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Subscribe to RSSFor the bustling industry comprised of political pundits, pollsters, strategists and scribes, the weeks before Election Day are a flurry of predictions about who will win the nation’s most competitive races.
When there’s plentiful public polling and stable national trends to base their assumptions upon, their prognostications are usually more or less close to the mark. But politics is unpredictable, and pollsters use different methods to determine who’s up and who’s down. Every once in a while, they get it wrong.
The famous erroneous 1948 “Dewey defeats Truman” banner headline in the first edition of the Chicago Tribune was the result of polls and conventional wisdom that turned out to be dramatically off base. After Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s unanticipated loss in the 1982 California governors’ race, many blamed racial bias undetected in public opinion polls. After Barack Obama’s dramatic win in the Iowa caucuses in 2008, the media’s overwhelming assumption that he would continue his march to victory days later in New Hampshire was due to polling. Those assumptions were shattered when Hillary Clinton wound up winning -- prompting weeks of media navel-gazing and questions of "how did we get it so wrong?"
In this midterm cycle, new poll results have hit political reporters’ e-mail inboxes at a fast and furious pace. But a quick look at the wide disparities between different polls of the same races indicates that they can’t all be right. Four recent public polls in the tight Nevada Senate race show Senate Majority leader Harry Reid everywhere from down four points to up three. Much-discussed “tightening” in the Pennsylvania Senate race two weeks ago gave way to another wide lead for Republican Pat Toomey days later.
Part of the reason for the disparity between the results, says Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, is because every polling company has its own method to determine which voters are “likely” to turn out.
“Some of the measures that people use to determine whether someone’s a likely voter sometimes have no relationship whatsoever to whether people actually do turn out or not,” Mellman said.
His example: Some pollsters use voters’ self-reported “enthusiasm” as an indicator of which voters are most likely to make it to the polls. But even though it seems like fired-up voters should be the most reliable ones, there isn’t always an exact correlation. Voters who are lukewarm at best about their candidates may still feel an obligation to cast a ballot; passionate citizens who are contacted by pollsters in mid-October may ultimately procrastinate when Election Day comes.
Another reason for variation is that some polls, especially those that use automated recordings rather than live questioners, cannot legally contact cell phone users. That means that many pollsters are limited to contacting landline users, who are likely to be older and less transient.
(The NBC News political unit, like many other major news organizations, does not use automated interactive voice response (IVR) polls in determining its race ratings. There are a plethora of such surveys, in part because IVR polls can cost as little as 10 percent of the cost of a live-interview poll.)
Additionally, survey information that is collected in the course of a single night tends to be biased towards what Mellman calls “the easy-to-reach” – voters who are more likely to be home in the evenings to answer the phone. “People that are harder to reach are much more likely to vote for Democratic candidates,” Mellman argues. “If you just look at the people you get on the first dial, you have a sample that looks much more favorable towards Republican candidates.”
While there are many different public polls of statewide gubernatorial and Senate races, there are far fewer widely-released surveys of House contests. Campaigns conduct internal polls that often offer fairly accurate snapshots of races, but they generally only release them to the media if the numbers are good for their candidate.
“You’ve got a lot of House polls that are selectively cherry-picked for the press,” says David Wasserman, who tracks House races for the Cook Political Report. That makes the states of individual races much more difficult for voters to wrap their heads around, he said.
He added that midterm elections, because they don’t have the reliably high turnout of election years with a presidential race at the top of the ticket, can be more prone to surprises.
“Smaller electorates are more difficult to predict,” said Wasserman, whose latest rankings show a whopping 100 competitive House races, including 50 tossups.
Still, although individual races may be difficult to gauge, most pundits agree that Republicans are poised to take control of the House but that the 10 seats they would need to take the Senate are likely out of reach.
And there’s one thing that’s for sure.
“Democrats will have a tough night,” said NBC’s Chuck Todd. “It's how tough that is the unknown.”
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The polls are nothing to hang your hat on. They vary sometimes 5 points in the same day for difference sites altho they may be fun to watch.
This whole uproar is over job loss and the economy but no one seems to want to remember that outsourcing of our jobs has been going on for years. The economy tanked during the Bush watch and 2.6 million jobs were lost in 2008. We were pounded into the ground for 8 long years and Obama is supposed to come along and be the miracle man in 20 months. The Bush debts were also passed onto Obama just like Clinton's surplus was handed to Bush.
Sure have a lot of short memories out there!
The economy tanked during the Bush watch and 2.6 million jobs were lost in 2008
It amazes me that you liberals forget that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid took over both houses of Congress in January 2007 and under their leadership and with Democrat majorities, they destroyed this nation. Congress enacts laws, passes budgets and is responsible for the spending in this nation. You also forget Fannie and Freddie and that fact that during the Clinton administration, the rules for qualifying for a mortgage were watered down in order to allow more people to buy a home.
Bravo! Yes the Dems in total control since January 2007 caused November 2008 not George Bush- The Congress - not the president- is responsible for budgets and spending. How is it that most Dems do not know what a 5th grader knows? Could it be most are not as smart in government matters? Or is there blind hatred for anything that gets in the way of their preconceived and misguided views. Dems are so blinded by their hate and vitriol and the entitlement mentality that has been drummed into them, they are incapable of any rational thought. Since 1965 the Dems have created 130 TRILLION dollars in unfunded liabilities, even though we only take in 3 TRILLION per year in total revenues. They did this to create a dependent social underclass that is totally dependent upon them, loyal and votes to keep them in power. Last year 47% of citizens paid no income taxes! Does anyone with a brain think that can continue? We are insolvent and bankrupt. We only stay the crisis because we can print our own currency and sell our debt. DEms have created an economic tsunami that is going to hit our shores and when it does we will have unprecedented suffering-by all!!!
Typical mindless party automaton statement with no basis of fact. Dems use Animal farm logic "two legs good 4 legs bad" to try and justify their misguided, outdated and failed paradigms. Socialsim has failed, or is failing, everywhere it has been implemented. Dems are Socialists/Progressives that believe in Keynesian economics, which has also failed everywhere it has been tried. Simple stated, you cannot have more people receiveing "free stuff" (which is not free), than there are those producing it. We are almost to that point. Last year 47% of all citizens paid no income taxes, and the upper 5% of that remaining 53% paid 95% of all taxes. Class warfare is the aged old tactic of Communists, Socialsits and Fascists. If you hate and envy the rich which one are you?
Yes, the all mighty democratic party completely derailed the economy in 1 year 10 mos, after the Republican party kept us safe and didn't add 1 penny to the deficit.... and if you believe that, then I have some property for you to look at.
Polls can't predict all of the voter fraud that will go on today. Dead people, illegal immigrants, voting more than once, internet voting fraud and election machines that have a candidate "pre-selected" when you arrive at the booth. I think it is a shame that we don't investigate these crimes more often and throw the book at those that are diluting the will of the people.
Hahahaha! Love the liberal media desperation!! A headline no less. Hey Carrie! It's 2010 NOT 1948!! I think our pollsters are a little more sophisticated than in 1948. Nice try and nice job getting as a headline on the website.
Carrie also mentioned more recent instances where polls were dead wrong. Guess you didn't read that part of the article, Potts.
I for one would like to know who is being polled, when they were polled, how the pollsters got the numbers of the people they contacted, and how they picked out who to contact.
I have yet to hear from anyone on any blogs on any news site how he/she was contacted by a pollster. If I'm wrong, please speak up and I will rescind my statement.
It seems no one is taking into consideration the drastic decrease in land-line phone users. Also, you can bet that minorities such as blacks, Hispanics, and naturalized citizens are probably not being contacted. Additionally, not everyone declares party affiliation when they register to vote. Are pollsters contacting the "unknowns" out there? And finally please define the term "likely voters" that pollsters keep tossing around. Who declares them likely, the pollsters or those being polled?
I think polling is BS, period.
Democats do not have a chance bookies in the Uk have already paid off bets placed on the republcains taking the house!!
Lets hope the polls are wrong and even more incumbents lose their seats today.
I think the No. 1 priority for this country today is making sure that voter fraud is kept to a minimum (and better yet, none at all) and when there is that it is taken care of swiftly and fixed and people are charged with a federal crime. This is more important for our country than who wins and loses because we all lose in the end when fraudulent votes are counted as legal. We don't want another episode like Coleman and Franken which should have woken every U.S. citizen up to how corrupt some of us have gotten and also how much they have gotten away with without any punishment whatsoever. (How many phony votes will be found in the trunks of cars, trash barrels, people's front yards that Secretaries of States will deem legal after a fancy show of checking them out?) So, whichever way it goes, may it go honestly.
MSNBC wishes the polls were wrong. It'll be a good night to watch the Three Stooges (maddow, olbermann and matthews). I can't wait. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
remember former soviet union and north korea? the liberal dems are firing up their voter fraud machine just like those rats.
Just like nearly everything in this great country of ours, the polls are rigged too.
I got your poll....swingin.
Rorschach: Nice post. It's a timely reminder that the repugnicans need a good old fashioned Rorschach test, and maybe a little short term memory therapy as well.
The Democratic Party owned media tries to compare the scientific polls of today with 1948? That is desperation. Rasmussen is never wrong and always errs on the side of safety. The Dems Left wing agenda is being refuted and so are its super partisan leaders. If will be hilarious to see Obama grovel and change positions every 20 minutes in order to save his job. Biden is going to be kicked to the curb and Hillary will be brought up from the basement to be his running mate for 2012-it is the only chance he has. Only time will tell if the Republicans will self-destruct as they did with Frist and Hastert and if a charismatic Leader can come to the forefront to challenge Obama/Clinton.
Well im in a very concertive little burg,and at 8 AM my ballot was #1216 In and out quickly! Thats a lot for here.
The richest in this country didn't work for their money but inherited or screwed their employee's for it. Never seen a rich man ever serve in a combat zone either. During the Vietnam war all the rich kids went to college to hide with about 40 percent ever finishing. Some got their girlfriends knocked up or better yet joined the guard. Rich folks need to pay their share and after all they make the most with out work.
Idiot! The upper 5% pay 95% of all taxes. Do some research before you make stupid statements that show your ignorance and envy of those that do better than you. Class warfare is all the Dems have to sway simple minded people who envy those that have done something with their lives. And by the way most rich do not inheirit their wealth, the Dems took care of that. Most earn it the old fashioned way by taking risks and starting businesses. God save us from mindless Democratic drones!
Sometimes its helpful to refute fiction with fact. Some people just prefer to live in their little fantasy world.
http://www.allegromedia.com/sugi/taxes/#Head-1.htm
The Dems have a history of fixing elections going back to the 1850s. They are the ones that pushed for electronic voting machines, and now we find out that SEIU union members service and program those machines. These machines can be hacked and programmed to achieve any result. We are already seeing widespread complaints in key battleground states, so who knows if the "fix" is in or not. It is sad when the Dems have to resort to their time honored tradition of "vote early and vote often" in order to stay in power. Withcorrupt Chicago thugs running the White House and Democratic Party-who knows what they are capable of. We may have to have Jimmy Carter oversee our election like he did when he certified Hugo Chavez's "fair" &"legal' landslide. LOL
Polls are a joke. I am an african american and no one ever polled me or any members of my friends. Therefore, we were never counted, but we showed up so count that:)
This Caucasian American has never been polled either. I too will be "showing up" by casting my vote and continuing to work hard, take care of my family and paying my taxes.
And I will continue to work hard, take care of my family, take care of my country and pay my taxes like I always have as well. And I already showed up.
THANK YOU hedward!!! Couldn't put it better myself! Amazing, isn't it how those who would rather stay home on their couch, watch TV, drink beer and wait for their well-fare check are the same ones who want the dems to stay in power... There are people who actually DO need a well-fare check, people who fought for this country or are truly disabled so I'm not saying there shouldn't be well-fare. What I am saying is that those who can should work and pay taxes and not expect to be taken care of by the government! Oh, and BTW, for those of you who think I am some rich person who was born with a silver spoon in my moth, you couldn't any more wrong! Far from it... In fact, many times we struggle to make ends meet!
Wow....where did welfare come from? Is it because I stated I was African American????
I have never received a welfare check in my entire life, nor was I raised on the system and I choose to vote How I want to. I make $20/hour+ and I graduated from college. Started working for the government while in high school at 16 and have worked for the company I work for today for the past 13 years. I have been employed with no breaks in between except for vacation or sick pay. And I am only 34 years old so I plan to work the next 30+ years until I am able to retire or am able to retire early from owning my own business.
Besides....I don't sit on the couch and I definately don't drink beer. Well the only time I may sit around is on Saturday's and Sunday's because I am off on the weekends...Other than that I am at work M-F doing my part.
Thank you and have a blessed day....and you are the reason I vote:).
Sorry, I actually did not mean to be disrespectful... I did not say well-fare because you said you were African American and in no way do I believe that African American people are the ones who sit on the couch and drink beer. Believe me, I know a lot of Caucasians who do just that! But I did grow up in a socialist society and I know what it means to have the government tell you how you can and can not live! The truth is the bigger the government the smaller the person. Trust me I know what I am talking about... Also, I don't care what race anyone in power is... That's not the point! The point is if you're going to make promises in order to get elected, you should keep them! Period!
Your statement "Amazing, isn't it how those who would rather stay home on their couch, watch TV, drink beer and wait for their well-fare check are the same ones who want the dems to stay in power..." caused me to be offended because I want the dems to stay in power; however, I do not fit into any of the stereotypical categories you listed.
This is the kind of thing that the Obamatons are fighting to protect. If you aren't on the dole or a member of one of the favored unions, how is this helping YOU AND YOUR FAMILY?
Republicans cannot cure all of the ills and they may even create some of their own but it is clear that if we leave this Marxist president completely unchecked America will be changed beyond recognition. They admit to their desire to do that. They hate the America that most of us love and cherish.
* 10,581 people got $65.6 million in Homebuyer Credits they didn't qualify for.
* 109,665 individuals got $29.7 million in Making Work Pay and Government Retiree credits they didn't qualify for.
* 5,345 people wrongly received $15.6 million in Plug-in Vehicle credits.
* 171 got $453,220 in erroneous Nonbusiness Energy Property credits.
* 2,933 received more than $95.8 million in excessive Qualified Motor Vehicle Tax deductions.
We now know the Homebuyer's Tax Credit didn't stop housing's slide. Instead, we simply paid a couple million people $7,000 to $8,000 apiece to buy homes they would have bought anyway.
Worse, over 10,000 people got an $8,000 Homebuyer's Credit fraudulently. Many were under 18 years old -- the youngest was just 4. Thousands were incarcerated prisoners. Thousands more never bought homes or bought them before the law took effect.
Even IRS employees got in on the action -- George has (so far) found 53 of them who fraudulently claimed the credit.
The inspector general also identified nearly 40,000 people who got $15.2 million in Making Work Pay Credits (a credit designed to reduce payroll withholding taxes), despite not having a valid Social Security number.
Most of these people were likely illegal aliens working with fake documents. Almost none of them even tried to claim the tax credit -- IRS software automatically computed and paid the credit. The computers weren't told to check for valid Social Security numbers.
To recap: Obama and Congress' Democratic leaders promised us they had a solution to the recession and the 7.6 percent jobless rate he inherited -- vast "stimulus" spending. His top economic adviser, Christine Romer, told us that the spending bill would generate 3,650,000 jobs -- keeping unemployment to 8 percent or less, when it would otherwise go to 9 percent.
Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/stimulus_to_fraud_fllIY9KNNm8EG35CtoNMcI#ixzz148XXOvER
Go Dems 2010!!!!! I already voted early. Come on Left leaning people. Keep Democratic policy alive. Own your Accomplishments.
Lets keep taking this Country Forward!!!!!!!
Vote Democrats 2010!!!!!
I hear you! I voted early! Democrats, don't give up! Nobody "polled" me! The only poll that matters is the final tally tonight!
Peace
Go Democrats 2010!!!!
Wow! Democrats must really be shaking in their boots... The voting barely started and here they are having their minions write articles about how polls can be wrong... Gee, can ya' get any more insecure! Sorry but people are just not going to be bamboozled anymore! Since the last presidential election things haven't just stayed the same, they've gotten worse! Soooo... Can we say "change is coming"? Yes, we can!! :) :) :)
I wonder how many dead people will cast a vote today?
Why do the dearly departed always vote for Dems?
That's nothing compared to the illegals. They actually pay illegals to "get out the vote". Illegals taking illegals to the polls! Keep paying those taxes, suckers!
i dont know people i have been reading these blogs. alot are full of misdirected facts. when democrats took back congress in 06. the 2005 deficit was less than 300billion dollars, unemployment was stalled at 4.5% which democrats crow as fullemployment capabilities.
since 06 the democrats statrted to spend like drunken sailors. in 4 years they ran the deficit up 5 trillion dollars. also every year unemployment kept rising and rising. when the crisis in 07 arose. bush sent a 200 billion dollar bailout to congress. in one weekend after pelosi and reid had it, it balloned to over 500billion dollars. even the biased media had to admit ot was fulll of so much pork to almostgive america a heart attack. it was amazing how could you send a 5 page bill to congress for 200 billion and in 3 days it balloons to well over 2000 pages with a extra 300 billion dollars.
then for some reason seeing victory assured in 08 thery sat on their hands and let america burn all for political gain. after 08 being who they were arrogant and dumb they decide to rob the bank and give america the finger. well to their dismay judgement day is here. enjoy what you have done to yourselves and future america.
but republicans are on a 2 year leash. if they go back to the lets all get along attitude. i truly believe in 2012 their will be enough people to throw both parties under the bus or as obama says in the back! hey the only enemy in america is you! enjoy your vacation in india on americas dime. pathetic!
Im sorry, I don't get it. Dewey's predicted win was 62 years ago. Does that mean that in 2010 we should all turn to liberal slanted newspapers to find the false predictions.
Vote to restore freedom from less government, less spending and less taxation.
Time4truth...You are sooo NOT a Democrat. You think Bush did ANYTHING to help prevent or fix a recession? Please stop trying to insult everyone's intelligence with that garbage.
People get the government they deserve. Dems are weak minded simpletons. They lap up the pablum that Obama and his minions vomit up on a regular basis. Dems are ready and willing to sell their votes to anyone who promises to give them money out of someone else's pocket. That is the last stage of a democracy, before it deteriorates into totalitarianism or dictatorship. If you didn't sleep through HS governent class you would know that. The democrats I know are simpletons, every one. It is beyond their abilty to see through things and get at the root of a problem. It is amazing to me. I am not just talking politics, but at work. The ones I work with, and that report to me, just cannot comprehend how to solve a problem. It isn't any wonder that they want the government to take care of them. It saddens me to see what this country is coming to. Thank god I live in Texas and that we have had a string of good govenors, including G. W. Bush. During this recession when Obamanomics has continued to ruin the country, Texas has gained more jobs than just about all the other states combined, accounting for 85% of the nation's new jobs. And still Obama and his supporters want to "fix" Texas. What they can't stand is that Texas is doing things its own way and it is working, while everything Obama does fails.
If i'm not mistaking......It was that man from Texas Mr. George Bush who got us into this mess....Go TEXAS! What worked for Texas sure didn't work for America:)
Newsflash!!! This is not a new story. Restating the obvious is a desperate attempt to fool some voters. Typical liberal news media ploy.
Dave- the rich own the media. There is no liberal mass media. If you want to talk about liberal media, critique the independents- because everything mainstream is solidly rightward-leaning- and only appears even moderate next to the rabid idiocy of Fox.