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Subscribe to RSSAre the political winds changing? … New NBC/WSJ poll has Obama approval at 53%... Also, 40% now label him a political moderate -- which is maybe why we haven’t heard “Obama is a socialist” in a while… But is this bump for Obama a transition or a transitory moment?... Poll also shows a short honeymoon for the GOP… Handicapping 2012… And polling birthright citizenship.
*** Are the political winds changing? Exactly two years ago today, Barack Obama was sworn in as the country’s 44th president -- a sign that the political winds were firmly at the Democratic Party’s back. Then, a year ago today, we had discovered the winds had shifted with the news that Scott Brown (R) had just captured Ted Kennedy’s old Senate seat, ending the Dems’ filibuster-proof majority. It began a slow descent for the Democrats and culminated with the November "shellacking." But are the political winds once again changing? After a stretch that included the bipartisan legislative achievements in the lame duck, mostly positive economic news, and Obama’s speech in Arizona come these numbers in the new NBC/WSJ poll: Obama’s approval is at 53% (where he hasn't been since before those summer town halls in ‘09, that's 18 months ago); confidence that the economy will improve in the next 12 months jumped eight points from last month; and the Dem Party’s fav/unfav went from a net negative (37%-41%) to a net positive (39%-35%). “The last six weeks have been the best six weeks the president has had in his first two years in office,” said NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D).
*** Maybe this is why we haven’t heard “Obama is a socialist” in a while: We’ll take it one step further: These might have been Obama’s best six weeks since Fall 2008. Indeed, the bump in Obama’s approval was across the board -- independents moved from 35% approval to 46%; Democrats went from 76% to 86%, and Republicans went from 11% to 15%. Perhaps the most surprising result in the poll? Try 40% labeling the president as a political moderate, compared with 45% who see him as a liberal and 11% who view him as a conservative. That moderate number is the highest for Obama in the NBC/WSJ poll, even higher than it was before his inauguration.
*** A transition or a transitory moment? But Hart and co-pollster Bill McInturff (R) say these poll numbers present this question for Obama, especially with the 2012 election on the horizon: Is this a transition, or is it a transitory moment? After all, Bill Clinton saw a bump after the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, but it lasted just a couple of months. (Of course, Clinton went on to easily win re-election.) And there are still plenty of warning signs for Obama and the Democrats. A majority (56%) thinks the county is on the wrong track; 50% disapprove of Obama's economic handling; and a combined 82% say the Afghanistan war has either gotten worse or stayed the same, and 71% believe the U.S. will ultimately have to withdraw and leave the country without a stable democratic government. Here’s one other way to look at Obama’s numbers: This might be a ceiling for him, at least in this current economic climate. If you’re not going to approve of his job after Arizona, then you aren’t going to approve of it later…
*** The GOP’s short honeymoon: But the bigger warning signs in the poll appear directed at the party that's been in control of the House for just two weeks. Only 25% say the Republicans in Congress will bring the right kind of change (versus 42% who said that about the Dems in Jan. 2007, and 37% who said that about the GOP in Jan. 1995). In addition, a majority (55%) believe congressional Republicans will be too inflexible in dealing with Obama, while an equal number (55%) say Obama will strike the right balance. And then there's this: The GOP's fav/unfav has gone from a net positive in December (38%-37%) to a net negative now (34%-40%). "I think this has been a pretty short Republican honeymoon," McInturff says. Hart adds, "I think the president has the benefit of the doubt, and the Republicans -- based on this data -- have the burden of proof."
*** Handicapping 2012: Looking ahead to the 2012 presidential race, the NBC/WSJ poll shows Obama leading Mike Huckabee by 10 points (51%-41%) and Newt Gingrich by 19 points (54%-35%). The December poll had him leading Mitt Romney by seven (47%-40%) and Sarah Palin by 22 (55%-33%). But keep in mind: At this stage of the 1996 cycle, McInturff says, Bob Dole was leading Bill Clinton in the NBC/WSJ poll. That tells us one of two things: Either these polls aren't that reliable this far out, or that Obama enters the 2012 in a much stronger position than Clinton did in '96. For the first time, our poll also handicapped the ’12 GOP field. Leading the pack are Romney (the first choice of 19% of Republicans and independents) and Huckabee (18%) -- followed by Palin (14%), Gingrich (10%), Ron Paul (8%), and Tim Pawlenty (at 5%). We also asked "second choice," and if you take Palin out, the person who benefits the most is Huckabee. He would lead a Palin-less GOP primary, not Romney. By the way, here’s another 2012 poll: Per Quinnipiac, 48% of Ohio voters say Obama deserves re-election, while 44% say he doesn’t. The president’s approval in the Buckeye State is 49%-46%.
*** Polling birthright citizenship: We’ll leave you with a final set of numbers from our NBC/WSJ poll. In it, 50% believe the U.S. should continue to grant citizenship to all children born in the country, including children of illegal immigrants. Yet 47% think this should be changed so children of illegal immigrants aren’t automatically granted citizenship. The divide breaks along party lines: 67% of Democrats want to continue granting automatic citizenship, while 69% of Republicans don’t. By the way, Hispanics support birthright citizenship by a nearly 80%-20% margin. Does this make the issue untouchable for Republican presidential candidates who think they might be the nominee?
Countdown Chicago’s mayoral election: 33 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 292 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 382 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up
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The Faux News Network at it again. Trying to put lipstick on this pig.
No kidding. This is a "beam me up Scotty" situation. There's hardly anyone here to have an intelligent discussion with, and I've had some good ones with conservatives on this site. The Bash Obama Brigade is out in full force. Seems to happen every time things don't go their way.
I flipped back and forth to Fox & Friends this morning, to see how they could put a spin on the awful news for the Republicans (and the positive for the Democrats.) They handled it by not mentioning politics. They focused instead on how Michelle Obama is forcing Wal-Mart to take away our freedoms by carrrying healthy food.
They did make a half-hearted effort to attack their favorite demoness Nancy Pelosi, for agreeing with most economists that Obama prevented a Second Great Depression. but even they didn't seem too into it.
lol clotho..What are you gonna do?What do kids do when they're bored? they throw stuff
Quincy NY
So do monkeys! Not sure I am noticing a difference between them right now!
I don't believe this poll for one second. The left is still at it. (lying) We shall see what happens in 2012.
So, kind of the text-based version of putting your fingers in your ears and shouting "Lalalala"?
I'll give the president credit for confirming his low opinion of the american voter as he orders a review of regulations that may hurt business and then says ..... do not review regulations from obamacare or Dodd financial reform bill, oh no don't touch my agenda! Why doesn't he just come out and call voters stupid? MSNBC had no coverage of this, hummmmmmmmmm!
he doesnt have to call voters stupid..You who sit and gobble up fox already that yourself...it would be a waste of time,its like telling the kettle its bottom is black.
What hypocrites: the Chinese are holding the 2010 Nobel peace prize winner prisoner, and two Nobel winners attend this dinner! Jimmy Carter and the 2009 winner who is Hu's admirer!
boy, do you think they care about human rights? or just money? do you think the demonrats will care about Israel after Hamas takes over?
And you want these people running our destiny! just move to China, and you can have what you want tomorrow.
55% of americans want obamacare repealed,,i think the same 55% want obama repealed also
What hypocrites: the Chinese are holding the 2010 Nobel peace prize winner prisoner, and two Nobel winners attend this dinner! Jimmy Carter and the 2009 winner who is Hu's admirer!
boy, do you think they care about human rights? or just money? do you think the demonrats will care about Israel after Hamas takes over?
And you want these people running our destiny! just move to China, and you can have what you want tomorrow.
Let's not forget that every reigning party suffers a downturn in the mid-term election. The GOP spun that to be a "mandate from the people" which is of course a complete lie. The polls support that. Yes, people are dissatisfied with Washington - all of Washington! Next election, write in a vote for your minister and someone not aligned with either political party. The GOP cares about the GOP and the Democrats care about the Dems. None of them give a hoot about the people they are supposed to represent.
These Polls were taken in Harlem, and the South Side of Chicago.Suprised they are not higher.....
2 years to go ,and the Lies are just begenning .They will get a lot better before election...
So, you're saying that the poll only surveyed African Americans? REALLY dumb comment. I won't ask how you celebrated King Day this week.
So since NBC/WSJ did a poll we are all supposed to believe the numbers? I asked 20 people today about what they thought about obama, and they stated they didn't like him (among other things). So does that put his approval rating at 0?
The political climate is in a state of uncertainty at the moment-the new Congress just started working and the full effect of rezoning hasn't been realized yet. But, with Obama's stroking of the Chinese leadership this last week really shows the two-faced nature of Obama, the issues with restricting energy production and costs, the increasing presence of inflation, and the increased costs of health care to individuals and companies due to his stupid policies will make the Democrats and Obama very unpopular in the coming year or two. Good luck with swaying public opinion.
No.
I'm sorry, but I do not think that Obama's political winds are changing. He is still seen as unfavorable amongst the general public - when you actually bother to do a full out poll and not these pittance surveys.
People were AGAINST Obamacare, that's why the huge turnover in the House. I can assure you that if there were enough Democrats up for re-election in the Senate, there would've been a larger gain in the Senate if not a takeover there.
Is either party perfect? - no, but I'm getting sick and tired of people doing these polls and manipulating information in order to harm groups that are actually making change.
Those of us in the real world know that Pelosi, Reid and Obama have caused more harm than good. We know that these polls and newstories attacking certain people or groups is done to counter any attacks on the three.
We were all disgusted with how Obama has spent our money to go to Hawaii, to go to a DINNER (one evening and for a couple of hours) to New York with Michelle on Air Force One, and ignored BP.
Yet, we have to read complaints about Bush spending time at HIS Ranch (he may have flown, but didn't have the expenses of hotel and other issues), waiting to do anything on 9/11 until after talking to the kids (never mind that he didn't want to overly scare them), and of course Katrina.
Media spin is what is making these "political winds" change - as far as public eye.
Reality is that we are going to see results come out, and if people even bother to look at the results, we'll see the true change come out in 2012 - mixed or total control of either party in Congress, and anyone else but Obama.
Bush was flying back and forth to Crawford constantly. (probably spent more time in Texas) but that was okay? Double standard again!!
mel: Tell me how the polling results were manipulated. That's a very easy accusation to make if you don't like the results. When the numbers agreed with your point of view, did you say the same thing?
One reason might be his talking down so the "little people" can understand him. The "Give Me's" think (odd) that he is brilliant and forthcoming as well as on their side. This whole breakdownis funny and could have been written by the cast of Saturday Night Live. Love the precentages used you can make anything look good with that trick. Example: Of the people that were polled 93% found they could see better than before with these Glasses (twenty three people, all with sensitivity to sun light) especially on sunny days.
About 45 percent of all registered voters voted last November. Dems stayed away to give them Pugs a bone. Looks like the Dems are gonna give 'em a bone in 2012 too.
The only reason Obama is having any uptick at all is that his party got its butt kicked in Nov and he had no choice but to move right a bit. Who on this post thinks its a coincidence that he is now seen as more of a "moderate" over the past 6 weeks? He is moving toward the middle ( thank God ) because he has to, not because he wants to.
The more he moves right however, the more he tweaks his base and is less likely to garner support for 2012. As usual, the independents will decide!
I agree. The independents are the swing vote that either side needs to capture. But the Republican party has a problem, too, because they are being pressured to swing further to the right, further than most want to go.
Fiscally, I think they will be pushed pretty far to the right. I dont necessarily disagree with reigning in the spending a bit ( I didnt like it when Bush spent like a drunk sailor either).
They need to stay more in the middle on many of the social issues however if they have any shot whatsoever in 2012.
GOOD FOR PRES OBAMA!! We down at the bottom of the barrel dont listen to all the HATER criticism the PRES gets from CRAZY FOOLS. Both sides are fools except for the PRES. Spewing HATE, RACISM, AND DOUBLE STANDARDS on the PRES is an attempt to break the man's integrity and manhood to which has failed. The PRES continues to show CLASS, RESPECT, AND DIGNITY to those who BLATANTLY TRY TO TEAR THIS MAN DOWN USING EVERY DISGUSTING AVENUE UNDER THE SUN. As a BLACK MAN PRESIDENT OBAMA sets a EXCELLENT EXAMPLE IN RESPECTS TO HIS CONDUCT. OBAMA is what a man of any RACE should strive to be like. OBAMA SHOW THIS COUNTRY HOW A BLACK MAN RUNS THINGS.
As a hardcore Democrat I just have one wish for the 2012 elections. Please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please let Sarah Palin get the Republican nomination.
And let Glen Beck be her running mate.
Why don't all you right wing extremists and tea partiers all move to Alaska and practice your markmanship on the tea bag.
Jody, Iowa and all the rest of you. I've disagreed many times with some of Bush's spending, but I'm convinced the problem we have now is the current debt. What bothers me is your belief in we have to increase spending to lower the debt - please help me understand. Bush racked up debt and your answer to get rid of it is to grow government. The reason the debt is higher now, will continue to grow, and liberals wanting to raise the ceiling is due to the enormously increasing size of government. This includes all unnecessary special interest groups, useless programs, policies, committees, etc., etc., etc. The real question is, "how do you intend to pay for it?" Funny the left has no answer.
I have an answer - quit spending money and reduce the size of government.
Republican solution ??? is that like jumbo shrimp ??
You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all the people any time, He has only moved to the middle because this is his only option because right now he is a lame duck president, Just more liberal tom foolery, What he is doing is right out of the Clinton political play book, Look at me I am moderate! until I get re-elected, If anybody thinks different they are the the fools!!
Poll accuracy is usually claimed as 3%. Let's see now: 40% see Obama as moderate, 45% as liberal and 11% as conservative. That tells me that inaccuracy of the poll should be at least 11%.
As an American on the fence I see so few people here whiling to compromise. I did not vote for our current President but anyone would be a fool to criticize him and the handling of the Arizona tragedy, he did very well. He did his JOB, at least he has one! But winds of change PLEASE “media” folks, PLEASE stop the spinning you PUKE out daily! You’re beginning to make some of your she-ple here dizzy!
Just look at the slide show of the state dinner for President Hu Jinto, Microsoft, JP Morgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs outsourcing and funny money specialist. Their some of the same group that got us into the mess we are in now. So birds of a feather, both sides left and right rub elbows with the same ol same ol!
And please, will one of you do-gooders call the DC police and have an all points bulletin put out for President Hu Jinto’s wife; she seems to be MIA in ALL photo ops! And this is our new BFF?
God Bless America we will need it!
You know, it's another damn poll. They usually mean nothing. It just a way for some to twist information to their own way of thinking. But why not? The government has been dooing it for a least one hundred and fifty years. Just ask the Indians, oops, I mean native Americans.
I've said many. many times. when it comes to the Dem's and Rep's, you can take the donkeys and put elephant suits on them and vise-versa today, then interchange their suits tomorrow. It's all about power and money. Which side has the power to spend our tax money however they feel.
As far as this old "Nam Vet " is concerned, It's still a matter of picking the lesser of the evils presented at the ballot box. I hope I can continue to be a free thinking independent voter.
Lastly I still feel that Obama will still go down as one of the greatest evils that has that has resided in the ovil office. Time and history will tell. By the way, I'm still looking for that high paying job he keeps talking about. About to lose my VA benefits(agent orange) and Social Security that I worked forty years for. I guess they mean those high paying minimum wage jobs( job means just over broke) are what he is talking about. Guess I'll have to work till I die on a job. Sorry kiddie's you'll have till then to get mine.