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Subscribe to RSSAre the political winds changing? … New NBC/WSJ poll has Obama approval at 53%... Also, 40% now label him a political moderate -- which is maybe why we haven’t heard “Obama is a socialist” in a while… But is this bump for Obama a transition or a transitory moment?... Poll also shows a short honeymoon for the GOP… Handicapping 2012… And polling birthright citizenship.
*** Are the political winds changing? Exactly two years ago today, Barack Obama was sworn in as the country’s 44th president -- a sign that the political winds were firmly at the Democratic Party’s back. Then, a year ago today, we had discovered the winds had shifted with the news that Scott Brown (R) had just captured Ted Kennedy’s old Senate seat, ending the Dems’ filibuster-proof majority. It began a slow descent for the Democrats and culminated with the November "shellacking." But are the political winds once again changing? After a stretch that included the bipartisan legislative achievements in the lame duck, mostly positive economic news, and Obama’s speech in Arizona come these numbers in the new NBC/WSJ poll: Obama’s approval is at 53% (where he hasn't been since before those summer town halls in ‘09, that's 18 months ago); confidence that the economy will improve in the next 12 months jumped eight points from last month; and the Dem Party’s fav/unfav went from a net negative (37%-41%) to a net positive (39%-35%). “The last six weeks have been the best six weeks the president has had in his first two years in office,” said NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D).
*** Maybe this is why we haven’t heard “Obama is a socialist” in a while: We’ll take it one step further: These might have been Obama’s best six weeks since Fall 2008. Indeed, the bump in Obama’s approval was across the board -- independents moved from 35% approval to 46%; Democrats went from 76% to 86%, and Republicans went from 11% to 15%. Perhaps the most surprising result in the poll? Try 40% labeling the president as a political moderate, compared with 45% who see him as a liberal and 11% who view him as a conservative. That moderate number is the highest for Obama in the NBC/WSJ poll, even higher than it was before his inauguration.
*** A transition or a transitory moment? But Hart and co-pollster Bill McInturff (R) say these poll numbers present this question for Obama, especially with the 2012 election on the horizon: Is this a transition, or is it a transitory moment? After all, Bill Clinton saw a bump after the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, but it lasted just a couple of months. (Of course, Clinton went on to easily win re-election.) And there are still plenty of warning signs for Obama and the Democrats. A majority (56%) thinks the county is on the wrong track; 50% disapprove of Obama's economic handling; and a combined 82% say the Afghanistan war has either gotten worse or stayed the same, and 71% believe the U.S. will ultimately have to withdraw and leave the country without a stable democratic government. Here’s one other way to look at Obama’s numbers: This might be a ceiling for him, at least in this current economic climate. If you’re not going to approve of his job after Arizona, then you aren’t going to approve of it later…
*** The GOP’s short honeymoon: But the bigger warning signs in the poll appear directed at the party that's been in control of the House for just two weeks. Only 25% say the Republicans in Congress will bring the right kind of change (versus 42% who said that about the Dems in Jan. 2007, and 37% who said that about the GOP in Jan. 1995). In addition, a majority (55%) believe congressional Republicans will be too inflexible in dealing with Obama, while an equal number (55%) say Obama will strike the right balance. And then there's this: The GOP's fav/unfav has gone from a net positive in December (38%-37%) to a net negative now (34%-40%). "I think this has been a pretty short Republican honeymoon," McInturff says. Hart adds, "I think the president has the benefit of the doubt, and the Republicans -- based on this data -- have the burden of proof."
*** Handicapping 2012: Looking ahead to the 2012 presidential race, the NBC/WSJ poll shows Obama leading Mike Huckabee by 10 points (51%-41%) and Newt Gingrich by 19 points (54%-35%). The December poll had him leading Mitt Romney by seven (47%-40%) and Sarah Palin by 22 (55%-33%). But keep in mind: At this stage of the 1996 cycle, McInturff says, Bob Dole was leading Bill Clinton in the NBC/WSJ poll. That tells us one of two things: Either these polls aren't that reliable this far out, or that Obama enters the 2012 in a much stronger position than Clinton did in '96. For the first time, our poll also handicapped the ’12 GOP field. Leading the pack are Romney (the first choice of 19% of Republicans and independents) and Huckabee (18%) -- followed by Palin (14%), Gingrich (10%), Ron Paul (8%), and Tim Pawlenty (at 5%). We also asked "second choice," and if you take Palin out, the person who benefits the most is Huckabee. He would lead a Palin-less GOP primary, not Romney. By the way, here’s another 2012 poll: Per Quinnipiac, 48% of Ohio voters say Obama deserves re-election, while 44% say he doesn’t. The president’s approval in the Buckeye State is 49%-46%.
*** Polling birthright citizenship: We’ll leave you with a final set of numbers from our NBC/WSJ poll. In it, 50% believe the U.S. should continue to grant citizenship to all children born in the country, including children of illegal immigrants. Yet 47% think this should be changed so children of illegal immigrants aren’t automatically granted citizenship. The divide breaks along party lines: 67% of Democrats want to continue granting automatic citizenship, while 69% of Republicans don’t. By the way, Hispanics support birthright citizenship by a nearly 80%-20% margin. Does this make the issue untouchable for Republican presidential candidates who think they might be the nominee?
Countdown Chicago’s mayoral election: 33 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 292 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 382 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up
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presto, chango--------- I am now a centrist. Vote for me. I don't think so.
Obama is an actual socialist even though he doesn't like to play one on tv. The only capitalism he is a fan of is crony-capitalism. The list of 'capitalist buddies' is as long and impressive as it is bought and paid for. (Example: GE owning NBC providing cover = government contracts + super bowls at the White House) For every perk doled out to an Obama 'business partner' some 'unconnected loser' is paying the freight. Fun for all those on the right side of the trade while it lasts, but as they like to say - not sustainable.
No one, not even Obama, can be in favor of redistribution of wealth, a single payor health system, and social justice and not be considered a socialist. These are not mere clues, but the very definition thereof.
Obama is Hugo Chavez in much nicer clothing.
Being an impatient sort, and with the republicans in town to drag their feet slowing the agenda (I mean transformation) for a couple of years, I sure wish I knew where the fully functioning socialist utopias with open borders are. Oh, that's right ------ THERE ARE NONE.
During the first two years of his administration, obama was extremely critical of big business, calling them out daily as pigs, working for the dollar rather than distributing the wealth to the less fortunate. Obama 1.0.
Now we hear during the past several days, that the President is collecting information on how to make it easier for business to succeed. Obama 2.0.
Some indicate he is moving to the center. Some indicate that his centrist leaning will hurt his leftist followers. Could this be true, or: he needs to create an image of working to find jobs in America; needing money from the business communtiy to help fund his 2012 campaign run for Prez.; or just modifying his image for the 2012 then reverting back to his normal leftist self.
As a community organizer, he has learned to be all things to all people, with finality to none. As a President, he is a failure.
Safecracker- right you are-!
and- Obama 1.0 + Obama 2.0 still = Jimmy Carter 2.0
Is President Obama going to attend a memorial service for the eight people (that we know of) who are victims of the "Doctor" in Philadelphia. Keep in mind this is the man who approves of abortions at any time. Even if the child is outside the womb.
My health insurance increased by 33% this quarter and I haven't made a claim to warrant an increase. I wonder who's health insurance I am funding. The insurance companies should not be allowed to make these unwarranted increases. The insurance industry is full of thieves and our government is doing nothing to stop them.
the only power is who has the most money, they are all bought and paid for, as long as elections are about who can raise the most money corporations and the rich will continue to rule, and anyone that says anything they don't like will be called socialist or communist, how's it worked out for you, higher prices, more unemployment, no retirement. just like the poor white that didn't own slaves but hoped to become rich enough to do so fought for the confederacy, anyone that works for a living that thinks a republican or any politian is their friend is a fool, my vote don't count so i will vote anything but republican or democrat from now on, they make speaches and say they will do things but it's just more of hte same, tunnisia did it better, it looks like they will get real change
These polls mean NOTHING, especially from NBC "The Liberal of Liberal Networks".....Let me see, the Obama administration has added 4 Trillion to the national debt in 2 yrs. ..... America wake up!!!!!!! everyone keeps wanting free lunch, such as FREE healthcare for 32 million.......their is no free lunch America, someone has to pay for everything that is offered by these professional politicians....these politicians promise you things to get your vote so they can keep their $195,000 salary with all of the perks......Go to www.usdebtclock.org and check out the numbers.....place your cursor on each number and it will explain at the top of the page what that number represents.....After looking at this, if you believe the United States is in good financial shape and that we can continue this debt sprial and it won't effect our standard of living in this country down the road, then for every $100 you send me i will send you $1000 in return.........
It is clear to me that with all that has been going on with the Washington SECT. this Country is in the hands of DESTRUCTION and without FULL REPENTANCE we as a Nation will Fall dew to the hands of Corruption.
The American people are ignorant to the BLACK ENVELOPE OPERATIONS of the so called Fed's.
Most Americans refuse to believe that this group of people are incapable of such maneuvers against it's people. You have a President who according to Article II Section I of our CONSTITUTION should not be President because he is not a NATURAL BORN citizen. You have so many out in this country STUCK ON THE BIRTH CERTIFICATE of where he was born when THOMAS JEFFERSON himself would say that my dear citizens is errelevent.
We are beyond waking up AMERICA and it is almost to late for ACTION. I find that a shocking number of people dont even vote anymore.
its easy to manipulate polls. all you need are those scientist who made up the global warming scam to tell more lies. by the way where's al gore???
The poll reflects the fact that government has not done anything the last six weeks! The POTUS now has a real checks and balance system in place with the Republicans in office and I suspect he will do well as long as he has a branch of government controlling the purse strings that he has no control over. I still say the economy will stay flat and unemployment will hover around 10% till 2012 and that will most likely be his undoing. Also, anytime the country has a tragedy like the on in AZ and the POTUS gives an impassioned speech, his rating always go up. Let's wait till the Spring and see what happens. Polls are rarely accurate during periods of political transition.
Hey Upper Class apologists who think the greedy rich can do no wrong while constanly whining about welfare cheats. IF someone from the Lower CLass can manage to rip off either the upper class or my govt. in any way, shape, or form, you have my complete and utter blessing. GO for it
AND if you get caught and put on trial I will LIE about my Robin Hood sympatheis to get on your jury. Two wrongs may not make a right, but what is good for the goose is good for the gander. What goes around comes around
It appears that the supporters of our President of Personal Enlightenment and Propaganda have overlooked the present Unemployment rate of approximately 9.5%. All the facial dressing and shifts mean nothing unless new private sector jobs are created. Obama and his staff who have never met a payroll in their life will have to deliver Job, jobs and more jobs before a short term bubble becomes reality. I'm betting on the GOP, not academia and expensive failed programs like Obama stimulus.
Republicans own some of that as well now that they own the house...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gA6_k3NtXZs&feature=player_embedded#!
Obama what are you hiding?
there is only one issue that can derail obama: the economy. if the economy continues to incrementally improve (and in reality, incrementally is the only way it will improve) he'll probably get a second term. all the other issues are a distant second. all the energy, opposition and rhetoric (civil or otherwise) that republicans will direct at his programs and policies over the next two years will mean little if independent voters feel that the economy is on the mend. i'll bet that there are a few GOP party faithful who drop to their knees every night and pray to jesus that the economy stays mired.
Obama's numbers went up after he gave everyone the extended tax cut. He showed that he could move to the middle with the majority of americans and away from his far left anti american crowd. He has cleaned out his staff and is being advised to go twords the middle if he and Machille want to keep taking air force one on there vacations. This is the same stratagy that Clinton used! As long as there is the republican house and hopefully senate in 2012 it does not matter if he gets elected or not they will keep him in check!!
It does appear that as Pres Obama discards more and more of the left, and adopts more GWB policies, his numbers increase.
Time will tell if this is an anomaly. The unemployment # needs to drop if he wants to be in the Oval for an additional term.
Since Steve Jobs is taking a leave -- can you imagine what would happen if Jobs hired a guy with no experience to run the day to day operations of Apple? I still can't believe America hired a guy with no experience to be President. What a joke.
If you could conceive and vote for GW, you should certainly be able to understand Obama....
And Obama's Mason / Illuminati ties are what exactly. Geithner on the Swiss List given to Wikileaks? No more conjecture in less than a month. Specifics instead! So here's one last conjecture to see if I am right. OODLES of Goldman Sachs Dudes will be on it. Paulson too!
If you have not heard "Obama is a Socialist" in a while...it's because you have not been listening. HE IS!
Wikileaks - truths only friend.Oh How Big Brother would like to do them in. They might even expose how the Big Banks are laundering a trilion in Narco Drug Lord money a year, the inference being drug addiction is good for the banks bottom line
This President has put forth more legislation and changes that matters to the average Joe, hard working American in 2 years than both Bush Presidencies combined! I know it's hard for you guys to stomach the courage and competency of the COMMANDER IN CHIEF AND PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES of AMERICA, but you'll be okay. He's only just begun and you will see the president invoke more executive orders to move America forward. No President is perfect and this one is able to admit mistakes, learn from them and continue to govern with intellect and wisdom beyond the emotions of the moment. God speed Mr. President!
Big Banks gave loans to people with good credit rating and who put 20% down, while simultaneously helping their companies to move their jobs overseas. A financial coup de tat called TARP was the exit strategy when the bubble burst
In totally simplified terms, I felt all along that something would unfold that has indeed unfolded. Obama inherited an unfathomabley difficult scenario when he was elected into power. Of course the first two years were nearly impossible....they would have been for anybody, and thus I am not surprised by the outcome of the last election and the GOP coming back into play as things were not moving along "fast enough". However, now things have shifted and Mr. Obama is finding the course that he deserved from the outset and the country is finding that he seems indeed to be a good leader. I feel that the GOP will be nothing but a stubborn obstacle for the next two years, intent on seeing him voted out of office in 2012. I would'nt be remotely surprised if this doesn'wind up backfiring on the GOP and that Mr. Obama is re-elected in 2012
Obama 2012!!
How much in toxic assets were purchased/ guaranteed from the Big Banks via TARP at undeflated prices. I heard 12 trillion. And the crap continues to deflate
If the Republicans want more favorable numbers in the Pools, they need to cut their ties to the Tea Party. As long as the GOP cowers before the Tea Party, they are going to pay a political price.
These polls reflect todays feelings. Many frustrated folks are beginning to sense the phoney futility of republican battle cries. Remember though, the democrats have not been very effective at squaring campaign promises with actions. Wouldn't read a lot of positive probability for either party based on what people feel two years out.