Looking to 2011: Unemployment and the presidency

When evaluating President Obama’s -- or a Republican challenger’s -- chances in 2012 relative to the jobless rate, history is instructive.

No American president since WWII has been reelected with unemployment as high as it is today. In fact, no presidential election has taken place since WWII with unemployment as high as it is today.

The highest unemployment rate in November of a presidential year was in 1976, when it was 7.8%. Jimmy Carter was elected then, but lost reelection four years later when unemployment remained at similar rate of 7.5%. Unemployment during Carter’s presidency dropped to as low as 5.6% in May 1979, but it ballooned more than two points in a year and a half.

Unemployment so far under President Obama tracks more closely the presidency of Ronald Reagan. The jobless rate continued to climb to half a century highs during the first two years of Reagan’s presidency. In November and December 1982, right after the midterm elections in which Republicans saw double-digit losses, unemployment hit a record high of 10.8%. But it began to consistently drop beginning in January 1983, something Obama and his supporters hope will also happen in 2011. Today, unemployment is 9.8%, the highest since June 1983.

By December 1983, unemployment dropped two-and-a-half percentage points from that 10.8% high to 8.3%. By November 1984, it was 7.2%, and Reagan won in a landslide. The jobless rate continued to drop during Reagan’s second term to as low as 5.3% before again rising to as high as 7.8% in June 1992, five months before Bill Clinton -- whose campaign famously used the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid” -- was elected.

Currently President Obama's approval rating is actually higher than Reagan's was at the same time, but unemployment is likely going to have to come down for the president to follow in Reagan's footsteps.

Unemployment in presidential years
1948: 3.8
1952: 2.8
1956: 4.3
1960: 6.1
1964: 4.8
1968: 3.4
1972: 5.3
1976: 7.8
1980: 7.5
1984: 7.2
1988: 5.3
1992: 7.4
1996: 5.4
2000: 3.9
2004: 5.4
2008: 6.9

Current: 9.8%

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Discuss this post

This was a banner year for Christmas sales. I know I did my part: nicer presents for 5 children, 7 adults, up over last year's Grinch-y display. Pretty sure happy days are here again, and President Obama will be re-elected.

  • 3 votes
Reply#1 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 9:38 AM EST

Uh Oh, Domenico, How dare You compare President Obama to President Reagon! Don't link this article to MSNBC's HomePage, or all the NutJobs in Real America will come for an allout onslaught upon Your Character.

If he does continue to be compared to Reagon, Does that also mean that future congresses will provide Earmarks for his name "Obama" to be on everything from Milk cartons to Postage stamps?

As DBO points out, No President has had to Deal with American Companys, aka Multinational Company's, shipping Jobs overseas at the this Pace. Will the MSM help to educate the Public on that pesky little fact, or will they (the MSM)continue with making Bewitched a New Political Icon? I suspect the latter will occur.

The New Republican House will no doubt provide plenty of Entertainment of which America has never seen. Pay the cable bill & pop the Popcorn, it's gonna get downright Hilarious!

You Betcha!

  • 5 votes
#1.1 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 10:21 AM EST

Geekers, RIck- dont you ever listen to Hannity? That's SAINT Reagan, to you! (yes- THAT Hannity. The one that thinks it's cute to keep saying "the Messiah" and 'the anointed one' when talking about the current President).

  • 5 votes
#1.2 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 10:31 AM EST

How much do you want to bet that the Republicans do everything they can to keep the unemployment rate high for the next two years? It's all about preventing Obama's re-election for them. Who cares about the unemployed peasants?

  • 5 votes
#1.3 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 4:46 PM EST

WOW,

Look at the great employment numbers for the Bush years. Maybe Obama should call Bush in for some advice.

    #1.4 - Mon Jan 3, 2011 5:34 AM EST
    Reply

    The following is a paid-political contribution is being made on behalf of JoAnnaSmith1, No Jo, and Joe-Albany in their (temporary??) absence:

    "Who cares? Obama's is NO GOOD" He's a fraud. How's that November election workin' out for you? Obama RUINED this country! Feisty's a cretin. Drive-Thru's a butt-head. Did we say Obama's a nit-wit? We did? We were wrong- he's TWO nitwits!"

    We now return to our regular, well-thought out, factual and informative FDD-Free posts.

    • 8 votes
    Reply#2 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 9:59 AM EST

    Thanks for the chuckle this morning DBO!

    Here are some words that have met their experation date on 12.31.10:

    SOCIALIST - TELEPROMPTER - BIRTH CERTIFICATE - FACIST - NAZI & EPIC

    Please feel free to add any I might have missed! lol

    • 4 votes
    #2.1 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 10:15 AM EST

    ...FAILED....(as in 'policy')....THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE...(as in 'ignored')...

    • 3 votes
    #2.2 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 11:34 AM EST

    Well Drive-by,

    You were making sense till the last sentence. Just keep trying, you'll get it right.

      #2.3 - Mon Jan 3, 2011 5:37 AM EST
      Reply

      Your story says, in part:

      "chances in 2012 relative to the jobless rate, history is instructive.

      No American president since WWII has been reelected with unemployment as high as it is today. In fact, no presidential election has ever taken place with unemployment as high as it is today."

      BUT- in times prior, were the unemployment numbers the direct result of big American Business sending so many jobs over seas, never to return? Is the average voter aware of this difference? I'm guessing not. They MUST be reminmded every day between now and 2012! Please do your part, fellow readers. You too, MSNBC!

      • 3 votes
      Reply#3 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 10:04 AM EST

      drive by - you do realize that if the Japan's parlialment reduces corporate tax rate in japan to the mid 20's that the US corporate taxe rate will then become the highest global corporate tax rate? What doies that do for ya? BTW, if you don't like our current tax codes then write your legislative reps to change them.

      If the american consumer only wants their toys at the lowest prices, why is it the american businesses fault to provide them with low prices by reducing their cost of production.

      Try to blame business all you want, it is still the american consumer who sets the demand.

      • 2 votes
      #3.1 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 12:18 PM EST

      "........ it is still the american consumer who sets the demand."

      And- it is still the business' 'models' that set the expected profit margins.

      • 2 votes
      #3.2 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 12:51 PM EST

      And it is still a misrepresentation to blame the tax rates since no company in the US actually paid the published rates. With the loopholes and tax breaks they get, the US has effective tax rates that are very competitive with the rest of the world. Source: http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=784

      Let's also not forget that Exxon paid $0.00 in taxes and still received over $45 million from the US government in 'tax rebates'. Sources: http://thinkprogress.org/2010/04/06/exxon-tax/ , http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/How-Exxon-paid-zero-tazes-in-2009.php , http://motherjones.com/mojo/2010/04/exxon-mobil-paid-zero-income-tax-offshore%20shelter-wal-mart-general-electric-forbes# ,

      Try again, american.

      • 3 votes
      #3.3 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 1:16 PM EST

      Why are companies making record profits when demand in the US has been down? Because people in Asia and other emerging economies are doing well and buying the products. You know, the people who the companies are actually hiring overseas while the companies squeeze even more productivity out of our shrunken workforce.

      <begin snark> Who'd a thunk it? You give people jobs, they have money to spend, they buy your product. What a concept! <end snark>

      So, no, american, the US no longer 'sets the demand'.

      Try again.

      • 2 votes
      #3.4 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 2:49 PM EST

      mathew - why should I try again? Don't like the tax codes, then write to your congressman for change or start a movement to rewrite the tax codes. This is the second time I said to change the tax codes. Do you not know how to read or follow a train of thought?

      Please brush up on your reading comprehension, what you say I said and what I actually said...are two different items...

      If the american consumer only wants their toys at the lowest prices, why is it the american businesses fault to provide them with low prices by reducing their cost of production.

      What part of this do you refuse to understand?? The consumer sets the price for what they want to buy in the market they want to buy it in. Got more than one cell phone for personal use? Computer? TV?

      Yes mathew, perhaps the asians are doing better and they can afford to buy the products that are being made outside of the US, if you truly believe this then why can't the US export these same products to them for them to buy? Could it be that our labor and regulatory costs and rules makes this impossible to be competitive in a global market.

      We can do well to export high tech ideas, aircraft, some construction and agricultural equipment as well as agricultural products. Do well that is, until the emerging markets learn how to make these products better and perhaps cheaper as they have basic consumer products.

      Perhaps you can also answer this. Why do businesses and banks sit on their $$$ for domestic spending while the government hems and haws on what taxes and regulatory standards the government will require them to meet. Would you freely spend your own money if you knew your taxes were to radically go up?? I doubt it!

      Are you aware that it was reported on Bloomberg TV yesterday that it was expected that 122 new commitees were to be created to regulate the new financial reform act and that the democrats made no provisions for funding the manpower, equipment costs or buildings to house these new government workers? I would imagine that the healthcare acts face similar funding issues.

      Read or cite all the articles you want to, but untill you have to make the decisions that businesses make to maintain employment and to create a viable product or service you will remain clueless and beholden to the thoughts of spin doctors and off the wall propagandists web sites.

      BTW, brush up on reading business profit and loss statements + if you don't like the wages of ceo's and other execs then buy into those companies or become a board member and change the compensation packages.

      • 1 vote
      #3.5 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 4:26 PM EST

      drive by - and what is an exceptable net profit margin to you, 1%, 3%, 10%, 20%? Please keep in mind that a companies net profit has to cover the cost of any risks they may encounter when doing business or for capital equipment necessary to maintain productivity and safe operations.

      Surely you have a % in mind when you state...

      And- it is still the business' 'models' that set the expected profit margins.

      • 1 vote
      #3.6 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 4:39 PM EST

      You're funny, american.

      FDD

      • 1 vote
      #3.7 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 4:40 PM EST

      Now see, american, you just proved that you haven't got a clue as to what you are talking about. Net profit is after ALL expenses, including taxes, capital investment and risk planning.

      So, cbpp.org is a propagandist web site and Bloomberg isn't? I gave a link with empirical data and you talk about speculation from a right wing propaganda source. Yep, that just devastated my argument all over the place . . . not.

      FDD

      SIASD

      • 1 vote
      #3.8 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 4:44 PM EST

      really mathew - risk assesment can be planned but how can it be allowed as an expense to be deducted, the cash is still there, not spent. The same holds true for capital expenditures. Neither can be exspenced or depreciated untill $$$ are spent. Think that business doesn't plan ahead for potential expenses. I am quite sure that that the IRS would frown upon a business trying to deduct $$$ for something planned in the future.

      I question the validity and bias of any web site or news service who right out of the gate builds up one political party while tearing down another. Bloomberg TV has yet to deny either party or economist to present their viewponts on economic policy by any viable political party or nation.

      Please explain to us by what means that the healthcare acts and financial reform acts will be managed?

      What is the old addage about "figures don't lie, but liers figure". Want to explain economic figures let's wait for the final figures to be presented down the road by a .gov web site

      • 1 vote
      #3.9 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 6:59 PM EST

      That has to be one of the most ironic posts I have seen from anyone on the right for quite some time.

      You're right, american, figures never lie but liars always figure. <chuckle>

        #3.10 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 11:35 PM EST

        That is your answer to how business allocates funds for future needs and unseen expenses??? Or how the health care acts and financial reform acts will be managed?? Or what the final $$$ figures will be once the plans are implemented? How droll! and how informative on how you think!

          #3.11 - Sat Jan 1, 2011 2:12 AM EST

          Irrelevent and you're not worth the time. It's like talking to a brick wall except that a brick wall has a purpose.

            #3.12 - Sat Jan 1, 2011 4:26 PM EST
            Reply

            Dunno where the Republicans are going to find someone to beat him. Romney's got his support of health care and Mormonism to contend with. Palin can't attract anyone with an IQ greater than bread mold. Huckabee? I'm just not feelin' it. Someone might come out of the woodwork, but so do cockroaches!

            • 2 votes
            Reply#4 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 11:38 AM EST

            Auntie- here's the frightening thing about it, though:

            What you say is all true. BUT- these fools all RE-elected Bush for a 2nd term, when it had already become obvious the guy was a flake.

            • 2 votes
            #4.1 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 11:57 AM EST

            Auntie - Carter and obama come to mind as being relative unknowns at the start of their election year campaigns. So nice that you equate carter and obama as cockroaches. LOL!!

            Someone might come out of the woodwork, but so do cockroaches!

            • 2 votes
            #4.2 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 12:24 PM EST
            Reply

            I laugh at the impression that Obama is next to walking on water. Some pundits state he will move to the center....what a joke. He won't change his spots.....he has an agenda and will follow through on it, no matter what happens to the country.

            Without question, there will be opposition from his own party regarding his opportunity for re-election. And, there will be qualified republicans who will challenge the candidate from the spending party. Obama will be out.

            • 3 votes
            Reply#5 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 12:26 PM EST

            Safecracker,

            Obama may have his agenda, but it is now pretty much irrelevent. Nothing will get passed unless it proudly displays "The Republican Gold Seal of Approval". Items like the DREAM ACT, and CAP AND TRADE are really dead. Dead and buried. He needs to ask the Republican leadership what they want, and then back it. Otherwise he won't even have the appearance of getting anything done. He is now the typical empty suit, figurehead whose main function (between vacations) will be to dress up and read a teleprompter. That's it, thats his function.

            • 1 vote
            #5.1 - Mon Jan 3, 2011 5:52 AM EST
            Reply

            Fiesty, your schoolyard rants are funny!

            • 2 votes
            Reply#6 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 12:26 PM EST

            ".... there will be qualified republicans..."

            Your stuff is pretty funny, too, safecracker.

            • 1 vote
            #6.1 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 12:54 PM EST

            Funny, but accurate. Non-lefist.

            • 2 votes
            #6.2 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 1:22 PM EST
            Reply

            Funny - Shovel ready projects!

            • 1 vote
            Reply#7 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 1:50 PM EST

            Yeah, what ever happened to those Obama projects? Are they still out there? did stimulus go for those projects, or did the money go for other things? Yeah, and how many "saved jobs" are still out there?

            • 2 votes
            #7.1 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 2:06 PM EST

            Safecracker,

            The trully sad part is all those families who are suffering the most from this Obama recession. the media keeps spinning that everything is so much better under the messiah's fantastic, unbelievable, leadership that happy days are here again for almost all of us (please vote Democratic).

            Tell it to the depressed parents that can"t afford food for their kids, that have lost their house, that have holes in their shoes. that are reduced to a bicycle or the city bus to go anywhere. Who are shivering under a pile of blankets because they can't afford to heat their hovel. Yeah, tell them how if the just have HOPE, then things will CHANGE. That crap is really getting old.

            • 1 vote
            #7.2 - Mon Jan 3, 2011 6:02 AM EST
            Reply

            Comparing our current administration with Ronald Reagan's is like comparing weeds with orchids. The agenda of the (presumably liberal) Democrat, Mr. Obama, is diametrically opposite to that of the (historically moderate) Republican, Ronald Reagan.

            The weed thrives on consuming all plant-life in its path in a devastating way.

            Orchids are hardy and fulfill the difficult niche of being the best they can be and not at the expense of others.

            In case some here would ascribe the weeds metaphor to any but the current administration, I think you just might check out George Santayana's memorable words (from the mid-20th Century)... "He who does not study the past is doomed to repeat it."

            The mistakes of the past must be acknowledged, and not blamed! Mistakes are to be learned from, not whined about. Hands-wringing cripples us. Raising a hand grip for betterment is more constructive and far more appropriate.

            Blaming others is for wimps. Taking personal responsibility is for the strong.

            • 2 votes
            Reply#8 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 4:25 PM EST

            you got that right!

            • 1 vote
            #8.1 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 4:42 PM EST

            Second

            So if I am to understand your metaphor and subsequent explanation of it correctly, President Obama should acknowledge that ObamaCare was a mistake and fix it, that the bailout of GM ws mistake and get our money back now, that the unprecedented expansion of government and government spending was a mistake and reverse it, that the Stimulus package did no good and revert spending levels to 2008 levels immediately.

            President Obama should acknowledge that unemployment wa 6.9% when he took office and it is 9.8% and it is his responsibility and no one elses.

            President Obama should acknowledge that ideological sanctimony at the expense of progress for the U.S. is an abomination.

            Is that what you are saying?

              #8.2 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 8:21 PM EST

              Robert... almost... but that doesn't exempt each and every one of us posting here just to be content to see that. What power does each of us have? If we are citizens of the U.S.A., we have the power 1) of the vote; 2) of reaching our own representitives by email or snail mail; 3) volunteering to help in some way if we can.

              If we are not citizens, perhaps just interested observers ... :) ahh that for another post.

              • 1 vote
              #8.3 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 9:34 PM EST
              Reply

              Well I sure hope the car business gets better next year than it was this year. Happy New Year

              http://zautos.com

                Reply#9 - Fri Dec 31, 2010 8:32 PM EST
                kimkeyDeleted

                unemployment 2000 was 3.9%

                unemployment in 2008 was 6.9% but both the number of unemployed persons (11.6 million) and the unemployment rate (7.6 percent) rose in January of 2009 when Bush left the office. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 4.1 million and the unemployment rate has risen by 2.7 percentage points.

                Simply said, the unemployment increased systematically since 2000.

                But I'll bet that was Clinton's fault.

                  Reply#11 - Sat Jan 1, 2011 5:15 PM EST
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