What cutting oil dependency could mean at the pump

From NBC's Jason Seher
In his speech at Georgetown University earlier today, President Obama outlined his vision for the future of American energy policy, emphasizing increasing vehicle efficiency standards and mining sources of alternative energy. Obama echoed promises he made on the campaign trail and since he's taken, touting American production of advanced electronic car batteries and job creating alternative energy programs.

These promises emanated from Mr. Obama's pledge to end -- or at least lessen -- the United States' dependence on foreign oil. Citing both the "dangers" of oil dependency and his predecessors’ inability to curb America's demand for foreign oil, the president pledged to "cut our oil dependence by a third" in 10 years. 

But what would that mean for American oil production and how would this cut impact gas prices?

"If everything else stood still, it could be big," said Amy Myers Jaffe, a fellow at the James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. "It could lower the price of oil to maybe $50 or $40 a barrel."

Co-author of "Oil, Dollars, Debt and Crises: The Global Curse of Black Gold," Jaffe believes oil from North Dakota's Bakken Shale and continued deepwater drilling could increase domestic oil production three- or four-million barrels a day, enough to push oil prices below $50 a barrel, assuming the geopolitical climate stays relatively stagnant.  

The last time oil dipped below $50 a barrel was Nov. 20, 2008, a few weeks after President Obama's election. For the week of Nov. 24, 2008, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a gallon of regular cost an average of $1.86. 

But Jaffe and others caution a number of factors, including political volatility in the Middle East and oil powers like OPEC, could blunt the impact this increase in domestic oil production would have.

“This plan is unlikely to affect the price that families pay at the pump," said Michael Greenstone, former chief economist for the White House's Council of Economic Advisors. "Even with enhanced production, the United States will account for a small share of what is a world market for petroleum." 

President Obama did temper his calls in today's speech for cutting dependency, acknowledging America only holds about 2 percent of the world's proven oil reserves. 

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Sorry you blew that opportunity in the 1970, when you know the guy the Conservatives call weak what his name, oh thats right Jimmy Carter , he told us to put on a sweater, Now because you dummy's didn't pay attention then soon very soon YOU WILL HAVE TO PUT ON A COUPLE OF COAT'S (GOOD FOR YOUS ASSES.

    Reply#28 - Thu Apr 14, 2011 9:11 PM EDT

    Per obama we hold only 2 percent of the worlds oil reserves... of course if he and the epa would let us drill we would discover differently. Alaska is loaded.

      Reply#29 - Tue Apr 19, 2011 12:59 PM EDT

      Mo Nig it's morning. The immediate focus should be on what BIG OIL is doing this very minute. Speculators, oil executives are literally crushing middle class economic freedom, commerce, and competition. Very soon, we will find ourselves a second class nation as our economy is destroyed. The two parties fight and we all suffer. Not one Washington politican has offered so much as "wait a minute", not one has called for an investigation to expose the perpetrators, and so no meaningful legislation is drated and enforced to stop this injustice. Gas is already $4.00 a gallon in much of America...........the "plan" was for $4.00 a gallon by summer; apparently GREED is ahead of schedule. Just watch gasoline prices in the DAYS ahead! We're in trouble this very minute! JMJ

        Reply#30 - Thu Apr 21, 2011 10:18 AM EDT

        I'm really sick and tired of this "America is addicted to oil" crap. Make something that works without oil or develop something else cars will run on and I'll be first in line!

        On another note...big oil is addicted to money and taking advantage of the American public knowing full well "we have no other choices" other than oil to run our vehicles to get us all to work so that "we" the American public can keep earning money to bail out the country from irresponsible over spending by our politicians. And then we have the speculators driving up the price of oil as well...that had got to stop...take delivery or shut the hell up with your speculating.

        No silver bullet needed Mr.President...just do the right and responsible thing...or don't and watch the country go down the toilet.

          Reply#31 - Sun Apr 24, 2011 12:46 AM EDT

          If we cut our dependence on oil, then who cares what the price of it is?

            Reply#32 - Tue Apr 26, 2011 4:17 PM EDT

            Oil policies are directed by the oil companies and OPEC lobbies without caring for consumers.

            There were efforts for substitutes for oil.

            Major auto companies, who have to do retooling and oil companies, crushed the efforts.

            Substitutes for oil can be easily popularized and the US can tap its own resources to reduce oil dependencies.

            Here again, special interest groups keep dragging the efforts to maintain high oil prices.

            • 1 vote
            Reply#33 - Tue May 3, 2011 6:46 AM EDT
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