Perry, Romney running neck-and-neck in SC

By NBC's Ali Weinberg 

COLUMBIA, SC -- Rick Perry and Mitt Romney are running neck-and-neck among Republicans who are planning to vote in next year's South Carolina primary, according to a new Winthrop University poll released today.

Perry gets 31% and Romney 27% -- within the poll’s margin of error.

Poll director Scott Huffmon said the results suggest that Perry has been making strong inroads (especially with Tea Party supporters) since getting into the race in mid-August, and that Romney’s support in the state extends beyond his initial name-recognition strength.  

“Rick Perry has a lot of attention down here. I think Mitt Romney has a little more support than people are giving him credit for,” said Huffmon, a political science professor at Winthrop. “Both should be looking at [these numbers] as a way of trying to tweak their strategy and grow their base.” 

Romney has been far less present in South Carolina than Perry, whose wife Anita will be here tomorrow presiding over the Perry headquarters’ ribbon-cutting ceremony.

While Huffmon advised against overstating the “bandwagon effect,” he noted that South Carolinians do tend to coalesce around the nationally anointed candidate, given that it has voted for every Republican nominee in the primary since Ronald Reagan in 1980.

“In general, things that are liked by conservatives in New Mexico or in Wyoming are the same kinds of things that are liked by conservatives in South Carolina,” he said.

The Winthrop poll showed no other GOP candidates with double-digit support, with “Not Sure” being the next-highest choice at 11% in the trial heat. Businessman Herman Cain received 8% (a six-point jump since the last Winthrop poll in April) and Sarah Palin got 6%.

Neither the Perry nor the Romney campaign would comment on the poll’s results.

Among the rest: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich got 5%; Rep. Ron Paul 4%; Rep. Michele Bachmann 3% (about where she was in April); and both former Sen. Rick Santorum and former Gov. Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Given the deflation of some candidates who might siphon off Perry support -- especially Bachmann -- Huffmon suggested the Romney camp would be wise to recalculate its “wait and see” strategy in the Palmetto State.

“I think Romney was sitting back, hoping that Tea Party supporters would tear each other apart in the Perry vs. Bachmann vs. Palin vs. Cain camps. But this may be a sign that he may need to wade in and take some of the air out of Perry’s balloon.”

The poll also found that more primary voters would make their selection based on ideology rather than electability. When asked whether it was more important to pick a nominee who can beat President Obama in 2012 or one who shares the voter’s beliefs, 60% said “match beliefs” while 33% said “beat Obama.”

Huffmon said those percentages should not be surprising, given that most Republican primary voters assume that Obama will be defeated regardless of the nominee.

The poll also tested GOP support for South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who holds a coveted primary endorsement. Her approval rating among Republicans is 69%, with 18% disapproving.

Regarding South Carolina Republicans’ views on President Obama, a majority -- 74% -- said the term “socialist” described him well.

Huffmon said that demonstrated more that the language of “conservative elites” like pundits and radio hosts were trickling down to everyday Republicans, rather than voters’ beliefs that Obama fits the textbook definition of a socialist. 

Moreover, 30% of Republicans in the poll also incorrectly said they believed Obama belonged to the Muslim faith. And 36% said they thought Obama was probably or definitely born in another country. Yet that percentage decreased since the last Winthrop poll in April, taken before President Obama released his “long-form” birth certificate.

The Winthrop University poll was conducted from September 11-18 and surveyed 1,552 registered voters from South Carolina. For the majority of the questions, which were asked only of Republicans and independents who lean Republican, the results came from 596 such voters and the margin of error was +/- 4.01%. For those questions asked only of those who “definitely” plan to vote in the 2012 primary, the margin of error was +/- 4.57%.

Discuss this post

I'm sure once 1 of'em feeds GoV. Nikki Haley a Lie on the other 1, that 1 will take a comfortable lead among "The Bring The Rapture on Now Crowd in South Carolina"!

We all know by now, that GOV Haley will Say Anything Anyone tells her!

You Betcha!

  • 3 votes
Reply#1 - Tue Sep 20, 2011 5:37 PM EDT

South Carolina -- So it's a race to the bottom? Maybe Nikki Haley will tell those little girls to man-up - Ha!

  • 1 vote
#1.1 - Tue Sep 20, 2011 6:25 PM EDT

good one, true!

  • 1 vote
#1.2 - Tue Sep 20, 2011 10:23 PM EDT
Reply

These two are "front runners" because the press refuses to talk about anyone else. Neither is remotely acceptable as the Republican candidate.

  • 1 vote
Reply#2 - Tue Sep 20, 2011 6:06 PM EDT

I agree with Donald Berrian. The press is talking almost as though they have been bought and paid for by the money behind Perry and Romney. The reality is sad but true, the Press is bought and paid for and so we no longer have true journalism in this country, but political hacks who say what they are told to say and how to say it. Donald posted: Neither is remotely acceptable as the Republican candidate. I agree with his assessment except that most people will only hear about these two idiots for the next several months, thanks to the media who will try to convince the public that one of these idiots should be the Republican candidate. The problem is, the American public has been deceived into thinking that we have a "free press" when in reality, we do not. I think Herman Cain would be a far better choice than either Perry or Mitt, and Ron Paul would be an even better choice, yet we hear almost zero from the media about these two men.

  • 1 vote
#2.1 - Wed Sep 21, 2011 12:02 AM EDT
Reply

Perry and Romney running neck to neck sounds like a chicken race. You know when they run around squawking and making sure the pecking order is in place.

With the republicans you know its alway the rich first and the people are the beat up chick in the corner fighting for food.

  • 1 vote
Reply#3 - Tue Sep 20, 2011 6:16 PM EDT

HELLO HELLO ANYBODY OUT THERE

HELLO HELLO did somebody say some thing

HELLO HELLO just the wind

MAKE THAT A LOT OF HOT AIR

name calling , belittling , fault finding ,

I TOOK THIS QUESTION TO MY GRAND KIDS

All in grade school ,

you have two groups of people

the Group on the left , they are calling the group on the right all kinds of dirty names

The group on the right are ignoring these name callers , and playing a game

WHICH GROUP would you want to be a part of

THE UNANIMOUS RESPONSE WAS THE GROUP ON THE RIGHT

the voice of the children

    Reply#4 - Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:19 AM EDT

    I'm guessing you used small words when you described:

    socialist, muslim, anti american, anti israel, reverend wright, teleprompter, tar baby, divider, marxist, mao, czar monger, job killer, baby killer, nazi, fascist, d-bag, race baiter,...

    In fact, I'm sure there was NO bias whatsoever in your interpretation of events. Get real.

    • 1 vote
    #4.1 - Wed Sep 21, 2011 10:30 AM EDT
    Reply

    Rick Perry is acting like he has already won the primaries and running this new campaign video. The real Zero's are the masses running for the Republican primary.Perry is trying too hard to our run his competition and will soon crash and burn! Every cookie cutter Republican primary runner is just like the other. Perry, Romney, Bachmann and Gingrich are out to shut down the progress made by president Obama. With no real experience and knowledge or schooling, he continues to flounder as gullible people say he's the best qualified to be president. Perry graduated with a 2.22 GPA in Animal Science and was a cheer leader, while President Obama graduated from Columbia University and Harvard Law School, was president of the The Harvard Law Review, graduated with honors, with specialization in international relations! I agree the government should get out of our lives. Government should not mandate Sonograms for women! Government should not mandate HPV vaccines! This current crop wants to shut down our Social programs: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and FEMA! The president has shown he is a leader and is not scared to execute an order. Example: killing of Osama Bin Ladin, moving out Moammar Khaddafy, and Atiyah abd al-Rahman is dead! There are at least four or five more top leaders dead at the insistence of our president! President Obama has been cutting off the head of the snake!

    • 3 votes
    Reply#6 - Wed Sep 21, 2011 11:09 AM EDT
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