AND CAIN.

            Reply#35 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:05 PM EDT

            With either Perry or Romney AMERICA WILL BE TOTALLY SCREWED!!! They both will declare MARTIAL LAW once Wall Street finally collapses for good!!! Say Bye Bye to your constitutional rights!! The sad thing is there are just way too many SHEEPLE who still don't get it. They will be the Johnny's Come Lately....so sad

            • 1 vote
            Reply#36 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:46 PM EDT

            @David Walker 1.6:

            Thank you for a wonderful and intelligent comment. As President Obama said: It's about the MATH! Also, thank you very much for the link to that beautiful video about the boat rescue on 911. I had never heard about these brave boat people (rescuers and those rescuded). Everyone, especially Americans, should be aware of this inspiring story

            @Houston #1.76:

            You are correct about it wasn't President Obama's suppoters who labeled him "The One" and the "Messiah". It was the right wing especially that big hot mess, Limbaugh. They think they are being clever, but they are really showing their ignorance and disrespect by being blasphemous.

            @HunterfromWestVirginia #1.73:

            It is good to see that you are beginning to think for yourself, and are possibly disregarding some of the right wing talking points/lies. President Obama is as much his own man as the President of the USA can be. I don't know where the meme came from that this man is "weak". You DON'T get to be where he is from where he came from by being a "weak" person (Forget the Affirmative Action lies. He would have made with or without it. It only gets some people in the door, but after that they on they are own their own) Think about it, Hunter, a mixed race young person born to a single mother in the turbulent 60s who was abandoned by her husband with no financial/emotional help. It is by the Grace of God that he is where he is. Also, the president was raised by his maternal grandfather, Stanley Dunham, who told young Barack about his exploits overseas during WWII. This made a profound impact on the president as a boy. You can tell this when you hear him talk about it and read about it in his books.

            • 2 votes
            Reply#37 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:19 PM EDT

            TVWoman,

            No, you have it all wrong. Obama is the "chosen one" the messiah, our Dear Leader. He is the personification of the SECOND COMING.

            Hail Obama. Every time he speaks, it is like golden words of divine truth, justice, and the American way.

            All hail Obama.

            • 1 vote
            #37.1 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:47 PM EDT

            Congratulations tnwoman, you struck a nerve. You can always tell that when the Conservatives start talking about the "messiah." It's a dog whistle term designed to sound quirky and sarcastic to most of us while sending a powerful message to the Evangelical Fundamentalist component of the Republican base. Desperation among Conservatives is often accompanied by these appeals to fear in the hearts of the Religious Right.

            Ever notice that Conservatives are the ONLY ONES ever to use the terms "chosen one" or "messiah"? Moderates and Liberals realize that President Obama is just a man...a very smart and capable man but right sometimes, wrong at other times, or sometimes we just have a difference of opinion. If you think that's hyperbole on my part think again. The internet is loaded with sites like this one; http://o.bamapost.com/

            • 2 votes
            #37.2 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:58 PM EDT
            Reply

            Those children in New York protesting capitalism?? They are just kids letting their hair down. Great experience for them. Now when they enter the work force and have to try and pay bills and raise a family, the cold hard slap in the face of economic reality will bring them full circle. Great learning oppurtunity. Bless them all.

            • 1 vote
            Reply#38 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:41 PM EDT

            Children? Over 700 airline pilots have participated in the protests, the overwhelming majority of them military veterans. http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2011/09/29/union-airline-pilots-occupy-wall-street/

            Average Americans are sick of being robbed by the banksters and are starting to take matters into their own hands because Republicans have the banksters' backs.

            • 1 vote
            #38.1 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:52 PM EDT
            Reply

            The one redeeming thing about these politicians receiving all this campaign donation money...

            It will get spent in the US.

            • 1 vote
            Reply#39 - Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:57 PM EDT

            Ever wonder how much campaign money Obama and Moochelle Antoinette are going to pocket so they can continue the lavish vacations after they are booted out of our white House??

              Reply#40 - Sat Oct 1, 2011 8:21 AM EDT

              I gave up on Perry, the debate revealed he was wasting Texan's money on educating illegals. I am sorry but he is no better than Obama in this regard. I am supporting Romney/McCain now and Perry can continue to waste his state's money but America does not need him in charge of making illegal immigration policy for the country.

                Reply#41 - Sat Oct 1, 2011 8:37 PM EDT
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