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Subscribe to RSSNBC/WSJ poll suggests GOP is caught between a cliff (independents who might not like deep budget cuts) and a charging tiger (a Tea Party that does)… What’s popular and unpopular to cut… The poll on Wisconsin and the state budget battles: 62% say it’s unacceptable to curb collective-bargaining rights as a way to deal with state budget deficits… A majority wants more government, not less… Obama’s down (in approval), but up (against Romney and Pawlenty)… A Tale of Two Republican Parties… Newt meets with the press (what will he say?)… Roemer to launch exploratory committee… And Akaka’s retirement.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Chased by a tiger: Republicans may have won the battle in passing the two-week spending extension (that contains $4 billion in cuts), and Senate Democrats might be struggling to draft their own legislation to keep the government funded for the rest of the year. But our new NBC/WSJ poll suggests that Republicans are caught between a rock and a hard place -- or, as our co-pollster Bill McInturff puts it, between a cliff and a charging tiger. “It may be hard to understand why a person might jump off a cliff, unless you understand they’re being chased by a tiger,” he said. “That tiger is the Tea Party.” McInturff’s explanation: The Americans who are most concerned about spending cuts are core Republicans and conservatives, not independents or swing voters.
*** Republicans vs. swing-voter groups on spending cuts: Consider: 33% of Tea Party supporters, 34% of Republicans, and 35% of McCain voters list deficit/spending as the top issue the federal government should address, compared with 23% of independents, 24% of suburban women, 19% of seniors, and 19% of those ages 18 to 34 who say that. By contrast, 35% of seniors, 39% of 18- to 34-year-olds, 40% of independents, and 41% of suburban women believe job creation/economic growth is nation's top issue. And two-thirds of independents, seniors, 18- to 34-year-olds and suburban women say they are concerned that major cuts to government spending could impact them and their families, versus roughly half of Republicans, McCain voters, and Tea Party supporters who think that.
*** Popular vs. unpopular cuts: The NBC/WSJ poll also lists 26 different ways to reduce the federal budget deficit. The most popular: placing a surtax on federal income taxes for those who make more than $1 million per year (81% said that was acceptable), eliminating spending on earmarks (78%), eliminating funding for weapons systems the Defense Department says aren’t necessary (76%) and eliminating tax credits for the oil and gas industries (74%). The least popular: cutting funding for Medicaid (32% said that was acceptable), cutting funding for Medicare (23%), cutting funding for K-12 education (22%), and cutting funding for Social Security (22%). Those numbers, McInturff says, “serve as a huge flashing yellow sign to Republicans … if they are going to start to talk about changes to Medicare and Social Security" in April of this year, as House Republicans have promised.
*** On Wisconsin and the state budget battles: Turning to the budget battles in the states, strong majorities say they are comfortable with states requiring their employees to pay more for their retirement and health care to balance budget deficits. But they oppose stripping public employees' collective-bargaining rights -- as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) and Ohio Republicans are pursuing in their states. In the poll, 68% find it acceptable requiring public employees to contribute more of their pay for retirement benefits; 63% are fine with requiring these employees to pay more for their health-care benefits; and 58% are OK with freezing public employees' salaries for one year. However, just 33% say it's acceptable -- and 62% say it's unacceptable -- to eliminate some employees collective-bargaining rights as way to deal with state budget deficits. Americans don't like taking away "rights"; they may be loathe to award NEW rights. But once folks have them, they don't like taking them away even if they are uncomfortable or unhappy with some aspects of those rights or how they are being used. Another example of this: guns.
*** More government, not less: This is another striking finding from the survey: For the first time since Feb. 2009 -- right after Obama took office -- a majority (51%) believes the government should do more to solve the nation’s problems and meet the needs of people. And get this: That opinion is shared by a majority (an equal 51%) of independents. Americans are feeling shaky again about the economy, and our pollsters believe there's a correlation between the government-should-do-more number and the increased anxiety about the economic recovery.
*** Obama’s down -- but also up: As for President Obama, the poll shows his approval rating declining a few points since Tucson, from 53%-41% in January to 48%-46% now. “If you leave out Tucson, the president’s job rating is where it was for most of 2010 -- not terrible, not great,” said NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D). (Still, it's a net positive, only the second time he's had a net positive rating since May 2010.) Looking ahead to 2012, Obama leads Mitt Romney (R) by nine points in a hypothetical general-election presidential contest, 49%-40%, and he leads former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) by 19 points, 50% to 31%. But against a generic Republican, the president’s lead narrows to five points, with 45% saying they will “probably vote” for him and 40% saying they will “probably vote” for the GOP candidate.
*** A Tale of Two Republican Parties: Meanwhile, looking at the GOP field, we’ll paraphrase John Edwards’ “Two Americas” -- there are two Republican parties right now. Put simply, Tea Party Republicans back Huckabee, and non-Tea Party Republicans prefer Romney. This means that if Huck and Palin, as expected, don’t run, there’s A LOT of space for someone to seize the Tea Party mantle. (And that’s probably why we saw Team T-Paw produce that Tea-Pawty video.) Overall, Huckabee leads the pack as the first choice of 25% of GOP primary voters -- followed Romney at 21%, Newt Gingrich at 13% and Palin at 12%. Ron Paul comes in fifth at 6% -- followed by Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels at 3%, Rick Santorum at 2%, and Jon Huntsman at 1%. And get this: Haley Barbour was the first choice of just one respondent out of the 282 GOP primary voters the poll surveyed.
*** Newt’s day: Speaking of the GOP presidential field, Gingrich meets with Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal (R) to discuss states rights and the 10th Amendment in the governor’s office at 2:30 pm ET, and the two men will hold a media avail afterward. What Newt will say at the avail is anyone’s guess. But as we wrote yesterday, it wouldn’t be surprising if he announced he’s “testing the waters,” or “intending” to form an exploratory committee, or entering an “exploratory phase.” Then again, now that FOX has suspended him -- as well as Rick Santorum -- that’s one less thing he has to worry about. Interestingly, Newt, a former Speaker (and former LEADER of the GOP establishment) does 12 points better among tea party Republicans than NON-tea party, er, establishment Republicans.
*** And Roemer’s day, too: And it appears that Newt will get a little competition today. At 1:30 p.m. ET, former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer holds a news conference in Baton Rouge, La. to announce the formation of a presidential exploratory committee. “I should be president or somebody better than I should be,” Roemer told Politico’s Martin yesterday. “And the only way to make sure of that is to make [my opponents] go around me, through me or over me in the primaries.” Martin notes, “While Roemer is a native son of a state that witnessed a miracle last year — the New Orleans Saints won the Super Bowl — he faces very long odds. A former Democratic member of Congress who switched to the GOP in 1991, midway through his single term as governor, Roemer has been largely absent from politics since consecutive failed gubernatorial runs.”
*** Ready to compromise, er, find “common ground”? The White House yesterday looked eager to seek out a repeat of the lame-duck session compromise on taxes, offering up Vice President Biden to negotiate with Republicans on a longer-term solution to keep the government up and running. But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker John Boehner appeared reticent to the offer, insisting Senate Democrats come up with their own plan -- publicly -- first. This meeting for today that the White House wants is not yet scheduled. Republicans have to be careful not to look like they are just trying to delay and that they aren’t willing to negotiate in good faith. It’s a tough balance for them with the Tea Party freshmen, who will likely insist on the full package of cuts. But there’s no reason negotiations can’t happen with the House GOP’s $61 billion cuts plan as the starting point. After all, the lame-duck tax cut deal was struck behind closed doors.
*** Akaka’s retirement: Lastly, word came out last night that Hawaii Sen. Daniel Akaka won’t seek re-election next year, which creates yet another open Senate race for Republicans. But even if former Gov. Linda Lingle (R) gets in, it will be tough for a Republican to win a race in Obama’s home state when he’s on the ballot. By the way, this is PROBABLY the last retirement; DSCC Chair Patty Murray and Senate Dem leader Harry Reid have been pushing incumbents up in 2012 hard to make QUICK decisions. And Akaka was the last unknown.
Countdown to continuing resolution’s expiration: 15 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 162 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 250 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 340 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up
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Tea Party or Republican can we believe that the best interests of the nation are being looked after or are these people just want to push their will upon the people of America.
The America that is being pushed by the Republicans and Tea Party seems to be a very cold and unforgiving place to live. Keep your money, the hell with the poor, old, sick or young, there are better ways to spend a person's money. Everyone for himself and the rest of the world be damned.
Norman Rockwell would not recognize the America we now have and there seems little chance that America will be a better place at the rate things are going.
Oh the liberals are not pushing their will upon the American people? The word "progressive" is another word for "dependent". This plays well to people who believe that they should share in someone else's wealth and not work for it. This is socialism. Is that what you want? Liberals are afraid of freedom. Freedom means responsibility for your own well being and not being dependent on government. You know self reliant. The more people that become dependent, the more freedom we give up. You have to ask yourself, in the long run who funds this dependent society? The tea party is trying to push Washington to fiscal responsibility. If they fail you will really have something to cry about.
Tony
I'm proud to call myself a liberal. I've worked 30 years, last week almost 70 hours. I've never so much as collected unemployment compensation when I could have. I also financially help an elderly parent. I don't expect anything from you or anyone else. I do think, however that we need a middle class in this country and take care of those in need. We don't need, as but one example, tax breaks for the Oil companies at the expense of the poor in this country. Republicans do. My father is turning in his grave over what the Republicans have turned into.
Tony, you have a point but you're argument isn't thought through. It's not enough to just sling names around, like "unemployment benefits" = "socialism." And "progressive" = "dependent." The economy is a complicated engine and we need to base our opinions on facts rather than bullet points and names picked up from media pundits whose job is to keep us from having to think too hard. Name calling really belongs on a third-grade playground. Rush -- a multimillionaire -- keep carrying on about union "thugs" and the "slobs" and "freeloaders" demonstrating in Wisconsin. Easy slurs lead to easy conclusions, but innacurate ones. Nothing is as simple as "good" (us) versus "evil" (them). It would be nice to think so.
Living with in your budget for Rep and dems has been a rough go, reminds me of my 6 yr old when when a simple rule is enforced. Luckily we have the Tea party to do the hard stuff. There will be plenty of screaming along the way, but it will get done, screaming kids eventually quit when they understand its not working.
The American people are not children; and the Tea Party is certainly not a thoughtful, compassionate, responsible parent.
I think they should quickly agree to getting our troops out of Iraq, Afghanistan, Germany and Japan. Not only have we done as more or really more than we should in those endeavors, taking that load off improves the long term budget outlook so they can more carefully eliminate waste and not have to cut so ruthlessly to end the deficit spending.
60% to 70% of the people want the tax breaks taken from the top 2% earners, and the 46 billion given to big oil and defense spending cuts for projects not wanted.
Can anyone tell me why the Republicans –Tea People in the House don’t want these budget measures?
It is too bad that they did not let the tax rate increase for the top earners. Then you would have to complain about something else. It is really disturbing to see that so many people have been fooled to believe that capitalism is what is wrong with this country. We are really headed for the end. We have almost half of the citizens in this country paying zero to fund the federal government all the while wanting more. A recipe for our demise
BE careful what you ask for. If the US government goes with What I call the "Inflate your way out of the budget mess" , solution to solve our deficit problems , it entirely possible we may all be millionaires except the buying power will be less than you have today. You may be drawn in the millionaires tax even though you are still poor.
I'm not poor. Heck, I can afford to pay 10% more.
Disappointed that the Nightly News chooses to ignore the labor threats being posed by the GOP and instead focuses on GOP talking points on public employee benefits (of which, unions have already agreed to cuts). These labor threats will be the most important news of 2011, not deficits. Firstly because the middle class has already shouldered economic burdens (whether self-inflicted or not is another story) and have felt the greatest impact from the financial collapse. Secondly because of the GOP's climb to power and extraordinary hubris and hypocrisy once there. They claimed to be more interested in job creation but then, on the state level, began a path of destroying middle class protections.
Despite their attempts, the economy will continue to expand. It won't be a good year for the GOP.
How wrong you are. 14 trillion dollar debt equal to a 14 trillion dollar GDP means zero economic growth. With Obama proposing a 1.1 trillion dollar deficit for 2012 after he and his pals did not even present a budget for 2011, we have a recipe for diasaster. Now with oil on the move and the really dumb move by Obama to stop drilling in the Gulf with the loss of thousands of high paying job, we are really in for a tough year. There will be limited job creation and you can thank Obama. I guess all those oil workers were not middle class enough.
Why on earth do people still think the gop wants to improve the economy? If the economy improves and jobs are created, President Obama wins reelection. The baggers have said they will not let that happen. soooo-no jobs, no improvement to the economy; blame it on the President, voila! gop wins, people lose...
The Republicans propelled their most hateful, uneducated, morally crippled base into an exalted position, whereas previously they paid them lip service and then went about governing as though they'd never existed.
The last election was top heavy with a bunch of old white slobs belching racist mouth farts and incoherent nonsense courtesy of Fox News. Hopefully this will be their last stinky gasp. They're dying now and the brain dead "independents" who joined them are going to be seeing clearly that the GOP does not look out for people like them. And hopefully we can see a government that works for real people without being fettered by corporate bag men, assorted grifters and that screeching idiot crook from Alaska.
I'm wondering what kind of hallucinogenic consumption is needed to believe that companies who treat employees like slaves, run work facilities that are filthy, polluted and a threat to human health for workers and surrounding community and exploit child labor, if given sufficient tax freedom, would relocate back in the United States and treat workers fairly, in a healthy environment and pay decent wages if there were no unions.
All these crazy spending cut etc ideas have one thing in common, screw some American demographic group. Where is the talk about cutting all the global welfare that we give away to so many countries. How about we let them fend for themselves, learn to exist on their own. Then cut some of the politicians self given perks. I mean WTF? 100% health care for life, massive pensions after 1 or 2 terms. Next on my chopping block via real tax increase (no loopholes) would be all salaries over $1M/yr unless the disparity between the highest/lowest full time salary in the company was less than 20x. That is still proportionally higher pay for the execs than the rest of the developed world, so the ultra-conservative arguement that "Oh they'll just move overseas" is BS.
Sounds reasonable enough, although we have to distinguish between "saving money" and "punishing our representatives." I doubt their salaries and heatlh care add much to the federal budget. Ditto the much maligned "foreign aid." If you don't add our military bases overseas, it adds up to a fraction of one percent of the federal budget. (Sweden's is about 7%.) And most of what is designated "foreign aid" goes as a kind of bribery to those countries we depend on for support in the international market for ideas and goods. The "real tax increases" on salaries over %1M isn't a bad idea. According to an IRS report (for 2007, last year data are available) the richest 400 people in the country paid 16.6% of their income in federal taxes. Most of their income comes not from compensation for services but from capital gains, income, and dividends, capped at 15%. It won't be an easy job.
This whole business about the Tea Party "Tiger" chasing reminds me of the Little Black Sambo story I was intrigued by as a little kid. I don't know if that kind of tea would be any better tasting if turned to butter but would have to say that most anything would be preferable to what it is now. Best case scenario is that it would dissipate into nothingness. In any event I had to pull the story from way back in a distant past when things were much different (at least in some ways) from today. I like to think I've grown up since then and wish I could say the same in regard to least some of my peers.