First Thoughts: Obama vs. the economy

Obama vs. the economy… New WaPo/ABC poll finds Obama trailing Romney among registered voters, 49%-46%... But is Romney’s boomlet temporary?... Warning: Beware of national polls this far out; Dole was beating Clinton at this point in the ’96 cycle… Obama on Afghanistan: “It’s time for the Afghans to take more responsibility”… Pelosi calls for investigation into Weiner, but not his immediate resignation… Pawlenty unveils his “Google Test” at 11:00 am ET speech at the University of Chicago, calling for elimination of governmental entities like the U.S. Postal Service and Amtrak… Newt Gingrich: Wanna get away?... And Romney’s in Detroit, while Santorum is in Iowa.

*** Obama vs. the economy: If you needed any more proof that President Obama is running more against the economy than the Republican field, just look at the latest Washington Post/ABC poll. Conducted during the worst economic news the White House has encountered since last summer, the poll shows Obama trailing Mitt Romney by three points among registered voters, 49%-46%, and tied among all respondents. The reason: Romney outperforms Obama with independents. More from the poll: “Overall, about six in 10 of those surveyed give Obama negative marks on the economy and the deficit. Significantly, nearly half strongly disapprove of his performance in these two crucial areas. Nearly two-thirds of political independents disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy, including — for the first time — a slim majority who do so strongly.”

*** Romney's short-term boomlet? That said, Obama leads all other potential GOP candidates in the poll (Palin, Gingrich, Huntsman, Pawlenty, and Bachmann). But is this as good as it gets for Romney, at least during this phase of the Republican race? Consider that he has carefully limited his exposure over the past few months, even admitting to CNN’s Piers Morgan that overexposure is his “greatest enemy.” (But being president or even the front-runner for the GOP nomination is the definition of being overexposed.) And outside of the jabs he received last week from Palin and Giuliani -- who might not even run in 2012 -- Romney hasn’t been attacked by top Republican rivals, like Pawlenty or Huntsman. Yet. Per the Washington Post/ABC poll, “The Massachusetts health-care plan enacted under Romney remains a potentially serious problem in the former governor’s bid. By nearly 2 to 1, Republicans oppose the plan, with strong detractors far outnumbering solid supporters.”

*** The White House can take comfort in this: In case you were wondering, back in March of 1995, Bob Dole was leading Bill Clinton, per a Los Angeles Times poll. And in June of 1995, a Newsweek survey found Dole leading Clinton, 49%-40%.

*** “It’s time for the Afghans to take more responsibility”: The Post/ABC poll also finds a majority (54%) believing that the war in Afghanistan isn’t worth fighting, although that percentage is down 10 points from March. And in his interview with Hearst yesterday, President Obama appeared to be leaning toward a steeper drawdown from Afghanistan, as yesterday’s New York Times foreshadowed. Said Obama, “By us killing Osama bin Laden, getting Al Qaeda back on its heels, stabilizing much of the country in Afghanistan so the Taliban can't take it over, it's now time for us to recognize that we've accomplished a big chunk of our mission and that it's time for the Afghans to take more responsibility." Read that again: The president said "we've accomplished a BIG CHUNK of our mission" (emphasis ours).

*** Sex(ting), Lies, and Videotape: From our vantage point, the biggest political result from Weiner-gate is that it distracted Democrats' message for an entire week. Instead of the GOP's Medicare plans, the Hill story of the week focused on Rep. Anthony Weiner's lies, followed by his never-ending, choked-up admission of sending lewd online photos and messages. Agree with his politics or not, John Boehner did his party -- and its overall message -- a favor by immediately pressuring the Chris Lees and Mark Souders to resign. Pelosi and team, by contrast? They allowed the Weiner story to linger, just like they did for Eric Massa (remember the Glenn Beck ordeal?) and Charlie Rangel (who twisted in the wind for months). Pelosi did call for an Ethics Committee investigation, but such an investigation has the potential only to pro-long the story. What happens if an investigation of Weiner, six months or a year from now, uncovers anything else? “We do not need an investigation to know he lied and acted inappropriately,” RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said in a statement. “We need a resignation.”

*** Rogue’s gallery: All that said, consider this: In the past year or two, five rogues in Congress have been exposed -- John Ensign, Eric Massa, Chris Lee, Mark Souder, and Anthony Weiner. That’s less than one percent of all members of the House and Senate, and that's not a bad ratio.  Then again, three of these are from New York state. What’s up, Empire State?

*** Pawlenty’s “Google Test”: At 11:00 am ET from the University of Chicago, Pawlenty delivers a speech on the economy and government. Per excerpts, he will propose cutting corporate taxes (“We should cut the business tax rate by more than half. I propose reducing the current rate from 35% to 15%”); creating just two individual tax rates (10% and 25%); and eliminating the U.S. Postal Service, Amtrak, and the government printing office (“We can start by applying what I call ‘The Google Test.’ If you can find a good or service on the Internet, then the federal government probably doesn’t need to be doing it”). Our question: Does Pawlenty realize that UPS and Fed Ex don’t deliver to some rural parts of the country? How do you ensure mail for those folks? The real issue with the Postal Service is Congress' inability to allow it to make smart business decisions (like raising postage to a realistic level of say one whole dollar?!?!? Or shutting down some post offices). Similarly, private companies -- unless they’re given a generous subsidy -- are unlikely to provide passenger-train service outside big cities on the East and West coasts.

*** Does the math add up? A Pawlenty spokesman emails First Read, “The Google Test highlights government programs and parts of government programs that are clearly duplicative of services now also provided by private sector.” And here’s another question: Does Pawlenty’s math add up when you cut individual tax rates, and still leave the popular home-mortgage and child-credit tax deductions? Budget experts, take out your calculators….

*** Wanna get away? Yesterday, we discovered that Newt Gingrich had taken Southwest Airlines' ad campaign ("Wanna get away?") to heart and has been on a Greek cruise over the past several days. All candidates go on vacations, but how many of them have gone on a cruise just weeks after announcing their presidential bid? Fair or not, Newt’s vacation only feeds the perception that he’s not all-in to win the GOP nomination, but instead simply wants ALL-IN on the debates and conversation to so he can stay relevant as an author and commentator.

*** On the 2012 trail: Elsewhere today, Romney is in Detroit, where Democrats will gleefully use the headline from his Nov. 18, 2008 New York Times op-ed (“Let Detroit Go Bankrupt) against him… Santorum, the day after announcing his presidential bid, is in Iowa… And Buddy Roemer is in Louisiana. 

Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 67 days
Countdown to NV-2 special election: 98 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 154 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 244 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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Obama vs. the economy

Arrogant fantasy meets reality.........

  • 2 votes
Reply#27 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:09 AM EDT

Re Wiener's wiener, think Newt Gingrich, David Vitter, Larry Craig, Mark Sanford, Gov. Arnold, John Ensign and his bagman Tom Coburn.

Nothing to see here; keep moving.

  • 2 votes
Reply#28 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:09 AM EDT

Teddy, spitzer, rangle etc both sides one exception no republican murders that I know off?

    #28.1 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:29 AM EDT
    Reply

    Dividing us by state, race, and income.

    Doubling debt in just 2 years

    9%+ unemployment.

    Citizens, its time we realized this mans intent was all of the above. Join us, and restore the Republic.

    • 3 votes
    Reply#29 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:10 AM EDT

    Do you even believe the faux propaganda you are repeating here?

    Our country has been divided by state/race/and income since it's birth einstein.

    Doubling debt, say what? Obama hasn't come close to "doubling the debt" but in fact, Ronnie Raygun whom you likely praise repeatedly everyday TRIPLED our debt.

    9% unemployment is tragic. Are you arguing that we should admonish the Republican/Tp candidates who have been screaming "HELL NO" and threatening to filibuster anything that would be helpful for the economy so they can focus on more Abortion laws, deregulation, and tax breaks for the top 2%?

    The only thing the right wants to restore is slavery for the other 98% of American citizens.

    • 1 vote
    #29.1 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 1:40 PM EDT

    Dear Sir, be advised, the citizenry are realizing that anyone who defends your President is either beholden to his purse, or mentally abnormal. should one be the former, remember well that not all loyalists were spared previously. should they be the latter, they cannot be held responsible for their opinions.

      #29.2 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 1:52 PM EDT

      I recognize the words in your post, but can hardly see a point in their arrangement. Are you implying that patriots who support their president are beholden to his purse, their own, or whose purse are you referencing? Are you saying that if they aren't only concerned about this aforementioned "purse" then they must be mentally abnormal, or in otherwords if they don't worship God-Money then they are crazy?

      Your further dialogue equating people who worship money as being "loyalists" who may not be spared (from what?) is going to become a negative issue for you once your faux cool-aid runs out and your "citizenry" realize the only trickle is from the Mega-corporations (is this your God-Money?) peeing on them and calling it rain.

      And to top it off, you make an argument that anyone who isn't worshipping God-Money or are in other words mentally deficient, are not responsible for their oppinions. Isn't that just you trying to create a defense for yourself when your ranting to support the Corporatocracy proves to have been a "mentally abnormal" philosophy that led to the demise of your country?

      The more I hear you nuts spreading the "message of the day" the more I think that Faux is bad for America, therefore the opposite of what Faux suggests, is good for America.

      Go Obama/Biden 2012!

      • 1 vote
      #29.3 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 2:41 PM EDT
      Reply

      “We can start by applying what I call ‘The Google Test.’ If you can find a good or service on the Internet, then the federal government probably doesn’t need to be doing it.”

      I can find all branches of our military using Google. Does that mean pawlenty thinks we should no longer have a military?

      • 4 votes
      Reply#30 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:10 AM EDT

      Likewise, if I google "President" there are many presidents of corporations. Pawlenty must be wanting the office of the president to be out of the Federal Government, and run by coporate interests only.

        #30.1 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 4:24 PM EDT

        I would HAVE to think this is a subtle dig at Santorum,...no?

        Invoking the Google Defense?

        hee hee, yes, I AM that immature.

          #30.2 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 4:32 PM EDT
          Reply

          I'm not a big Obama fan but the rightees on this blog and elsewhere simply are in denial over how we happen to be in this economic fix.

          Bush came in with a surplus. Two wars and a percription deal OFF BUDGET accounts for about 4 trillion dollars in deficits since then plus a lot of dead bodies. That's the real truth.

          The bailouts for the Financial system that contributed to this mess came from Bush through his guy Paulson so quit ragging on Obama for it. The Money loaned the auto industry by the Obama people has saved most of those jobs and we have the money back with interest.

          WARNING! FAUX NEWS WILL FRY YOUR BRAIN SO YOU CAN'T DO SIMPLE MATH.

          • 5 votes
          Reply#31 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:16 AM EDT

          pippo, do you mean math regarding the # of fox news viewers vs abc, cbs, or MSDNC? if so, then your caution is well understood.

            #31.1 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 1:57 PM EDT

            Mitch, I know more lazy libruls that watch Fox than anyone. Maybe they like to know what the Devil is saying so they recognize the sheeple who will be bleeting on the blogs.

            By the way Southpark has more viewers than Fox News, I gess that makes Southpark a more reliable source of information... well that actually is the case, nevermind.

              #31.2 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 3:03 PM EDT
              Reply

              obama voters, advisors, secretaries, csars are bailing in droves, his progressive agenda is becoming more and more exposed. obama is a failed union leader in chief, even trumpka is not going to support him, however acorn, seiu and the black panthers are circling the wagons.

                Reply#32 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:16 AM EDT

                x

                  Reply#33 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:17 AM EDT

                  Polls are for idiots...they prove nothing.

                  Representative Anthony Weiner; it's time to step down and take it like a man. Please don't make a mockery of the ethics committe process...you had your dream and have successfully blown any short-term political goals. Besides, radio and television hold many viable opportunities for a guy like you. Thank the lord that the press associated your name with a "gate". It's better for publicity.

                  • 1 vote
                  Reply#34 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:18 AM EDT

                  In Maryland, you are correct. But, it would take an anvil around his neck and a gorilla on his back before any democrat would even begin to feel any pressure to resign.

                  • 1 vote
                  Reply#35 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:18 AM EDT

                  chare...be fair and balanced; Clinton, "I did not inhale" or "I did not have sex". Ted Kennedy... gets away with murder, literally....Charlie Rangle...head of tax system oversight...conveniently forgets to pay taxes....so the same with Geithner...

                  come on, get real. This isn't about "partisan shenanigans"... so many of these two-faced, lying, "don't do-as-I-do but do as I say" scumbags" aren't worthy to be my freakin garbage man. I have more respect for those guys.

                  Stop with the "partisan crap." You are falling into the trap the two-party system has set up. "Divide and conquered." Been third-party libertarian since post Reagan. The fix is in.

                  • 1 vote
                  Reply#36 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:19 AM EDT

                  And the republicans will not do anything. That is some pretty warped thinking. Conservatives are trying to get this administration to stop spending money. If you want to call that not doing anything then that's fine. But, everytime I've tried I could not spend my way out of debt. 144 billion lost on the auto industry. 12 billion lost on the postal service. Billions to the banks & Wall Street with no over-sight. And Obama has now played more golf than any president in history. He's a nice enough guy but, does not have a clue what the heck he is doing. And by all appearances will never know.

                    Reply#37 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:20 AM EDT

                    Your anology of "spending your way out of debt" is misguided. The real relationship would be more like your children not being able to get a decent job after 2 years of college and your "borrowing" to get them another two years for a degree so they could in fact pay you back. So the argument from the right is really more like, no honey we still owe money on the first two years so we can't help the kid go to college and we may have to stop feeding them as well... they will have to work at Wal-Mart or McDonalds like the rest of the family.

                    The real issue I have with your statement however is the belief that there are any true fiscal "Conservatives" left in right-wing politics. Being "Conservative" is not just about cutting spending, and no true "Conservative" would ever suggest you cut Government spending in a down economy as a way to creat jobs (history shows reduced spending=less job creation). A true Conservative would acknowledge that you have to spend money to make money.

                    Even St. Ronnie Raygun knew he had to spend (tripled the national debt) to turn the economy around. And before you "conservatives" start whining about the democrat-controlled-congress, it was half democrat for 6 years, and fully for the last two, and EVERY year Raygun requested far more spending than was approved. Raygun also realized he had to *gasp* RAISE TAXES!

                    Faux is proof that it doesn't matter what you do it only matters what the media says you did.

                    • 1 vote
                    #37.1 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 2:05 PM EDT
                    Reply

                     This is nothing new; as long as Obama covers himself with people of Wall Street like Timothy Geithner, and Bill Daley, the president will continue to lose touch of the need for the American people. Of course, I don't see any Republicans that are not in the hands of Wall Street either. We are going to have to have someone that will separate government from the suppression of the Fed and the banking cartels in order to help the majority of Americans!

                    • 3 votes
                    Reply#38 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:20 AM EDT

                    tt904

                    Finally I read something that makes sense. This is why I'm not big on Obama but PULLLEEEZE will the rightees quit acting like Bush and his administration are not responsible for most of what hurts us.

                    • 2 votes
                    #38.1 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:26 AM EDT
                    Reply

                    Every time I read something written by Chuck Todd, I have to laugh. For a journalist, his bias for leftist politicians is so darn apparent. During the elections of 2008, I thought he worked for the Democratic party. MSNBC seems to have become an instrument of the left. Too bad.

                    • 2 votes
                    Reply#39 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:21 AM EDT

                    Tea Party must be in a tizzy. They hate Romney as much as they hate Obama and all their foaming at the mouth has gotten them is a Palin bus tour

                    • 2 votes
                    Reply#40 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:26 AM EDT

                    hey david, instead of attacking the Tea Party, how about defending what is becoming more and more obvious each day to the rest of us: everything is going according to your Presidents plan.

                    • 1 vote
                    #40.1 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:39 AM EDT
                    Reply

                    Image is everything. Since the Right likes to play swift boat and birther games, I say we hammer away and get the GOP permanently labeled as Medicare Killers. Pass it on to every Boomer you know and let the GOP spend all their time denying it

                    • 3 votes
                    Reply#42 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:30 AM EDT

                    The problem David is that most of us "boomers" are not as stupid as the empty mind liberals. We can see that this president is so far over his head it isn't funny. I guess the old saying is true "Those that can DO and those that can't TEACH". All these well educated idiots this president has put in place are useless

                    • 1 vote
                    #42.1 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:55 AM EDT

                    Your pointless post only proves that you:

                    A. Do not have an open mind

                    B. Do not have a firm grasp of the facts.

                    and

                    C. Are too old of a dog to realize you have been chitting where you sleep and your old tricks of blaming it on your neighbor aren't working anymore.

                      #42.2 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 2:14 PM EDT
                      Reply

                      Hey boehner, where are all those job's Bills??

                      Not a single job's Bill, yet, tye campaigned on jobs, jobs, jobs.. trickle-down economics, yabba dabba dooo!!

                      Hey, ya' think a poor economy, a stalled recovery, subverted recovery will drop Obama's poll numbers?

                      Wait until it sinks in that the corporate-owned and elitist-managed GOP has been working non-stop to make the recovery stall -- for political gain... Let that sink-in -- it's called TREASON, but, heck what's a little treason to GOPers?

                      The USA has turned into a disgusting mix of ignorance, religious fanatics, and zionist wall-street puppeteering the entire mess..

                      • 3 votes
                      Reply#43 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:30 AM EDT

                      You can't legislate jobs. Business' create jobs not the government.

                      • 2 votes
                      #43.1 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:44 AM EDT

                      Skup where do your get that crap. Government do create jobs just look it up and your will see or maybe your just don't get it.

                        #43.2 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 12:37 PM EDT
                        Reply

                        I do have respect for Romney but what would he do differently from President Obama? They both suck up to corporate America and will sell out the citizens in a heart beat. President Obama ran for office as a man of the people but instantly turned into a shill for the banksters, corporations and Wall Street. He has goofed in a monumental manner and I don't think he has the courage to mend his ways.

                        We got nothing to vote for. All the candidates are the same....bought and paid for.

                          Reply#44 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:31 AM EDT

                          I guess I am not all that shocked about Weiner's behavior. It is really a matter between he and his wife, a private and personal issue. I am not surprised he lied. He was embarrassed to be caught. They all lie at one time or another. His lie was about a personal matter. I am a conservative and this will shock everyone but I think they most all do stuff like this or worse. I am disappointed with both parties. I personally think its time to clean house on both sides and start fresh. Just my humble opinion.

                          • 1 vote
                          Reply#45 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:32 AM EDT

                          The most important part of that survey are the independent voters. Obama is not going to get their vote this time. He got it in the last election by lying to them and convincing them he was in middle. His actions since taking office have revealed him for what he is. A far left politician. When election time comes the Republicans are going to vote for the Republican candidate just like the Democrats are going to vote for Obama.

                          • 3 votes
                          Reply#46 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:32 AM EDT

                          They will not Repubilican when know they want to end Medicare, Medicade.

                          • 1 vote
                          #46.1 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 12:40 PM EDT
                          Reply

                          It's fun to read the hate filled rants of the lefties looking to blame anyone but themselves for the current state of affairs. Rep. Weiner is solely for the pickle he is in, not Breitbart. The economy is going in the tank again, but you progressives fail to accept that Obama's economic policies have made things worse. All you can do is blame Republicans or say the problem is that Obama hasn't printed, borrowed, and spent enough money. So lash out lefties, throw your little hissy fits, stick needles in your Sarah Palin dolls. Better yet, take a long hard look in the mirror.

                          • 1 vote
                          Reply#47 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:35 AM EDT

                          Obama is a fool, he has not done one good thing for this country, except when he flies out on air force one, ( and boy does he abuse that ). As far as Weiner, he should be arrested for sending porno over the internet, and who the hell does he think he is i am not going to resign, your right your fired, he is a pervert.

                            Reply#48 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:36 AM EDT

                            Obama is making a HUGE claim by saying the Taliban can no longer regain control in Afghanistan. What happens if they march into Kabul Viet Cong/ Saigon style and behead Karzai, making the entire ten year effort moot. Is he still going to claim mission accomplished. And the GOP is in no position to make political hay over our defeat. Hell they want to cut and run MORE than the Dems because it is now a poiltical issue. Ah yes the cut and runners have finally prevailed

                              Reply#49 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:37 AM EDT

                              Once again. THE REASON WE ARE IN THIS ECONOMIC MESS IS REPUBLICAN DELUSIONAL ECONOMIC POLICIES. Santorum is part of that probelm; plus, like most conservatards, he believes that homosexuality is a choice.

                              • 2 votes
                              Reply#50 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:39 AM EDT

                              wrong stubbleq

                              the reason is the community reinvestment act. i was in banking when it was enforced. were you? if not, you have no idea what you are talking about.

                              NONE.

                              • 1 vote
                              #50.1 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:46 AM EDT

                              Could you provide some references to the economic policies you are referring to. Bills introduced, dates passed into law, etc... Or were you just using the standard rhetoric.

                                #50.2 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:49 AM EDT
                                Reply

                                must give credit where due: the alternating scandals of weiner and edwards, and the timing of various aspects of each story releases vs bad economic news is simply brilliant.

                                its like watching a maestro. barry makes billy look like a boyscout.

                                • 1 vote
                                Reply#51 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:41 AM EDT

                                God Bless George Bush and our troops and their mision to bring peace and democracy to the poor down trodden and oppressed people of Iraq and Afghanistan. -----oh wait, screw all that, time to cut and run and get the hell out of raghead land. Reality FINALLY prevails, eh,you delusional twits

                                • 1 vote
                                Reply#52 - Tue Jun 7, 2011 10:44 AM EDT
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