In the second half of October, Democrats saw a slight improvement in voter confidence, but not likely enough to avoid big losses in the House, according to the latest numbers in NBC's Voter Confidence Index.
With the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, the October monthly VCI average is now -36, down from -35. But the numbers also show a split between the first half of October and the second half. Democrats have touted recent upticks in polling in various states, and the VCI bares that out.
In the first two weeks of October, the VCI was -41, an all-time low in Obama's presidency. But the last two weeks showed a -32 average.
That should be little solace, however, to Democrats.
Historically, numbers like that are bad for the party in power. In 1982, when Ronald Reagan was president and unemployment was at 10%, the VCI was -35 -- and the GOP lost 26 seats.
In 1994, when Bill Clinton was president, the VCI was -30, and Democrats lost 54 seats.
For more, check out http://VCI.msnbc.com.