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Subscribe to RSSORLANDO, FL -- When presidential hopeful Herman Cain addressed a roomful of Republicans in Brandon, FL on Tuesday, he knew he could only hope for a handful to vote for him in the state’s straw poll this weekend.
The reason why had little to do with his message or candidacy -- and more to do with the structure of the Florida Straw Poll. Unlike last summer’s highly watched Ames Straw Poll that is open to all Iowa voters, the ballots that will be counted in the Florida Straw Poll on Saturday will be cast from a selected group of 3,500 delegates from around the state.
It’s why, in Cain’s four campaign stops around the state this week, retail politicking might not have much payoff in the Sunshine State’s straw poll. Of the nearly 50 people who came out to hear the former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, only a few were delegates who will be eligible to vote.
But it is that structure that has Florida Republicans officials touting their state’s poll as more than just a chance for candidates to gain or lose some momentum. If history holds true, the winner of Saturday’s contest will be the candidate who also wins the primary.
“Iowa is a test of the organizational strength. Iowa basically is a paid straw poll,” said Blaise Ingoglia, co-chair of Presidency 5, the organization responsible with putting on the straw poll. “This is actually more of a true representation of how the voters are going to vote in Florida.”
The three straw polls held before this in Florida have all picked the eventual primary winner. Ronald Reagan was the first winner in 1979, followed by George H.W. Bush in 1987 and then Bob Dole in 1995. (No straw polls were held in 2000 or 2007 -- largely due to the candidates not wanting to participate in the poll that would require them to shift time and resources to the large and expensive state of Florida.)
This year, with today's Faith and Freedom Coalition Rally, tonight's FOX-Google debate, and Friday's Florida CPAC all taking place before the delegates cast their ballots, it will at least seem like Republicans are campaigning hard to win voters in the straw poll. Romney and Bachmann have both spent time campaigning in the state recently. And though he knew he could not win the vote of everyone he spoke to, Cain focused his efforts this week on speaking at gatherings of local Florida Republican organizations, knowing delegates were likely in the crowd.
But for Saturday's straw poll, no candidate has put on the line what Pawlenty or Bachmann did in Ames, and many have downplayed the significance of Saturday's event. Shortly after Bachmann's win in Ames, campaign spokeswoman Alice Stewart said they would not "dedicate the resources" to participate in Florida. Jon Huntsman, whose campaign headquarters are in Orlando and who originally said he would participate in the straw poll, has since called it "diminished."
Still, all the candidates names will be on the ballot, so it might be a bit unclear to voters exactly who is and is not participating. The reason why the Florida Straw Poll has been an accurate predictor of the eventual primary winner has a lot to do with the selection of the 3,500 delegates. They are some of the most passionate Republicans in the state, chosen from each of the 67 counties. To become a delegate you must have applied earlier in the year, been chosen by a lottery, and pay $175 –- which accounts for not just the opportunity to vote, but the ability to attend an array of Republican events that began today.
That’s why candidates aren’t blazing through the state this week promising free bus rides to the polls and country music concerts like some did in Iowa.
“One of the really good things is that because of delegates, you get a really broad brush of the electorate,” said Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of Southern Florida.
So why did some Floridians pay to spend three days listening to Republican candidates?
“This is a moment of serving your country and trying to pick the next president,” said Stanley Gloster, a delegate selected from Hillsborough County, where Tampa is located. “Florida will dictate who is going to be the next president.”
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Thanks for tearing off the scab with that friendly PSA!
Who will ever forget how FL & the SCOTUS dictated the next President in 2000
PS: You mean Santorum won't get the chance to pass out some of that special jam of his?
Feisty Redhead Roselle, IL
Cain ain't able.
I love!!! Very clever Feisty. LoL.
It was my favorite mini-series of all time. (Kane & Abel) Peter Strauss and Sam O'Neil. It blew me away when I first watched it.
The Florida ads will read "Vote Republican No more Medicare". "Vote Republican No more Social Security". And then the end will come . . . I mean the end of the Republican's bid for carrying Florida in the general. What did you think I meant?
Feisty, I wonder if Florida's straw poll will have hanging chads and butterfly ballots and screw up the final count...
Have not seen any of the recent debates. I got my popcorn and a nice glass of wine, ready for tonight's show!
I think I'm gonna sit this one out!
With Fox News doing the moderating you're guaranteed nothing but a bunch of wiffle-ball questions! lol
I've had my fill of the not ready for prime time players for now... ;o)
Do enjoy the popcorn & wine & keep me posted will ya?
Umm, the candidates buy their votes in the Ames poll, and in FL it is restricted to a select few. Right-wing "democracy" at it's best.
And FAUX Noise moderating a Teapublican debate, that's like allowing priests to operate a day care center, oh wait no, that's like stage mothers at a beauty pageant for toddlers, oh wait no, that's like pro wrestling is real, oh wait no, oh hell, you know what I mean.
Not another Florida 2000, for heavenssake.
It drove Al Gore completely mad.
Well...
Madder, anyway.
Hey, First Readers-
Al Sharpton is interviewing Barry Scheck!
Remember Barry?
He helped a man who slaughtered two human beings (as though they were hogs) escape justice.
Oddly...
I think Reverend Al is going to want to discuss "justice" with him.
Please...
Bring Cenk back.
Perry is pouring on the Southern drawl again, and pulling ahead of Romney, then Romney attacks Perry on Social Security and gains, then Perry's Southern drawl is even stronger and he pulls ahead again...
I want Cenk back as well!
@$*##@ it! Ffeisyt go to go first again.
(mmmm......jams and jellies. Hey Smiffer- got toast?)
Oh, so that's who it is, eh?
I got it now - you all ascribe rock star/would walk over coals for - status to the first poster.
I always wondered why it was so important to you all.
Does this mean Amy will draw a picture of Feisty on her Trapper Keeper, you know next to the one of Obama?
So it'll be Florida, eh? Let's see - at present Obama sits at just 39%, and it's almost certain that Rubio will be the VP nominee.
Huh. Poor Obama, just can't seem to catch a break these days.
Spanky-
So it'll be Florida, eh? Let's see - at present Obama sits at just 39%, and it's almost certain that Rubio will be the VP nominee.
Huh. Poor Obama, just can't seem to catch a break these days.
Ummm, Spanky
This thread is not about the President.
"I got it now - you all ascribe rock star/would walk over coals for - status to the first poster.
I always wondered why it was so important to you all."
You didn't know? Really?? It's all fixed.
That's why we all praise eachother when it happens- so no one figures out it's, well....... fixed.
BTW - It's not about the 2000 election or Feisty's scabs, either.
Umm Buzz - if you're going to put me on a pedestal will you at least spell Feisty right next time? lol
Rubio / Biden Debates next Fall.
I just can't wait.
Ha!
White Collar!
I LOVE it!
I would pay to watch that debate.
More Mainstream Propaganda from the churn.
Ron Paul has won every single poll on the internet and is again ignored in the mainstream article.
Ron Paul is the only other candidate polling in the double digits nationally consistently coming in with a strong third place finish.
He is also the only candidate of the top three funded by regular voters without corpotate and special interst backing.
Last nights debate was yet another "in your face" exorcize in perception management to the dumbed down sheep who refuse to see how their minds are being manipulated. Ron Paul was pretty much ignored and avoided for the most part when it came to the number of questions and answers he was allowed to address.
Agreed
If Rubio gets on board, that's a win, win.
Sure - If you like the idea of a theocracy.
I see that as insane.
thetotas
If Rubio gets on board, that's a win, win.
Isn't Rubio a Communist or from a Communist country?
Has anyone seen his birth certificate? ;o)
Feisty Redhead Roselle, IL
Has anyone seen his birth certificate? ;o)
GF, you know how those tea-baggers lie.
I bet it's a fake.
Maybe some liberal should run this ad.
FYI Bev,
1. Florida, where Marco was born, isn't a communist country.
2. A conservative, as opposed to a liberal / progressive / obama, is the farthest thing from a communist.
All them Cubans look alike to Bev.
I am assuming she knows that Florida is part of the US of A.
I think Marco should provides us a copy of birth certificate, he might be from Cuba?
I agree...
Marco could be a inner tube baby himself... lol
bet rubio would present it faster than obama did, along with his school transcripts
Simple...no "Fried Butter".
Ha, good answer!
Hey Mark -- you never did answer which you preferred?
The fried butter or the fried kool-aide?
Inquiring minds ya know... ;o)
Feisty, darlin'...
You're soooo transparent.
Mark will never respect you if you keep doing that...assuming he respects you now.
Especially if you keep trashing his boss, the NBC News Political Director and NBC News White House correspondent.
Settle down, girl.
There's such a thing as fried kool aid? I don't get off the farm enough.
Well this straw poll will be as corrupt as Florida usually is. As for Rubio he can go back to his taco stand.
Do Cubans even like tacos?
MMMM tacos. I loves me some tacos - 5 rolled with Guacamole.
Guacamole, so good!
September, and the avocados are ready to drop.
[September, and the avocados are ready to drop.]
So are Spanky's gonads....
You mean he has SOME?
From the sound of him, his Mrs. Skanky has been wearing them for earrings...
Thanks for that visual right before dinner... lol
Avocados are always delicious.
Gonads don't compare.
Bi any stretch if the ingratiation.
Hey -- The birth certificate is a fair question to ask in regard to hypocrisy. But come on, no racist remarks, please.
Hm active Republican voters huh? There are no voters more active than Ron Paul supporters. Maybe he will take the Florida Straw Poll... even with the past strong indicator that its been I'm sure the media will manage to swipe that under the rug as well if Paul takes it.