E-mail updates
Follow on Twitter
Subscribe to RSSAre the political winds changing? … New NBC/WSJ poll has Obama approval at 53%... Also, 40% now label him a political moderate -- which is maybe why we haven’t heard “Obama is a socialist” in a while… But is this bump for Obama a transition or a transitory moment?... Poll also shows a short honeymoon for the GOP… Handicapping 2012… And polling birthright citizenship.
*** Are the political winds changing? Exactly two years ago today, Barack Obama was sworn in as the country’s 44th president -- a sign that the political winds were firmly at the Democratic Party’s back. Then, a year ago today, we had discovered the winds had shifted with the news that Scott Brown (R) had just captured Ted Kennedy’s old Senate seat, ending the Dems’ filibuster-proof majority. It began a slow descent for the Democrats and culminated with the November "shellacking." But are the political winds once again changing? After a stretch that included the bipartisan legislative achievements in the lame duck, mostly positive economic news, and Obama’s speech in Arizona come these numbers in the new NBC/WSJ poll: Obama’s approval is at 53% (where he hasn't been since before those summer town halls in ‘09, that's 18 months ago); confidence that the economy will improve in the next 12 months jumped eight points from last month; and the Dem Party’s fav/unfav went from a net negative (37%-41%) to a net positive (39%-35%). “The last six weeks have been the best six weeks the president has had in his first two years in office,” said NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D).
*** Maybe this is why we haven’t heard “Obama is a socialist” in a while: We’ll take it one step further: These might have been Obama’s best six weeks since Fall 2008. Indeed, the bump in Obama’s approval was across the board -- independents moved from 35% approval to 46%; Democrats went from 76% to 86%, and Republicans went from 11% to 15%. Perhaps the most surprising result in the poll? Try 40% labeling the president as a political moderate, compared with 45% who see him as a liberal and 11% who view him as a conservative. That moderate number is the highest for Obama in the NBC/WSJ poll, even higher than it was before his inauguration.
*** A transition or a transitory moment? But Hart and co-pollster Bill McInturff (R) say these poll numbers present this question for Obama, especially with the 2012 election on the horizon: Is this a transition, or is it a transitory moment? After all, Bill Clinton saw a bump after the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, but it lasted just a couple of months. (Of course, Clinton went on to easily win re-election.) And there are still plenty of warning signs for Obama and the Democrats. A majority (56%) thinks the county is on the wrong track; 50% disapprove of Obama's economic handling; and a combined 82% say the Afghanistan war has either gotten worse or stayed the same, and 71% believe the U.S. will ultimately have to withdraw and leave the country without a stable democratic government. Here’s one other way to look at Obama’s numbers: This might be a ceiling for him, at least in this current economic climate. If you’re not going to approve of his job after Arizona, then you aren’t going to approve of it later…
*** The GOP’s short honeymoon: But the bigger warning signs in the poll appear directed at the party that's been in control of the House for just two weeks. Only 25% say the Republicans in Congress will bring the right kind of change (versus 42% who said that about the Dems in Jan. 2007, and 37% who said that about the GOP in Jan. 1995). In addition, a majority (55%) believe congressional Republicans will be too inflexible in dealing with Obama, while an equal number (55%) say Obama will strike the right balance. And then there's this: The GOP's fav/unfav has gone from a net positive in December (38%-37%) to a net negative now (34%-40%). "I think this has been a pretty short Republican honeymoon," McInturff says. Hart adds, "I think the president has the benefit of the doubt, and the Republicans -- based on this data -- have the burden of proof."
*** Handicapping 2012: Looking ahead to the 2012 presidential race, the NBC/WSJ poll shows Obama leading Mike Huckabee by 10 points (51%-41%) and Newt Gingrich by 19 points (54%-35%). The December poll had him leading Mitt Romney by seven (47%-40%) and Sarah Palin by 22 (55%-33%). But keep in mind: At this stage of the 1996 cycle, McInturff says, Bob Dole was leading Bill Clinton in the NBC/WSJ poll. That tells us one of two things: Either these polls aren't that reliable this far out, or that Obama enters the 2012 in a much stronger position than Clinton did in '96. For the first time, our poll also handicapped the ’12 GOP field. Leading the pack are Romney (the first choice of 19% of Republicans and independents) and Huckabee (18%) -- followed by Palin (14%), Gingrich (10%), Ron Paul (8%), and Tim Pawlenty (at 5%). We also asked "second choice," and if you take Palin out, the person who benefits the most is Huckabee. He would lead a Palin-less GOP primary, not Romney. By the way, here’s another 2012 poll: Per Quinnipiac, 48% of Ohio voters say Obama deserves re-election, while 44% say he doesn’t. The president’s approval in the Buckeye State is 49%-46%.
*** Polling birthright citizenship: We’ll leave you with a final set of numbers from our NBC/WSJ poll. In it, 50% believe the U.S. should continue to grant citizenship to all children born in the country, including children of illegal immigrants. Yet 47% think this should be changed so children of illegal immigrants aren’t automatically granted citizenship. The divide breaks along party lines: 67% of Democrats want to continue granting automatic citizenship, while 69% of Republicans don’t. By the way, Hispanics support birthright citizenship by a nearly 80%-20% margin. Does this make the issue untouchable for Republican presidential candidates who think they might be the nominee?
Countdown Chicago’s mayoral election: 33 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 292 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 382 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter.
Leave a Comment:
All you Beck wannabes had to do to maintain your idea of utopia was nominate someone that was electable!
If McCain and sister Palin was the best you could come up with, you have yourselves only to blame!!
Two years are a long time but so far I don't see anyone on the right that will compete with the President in 2012.
Should be interesting if not comical!
I see alot of interesting comments. Oddly I had a conversation with my father this weekend. He has been a life long Dem. Oddly he says he is supporting the Reps now. When I asked him what the repubs were offering that would create such a drastic change he could not point out one bill or idea that he supported. He did say that he was all for the health-care bill because as a small business owner with a older staff he can now afford to insure all 17 of his staff. He told me that he would have been taxed to death if the bush tax cuts had not been renewed. The whole odd part of this is that when I asked him if he had read any of the bills that were passed that he was against, he said no. So when I read through the comments here I wonder if even 5% of the commenter's have taken the time to read the bills or have they got all the information from the "News" Channels that seem to report all opinion and not much in fact.
I have read through the Health care bill myself and the revisions. What I see is that they cut out so much that its barely a change but some progress is better than none. I would love to see someone point out what exact items in the bill is going to cause all the harm the talking heads are suggesting.
Send your father to this site: http://healthreform.kff.org/timeline.aspx
Yeah, I'd say the political winds are changing. The worst House election defeat in 72 years, and the wind hasn't even reached tropical storm intensity yet.
The "storms" path is unpredictable and I see it changing direction already!
Two weeks of Republican control of the house and many already have buyers remorse.
The eye of the storm looks pretty weak to me, and I'm not talking about Obama's weight. He needs to see a doctor, a bag of bones.
In all seriousness if your "name" is accurate I wish you success in finding the employment you desire.
I've worked several temp and contract jobs the last two years but finally found something permanent.
This has been a difficult period regardless of which political stripe you wear.
Best,
Thanks, but I have been doing just fine the last two years with also temporary, contract jobs in three different states. Just accepted a temporary to permanent job.
53% for Mr. Obama?
By who's count? Maybe, more like 1/2 of that! What is this announcement, reverse thought engineering 101? - Maybe, the reality that is changing is more like the calm before the storm or like changing a baby's diaper after it's full of something like this article? After the botched bailouts, the bungled & biased health care fiasco, he's at 53%? Maybe, by someones wishful thinking is all? I personally don't think he's anywhere close in reality to that amount.
The pitfall is that the Republicans logic isn't any better than the Democrats. If Mr. Obama's rating is that high, why do I hear talk of revolution of one sort or the other from some?
We desperately do need representatives that represent all of the people & not just that of corporate concerns. Right now, not many politicians of any persuasion fit that perception in the eyes of the common person that I know of.
Right now, Mr. Obama doesn't truely represent all peoples needs when his eyes are looking at our concerns from behind rose colored glasses, supplied to him by big business & not towards the concerns or needs of the average person that helped to elect him. He's acting like not much more than a puppet of corporate concerns. He's neglected & forsaken the common people who he's supposed to represent by good leadership. He basically lacks the good common sense to tell the difference between reality & fiction presented to him by his advisers. With those kinds of problems he rates in at 53%? Not in my math book. Putting the cart in front of the horse again doesn't work too well for the pershible cargo in the cart. So much for the dyslexic moves he's shown us so far? Story problems are not his stong suit?
The overly biased & botched quagmire of current societies political system tied into big business gone astray has turned many people against themselves & it's leadership. Fortunately for us, it's not against this country itself or against it's principles. But, just against it's currently lopsided ignorant leadership.
Mr. Obama is not a true leader of people to me. He's more like a speaker, a spokesperson on a rigged game show that most are tired of watching nothing but reruns of. So, how does that merit 53%? Just another rigged game show by both sides with no one winning anything but the ones pulling the strings? Too bad they may find out soon that leaders w/o followers are the leaders of none but themselves? The reality is that no one wins anything but fabrications when the real truth is hidden from view or distorted.
This President is just another Ideological political pundit for more of the same we have had for years with a socialist twist, The fed has got to him just like they have the rest of them.big oil, corporations and the rich, He is just a different flavor.
Yes, towad cawtoon dictatowship.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v34hQQz7GvY
obooboo will be tossed in the scrap heap where he belongs in 2012.. No doubt about it... He is just as lame as the wishful thinking that is coming from msnbc and the rest of the lame stream media..
You use Palinisms. How quaint.
Time to pop some popcorn and watch the GOP self-destruct. This should be entertaining.
Better use microwave popcorn. This looks like it's gonna happen very fast.
JoAnnaSmith1 - I'l love to log in one single day wthout your lies, filth and hatred spamming up the newsvine. Can you please stuff a sock in it, even if for only one day?
The winds are definitely changing, they are blowing more to the right! ( remember the mid-terms) As usual MSMNC shares liberal pipedreams, and calls them polls!
Can someone send me a picture of Obama without that arrogant, smug, condescending look on his puss? This guy does nothing but look down his nose at people.
Are you sure you aren't projecting your own inferiority complex?
Nah, just look at every picture the clown takes. Look at the picture that accompanies this article (I think from his 400th party at the Red House last night). Can some one send me just one that doesn't have that "I am so better that all of you" look on his face? Just one.
MJJ- Why such a mean vitriol laden and hurtful response? I thought you libs were going to tone down the nastiness!
I think Soupy55 wants one where the President isn't black...
i think so..Correct me if im wrong,but didnt bush have the most anoying face uve ever seen? and it wasnt that he was looking down on people because he was a dummy,but thats just the stupid looking face he was born with.
I sure hope that when Comcast takes over NBC and MSNBC that they get rid of these Obama political hacks posing as journalists.
yeah and you guys dont want a dictator hmmmm - just insurance co. big busness and someone who sees everything your way
You must be pretty scared of MSNBC to say something like that.
but GLEN BECK is a journalist??? i wonder how u people dont fall down when you walk cuz it seems like theres no brain in your heads..smh.Wait hes a preacher,no hes a journalist,no hes a motivational speaker,i give up...Hes everything..wow.
Quincy NY
you should see the scabs on their knuckles! ha
At some point a lot more persons are going to figure out our president is a moderate and support him. The problem he has had the last couple years are the Republicans aren't Republicans in the traditional sense. They are the ultra conservatives that do nothing but obstruct. They got their watered down healthcare plan and now say let's repeal it. LOL. This is billions of dollars for their corporate friends in healthcare industries from new patients. Does anyone really believe they are gonna repeal this. They only want to gut more of your rights. They got their tax breaks for the richest in America while holding unemployment hostage. The economy is starting to do better now and the only real change was the elimination of mostly a bunch of republican district Dems who came into office under the anti Bush rhetoric in the last Presidential election. If these obstructionists get their way, we won't see much done this next term, because they want to install another Bush clone. Hopefully there will be enough informed persons voting to send them home to collect their unemployment checks provided congress has funded it, which if it were up to them they would not receive this. What we need is more moderates Dem or Republican.
Hahahaha,,,,,,,It seems Republicans are falling all over themselves to come up with something to explain why, I've seen every BS talking point FOX has spouted in this discussion,,,,,,,Simply put, Enough Americans are now seeing the truth and benefiting from what Obama has done over the past two years that nothing FOX says will matter now.
Chuck Todd, a fake Democrat Commentator ? Obama is revived because of Tucson ? Funny thing, I he still suing Arizona ? The left wing media, NBC, CNN, CBS. Makes up their own stories and omits the truth.
And fox tells the truth..Thats a refreshing thought,if that along with unicorns,elfs,leprachauns and world peace were true all would be well
The pubs platform at the last election was JOBS. Now that they are elected jobs are a non issue to them. People are starting to wise up to to their tactics...which is fear and lies.
It would appear the MSNBC journalists are looking for anything to show that Obama's support is improving! The economy is still sour and likely will get worse, our debt continues to multiply on the way to bankruptcy ($14 Trillion on the books and another $80+ Trillion in unfunded mandates, ie SS, Medicaid, Medicare etc) and we haven't yet seen what ObamaCare will do. Don't expect either party to show any advance or decline if conditions stay the same or improve slightly, but do expexct the Democrats to drop significantly if the economy or foreign relations take a hit. Basically this article is wishful thinking from the network of Soros and Socialists and will most probably be propagandized by the like of Mathews, Schultz, Maddow and Olbermann.
Because thats what they are interested in slim.I dont understand how you people dont see that.I guess when you want to believe in something you will do so at all costs.What was the explanation for them not voting to pass the 9/11 fund,that we all as americans,and people around the world(excluding the people responsible for the attacks) agree was horrible,and those people gave their lives to help with the clean up and the republicans didnt vote to pass it because their rich buddies couldnt get their tax cuts.This health care repeal is the same old nonesense over and over again..They disguise and mask it as if theyre doing it for the good of the people,but they arent,theyre doing it for the ceo's of cigna and all the other ceo's. And u blind people just sit there and swallow it up.I swear i never thought that people with supposedly functioning brains would be smarter.
Put aside party politics and all that stuff..But the simplest for of education would beg to differ when people mock the msnbc staff as fake journalists and the ones who distort the truth,but FOX with their lunatics like beck,hannity,oreily,limbaugh and the rest of those wackos are the ones that are telling the truth and setting the american people straight? It was glen beck correct me if im wrong that said that guy who lost his house after it burned down because he didnt pay the $60 tax to his county and had the fire department sit there and watch it burn to the ground,hes the truth and voice of reason? What happened to civility and compassion? What is it like to listen and believe a lie even though you know its a LIE? what does that feel like?
I wonder,and ive wondered about this for a while,but how do the rep/teacups go home and sleep at night? I wonder what kind of nightmares they have.
The only change in political winds is anger that started with white males in their 50s who want to "take back their country" to earlier times when things benefited them more (think Mad Men, or alpha baboons in Dr. Sapolsky's book). Nonetheless, the country is changing and there is nothing that will stop that change in the years ahead.
While fear-mongering politics (and talk radio) appeal to the conservative nature of people, it is not to say the country is becoming more conservative. If voting was mandatory, we would see that conservatives are just more vocal, and especially older Americans who are more likely to vote.
If President Obama is no longer being called a socialist, it may be because people are beginning to realize that right-wing plutocrats are the real threat. Likewise, the GOP's short honeymoon may be due to people realizing that Republicans don't really have a clue how to govern. The Tea Party candidates are even more disappointing since they all have lobbyists as their chief of staff now.
We are still waiting for Republicans to unveil their "replace" solutions in their grandstand gimmick to repeal health insurance reform. And we're still waiting to learn how Teapublicans plan to balance the budget. We haven't heard anything credible about job creation.
Even Ben Stein says it isn't possible to reduce deficits with spending cuts, and feels the rich should be paying more taxes right now. An interesting thing Ben Stein said today is that other than the oil industry, the rich are Democrats and he can't understand why Republicans are hell bent of continuing tax breaks for these folks.
Are most of you asleep at the switch? Neither the president, his cabinet, or either house of congress makes any real decisions in our country; they are all made by the crooks at the private corporation we call the federal reserve since 1913, and by the big money in banking/investments, like JP Morgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs. Btw can anyone tell me how a private corporation has their own federal police force? The federal reserve has theirs...over a thousand federal police employed by a private corp; how did that work out?
Let me suggest a number of things Chuck todd et al have not touched on. First Obama came to office an unknown, compared withmost candidates. Kennedy had runbrriefleyfor Vice president and had a 4 year buildup in the media, Johnson and Humphrey had been inwashington for decades, so had Nixon. Whenyou look beyond that McGovern,Carter,Reagan were outsiders who won under special circumstances. Reagan under the Hostage crisis which hallmarked the loss of American power in the world.
Obama won because John McCain was in articulate and had no real sense of vision about the financial crisis and he said as much in his second debate with Obama. Tina Fey' swicked parodies of Sarh Palin destroyedPalin's credibilty-and she never regained it-even now. But there was no real serching examination of Obama.
For the past 2 years, themedia have treated Obama's opponents better than Obama. Why is is that night after night they carry breatheless accounts of Tea pary rallies yet fail to tell the stroiesof people affected by heal h care problems. It was PBS,not NBC that first spoligted the problems of lack of primary care doctors in Massachusetts. And it never put the storyan annational perspective--what would this mean nationwide? How many new doctors would be necessary? Even today there are almost no stories of the cost differential among states-something Hillaryclintonfirst spotlighted years ago in a series of health care speeches. the media never followed up on that..
Why? they prefer the story line of "let's you and him fight". Everything is cast inthat mode. And because thenarative or conflict has sort of a david and goliath quality They beat up on Obama for 2 years.
Here a question they never asked: the Democrats historically have been against Wall Street. Why didn't the picth fork and tar" erm crowd side with the Democrats and endorse Obama's reforms. By all rights they should have been folowing Tom Harkin of Iowa and the prairie popluists. The reason is simple: Obama had no roots with them and he was not a populist and his record inthesenate wasn't much to cheer about. When Obma was inthe Senate and cutting creditcard rates came up in the backruptcy bill-Obama voted no.
Obama was not a populist. More to the point: Obama was not keen on health care:He was thelast ofall Decratic contenders to annouce any postionon health care, and even Mitt Romeny's position on indiviual mandates went far beyond Obama's stands. Obama always took the least objectionable plan, imagining some Kumbya moment down the road. The only reason he embraced health care at all was to outflank Hillary Clinton the party's leading expert. The irony is that it happened at all.
Obma is not a conflict person. He does not use thebully puplit well. Teddy rooselvet and Farlin Roosevelt and Harry Truman and JFK would have hung the Republican feet to thee fire on pre-existing conditions. they would have billboarded it and drawn lines in the sand. Obma does nothing. Modale would nave asked "where's the beef"?. To date Obama hasn't 1)drawen a definable contrast 2) forced the repuplicansto make hard decision about health care. He's never said 75% of all healthcare dollars are spent in the last 6 months of life: showme what you would cut. In short he's never put the mokey on their back, and until he does he won't be d a definitive President.
Why? Because you cannot leave health care hanging half funded and defunded that's why.It will be a dust bin of history exercise. Does Obama really want to shrug his shoulders ansay "well we tried'?
Obma'sreal storyline now is he has to take the fight tothe counrty. He has almost no choice
The defining moment lies ahead,no tbehind
Obama has let the storyline dift and wander. He let Congress call the shots-and lookwhere it go him.Leaders have to lead-they have to cal the shots. Obama hasn't done that.
If he defines the moment-he-not Congress will be the hero-just like Rooselvet-and perhaps greater. But hemust get over his fearof conflict real fast to do so.
Gee-buyer's remorse already! What a surprise! It will get worse-lots worse when people see what the Republicans do. They got in because they held up government. If a tax deal had been done before Election Day-they would still be on the bench. They can't deliver because they have nothing to deliver. 2012 will see them right back out the door if the economy improves at all.
Politics, they say, is like horse-racing, a game for the rich and for the odds-makers, not the hoi-polloi.
All you and I need worry about is a Homeland Ton-Ton knock on the door and rendition to foreign torture.
$63 BILLION DOLLAR A YEAR DHS Launches Takeover Of Hotels, Malls & Sports Stadiums
Homeland Ton-Ton Death Squads prepare to entrench total occupation of America as Commissar's patrol streets of 'See Something, Say Something'
Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet.com
Thursday, January 20, 2011