Likely the fewest incumbents elected to the House since 1948


There will be a lot of new faces in the next Congress.

Based on results of Tuesday's election, 22% or more of the next Congress will be comprised of new members -- the most since 1992, according to numbers crunched by the NBC Political Unit and Vital Statistics on Congress 2008.

There are still nine uncalled House races, all involving Democratic incumbents. The results of those races could change the numbers slightly. Republicans lead in five of those, and if they do win, the incumbent reelection rate would still appear to be high 85%, but it would be the lowest in the House since 1948.

In the Senate, if Lisa Murkowski wins, then 84% of incumbents who sought reelection would return to Congress. It was lower in 2006 (78.6%). Traditionally, the incumbent reelection rate is much higher in the House -- 92% of House incumbents have been reelected on average since 1946 versus 79% of Senate incumbents.

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Extraordinary numbers to match the extraordinary Great Recession we're still recovering from. It does not surprise me, despite my hopes a week ago, and if I were to guess, had the republicans held the majority, they would have been the ones sent packing in 2010. Goes with the economy.

  • 8 votes
Reply#1 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 4:55 PM EST

Plus there is the actual policies and laws passed by the best, most competent speaker ever. She was so good she got so many of her members canned. That's failure, plain and simple. And let's all hope she does come back as minority leader.

Then there's the things she didn't do - no budget and no vote on preventing everyone's taxes from going up.

  • 5 votes
#1.1 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 4:59 PM EST

See- another one from the radical fringes. Pelosi did NOT cause taxes to go up. Bush did that when he put the 'use by' date on that bill. (which, by the way, reminds me: IF the tax breaks create jobs, why haven't they been used by this late date to do so???)

  • 7 votes
#1.2 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 5:31 PM EST

Jody,

..... the extraordinary Great Depression we're still recovering from.

Wow. I thought Obama prevented the second Great Depression.

BTW - Maybe the Great Depression would not have been Great had FDR pulled the federal government back. Obama was following the same game plan. Seems some Americans have figured it out.

Goes with the economy.

Obama said he could fix it with his agenda and policies. It was all the failed policies of Bush right? His policies and agenda have not budged it. His agenda has not worked, and never has for any of the others that have tried it before, time after time.

Americans get it.

Spanky,

The 2008 starting rotation of Obama, Reid and Pelosi to pitch the same stuff again in 2012?

Heck Yea, we'll take that.

  • 7 votes
#1.3 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 5:34 PM EST

By failing to act Pelosi can cause taxes to increase for all. We can call them the Pelosi tax increases.

Pelosi didn't just get 68 democrats canned because she was the best speaker ever. She lined up and lead the firing squad. She knew what she was doing, and gosh darn it I can only hopes she keeps on keeping on.

Really, she comes from a place that just banned Happy Meals. Happy. Meals. Clearly the folks in SF know better than us that Toys are bad. Very Bad. So says them.

  • 6 votes
#1.4 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:10 PM EST

"Goes with the economy."

That's the cliche, isn't it?

Actually it goes with the frustration of not being represented. Neither party represents us. So we have the endless flim flam where ideology is just a put-on and democracy is a sham. To pretend otherwise is silly.

    #1.5 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:29 PM EST

    In 1982, with the economy worse than today, and before Reagan's programs had a chance to go into effect, Reagan's party lost 26 House seats, and no Senate seats.

    In 1994, after increasing taxes and ATTEMPTING HCR, Clinton lost 53 House seats, and 7 Senate seats.

    Heck, Jimmy Carter only lost 15 House seats and 3 Senate seats.

    With the war growing more unpopular, GW Bush lost 30 House seats and 6 Senate seats, and the media categorized that as a landslide.

    So, what do we make of 68 House seats, and 6 Senate seats? The media and the left say it is some kind of misunderstanding.

    I can tell you it is the voice of a people who are angry at voting for a pragmatic centrist and getting a far left ideologue instead. They did not want the policies he rammed through without the consent of the governed, and they spoke, loudly, at the ballot box.

    I have been saying for a year and a half that it would be easier to find a palm tree in Minnesota in January 2011, than a democratic representative in congress. Looks like I was right.

    So, now all we need is for Obama to get miffed, take his bat and ball, and go home.

    That is change I can believe in!

    • 7 votes
    #1.6 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:41 PM EST

    Spanky,

    Most of us want the top earner's taxes to rise back to level comparable with their income....

    • 2 votes
    #1.7 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 7:56 PM EST

    basedrum,

    What is that level? 250K? You think 250K in NYC rich? In LA? San Fransisco? My Uncle is selling his store he had for 27 years in Northern California because of this mess. I was out there 3 weeks ago thinking about buying it. For one thing, he won't sell it to me because of the BS taxes and wouldn't do that to family. If he keeps it, which he won't, he would have to let go 2 of 4 people because of the 250K BS. This Government needs to figure out real quick that this 250K doesn't mean you're rich if you're a small business owner. Obama is out of touch with the American Business owners.

    • 2 votes
    #1.8 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 9:16 PM EST
    Reply

    The people on the far right got fed up with Repubicans, and became the tea-bagger party. An awful lot of folks on the far left are now becoming just as teed-off at the Democrats. When some of the Democrats try to avoid grid lock, and meet the Repubs part way, I can see the formation of a group that is the equivalent of the tea baggers, agitating for trowing out a bunch of namby-pamby Democrats next election cyle.

    Neat, huh? A bunch of marginalized, increasingly radical people taking over everything, and a heretofore unidentified SANE group forming a 3rd party, and taking it all at the end of the day.

    Not a pretty thought, but honest to God- Why the hell should the left be expected to kow tow to the right, when the right did NOTHING to advance the well-being of the country or her citizenry for the last 2 years?

    • 3 votes
    Reply#2 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 5:28 PM EST

    Good one.

    But seems like the so-called extreme Tea Party was a reaction to the extremism of Obama's agenda.

    The mad Hungarian and all his money, groups, media is main stream? Unions main stream? Been there all along drive-by. Stevie Wonder can see that, why not you guys?

    And about that Gridlock.

    Business has been screaming about uncertainty for over a year. If grid lock is a certainty, business can certainly use that certainty - the certainty that more crazy, destructive legislation isn't going to hit them in the head. Wait and see, shouldn't be long either.

    The right advanced the well being of the country by stopping Obama as best as they could. All those NO votes by Republicans were proxy votes for the American people until they had a vote.

    Well, they voted last Tuesday.

    • 6 votes
    #2.1 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 5:59 PM EST

    Perhaps if you didn't just drive by you would realize that the Dems and Obama made no real effort to meet anyone half way on anything. It was their way or their way. If you didn't like it and you were a Republican you were told how stupid, or racist, or whatever other label they wanted to come up with you were. You were then kindly escorted to the back of the bus and told to be quiet. If you were a dem and didn't agree you were bribed with other people's money so that you would "Just go along with the program".

    Fortunately for America we have this little thing called an election process where the people get to speak. And in speaking we sent the Dem majority in the House packing. Now, the Dems and Obama will actually have to meet the Repubs part way and they will have to listen rather than put on Obama powered infomercials.

    • 4 votes
    #2.2 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:07 PM EST

    That probably won't happen. You can look to California. Hard Left. They are already marginalized and hard core. Good news for us is they are about to run out of money. You can only inflate pensions and give away governmental services for so long. And that threshhold was crossed already.

    And Sparky 1028 you are confusing me with your handle. Good news is you seem to know what you are talking about.

    • 3 votes
    #2.3 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:13 PM EST
    Reply

    Lord, I see we are still on the "it was an anti-incumbent wave".

    Does it not strike you as odd that just about all of those Incumbents were democrats?

    Not even worth a mention?

    • 5 votes
    Reply#3 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 5:36 PM EST

    Harry who?

    • 2 votes
    #3.1 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 5:44 PM EST

    no joe, no bo, nj

    Lord, I see we are still on the "it was an anti-incumbent wave".

    Does it not strike you as odd that just about all of those Incumbents were democrats?

    Not even worth a mention?


    What I find strange is that the Tea Baggers would drag clueless people off the streets to replace an experienced incumbent who served them well; case in point Russ Feingold.

    • 2 votes
    #3.2 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 5:55 PM EST

    Good service is in the eye of the beholder. Evidently Russ wasn't all that hot according to his constituents.

    • 5 votes
    #3.3 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:09 PM EST

    The electorate must be wrong (or is it ignorant/don't know what is good for them). Feingold was deemed to be deficient. People who like progressive policies don't go hard right to make their point. The guy who beat Feingold ran a business, and understood what it is to have to make a payroll. Kind of important, no?

    Bev. have you ever had to make a payroll? Ever employ other people and be totally responsible for their salaries?

    • 3 votes
    #3.4 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:17 PM EST

    Hey no joe, no bo

    Obama's friends and progressive family here at FR don't seem to be talking about it, but is Obama OK?

    I was reading an op-ed in the NYT (I think it was NYT) and this guy was talking about free markets, how America should be known not for what we consume, but what we produce, on and on. Great stuff. I thought it was some Round Table CEO. It turns out, it was the President of the US!!!!!! Obama his own self????

    Then I read about the trip we had been talking about. Seems Obama straightened out the trade problems, the export restrictions on India in only a few minutes (and between site seeing trips with Michelle) after arriving in Mumbia. Met with 200 American big business execs (why did he have to go to India to that?) On and On...

    Great stuff, but Obama flying around and meeting with big business fat cat CEOs? Boeing, GE, McGraw Hill, etc.,

    Obama has gone from being at war with the Chamber of Commerce to sounding like the president of the Chamber of Commerce in one week.

    Is Obama OK? Is this a new double/decoy that stood in for Obama and still had Bush's old script?

    Or, did Obama really get the message last Tuesday, has switched back to the centrist for campaign purposes and kicked off his 2012 campaign in Mumbia?

    Weird huh.

    • 3 votes
    #3.5 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:40 PM EST

    I was struck by some of those same things, bob.

    In particular I was struck by the change of tune in a few short days. Only ten days or so ago, we were being exhorted that evil businesses were outsourcing jobs to India. Oddly, now Obama is talking about how trade with India supports about 50,000 jobs right here in the good old USA.

    Stranger Stijl, not one of the posters on the left have mentioned this. Not a peep.

    It is true, of course. The fact is, it was true a week ago, six weeks ago, six months ago. It just seems that Obama only got the memo with his trip itinerary. Guess it did not fit his narrative before then.

    I swear, if he told them they could fly, they would all jump off their roofs.

    • 4 votes
    #3.6 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 7:19 PM EST
    Reply

    If we all look at it in proper perspective re electing the SAME OLD TOADS is getting us back in the same old @!$%#ter they are the ones who got us to where we are now , I SAY KICK OUT ALL THE INCUMBENT'S PERIOD GET BACK ON THE HORSE THAT WILL LEED US NOT BURY US

      Reply#4 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 5:46 PM EST

      JAMES DUCKWORTH

      If we all look at it in proper perspective re electing the SAME OLD TOADS is getting us back in the same old @!$%#ter they are the ones who got us to where we are now , I SAY KICK OUT ALL THE INCUMBENT'S PERIOD GET BACK ON THE HORSE THAT WILL LEED US NOT BURY US.

      Your statement is a prime example of what I mean by cluelessness. I'm not calling you clueless. I'm just saying...doesn't Cristine O'Donnell ring a bell; even FOX NOISE won't touch her?

        #4.1 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:03 PM EST

        Has Alexi G. been indicted yet?

        How about alan Greyson. Is he more or less crazy than O'Donnell?

        • 5 votes
        #4.2 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:20 PM EST

        Spanky-

        Has Alexi G. been indicted yet?

        How about alan Greyson. Is he more or less crazy than O'Donnell?

        Wow, another classical example of dim- witted stupity and someting clueless; there Spanky!!!

        Is it a crime to play professional basketball for Panionios basketball club in Greece?

        You couldn't be talking about the Broadway Bank which-- like many businesses -- struggled during these challenging times-- just like thousands of small community banks at risk fell on hard time in this country did.

        It's a myth that Alexi approved loans to known mobsters and that's why the bank was in trouble. On numerous occasions since 2006, he has mentioned that most banks did not do criminal background checks on their loan applicants but rather lend based on credit worthiness, collateral and property valuation. Because of banking regulations that were strictly followed by the bank, all of these loans were legal and reviewed by state and federal regulators.

        The fact is, if you're speaking of Tony Rezko, Rezko was not a convicted felon, under indictment, or even under public suspicion, when he received loans from Broadway Bank.

        Any suggestion that these few loans had any relationship to the bank’s financial problems is a dim-witted lie.

        Alexi committed no crime despite Repugs trying to portray Alexi as a mafioso.

        You need to look at Kirk's lies and how he will vote. Already, he has lied about his promise to be a good senator he gave at beer summit at the Billy Goat Tavern.

        Kirk said he's eager to vote with others in the GOP to protect wealthy Americans from paying more when Democrats consider extending Bush-era tax cuts for everyone else.

        That doesn't bode well to be in lock step with the Republican/Tea Bagger Party to be for Wall Street instead of Main Street!!!

        He really needs to read that book about Abraham Lincoln Alexi gave him.

          #4.3 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 8:28 PM EST
          Reply

          A woman in a hot air balloon realizes she is lost. She lowers her altitude and spots a man fishing from a boat below.
          She shouts to him, "Excuse me, can you help me? I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago, but I don't know where I am."
          The man consults his portable GPS and replies, "You're in a hot air balloon, approximately 30 feet above a ground elevation of 2346 feet above sea level. You are at 31 degrees, 14.97 minutes north latitude and 100 degrees, 49.09 minutes west longitude.
          She rolls her eyes and says, "You must be a Republican!"
          "I am," replies the man. "How did you know?"
          "Well," answers the balloonist, "everything you tell me is technically correct, but I have no idea what to do with your information, and I'm still lost. Frankly, you're not much help to me."
          The man smiles and responds, "You must be a Democrat."
          "I am," replies the balloonist. "How did you know?"
          "Well," says the man, "You don't know where you are or where you're going. You've risen to where you are, due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise that you have no idea how to keep, and now you expect me to solve your problem. You're in exactly the same position you were in before we met , but, somehow, now it's my fault."

          • 4 votes
          Reply#5 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 5:56 PM EST

          colinx

          The man smiles and responds, "You must be a Democrat."
          "I am," replies the balloonist. "How did you know?"
          "Well," says the man, "You don't know where you are or where you're going. You've risen to where you are, due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise that you have no idea how to keep, and now you expect me to solve your problem. You're in exactly the same position you were in before we met , but, somehow, now it's my fault."

          I read that joke on another website except it was the republican.

            #5.1 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:22 PM EST
            Reply

            Every new member will have the same pay and perks as the old guys. They also can vote themselves another pay raise. They can receive that quality health insurance plan for themselves and their families which taxpayers pick up the majority of the premium. The plan with no pre existing conditions in it. The plan they continue to receive for life. For those who ran on cutting that debt, start by cutting your pay in half. Then pay for the entire cost of your health insurance. Having the taxpayers pay for 90% of your health insurance and calling it a compensation package when it is actually socialised medicine. We pay for it and you benefit from it. Cut, cut, cut. You do not have to wait to pass a new bill. You can now live what you preach by giving back half your pay and picking up the entire cost of your socialised health plan. Right now, cut, cut, cut. Healthcare, socialist, healthcare, socialist. Keep repeating it over and over, all the time receiving socialist healthcare yourself.

              Reply#6 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 5:57 PM EST

              And start with the Tea Partiers! It will prove they are serious!

                #6.1 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:29 PM EST

                Tea Party, seriously clueless.

                  #6.2 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:44 PM EST

                  Not clueless, "astro-turf" is what Pelosi called them back in mid 2009. So it would appear that Pelosi lost 68 of her members to fake grass. She must really suck.

                  • 5 votes
                  #6.3 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:50 PM EST

                  Spanky-

                  Not clueless, "astro-turf" is what Pelosi called them back in mid 2009. So it would appear that Pelosi lost 68 of her members to fake grass. She must really suck.

                  Actually, it is the "astro-turfers" who are kinda like Kanye West and Tea Baggers that suck.

                  Political campaigns and special-interest groups are using scores of fake Twitter accounts to create the impression of broad grass-roots political expressions where there are none. Faking a political movement is called "Astroturfing.

                  Wherever there are lots of eyes looking at screens, spammers will be there; so why not with politics?"

                  http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/26666/?p1=A1&a=f


                    #6.4 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 8:57 PM EST
                    Reply

                    What I find strange is that the Tea Baggers would drag clueless people off the streets to replace an experienced incumbent who served them well; case in point Russ Feingold.

                    If you're using Russ Feingold as a case in point, you're wrong. He was soundly beaten by a better candidate. Ron Johnson is an experienced business owner who has created jobs, met a payroll for years and understands the plight of the taxpayer. Oh, by the way, he is not a "Teabagger". Russ Feingold has been a career politician, lost touch with the people of Wisconsin and get what he deserved. The American people were reminded during the past two years that big government doesn't work. Russ Feingold represents big government. Good riddance to him.

                    • 6 votes
                    Reply#7 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:27 PM EST

                    Now, gencsh, why in the world would we want somebody with that kind of experience in the Senate? The way you talk, you would think that the Founders had in mind a group of citizen representatives, rather than career politicians! You would think that this country was founded by people who had a low regard for people who were born to government, rather than those who were chosen by their fellow citizens based on their belief that they could represent their interests, then come home to tend their own business!

                    What are you, some kind of patriot? Are you one of those nuts who study American history or something?

                    My goodness, next you will be telling us George Washington eschewed the title King!

                    • 2 votes
                    #7.1 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 7:27 PM EST

                    gensch

                    Oh, by the way, he is not a "Teabagger".

                    Whatever

                      #7.2 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 9:01 PM EST
                      Reply

                      Why do the stupid, incoherent comments, full of misspellings and bad grammar, come from the right wing?

                      Oh, wait--I know the answer.

                      • 3 votes
                      Reply#8 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:30 PM EST

                      Read any of Bev's comments lately? Just saying. . .

                      • 2 votes
                      #8.1 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 7:29 PM EST
                      Reply

                      I see Jody from Iowa is the only regular, liberal poster so far to banter with those of us on the right. I am proud of you Jody for not selling your soul even though we disagree politically. Where are Feisty Redhead and Ron Indiana?

                      • 1 vote
                      Reply#9 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:39 PM EST

                      Off getting looped at the " Dew Drop Inn".

                      • 1 vote
                      #9.1 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 7:28 PM EST
                      Reply

                      Are the new sweethearts of the House going to work for the American people or just say NO like Boehner and McConnell...............what a bunch of do nothings.......................What has the GOP done for you in the last 10 years.............back to the dark ages with wars and the poor economy they created ..............so says a former Reagan top economist in his new book. Who does the GOP think they are kidding.

                        Reply#10 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:40 PM EST

                        Bush and all of his admissions make me sick.........................a dry drunk to an intellectual for President. I will stick with this intellectual, Obama for the long run................Rove........................drop dead.

                          Reply#11 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 6:43 PM EST

                          Chris-1400348

                          Rove........................drop dead

                          That's a good idea, though I rather see him going to jail for an investigation of his corporate front groups American Crossroads by the Internal Revenue Service; then he can "drop dead" .

                          I'd also like to see Bush/Cheney having 'hell in a cell " in The Hague while waiting to be convicted for treason and war crimes. So do millions of other people in the world.


                            #11.1 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 8:45 PM EST

                            Classic there Bev, whether you disagree with Bush he was our President. How do you feel again if people talk bad about Obama? You're just as stupid as the people that don't think Obama is our President. There's a difference from dislike and stupidity and you're on the stupidity side.

                            • 1 vote
                            #11.2 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 9:35 PM EST
                            Reply

                            Feingold was someone who wanted to take some of the money out of politics.  In other words, perhaps more than anyone else, he wanted there to be less whores in Washington.  Let's face it, all of the politicians have to worry too much about how to finance those stupid advertisements.  I think it is very sad that someone who wanted issues to predominate got beaten in the teabagger wave.  The teabaggers say they want honorable citizens to lead them.  Feingold was as good as it got.  Most of the Republicans the teabaggers ended up voting for are placed in so many embarrassing positions for the big oil companies, strip miners, the big polluting fertilizer companies, the big pharmaceutical companies, and anything China wants them to do, that they can barely walk when the orgy is over. 

                             

                            • 1 vote
                            Reply#12 - Mon Nov 8, 2010 8:35 PM EST

                            I would hazard a guess that you believe as our president does, that the majority of American voters are much too simple to see the brilliance of his leadership? It's all about you, ain't it?

                            • 3 votes
                            #12.1 - Tue Nov 9, 2010 6:49 AM EST
                            Reply
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