The midterms: The big day is here

The Boston Globe’s front-page headline: “Day of decision in year of discontent.”

So how did we get here? Stu Rothenberg: “Democrats never succeeded in changing the trajectory of the election cycle that developed roughly midway through last year. Once voters decided President Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats weren’t the answer, the election cycle was set. That doesn’t mean that the size of the Republican wave was inevitable, but it does mean that all of the Democratic spin turned out to be little more than hot air.” But, he adds, “Don’t read long-term trends into this election or any other. This country is changing, and that will have a long-term effect on our politics and our political parties. But elections reflect the here and now. Two years ago, that benefited Democrats. Today, it benefits Republicans. We don’t yet know what 2012 will look like, or what party or candidates will benefit from it.”

An important reminder: “The campaign for some candidates won’t end with today’s vote, with election officials and lawyers preparing for possible recount battles in several states,” AP writes. “The large number of too-close-to-call congressional races in such states as Colorado, Nevada, Illinois, and West Virginia has some observers predicting more contested elections and recounts this year. At the very least, a slow count of ballots in such states as Washington and Alaska is expected to keep many voters in suspense.”

Campaign of the weird: “Even in a campaign season defined by unconventional candidates, unpredictable outside groups and an unexpectedly large playing field, there is still plenty of opportunity for Election Day drama,” Roll Call says. “The tea party movement is dispatching thousands of political novices to monitor voting places today, Connecticut wrestling fans may be forced to shed branded clothing to vote, Alaska will feature the most important spelling bee in state history and widespread accusations of voter intimidation and voting fraud are likely.”


“As of Monday, outside groups had spent $294.4 million in the runup to Election Day, more than every other midterm cycle since 1990 combined, according to the Center for Responsive Politics’ OpenSecrets.org. This cycle’s price tag is also just shy of spending totals for unions and politically minded nonprofit organizations during the 2008 election cycle, when a protracted presidential campaign pushed outside spending to $301.7 million,” Roll Call writes.

“From Florida to California, third-party candidates pulling a point or two of the vote on Election Day might make the difference between winning and losing,” Roll Call’s Bellantoni writes. ‘Forty-seven is the new 50,’ a Democratic official closely watching House races told Roll Call. There are third-party House candidates in at least a dozen districts who will draw votes from Republicans and Democrats. In a regular election cycle, that might prove irksome, but this year it could be a blessing for embattled incumbents hoping to hold on to their seats during a rough night.” Watch: VA-5, NY-23, IN-9, FL-12, CO-4.

“The Senate might not have any African-American members after the election, when Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.), the only sitting black senator, vacates his seat,” The Hill reports. “Overall, the Senate has never had more than one black member at a time. Burris replaced President Obama in this distinction after filling his Illinois seat following the 2008 election. Before Obama, Carol Moseley Braun, also from Illinois, served from 1993 to 1999. In total, there have been six black senators since Reconstruction.”

“Voters in three states will cast ballots Tuesday on the new healthcare law's individual mandate to buy insurance,” The Hill reports. “Arizona and Oklahoma are expected to pass the state constitutional amendment, but it faces an uphill battle in Colorado.”

Political Wire has this fun reminder about convention wisdom: “Benjy Sarlin looks back to the 1994 midterm elections and finds nearly every forecaster predicted a Republican gain of 20-25 seats in the House of Representatives.”

Discuss this post

No more TEA please… all the swill that has been going around has the country’s stomach upset.

    Reply#1 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 9:10 AM EDT

    BE careful America. Dont suffer amnesia. Dont ruin this country further. It takes TIME to fix what took years to destroy.

    http://seattlepi.com/national/381680_bailout04.html

    "We all know that we are in the midst of a financial crisis," House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio said shortly before casting his vote for a massive government intervention in private capital markets that was unthinkable only a month ago....

    With the economy on the brink and elections looming, Congress approved an unprecedented $700 billion government bailout of the battered financial industry on Friday and sent it to President Bush who quickly signed it....

    Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson pledged to begin using his new authority quickly, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank would work closely with the administration.

    THE TEABAGGERS IN ANGER OVER THE BAILOUT PROMPTLY WANTED TO RETURN BOEHNER BACK TO POWER IN TWO YEARS IN REWARD FOR THE VOTE AND FOR THE ADMINISTRATION'S PROPOSAL OF IT. DONT LET THEM DRAG US ALL DOWN WITH THEIR FOOLISHNESS.

    • 1 vote
    #1.1 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 9:16 AM EDT

    Louisj, What's the matter? Don't like tea?

    • 1 vote
    #1.2 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 9:23 AM EDT

    I like water.

    • 2 votes
    #1.3 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 9:29 AM EDT
    Reply

    ...and, of course, Christine O'Donnell couldn't resist one last opportunity to pretend she's the victim before Election Day...

    http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/11/01/missing-christine-odonnell-video-dirty-politics-or-missed-de/

      Reply#2 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 9:13 AM EDT

      You gotta love TP ers, man. The jokes write themselves.

        #2.1 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 10:12 AM EDT
        Reply

        Hey FR, Strong finish , and fresh start for Repubs. The country will be humming with activity. Things will look up with free enterprise and working capital.

        • 1 vote
        Reply#3 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 9:28 AM EDT

        We've had free enterprise and working capital for the past 2 years. Why hasn't it worked.

          #3.1 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 9:40 AM EDT

          The uneducated rise early.... Republicans are for Capitalism, not free enterprise! juven should try a book, but not in Texas

          P.S. There is a difference in case you didn't know

            #3.2 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 10:11 AM EDT
            Reply

            I hope you not to enthused about the country humming along Juvenbachen. The republicans will keep their foot on the brake for the next two years so they don't have to really do anything.

              Reply#4 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 11:07 AM EDT

              I watched Bill Maher last night and was truely freightened by what was said at the end.... He stated "remember what happened last time we had a Dem President, with a Rep House?" He then held up a picture of Monica Leuinsky.

              If we get a republican house and senate, heres what we can expect:
              - A lengthy court case where they will try and prove obama is not a citizen, putting our country at risk due to the president being preoccupied with this stupid crap.
              - The Handing over of Medicare, Social Security, Obamacare to private companies that will DESTROY everything that we have worked for.
              - Lowering of taxes... yeah they will lower them... BUT the economy WILL CRUMBLE BEFORE OUR FEET.

              They call us Bleeding heart liberals because we feel for the less fortunate. I am PROUD to be a bleeding heart liberal, rather than a heartless republican.

              DBVR - Die Before Voting Republican. (hows that for bleeding heart)

              Thanks

              Tom

              • 1 vote
              Reply#5 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 11:17 AM EDT

              Don't worry Tom F, You won't die before voting Republican. You'll just wither

              away like Marx wrote in Das Capital.

                #5.1 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 12:52 PM EDT
                Reply

                Hampering Change & Demanding Change.

                  Reply#6 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 11:17 AM EDT

                  Frank H, Because the 5th Horseman of the American Economic Collapse is

                  a Progressive. And that idea of governance and his share the wealth never

                  worked anywhere in the world in the past. At least, capitalism worked that is

                  how America became a world power and very great in its exceptionalism. Your

                  idea is responisble for the death of millions in the past and is outdated. Oblaba is

                  picking up antiquated of socialism and again , its not working. In fact, it never worked.

                    Reply#7 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 12:48 PM EDT

                    The Dems, the Libs and the Progressives are choked up with sadness and tears.

                    I don't blame you. But there is one thing I don't understand. Some day or

                    somehow , the Repubs will have to win and then the Dems will win again and

                    then the repubs will win again and then the Dems will win again and then and

                    then and so on. So what's the BIG DEAL? The only big deal is that the Dems

                    periods will be a flat , boring society, with old people dying off like flies, humdrum

                    expensive living conditions, everybody on welfare and food stamps, and empty

                    stores with long lines, and the Republican periods will be humming with industrial

                    might, like in WWII, full human activity, a robust economy, not like what Oblaba

                    has given us, there will be no bailouts, or cash siphoned out to rich barons,

                    individual innovations and exceptionalism, space explorations etc. We have

                    evidence of socialist and progressive societies that have withered and died like

                    those of Russia and China. Now, China is a free enterprise society. See what I

                    mean?

                      Reply#8 - Tue Nov 2, 2010 1:23 PM EDT
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