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Subscribe to RSSFrom msnbc.com's Tom Curry: Despite Republican rhetoric about excessive spending and Democratic rhetoric about the failure to raise taxes on upper-income earners, the latest report from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office shows that as of last month, almost halfway through the current fiscal year, federal revenues were up 8.5 percent while spending was up only 0.6 percent (excluding the effects of payments shifted because of weekends, holidays and other factors).
Meanwhile individual income tax revenues were up a healthy 26.6 percent, compared to the same period in fiscal year 2010.
Former Treasury Department official Eugene Steuerle said some of this increase in income tax revenues is due to the ending of the Making Work Pay tax credit which was part of the 2009 stimulus and which expired in December.
Measuring the combined income tax and Social Security and Medicare taxes withheld so far this fiscal year, compared to last year, there has been a strong 10.7 percent increase, “which leaves one cautiously optimistic about the recovery,” Steuerle said.
The growth areas in spending are Medicaid (up 6.3 percent) and interest payments on the federal debt.
The increased Medicaid spending is one sign that despite the news last Friday of 192,000 jobs being created in February, the overhang of unemployed people who’ve lost their health insurance and must rely on Medicaid is still a burden on both federal and state governments.
As for debt, the CBO says, “Net interest on the public debt rose by $11 billion (or 13 percent) as a result of substantial growth in the national debt over the past year.”
This heavier debt load comes at a time when interest rates are historically low and the government is able to borrow cheaply: rates on the 10-year Treasury bond are about 3.6 percent, compared to their 50-year average of about 6.6 percent.
So if interest payments are a growing burden for the federal government when interest rates are historically low, what happens if they go up?
CBO gave some answers to that question in a recent letter it sent to House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan who had asked the agency to assess scenarios in which interest rates are higher than CBO is assuming in its own forecast.
CBO’s estimate is that rates will go up in the next few years with the rate on the ten-year Treasury note hitting 5.4 percent by 2017. As a result, “interest payments on the debt are poised to skyrocket over the next decade,” CBO said in its budget outlook released in January.
But at Ryan’s request, CBO re-ran the numbers using the average interest rates over the period from 1991 to 2000 (when the ten-year Treasury rate was about 6 percent).
The results were ugly. If those 1991-2000 rates were in effect over the next ten years, it would add another $1.1 trillion to the interest costs CBO is projecting in its own forecast.
Leave a Comment:
And if Ryan asked of interest rates in the 1970 when they were really high and inflation had been too(oil freeze -OPEC).
He could have gotten a scenario that no one could afford to live in the US of A.
What does that prove?
Pensions
749.6
0.0
165.0
37.7
952.3
Sickness and disability
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
[+]
Old age
749.6
0.0
165.0
37.7
952.3
[+]
Health Care
820.7
-356.9
427.8
129.9
1,021.6
[+]
Medical service (Seniors)
451.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
451.6
[+]
Medical service
0.0
-26.0
97.0
125.4
196.5
[+]
Public health services
4.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.1
[+]
R&D Health
34.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
34.2
Health n.e.c.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
[+]
Vendor Payments (Welfare)
330.7
-330.9
330.8
4.5
335.1
[+]
Education
140.4
-98.3
243.8
614.2
900.1
[+]
Pre-primary thru secondary education
73.3
-98.3
8.4
563.8
547.1
[+]
Tertiary education
20.0
0.0
195.6
38.0
253.6
[+]
Education not definable by level
47.1
0.0
39.9
12.4
99.4
Subsidiary services to education
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
R&D Education
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Education n.e.c.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
[+]
Charts: Click on a to display a bar of data in a row or column of this table.
Click on to display a time-series chart of data in a row.
[+] Drill-down: Click on the [+] to drill down to more detailed numbers. For federal spending line items (but not revenue) you can drill down three levels to view about 4,000 items of spending at the “agency code” level.
Defense
847.2
0.0
1.0
0.0
848.1
[+]
Military defense
693.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
693.6
Civil defense
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
[+]
Veterans
108.4
0.0
1.0
0.0
109.3
[+]
Foreign military aid
11.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.4
[+]
Foreign economic aid
33.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
33.8
R&D Defence
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
[+]
Defence n.e.c.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
[+]
Welfare
502.3
-34.3
187.1
94.3
749.4
[+]
Family and children
95.1
0.0
14.6
12.2
121.9
[+]
Unemployment
160.1
-5.0
5.1
0.0
160.2
[+]
Unemployment trust
0.0
0.0
75.9
0.1
76.0
[+]
Workers compensation
6.6
0.0
15.5
0.0
22.1
[+]
Housing
58.7
-29.3
8.5
38.0
75.8
[+]
Social exclusion n.e.c.
181.9
0.0
58.2
44.0
284.1
R&D Social protection
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
[+]
Social protection n.e.c.
0.0
0.0
9.3
0.0
9.3
[+]
Protection
53.4
0.0
91.5
174.1
319.1
[+]
Police services
27.8
0.0
12.4
80.7
120.9
[+]
Fire-protection services
0.0
0.0
0.0
39.7
39.7
[+]
Law courts
17.9
0.0
21.4
22.0
61.3
[+]
Prisons
7.7
0.0
48.4
26.2
82.4
R&D Public order and safety
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
[+]
Public order and safety n.e.c.
0.0
0.0
9.2
5.6
14.8
[+]
Transportation
92.0
-52.8
106.0
129.8
275.0
[+]
Transport
92.0
-42.8
94.4
84.7
228.3
[+]
Transit
0.0
-10.1
11.6
45.1
46.6
[+]
General Government
24.7
-0.7
32.1
60.2
116.3
[+]
Executive and legislative organs, financ
18.1
0.0
32.1
60.2
110.3
[+]
General services
6.7
-0.7
0.0
0.0
6.0
[+]
Other Spending
29.7
-51.4
85.1
329.8
393.3
[+]
Basic research
18.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
18.4
[+]
General economic, commercial and labour
-32.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-32.0
[+]
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunti
27.8
-2.6
13.9
9.7
48.8
[+]
Fuel and energy
6.7
-0.0
15.6
76.8
99.0
Mining, manufacturing and construction
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
[+]
Communication
-0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
[+]
Other industries
0.0
0.0
5.4
1.1
6.5
R&D Economic affairs
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
[+]
Economic affairs n.e.c.
-85.6
0.0
1.2
3.4
-80.9
[+]
Waste management
0.0
0.0
2.8
23.9
26.7
[+]
Waste water management
0.0
-1.6
1.2
42.9
42.6
[+]
Pollution abatement
10.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
10.8
[+]
Protection of biodiversity and landscape
10.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
10.8
R&D Environmental protection
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Environmental protection n.e.c.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
[+]
Housing development
35.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
35.8
[+]
Community development
23.8
0.0
0.0
1.9
25.7
[+]
Water supply
11.7
-1.2
0.3
53.4
64.1
Street lighting
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
R&D Housing and community amenities
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Housing and community amenities n.e.c.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
[+]
Recreational and sporting services
3.9
0.0
5.3
33.6
42.8
Cultural services
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Broadcasting and publishing services
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Religious and other community services
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
R&D Recreation, culture and religion
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Recreation, culture and religion n.e.c.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
R&D General public services
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
[+]
General public services n.e.c.
-1.7
0.0
39.4
83.2
120.9
[+]
Transfers of a general character between
0.0
-46.0
0.0
0.0
-46.0
[+]
Interest
196.2
0.0
46.0
56.9
299.0
[+]
Public debt transactions
196.2
0.0
46.0
56.9
299.0
[+]
Balance
-0.0
-0.0
22.7
140.1
162.8
[+]
Total Spending
3,456.2
-594.4
1,408.0
1,767.1
6,036.9
[+]
Total
3,456.2
-594.4
1,408.0
1,767.1
6,036.9
[+]
Federal Deficit
1,293.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
1,293.5
[+]
Total Spending
3,456.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
3,456.2
[+]
Total Revenue
-2,162.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2,162.7
[+]
Gross Public Debt
13,528.8
0.0
1,093.2
1,700.8
16,322.8
[+]
Public Debt
8,207.3
0.0
1,093.2
1,700.8
11,001.3
[+]
Public Debt Held by Government
4,509.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
4,509.9
[+]
Monetized Public Debt
811.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
811.7
Click for Bar Chart ->
Spending:
Pie Chart: Select a pie chart you wish to display. You can create a pie chart for federal, state and local, and overall spending/revenue.
actual guesstimated4
Notes:
1. Budget of the US Government: Historical Table 10.1
2. Budget of the US Government: Historical Tables 3.2 and 7.1
3. State and Local Government Finances
4. “Guesstimated” by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years
Switch to revenue
More of MSNBC's intentionally suggestive wording...."Obama applauds the increase in jobs numbers"....
Once again, further proving that MSNBC continually attempts to place Barack Obama in a positive light with their endless "sucking-up" wording...... even though America knows nothing could be further from the truth.
The fact is, and as everyone knows.... all anyone has to do is look at the employment statistics from the last two and a half years.... prior to the period of B.O. (before Obama).
Fact:
Unemployment hovered around the 6 to 6.5% range during early 2008. Significant and very devestating unemployment began as early as late July/early August of 2008....when it became clear and very obvious to America and most employers that Barack Obama was going to win the presidency and John McCain didn't have a chance of winning. Employers, planning for the future, knew they were going to be forced with new government regulations and restrictions.... not to mention the potentially devestating higher costs which could easily bankrupt them..... so, they immediately began downsizing. And, it's been proven, their predictions were justified.
These drastic increases in unemployment began as early as late July, 2008.... and consistently continued.... month after month.... with numbers ranging as high as 500,000 to 750,000 per month !!!!.... these devestating unemployment numbers contined further still.... even after Obama was elected in Nov 2008....
Obama assumes the presidency in late January of 2009.... and, still the unemployment numbers climb in excess of 700,000 per month.... and what's the first thing Barack Obama demand that he wants ?.... MONEY !..... (but Obama continually uses the Bush card as his excuse... that the high unemployment was happening during Bush's watch)
Obama tells America.... "I need you to give me nearly a TRILLION DOLLARS (stimulous package), or I won't be able to promise that I will keep the national unemployment rate BELOW 8% !!!
So, Obama's puppets.... Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid fall over themselves convincing their liberal DEMOCRAT majorities to hurry and rush Obama's TRILLION DOLLAR (stimulous package) through... (AGAINST THE WILL OF THE AMERICAN PUBLIC) to come up with some quick, "shovel-ready" jobs to stop the run-away RISE IN UNEMPLOYMENT !
And what benefit did America get from this remarkable Obama, Reid, Pelosi scheme ????... the National Unemployment rate rises to nearly 10 % !!!
Needless to say....AMERICA HAD HAD ENOUGH OF THESE LIES AND DECEIT !!!.... and clearly demonstrated this in the Nov 2010 elections.... creating the basis for fiscal restraint in the final days of the Lame-Duck session of Congress in 2010.... which in turn, created a positive momentum, and more optomistic outlook for EMPLOYERS, all across America.
The NEW fiscally-responsible, more conservative Congressional legislators took over in January of 2011... and what's the almost immediate result in the National Unemployment numbers ????...... 8.9% !!!.... a drop of nearly an ENTIRE PERCENTAGE POINT !!!..... IN SLIGHTLY OVER ONE MONTH !!!
(and, what does suck-up MSNBC expect you to do ????..... send Obama a thank-you card....) ..... too bad America knows the REAL truth.
Excellent post. Don't forget though that a large amount of the stimulas went to states to shore up their budget deficits. Hence, the new term "jobs saved". How do you quantify that number. Oh you mean all those public sector jobs that grew in number while private sector was getting clobbered. Now that has come home, states are asking their workers to share some of what private has endured. They have to because that "stimulas " money is no longer flowing to states. Most of the governors used that money to only continue the problem. Their problem, many of them lost. Our gain.
Comparing the unemployment figures between Bush and Obama is meaningless. DOn't you remember, the U.S. was losing 700,000 jobs per month due to the failed Bush policies at the time Obama took office. It takes some time to stem the tide and turn things around. Have you ever run a company? I have, and it takes time to stem a free fall and then turn things around. You can't just flip a switch. He did what was needed to stop us from falling into a depression. Here's another stat for you: The economy was declining by over 6% in the last quarter of the Bush Administration and now the economy is growing by 3%. Statistics don't lie but liers use statistics, you idiot.
Blame Bush..........for cripes sake. Is that ALL you people are worth??? You damn Dems have had CONTROL for the past 4 years. Get a grip!
You all do remember do you not who CONTROLLED CONGRESS for the past 4 YEARS right??? You damn Progressive/Socialist Democratic Party that's who. So when you want to go back to 2008 I suggest you look ONLY to your damn Dem party.
You can quickly sum up the left's position and solution to our economic problem.
1. Blame Bush
2. Tax the rich
3. Redistribute the wealth in the private sector
That is their grand plan to solve this countries serious financial crisis. This self-serving, entitlement mentality is destroying this country. The real tragedy is that that sums up Obama's strategy as a President. It is time for a real change to something we can believe in and survive as a nation.
Tony: I am totally with you. These Progressive/Socialist Democrat leftie libs are bound and determined to kill the country. They care ONLY for the Spread-the-Wealth Socialist mentality and the only thing I can figure is that they are unsuccessful people that want the Government to "take care of them". It is against EVERYTHING that our country has always stood for. Years back of course we would have called them Communists as Socialism is the first step to Communism. Obama hates this country and the people. He always has and he fashions himself a dictator. The sooner he can shove us into the Global Governance through the United Nations the more satisfied he will be.
Sounds good to me........they stole it from us in the first place and THEY ARE STILL NOT IN JAIL FOR IT.
Can any math majors here tell me how long it will take for the US economy to completely collapse from continuous trillion dollar deficits?
About as long as it takes to put the financial crooks in jail, till then don't cut the middle and lower class out. I am sick of Alan Simpson and his stupid cowbay homily's and all the rest of the crap. Get us our money back.
For those of you who keep mis-stating, the proposed $6billion is for the FY11 budget! Not the future FY12 budget, and that is on top of the cuts that have already been made to the FY11 budget. Also if you want to know what the president and other officials in Washington plan to do about it, go to C-SPAN and read up on it! News articles give some of the information, not all of it. And blaming the democrates for unemployment and the deficit is crap, it's just as much their fault as the republicans, the only difference is it started when Bush started the Iraq and Afganistan wars, which started the country on a downward spiral. Unemployment was at 8% when Obama came into office and grew to almost 11% by the end of his first year, however they have started to decline and now the unemployment rate is under 9%. The democrates have already proposed $100billion decrease on the FY12 deficit and more cuts are coming which include the cuts the republicans are proposing.
It takes time to get a country out of a bad economy, which started during Bush's administration, and yes the democrates had control over the house and the senate, but not for his whole term, so to put the blame on the democrates for the screw up the republicans started isn't right. They are all to blame, the question is what are they planning on doing about it? Again, read the Moment of Truth article posted on C-SPAN to gain a better view of what Washington is going to be proposing over the next couple of years.
And last, for those of you who think going in and cutting the FY11 budget without there being any consequences to it, your wrong. Already the budget for FY11 was cut and the first thing they took was the pay raises and cost of living increases government civilians receive. They froze hiring new employees within some organizations and are cutting contract funding, which means some of the employees for those contractors are now going to be out of work, and this has all been done since the end of last year. And if a proposed budget isn't reach by March 18, over 700,000 people will be out of work.
It all started under Bush? Who are you kidding? Have you heard of NAFTA? Add in high taxes and union demands and what you end up with is companies left with ZERO incentives to hang around the US. Jobs leave, tax revenue declines, spending increases, deficits balloon, and voila....you have a country on the fast track to financial collapse. The path to this destination started long before Bush!
What a crock!
NAFTA began under George H.W. Bush! Look it up!
"Add in high taxes and union demands....."
Are you serious> Most US corporations don't pay taxes! Oh yes, they accrue taxes over the yar, but then take advantage of subsidies and tax loop-holes to the point where they don't actually pay. The only money most corporations send to the government are the payroll taxes they've collected from their employees on behalf of the government - and that money doesn't belong to the corporations - it belongs to the employees.
Union demands? What is it that unions demand that you don't expect on your job? Safe working conditions? A way to bargain for fair pay and benefits programs. A way of protecting an employee from a hostile work environment or some sort of harassment?
You don't want thoes ethings on your job? If you do, then why complain that someone else actually has them? That makes no sense at all!
Go talk to workers in a "right-to-work" state, and ask them if they'd like to have some of those protections and benefits! Want to bet what the answer would be?
NAFTA started under George H.W. Bush, so what's your point? Mine was in response to the allegation that it all started under the Bush that started the Iraq and Afghan wars....his SON. As for safe working conditions, can't OSHA enforce this without Union help? Unions served their purpose decades ago, and plenty of non-union employees (most US workers) will tell you they are treated just fine.
Republicans will simply refuse to accept the fact that the economy is actually recovering.
For example, Representative Paul Ryan didn't like the numbers the CBO put out, so he asked them to run different numbers which would paint a far less favorable picture. Of course, he likes those numbers because they agree with him.
Go figure!
Recovering? Huh? Really? Our economy is going to collapse within a couple of years under the weight of our massive, unrecoverable debt. Don't count on any GOP or DEM controlled congress to stop the inevitable.
How about we start concentrating on the people spending our hard earned tax dollars and stop taking "jabs" at each other for the past.
It's the politicians we should be keeping in line and nagging..........not each other. The politicians sure do know how to pin one side against the other. They have been doing this for ever with half truths and misleading facts. This goes for both sides.
Let's hold accountable who should be held accountable.........that would be Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and Conservatives.......All the Politicians.