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Subscribe to RSSAre the political winds changing? … New NBC/WSJ poll has Obama approval at 53%... Also, 40% now label him a political moderate -- which is maybe why we haven’t heard “Obama is a socialist” in a while… But is this bump for Obama a transition or a transitory moment?... Poll also shows a short honeymoon for the GOP… Handicapping 2012… And polling birthright citizenship.
*** Are the political winds changing? Exactly two years ago today, Barack Obama was sworn in as the country’s 44th president -- a sign that the political winds were firmly at the Democratic Party’s back. Then, a year ago today, we had discovered the winds had shifted with the news that Scott Brown (R) had just captured Ted Kennedy’s old Senate seat, ending the Dems’ filibuster-proof majority. It began a slow descent for the Democrats and culminated with the November "shellacking." But are the political winds once again changing? After a stretch that included the bipartisan legislative achievements in the lame duck, mostly positive economic news, and Obama’s speech in Arizona come these numbers in the new NBC/WSJ poll: Obama’s approval is at 53% (where he hasn't been since before those summer town halls in ‘09, that's 18 months ago); confidence that the economy will improve in the next 12 months jumped eight points from last month; and the Dem Party’s fav/unfav went from a net negative (37%-41%) to a net positive (39%-35%). “The last six weeks have been the best six weeks the president has had in his first two years in office,” said NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D).
*** Maybe this is why we haven’t heard “Obama is a socialist” in a while: We’ll take it one step further: These might have been Obama’s best six weeks since Fall 2008. Indeed, the bump in Obama’s approval was across the board -- independents moved from 35% approval to 46%; Democrats went from 76% to 86%, and Republicans went from 11% to 15%. Perhaps the most surprising result in the poll? Try 40% labeling the president as a political moderate, compared with 45% who see him as a liberal and 11% who view him as a conservative. That moderate number is the highest for Obama in the NBC/WSJ poll, even higher than it was before his inauguration.
*** A transition or a transitory moment? But Hart and co-pollster Bill McInturff (R) say these poll numbers present this question for Obama, especially with the 2012 election on the horizon: Is this a transition, or is it a transitory moment? After all, Bill Clinton saw a bump after the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, but it lasted just a couple of months. (Of course, Clinton went on to easily win re-election.) And there are still plenty of warning signs for Obama and the Democrats. A majority (56%) thinks the county is on the wrong track; 50% disapprove of Obama's economic handling; and a combined 82% say the Afghanistan war has either gotten worse or stayed the same, and 71% believe the U.S. will ultimately have to withdraw and leave the country without a stable democratic government. Here’s one other way to look at Obama’s numbers: This might be a ceiling for him, at least in this current economic climate. If you’re not going to approve of his job after Arizona, then you aren’t going to approve of it later…
*** The GOP’s short honeymoon: But the bigger warning signs in the poll appear directed at the party that's been in control of the House for just two weeks. Only 25% say the Republicans in Congress will bring the right kind of change (versus 42% who said that about the Dems in Jan. 2007, and 37% who said that about the GOP in Jan. 1995). In addition, a majority (55%) believe congressional Republicans will be too inflexible in dealing with Obama, while an equal number (55%) say Obama will strike the right balance. And then there's this: The GOP's fav/unfav has gone from a net positive in December (38%-37%) to a net negative now (34%-40%). "I think this has been a pretty short Republican honeymoon," McInturff says. Hart adds, "I think the president has the benefit of the doubt, and the Republicans -- based on this data -- have the burden of proof."
*** Handicapping 2012: Looking ahead to the 2012 presidential race, the NBC/WSJ poll shows Obama leading Mike Huckabee by 10 points (51%-41%) and Newt Gingrich by 19 points (54%-35%). The December poll had him leading Mitt Romney by seven (47%-40%) and Sarah Palin by 22 (55%-33%). But keep in mind: At this stage of the 1996 cycle, McInturff says, Bob Dole was leading Bill Clinton in the NBC/WSJ poll. That tells us one of two things: Either these polls aren't that reliable this far out, or that Obama enters the 2012 in a much stronger position than Clinton did in '96. For the first time, our poll also handicapped the ’12 GOP field. Leading the pack are Romney (the first choice of 19% of Republicans and independents) and Huckabee (18%) -- followed by Palin (14%), Gingrich (10%), Ron Paul (8%), and Tim Pawlenty (at 5%). We also asked "second choice," and if you take Palin out, the person who benefits the most is Huckabee. He would lead a Palin-less GOP primary, not Romney. By the way, here’s another 2012 poll: Per Quinnipiac, 48% of Ohio voters say Obama deserves re-election, while 44% say he doesn’t. The president’s approval in the Buckeye State is 49%-46%.
*** Polling birthright citizenship: We’ll leave you with a final set of numbers from our NBC/WSJ poll. In it, 50% believe the U.S. should continue to grant citizenship to all children born in the country, including children of illegal immigrants. Yet 47% think this should be changed so children of illegal immigrants aren’t automatically granted citizenship. The divide breaks along party lines: 67% of Democrats want to continue granting automatic citizenship, while 69% of Republicans don’t. By the way, Hispanics support birthright citizenship by a nearly 80%-20% margin. Does this make the issue untouchable for Republican presidential candidates who think they might be the nominee?
Countdown Chicago’s mayoral election: 33 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 292 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 382 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up
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LouisJ
Excellent points, 1) GOP does ratchets up the rhetoric about the Chinese hypocrisy on human rights, the GOP continue to suppress the citizens of the United States by attempting to steal, kill and destroy theHCR that middle America so desperately needs. Can I say hypocrisyone more time? With hypocrisy I say, "Don't tread on me.
An example being the bomb planted during the Dr MLK parade which the media say hardly boo about. Hummm, seems raising hypocrisy raises violence . That's where Glenn Beck is from I think... just saying
2) The President doesn't need to prove squat. His polls do.
United We Stand, Divided We Fall
Wait for it...wait for it
Republican Sen Jim De mint, intends to introduce a bill next week that his spokesman says is "identical" to house-passed legislation that repeals the new health care law. Worse republicans say there's no timeline for their "replace" legislation.
If that’s the case, then the American people are waiting for more of the same, stalling and obstructionism in their continuous mantra of just saying “NO”, again, to the American people they so vowed to serve. The next slapdash step for the gop/ tb is to defund the new law of the land. Again another major hurdle to overcome which is what everything the republicans do for the people is insurmountable.
The first thing that seems noteworthy to me is to recognize how, unique and Fake republicans are. This momentous occasion i.e. “repeal and replace” is huge the gop/tea bagger so thinks. Suppose that Harry Reid does give them the vote? Only then will the gop/tb recognize just how paltry republican efforts to placate the tea baggers are. Considering the polls have shifted towards the new law of the land, the health care law, and the President’s favorably. It will require both houses to amass a two-thirds majority vote to overcome President Obama's veto.
Kept dreaming tea baggers cuz it ain’t gonna happen. The "identical" legislation republican sen Demint which says repeals the new health care law is the lacking substance. It’s another symbolic motion of none factual rivalry very much needed to placate the tea baggars. But, just imagine how stupid the republicans will look after they put the hammer down. The republicans will have to say--Sorry all the happy clappy talk we did failed. Humm, it indicates tea baggerswill have to admit republicans are NOT speaking for all the America people as House MinorityLeader John Boehnor claims. tea baggers represent less than 30% of American voters.
I wonder will John Boehnor still be happy with skin he's in?
How did Republicans manage to get it so wrong? They assumed that people wanted to see a newly elected President, "Mr. Hopeful," personally attacked from Day One. They thought it was good for the Republican Party if a Representative yelled at the President during his State of the Union speech. They thought it would be appealing to have Sarah Palin, a woman who quit her elected office in order to make money, as the face of the Republican Party. How did Republicans get it so wrong? Because their view of Americans is that we are basically a stupid, greedy, bigoted people. Well, those are sometimes elements of America, I grant you but, on the whole, I think we are much, much better than that. That's why people like President Obama, he appeals to our better angels.
Chris, it would appear obvious that one of the most "angry hate filled people" is you. Your post is full of slurs such as O'Bummer and left wing nut jobs. Name names to support your assertions. Our President's approval rating is good news, not only for the democrats. It could not possibly benefit the USA by having the rest of the world riding the back of headlines shouting out how disgruntled the American people are with the leader of our nation. I seem to recall in November how the Republicans were also preaching hope and change and, in the immortal (or should that be immoral) words of Sarah Palin, "how's that hope and change thing workin out for ya"?
Were you so worried about President George Bush when the rest of the world was riding the back of nuts like you who were calling for his hanging?....Hypocrite..Maybe you and your left wing loons can get another congressman shot, and bump up your hero's numbers a little higher...You people are so fake. You couldn't give a rats a** about your beloved Gabby. If she was a republican you would have been cheering. See you in 2012 for a real bloodbath.
Chris W. Your entire comment is disgusting. Blame liberals for the hate the middle east had for former President Bush--he was the one who invaded a country that was marginalized at best, liberals did not. No one, liberal or otherwise, would cheer the tragedy in Tucson. That you express the thought that liberals would have cheered if Giffords was a republican, tells me you cheered because she was a liberal. Outrageous and calous, I don't care what party someone represents, what happened was a tragedy. The fake ones are those like you who are filled contempt for anyone who has a different political view. I pitty such a narrow view of fellow Americans.
Internet tough guys are entertaining. Pay no mind to Chris -- he's harmless ... mostly.
I hope MSNBC keeps trying to spin Obama as being a nice Socialist. I think that they believe if the story is told enough times, people will actually start to believe it.
The truth is simple; Obozo is a one term Socialist President. He has spent us into debt so far it will take decades for us to get out of it. In the meantime, China becomes the economic leader of the world.
The only people who vote Democratic are drug addicts, illegal aliens, welfare recipients, rodeo clowns, bedwetters and idiots.
I’m proud to be one of the majority of people who support President Obama, who will be re-elected in 2012. The supporters of President Obama are smarter and we know that we have the real deal in office. So, may I suggest that perhaps you and many on the right could take some history and civics classes at their local community college. The classes aren’t that expensive and they could help open your eyes to the world around you.
As it stands now many on the right do show a lack of knowledge on a lot of subjects and education, in which your latest statement proves.
Job1. Me, too! I am proud of President Obama and he will win in 2012.
John YaYa. The hate of the right must be a heavy burden to carry.
My God this is worse than Nazi Germany's Goebbels. Gas over $3.00 a gallon.
Foreclosures at a record high, massive unemployment, democrats slaughtered
at the polls and his popularity is rising. BS, only State controlled NBC could come
up with this. Fool us once Obuma, not twice.
flyingskindog-
You think so.
Bush in office and losing 700,000 jobs a month, gas over $4.00 a gallon, foreclosures at a record high, losing 1.7 trillion Wall Street and need I still go on.
TRR...hey, check your facts, butthole. On Mondy morning and with only two years in office, Obama, a.k.a. the 'one who must be obeyed' watched the national debt go up from 8 trillion dollars to a whopping 14. 1 trillion dollars....um...in just two years....nice. Your man in the whitehouse is destroying the United States...utterly destroying our country. And you....why...you just keep blaming Bush.
As usual, the right ignores the massive national debt they created, then cry like babies because it was necessary to increase the debt because of the near-total economic collapse. Like it or not conservatives, the blame lies squarely on the shoulders of those who believed and touted that "deficits don't matter" while increasing the debt over and over beginning with Reagan increased 189%, Bush 41 increased 55% and Bush 43 increased 89%. Carter, 42% and Clinton 39%. GOP a total of 333% added to the debt; democrats, 81%. Those are facts not opinions. How sad, "deficits don't matter" when a republican is in power but woe is me when a democrat is President.
westernPA50-
I don't need to check my facts I lived through the facts just like everyone else!!!!
It will always be Bushes fault because he's the one that got us in this mess in the first place.....butthole!
Jody, Iowa-
They will always ignore the facts, even if you put it in front of them.
Oh so what - his poll numbers went up. He is an opportunistic pig. The tragedy in Tuscon.
So we argue right and left and the real game is being brokered in back-room deals as the middle class vanishes - god you people are stupid. It's a classic magic trick. Look at the pretty assistant while the real screwing is going on somewhere else.
wishfull thinking, Obama's change is only a dream and a lie.
Talk about caring for the American people.......ya know like waiving theirs rights so they can still get their goverment health care but at the same time repealing the HCR bill.
I make 34,000.00 a year and I still can't afford health care because I have a pre-existing condition known as cancer. It would cost me 1300.00 a month for health care. Now that's fine and all but that would leave me with 700.00 a month left to live on. Well I have my options I could go without food, medicine and all the others basic things you need to live everyday or I could pay for the health care and do without!
I know everyone will be saying oh feeling sorry for yourself.....no I still have a job and bring home a check every pay period and still can't afford insurance. That goes to show that something is WRONG!!!!!
Ah, another day, another bar-room brawl on FIRST READ. Some things never change no matter how tragic the consequences. The news cycle has moved on, Tucson is yesterday's news and while we continue to get updates on Gabby Giffords' amazing progress, we've forgotten the other victims and our outrage.
So, it's back to business as usual. Name calling, bickering, and so on.
I agree with the Congressman regarding the GOP. They have taken "the big lie" almost to the level of an art form. That's a fact, not a cheap shot. It's also a fact that the past master of "the big lie" was Joseph Goebbels, Hitler's information minister. Draw your on associations. I've been saying the same thing for over six months and I do not retract a single opinion although I do regret some of the language that I used.
The GOP needs to be honest with the American people. So do the Democrats.
WE ALL, each and every one of us, need to TONE IT DOWN. We need to restore civility to our discussions.
C'mon guys and gals, we can agree to disagree and have a civil discussion.
None of us wants another Tucson, or Oklahoma City, or Virginia Tech, or Columbine, or Edmond, OK Post Office massacre.
Back on topic, I have said this before and I will say it again. Barack Hussein Obama will go down in history as one of our greatest Presidents. The poll numbers simply reflect the public opinion pendulum swinging back where it belongs as they realize the President's true worth and the value of his work to make life better for ALL Americans.
They are beginning to see the GOP as the front for the wealthy and big business and they are beginning to reject them. The country went momentarily insane last Fall, everybody realizes it and most regret it.
But from that disaster and the mistakes the GOP will make in the next 24 months, our President will only grow stronger and more popular.
Unless, of course, the GOP suddenly remembers they work for the American people and start acting like it...Naaaaah that will never happen.
Obama/Biden 2012 For America
you're loony tunes..
dubb
No, just intelligent.
Well said, Skip. As for the conservative rebuttals, it is difficult to debate with those who refuse to hear let alone those who do not listen to the hate in their own words.
Thanks Jody, I believe it is incumbent on those of us with the ability to think independently without waiting to be told how to think by Beck and Limbaugh to try and enlighten our less fortunate brothers and sisters. I just don't think we do that by continually hitting them over the head with their own ignorance.
We've all tried that and it just makes them more stupid and more obstinant. We've got to try reason and civility. I think the President has shown us the way. I applaud his restraint and his continueing efforts to reach across the ailse. I think we should all be doing more of that.
Spineless, wishy-washy hypocrit.
That's really no way to talk about the Speaker of the House. If you can't respect the man, at least respect the position.
Wow a 'moderate"!@! Who would have thunk it! I would suggest that yall remove FELONS from your "polls".
Most of them cannot vote.
Oh, you mean like Tom Delay? He's appealing his conviction. I think he can still vote.
Another day same people same drivel.
“Obooboo is a socialist” There, you heard it. Nothing has changed with him.. He is still the same.. I'm looking forward to the day that I can take part in voting his ignorant SOCIALIST butt out of office in 2012..
obooboo? do you believe obama to be a "monkey pruning a tree"? you are funny!!!!
Sounds like a good analogy to me.. Except for those Texas sized ears he's got..
Ah, good to know racism is still rampant amongst the supporters of the GOP. Thanks for reminding us Kbub.
I don't care about the conversations, quotas, polls, percentages,etc. I am never voting Democrat again!!
republican/Libertarian only i'll check out Sarah Palin and/or Ron Paul, unless the "Libby's" come up w/a winner!
John Boehner has re-earned my respect, even though he is dating the Marlboro man(smokes cigarettes) which i do think is a bit of a disgusting habit.
Of course Obama's ratings are improving. After his party got thumped in the past election for their radical left agenda, he has been coming back to the middle and finally recognized the solutions to America's problems are in the middle. Though Pelosi and Reid are still out in left field, I expect Obama to be more receptive to Republican solutions for the final two years of his presidency.
Now that the Republicans have a majority in the House and the Senate majority is up for grabs in 2012 you will see the winds coming from all directions. When the political pundits face their end of possible life in politics they will be scrambling to stay viable in the eyes of the voters.
Polls only tell us how American's are feeling at the moment. Events could change this in the next hour. The political winds change as quickly as a new spin doctor figures a way to tell the American voters what they want to hear. The Tea Party movement was last year's flavor. Most people in the USA believe in fairness and what they actually understand of the Constitution. They only become mean and vindictive when they feel someone is threatening them or taking something away from them. It's not the illegal immigrants or gays who are ruining this country, it is those who can buy political influence enough so they can rob Americans blind and, not only get away with it, but derive some financial benefit from it (and no incarceration) after their crimes have been committed. The biggest threat in this country is that all we have will be sold to the highest bidder by those who believe they are above the law.
It looks like taking a lot of vacations to rest up from the other vacations get great job approval ratings. Good thing he has the teleprompter and writers.
You do realize that George Armstrong Custer had syphilus (sp?)and was a genocidal maniac, don't you? He is also regarded a military ignoramus who violated the greatest single rule in military strategy, 'never divide your command in the face of an enemy of unknown strength'. The man was a grand-standing fool who nearly got his entire command wiped out.
You might want to reconsider your blog moniker....uh, no wait, it fits. Never mind.
Only through the eyes of the Liberal press and their carefully worded opinion polls "Are the political winds changing for Obama." They would never consider the fact that the reason for optimism might be the result of the huge Democrat defeat and the fact the Dems hadn't screwed anything up during the Christmas/New Year break break, I guess I should have said Holiday to be PC, and a pick-up of a few points from GLBT section of the Party. Soon President Obama, Harry, and Nancy will be putting their foots in their mouths again as they have over the past two years.
Dan,
Wow, very difficult to read your post, you are illiterate. How do you ever read a ballot to vote?
Oh, I forgot, you wait to be told how to vote by Rush Limbaugh and your GOP masters. Sorry, I forgot.
I'm surprised they let you use a computer....you know...considering where you are and all.
*** Polling birthright citizenship:
Just a thought on birthrigh/ illegal parents… consider permanent residents card ( green card ) to them all instead of citizenship, making each person "earn" their residency in the US, renewal every 5 years depending on their credentials/behaviour.
Politics will never change until we put a cap on how long anyone can be in the service of the public in an elected position. This doesn't go for government employees, its more for the elected and non-elected officials. I'd say give them a max of 20 years to make their mark in our Politcal arenas, if they don't make it to the top then they have failed, good riddance. The idea is to make sure these people have actually gotten or will get their hands dirty by working with the REAL AMERICANS. For sitting behind a public office desk for 40 years tends to make you immune to what the rest Americans have to deal with in their daily lives. If given government office term limits I think we will balance out the system a little better, forcing dumbasses who can't even turn a screwdriver or change a diaper, to get their hands dirty with REAL WORK. And no I don't mean working hard by running the business that is your father or grandfathers' legacy, or by prancing around hollywood big screens in your underwear. Give me real men, real hardcore women, none of this high-society prep-school ivy league favor of circles nonsense we see from so many of today's most influential people. Our apologies if many of us weren't fed with a silver spoon from the day we were born, but I tell you what, the rest of us will probably do a better job in office than anyone who has indeed been given life on a sliver platter or gained popularity due to their looks or ability to lure audiences to the box office. I can almost guarantee that.
I think it doesn't matter which of the parties is in office they just are not working for a govenment of the people, by the people so why not get some other parties in the top two???
.
Perry cut jobs and pay in Texas with a sweeping budget cuts to state agencies...That means less probation officers and pardon and parole officers and jail time for those convicted....like Tom Delay
Closing down schools and cutting student loans and grants Teachers will be fired in the job killing budget cuts . but the rich got a huge tax break ..that will keep up with china in there technology i guess we can sell the capital like arizona since perry has run a 30 billion dollar debt in the last ten years..what happened to vote out the incumbants baggers this one spends far worse than Dubya ever did
Maybe people are finally realizing that we're not turning into Soviet-era Russia or Nazi-era Germany. Maybe people are finally learning to think for themselves and not believe all the rhetoric coming from both sides.
Maybe people are realizing arguing over the internet is not fixing our country's problems.