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A new analysis by two political scientists shows how one vote on a big bill can affect a congressperson's chances of winning re-election.
In the analysis, Seth Masket of the University of Denver and Steve Greene of North Carolina State University looked specifically at how the health-care bill, stimulus, cap-and-trade, and TARP affected Democrats during the 2010 midterms.
After the election, they looked at how each Democratic member voted on these four issues. They coupled that data with who won re-election and who did not.
Before coming to any conclusions, they accounted for three different factors -- 1) how liberal or conservative a member's district is, 2) the member's voting patterns, and 3) the amount of money spent in the campaigns.
The result: "Democrats paid a substantial price for party unity in the 111th House of Representatives." Greene and Masket cite health care as the most costly vote to the party. Their analysis found supporters of the bill typically ran 6%-8% behind opponents in the election. And 13 members lost their seats because they voted 'yes' on health care.
TARP, by comparison, was found to have had a minor effect on the election. The stimulus was a little tougher to gauge, since a small group of Democrats voted against it. "Our results suggest that as much as it hurt some Democrats, it may have actually helped others," the political scientists wrote in their analysis.
Surprisingly, they found that cap-and-trade didn't have a big impact on whether a House member won or lost in 2010. "It is certainly possible that the cap-and-trade vote harmed some Democrats in some districts, but our evidence does not show any negative impact in the aggregate."
Masket and Greene breakdown their calculations further in a paper and explain how they reached their conclusions using regression analysis. A link is available on Masket's blog.
Masket and Greene presented their findings at the Midwest Political Science Association meeting in Chicago this past weekend.
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So it's a bad idea to pass a bill even though you don't don't know what it'll do?
Huh, now who could have foreseen that?
I guess Hope isn't always such a good strategy.
How dare the Democrats pass Romney-Care on a nationwide basis!
So John are you saying that because they were right then they are right now?
Does one have anything to do with the other?
You do understand that it ain't just the Tea Party that hates ObamaCare, right John?
Well that went to the wrong place.
But Da Noid - how many years did it take to implement Romney care?
Spanky-
So it's a bad idea to pass a bill even though you don't don't know what it'll do?
Huh, now who could have foreseen that?
I guess Hope isn't always such a good strategy.
Maybe Cantor could explain it?
Maybe Cantor could explain what Bev.
I mean are you now just randomly throwing out names?
Recall Pelosi said flat out she did not know what was in it. And that Bev is no way to run a business, a government or even a lemon aide stand.
Obama supporter and Democrat Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com has been saying this for a while now.
Of course the passage of landmark social reform without majority public support and with no bipartisan support whatsover hurt Democrats in the midterm elections last November...go figure.
Only at places like First Read would this be considered a revelation...
Or, an epiphany.
I've been watching an even newer epiphany at First Read regarding the upcoming trials of the 9/11 conspirators before military tribunals at the terrorist detention center at Guantanamo Bay.
It's a wonderment, isn't it?
Bag:
The last time you played that broken record, I pointed out that bipartisanship is no longer possible because the Republicans have become so radical that they view compromise as a dirty word. How can the Democrats compromise on health care reform with people who told lies about death panels and "pulling the plug on grandma"? You didn't answer that last time, so I doubt you will this time, either.
You were wrong the last time too, Houston.
Thanks for responding, though...
You're going to see some bipartisanship very, very soon, Houston.
You're clearly not going to like it, though.
Oh well...
' "Democrats paid a substantial price for party unity in the 111th House of Representatives." Greene and Masket cite health care as the most costly vote to the party.'
This is hardly news, since everybody already knew this - Obama convinced them that "the voters would see HCR as a 'good thing' - just pass it and you'll see" - in other words, they were expendable. The only reason 'Cap & Trade' didn't have an impact is because it never made it out of the Senate, and TARP was pretty much bipartisan.
Houston! " I pointed out that bipartisanship is no longer possible because the Republicans have become so radical that they view compromise as a dirty word"
I wonder where they learned that?
Oh yes, now I remember - From every initiative that Bush tried with Pelosi & Reid for his last 2 years.
Bob-1887910 "John B, Under LBJ, it was Republicans who were credited with passing bipartisan Civil Rights legislation, in fact more Republicans than Democrats voted for these bills."
Shush, we don't wants minorities to know that - it doesn't follow the Democratic Party line talking points.
Actually what you don't want minorities to notice is that the Republican Party has worked really hard to become an organization that's comfortable with bigots.
Pay no attention to the Dixiecrats that co-opted the Republican Party. Their first sign of willingness to let bigots override their former greatness,...
We can't have actual historical facts overriding the irrational wing of the 'modern' day republiclan party.
What killed the Democrats is they didn't place the public option in the HCB. Instead of getting real change, the people of the US got a crap bill with so much special interest in the bill the bill should be called SIcare. How many tax breaks were in the bill for mega-corporations?
When will Obamba pass the Mexicare bill? I'd like to know.
Baghdad Bob speaks.
Tell us more Birther stories Juven, the last one was really funny.
Democrats paid the price for LBJ's push to get the Civil Rights Act passed. Southerners abandoned the Democratic Party in droves, and the Republican Party worked hard to capitalize on that through decades of maneuvering starting with Nixon's Southern Strategy. After signing the bill President Johnson remarked "we've lost the South for at least a generation."
Does anyone besides Tea Partiers think pushing the Civil Rights Act was wrong.
Amazing how quickly they forget John...
Keep in mind LBJ didn't have crazy white people running around with tea bags stapled to their foreheads, screaming about 'death panels' and 'pulling the plug' on Granny 24/7!
Epiphany, anyone...?
Now where have I heard this before?
Wait...
Don't tell me...
John B,
Your point is illogical. Obamacare is not akin to Civil Rights. In fact, it is anti-civil rights, it gives power to the Government and takes away our freedoms.
Under LBJ, it was Republicans who were credited with passing bipartisan Civil Rights legislation, in fact more Republicans than Democrats voted for these bills.
Landmark major legislation traditiionally has been bi-partisan. Obama and his zealots decided they would ignore the opposition, refused to compromise and rammed this Obamacare turkey down our throats. As this article pointed out, it is still extremely unpopular!
Conservatives amaze me!
They can take good ideas, even the ones they thought of originally, twist them, misrepresent them, misquote them, turn them into negatives and totally trash them. Then they complain that nothing is getting done and blame everyone else.
Truly remarkable.
Interesting - should our country be led and governed based on the polls?
Obama campaign on bringing in a healthcare bill - if you didn't want one, you should have voted for McCain.
Is the healthcare bill the best? probably not, but what bill is ( really?)
@Bob-1887910 : Yes, most major bills are bipartisan, but even a blind person can see by now that if Obama is for something, EVERY Republican is against it. The Tea Party has made this environment even worse because if you vote with Obama, you'll be out of Congress the next time around.
There are very few bipartisan bills at all these days and please don't bring up the extending the Bush tax custs - that was an agreement to do nothing.
Bob - Tell me something.....are you against Medicare for seniors? I ask because in order for you to be consistent with your argument you would have to be against Medicare as well....which by the way really is a government run program unlike Health Care reform which is strictly private companies.
Pablo-FL...
For clarification's sake...
An agreement to do nothing is still an agreement.
I love bipartisanship, personally.
Sorry you don't, Pablo.
You're about to see a lot more of it on the budget, and then...on the long-term debt crisis.
Partisan ideologues can wait forever, Pablo.
The rest of us can't.
John B, Des Moines, IA "Democrats paid the price for LBJ's push to get the Civil Rights Act passed. Southerners abandoned the Democratic Party in droves, and the Republican Party worked hard to capitalize on that through decades of maneuvering starting with Nixon's Southern Strategy"
When (not if) the Republicans start manuevering with a "Hispanic Strategy", the Democrats may well regret their current short sighted 'open borders' strategy.
Good luck with that.
http://www.comovotan.com/2011/02/is-the-gop-getting-record-low-approval-ratings-among-latinos/
'when' the Republiclans come up with a hispanic strategy - I believe pigs will be flying. and unicorns will overrun the earth.
It's gonna' be REAL difficult to walk back some of the nonsense that has come out of the mouths of the Republican 'leadership' with regards to hispanics-immigration-minorities in general.
I welcome that debate. The footage I've been hoarding is fertile with ignorance and misinformation. I'm looking at you Jan Brewer, Sharon Angle, Michele Bachman, Virgil Peck, Steve King, John Kavanaugh, Lindsey Graham - the list is so long, it is almost easier to list those who haven't jumped on the 'blame the hispanics' band wagon.
At any rate,...as I've stated - Bring It On! I think we win that vote, hands down.
".. it gives power to the Government and takes away our freedoms."
Raise your hands: Who all lost freedoms because of health care reform? Your insurance carrier no longer availalbe to you? Can't get that hernia operation? What??
Oh, wait!! I get my insurance through a PRIVATE COMPANY now!! Oh, wait, that's how it was before...
Who all lost freedoms because of health care reform?
_________________________________________
How about people that get their insurance through HSA's with high deductible catastrophic insurance policies, that will now be forced to buy the ClunkerCare plan?? (That's if the SC doesn't do the right thing and find the individual mandate unconstitutional)
Can't think of any "freedoms" I lost, either - of course, it's not like my big old insurance company ever gave me that many "freedoms" to begin with. As I've posted at least twice before, about the only things I've seen change since my company switched to a revised plan in February (to replace the one no longer being offered) is that the co-pays for the services most important to me - Primary Care visits, prescription drugs and mammograms - all went DOWN this year for the first time in.....well.....ever. And my premiums only increased by a whopping two dollars a month. I figure to come out at least a couple hundred bucks ahead by the end of the year.
So if that's taking away my "freedoms", then by all means, take a few more!
@Joe in Albany -
Are you calling my healthcare plan ( via private insurer ) to be a ClunkerCare plan? for all the money I pay?
By the way, those very high plans are probably paid for by the States ( via agreement with the unions ). After WI and OH..guess what is going to happen to people with THOSE plans? Yep, they will be paying a higher percentage for that plan themselves.
What side of the coin do you like the most? Because whether you like ObamaCare or not, the States are going to make sure that Firefighters, Police Officers and the like pay a hefty portion for thier high end plans.
Let me guess, this little 'study' upstairs was sponsored by TheBlaze.com? or maybe Breitbart or O'Keefe?
The election was almost solely about the economy and JOBS!
And the fact that Dems SUCK at getting their constituency to the polls in off year elections. That is all.
Joe in Albany - I have a high deductible plan and you are just full of crap.
I had major surgery on 1-7-11, not to mention the treatments I underwent to AVOID surgery in 2010. HCR had NO impact on the cost of the plan, my premiums or my care.
You people hitting the hate-or-aid really need to do some fact based reality checks. The opinion upchuck is tired and false.
Joe, of course, being an expert on Constitutional Law.
You don't have to ask all of the justices. Just one...Justice Kennedy. We all know that Roberts, Scalia, Alito and Thomas will call it unconstitutional and Breyer, Kagan, Sotomayor and Ginsburg will call it constitutional. Kennedy's the swing vote.
I figure this way we can also work out our "conflict or interest" issues...you won't have to worry about Elena Kagan (solicitor general) and we won't have to worry about Clarence Thomas (wife on the take to lobby against HRC).
You all are so funny.
The better question is which one of you all is in charge of negotiating for you company's plan?
Anyone? Gosh I surprised. And yet you all have these comments that suggest you know something about the issue.
Tell you what Drive By - let's be sure to have this chat come November. I suspect you all might just have a little different tune to sing. And then it'll be worse the next year, then really bad the two after that. But then you all already know this, yes?
If anyone thinks big changes are not coming, and not just regarding costs, you are just silly. silly rabbits.
Yeah, Spanky, because we all know that costs would be going down right now if nothing was done.
I have not lost anything or got anything either. I still can not afford to go to a doctor. What is everyone afraid of, is it abortion, handing out condoms, what? Would you rather the indigent just walk into a gas chamber and get out of your face. Then who will be next on the chopping block, be careful it could be you.
A decent health care reform bill was turned into a federal mandate to buy insurance from a corrupt insurance industry, with all the competition and cost control measures removed, thanks to our corrupt corporate owned senate, Obama should not have signed it into law, but he did. Obama has had several opportunities to do the "right thing", but he didn't. The only reason Obama will get re-elected is because the Republicans have become such suck-ups to the wealthy that even the dumbest of voters will see they are commiting suicide if they vote Republican. A chose between worse and worser, the whole system sucks and has nothing to do with what's best for the country or it's citizens anymore, just how the wealthy are going to divide up the wealth.
w bush- That's because the weenies in Congress wouldn't vote for Medicare for all health care bill. It would have been easy to implement because the system was already set up and it would have offered health insurance as a reasonable cost that's better than most people with health care through their employers get. Remember that indemnity plans are the thing of the past??? Not in Medicare. It's strictly an 80/20 proposition and you get to choose your doctor!!! What a novel idea.
I don't know, w bush, if the dumbest voters see the Republicans will cause ANY problems for the country. They are buying the GOP and the Tea Party lies hook, line and sinker! Need I remind you of the 2010 elections! Wisconsinites are dumb-struck that their Governor is anti-union!!! Does no one investigate the people they are interested in voting for? And with the internet so accessible there is NO EXCUSE!
I wish I could argue with you about that Californi Girl , but I can't.
They didn't do health care ! Thats why..... they took the bribes to get money for reelection ..the people got screwed ..all they had to do is offer the insurance pools to everyone ...it creates "honest competition"and we pay for it ... not the government ! For people who are so smart and leaders ...these guys are total idiots !
In a related story on healthcare, McDonalds will be looking to hire 50000 workers this month to go to 24/7 operations
http://money.msn.com/investing/article.aspx?post=18b237fb-b0cd-47d6-b144-78ac6cbee9fa&from=en-us_msnhp>1=33009&_p=78fa3675-459a-4051-af0e-cbf078506022&_nwpt=1
That will boost Aprils numbers. Yepper, obama has created more jobs and created better healthcare for fast food workers. Oppps, didn't obama give micky dees a waiver?
It just shows how UNINFORMED the public is. They continually vote AGAINST their own best interests after being manipulated by the FAUX press and lying ads funded by the Koch Brothers.
Please explain to us how we are so UNINFORMED When your own leader said you have to pass the bill to see whats in the bill? You are the ones that are being lead around by the nose for these liars at MSNBC and the White House and we surely can't forget Mr. Tingly Legs Mathews Just how much of a prospective are you getting form these people. All you Liberals seem to think that the Tea Party is just a bunch of FAR RIGHT WINGERS You really need to get to know your enemy and when you do you will find that they are not only Republicans but they are Independents and yes even a few Democrats involved with them. It is your group that is off the chart WAY TO FAR LEFT and that is why you lost in 2010 and you will lose again in 2012. The true Americans don't like it when you ignore their wishes and tell them they are stupid and do what you want despite their objections
openminded, you've demonstrated what Suzanne Miller was saying. If you look at the entire quote in context Madame Speaker was making the point that there WAS NO complete bill at that time because it was still being amended and negotiated.
You've fallen for right wing spin.
Unless he gets rid of his own bill the "shellacking" will continue in 2012.
When FR talks about Paul Ryan messing around with Medicare, they call it "courage." It took a lot more courage for Democrats to vote for the Affordable Care Act in the face of screaming mobs of teabaggers and the Republicans' Pants-On-Fire lies about death panels, and government takeovers, lies that were seldom debunked by the "lamestream" media. Especially Congress members from more conservative districts new they would pay for it at the polls if they voted for it, but many of them voted on their principles, anyway.
They knew that it would not help them politically but they still went ahead with ACA for the good of the american people. Something to be respected.
When that many people think it is a really bad plan what makes these people think they know what is best for us. Not one of them knew what they were voting for they had said they didn't know what was in it and they still voted for this trash bill that no body wanted except for those that live and die by a nanny state mentality.
I just heard on the Ed Sholts radio show that Scott Walker just hired a kid who is a friend`s son, who has no experience, who has had 2 DUI convictions at over $80,000 a year. I`m sure you rightys have no problem with that.
Not one bit Because you lefties had no problem one bit when your leader put a communist in the White house and gave the Trash UAW 75% of Chrylser in Stock that wasn't even his to give away. That money belonged to the American people NOT THE UAW
BARB --- I'm a lefty but just because the right does something wrong does not justify the left DOING SOMETHING WRONG. Think please! Let's not be them, let's stop blaming the right and Bush for what our inept party is doing. Our Pres. has lied to us and has stuck it up our(the dems) butts. Let's focus on gettting him out and someone who can deliver what they promise. We put in the most polarizing Pres. ever.
Barb, You're a honest guy. There are better than that what we have in the WH. He hasn't delivered on jobs. He had so many job committee, commissions with so many job this, job that and still no jobs. Americans are hurting. His Socialist policies have failed especially Obamacare. Why couldn't he have tackled the job question first? Instead , now we have more govt jobs than private industry. Our country cannot proper with govt jobs as the leading economic factor.
The Left's attempt to introduce a Leninist-Socialist-Progressive type of Soviet style Communism has failed. They have failed collectively to realize that America is the bastion of Capitalism with people as individuals not groups and free to buy health care as they please. Dems you're not democratic . You're trying to tell us what to buy. You want to control people. It won't work in this modern age with all the electronic gadgets and media outlets. I wonder what next the Dems will be coming up with?
What's next Dems? Make us go to the crap house at the same time?
just because you lose, doesn't mean you didn't do the right thing? there are several republican govs which won election in 2010 and after just a few months the majority of citizens in those states want them out. we all tend to believe what we hear instead of doing the right thing and do our own research.
how many have read the health care bill? how many think it's right to denie any citizen the right to purchase health insurance? how many of you even know how health insurance work? and, how mwny of you are ready to denie a small bay an operation which could save their life?
Kr-- No offense but don't lecture about not knowing THEY NEVER DENY KIDS OPERATIOINS that is a horse crap talking point that my party came u with and you should know that. They don't deny ANYONE (even illeagals) LIFE SAVING operations. There are organizations and charities, hospitals doctors that do all sorts of operations for free. This health care bill B.S. is just that, an idea that can't be paid for. It has FAILED all over the world. Obama has already admitted the dollar figures were too low they need A LOT MORE MONEY to feed this impossible beast. Yes I'm a dem lib.
t4t, it's a gross misrepresentation of the facts to say no one is denied an operation. Hospitals are required by law to provide EMERGENCY CARE. They are not required to treat chronic medical conditions, provide care for cancer or other debilitating illness, and a whole host of other things. The legal obligation is very narrowly drawn...if you're going to die RIGHT NOW they're required to try to keep you from dying RIGHT NOW. You can die tomorrow or next week, that's OK under the law. You can be denied treatment for something that's going to lead to your death tomorrow or next week, that's OK under the law.
That's the reality for those who can't afford insurance, or prior to Affordable Care those who're caught by a preexisting conditions clauses.
Btw, Paul Ryan's budget brings back those preexisting conditions clauses...great piece of work that.