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LAS VEGAS -- The dead-heat race between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Tea Party-backed Republican Sharron Angle comes down to a contest between the efficiency and effectiveness of a well-oiled get-out-the-vote organization and the energy and enthusiasm of a grass roots movement .
Fresh data from the Nevada Secretary of State's office on in-person early voting, which ended at 9 p.m. Friday, suggests the power of each side -- and leaves the outcome too-close-to-call.
With the official Election Day two days away, 379,589 Nevada voters have already gone to the polls -- about 60 to 65 percent of the Secretary of State's projected turnout of about 700,000. A late surge of registered Democrats voting gave the party a 42.9%-41.1% edge in registered voters -- though which candidate they voted for isn't known. Chalk one up for an organization?
But Republicans turned out for early voting in a greater proportion than their registration numbers; Republicans make up 36.7 percent of registered voters. A sign of the power of the Tea Party movement?
And while the last Mason-Dixon poll, which gave Angle a statistically insignificant 4 percentage point lead, give Reid 84% of the Democrats and Angle 85% of the Democrats, Angle led among independents 55%-38%. But only 16% of early voters were independents, while 21.3% of registered voters are independents.
Both candidates remain very unpopular: 56% -- a record -- say they had unfavorable opinion of Reid and 45% said the same thing of Angle. Still, only 2% of those surveyed said they would chose "none of the above," which is an option in all statewide Nevada elections.
Sandoval leads Rory Reid by wide margin
While one Reid is locked in a tight battle in Nevada, another Reid on the statewide ballot is trailing badly.
Rory Reid, the embattled Senate majority leader's son and chairman of the state's biggest county's commissioners, trails Republican Brian Sandoval, a former federal judge, 54%-38% in a new Las Vegas Review-Journal/KLAS-TV poll. Sandoval beat the scandal-ridden incumbent, Jim Gibbons (R), in the Republican primary.
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The good news for Democrats is that they are currently ahead based on early voting turnout. This tells us that there is a big problem with the polls. Majority of voters this year do not have land-line phones so they have never been reached by the pollsters. Pollsters can only reach people with land-line phones which is currently a small percentage compared to voters who have cellphone.
Majority of over 12,000,000 people who have so far voted early have voted for Democrats. If Democrats were less enthusiastic than Republicans as the pollsters have been saying, we would not be having this kind of early voting trend putting Democrats ahead.
I can assure you that this trend is going to continue like this till Tuesday evening when the polls close.
Keep up the GREAT work Sam!
Concise and to the point!
Even Michael Steele is crab walking his 'blood bath' expectations BACK! lol
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/31/michael-steele-house-elections_n_776598.html
I disagree with your assumptions about cellphones versus landline phones.
Many landline phone owners are also homeowners--people with roots (mortgages, families) all indicators of responsibilities.
These are the average, middle class folks that the Dems despise and who WILL show up in droves on Tuesday to vote against Obama the Pole Turtle.....by casting their votes for Angle.
Not clear on your point here, Fleur. Is it not also true that many cell-phone-only users are also homeowners? I no longer have a landline, but I do have a mortgage, a business and a family. I'm average, middle class and...wait for it...a Democrat.
Sam, I hope you're right. Gallup says they do survey the 25 - 30% of voters that have cell phones and make sure a similar percentage is included in their results. They claim this is possible because the larger pollsters are able to identify the blocks of numbers assigned to cellphones and randomly call those numbers. I can play devil's advocate and argue that most cell users are either working or in school and may not want to take a political call or waste their cell minutes on it. I suppose we'll soon find out if they're correct, but I hope you're right. Good luck.
THIS IS SENATOR HARRY REIDS ULTIMATUM TO THE TAXPAYERS OF AMERICA
All I know about Senator Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer and generally--ALL--Liberal Democrats are that they are genuflecting to illegal aliens and an Liberal-Dem Incumbent returns means Amnesty for the 13 to 20 million living here. Reid has affirmed that in the Lame Duck session of the Senate he will pass this abhorrent Amnesty to criminals. What remains is the silence, about the cost of $2.6 Trillion dollars, to make it comfortable for illegal aliens which will come out of taxpayers’ pockets; added to the 13. 5 Trillion Federal Debt we already have accumulated. The far left progressives have already voted for the illegal invasion and to extend our Social Security to them, even the ones who never paid into the system (May 2007) GOOGLE—On The Issues website.
Under another reign of the Liberal Democrats, America might just as well open the border gates wide; demolish the half-completed fence between our Southern border and the other side. Then have Senator Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer, Russell Feingold, Jerry Brown, standing at each entrance handing out maps, welfare chits, a brand new Social security cards, a drivers’ license and about $600 dollars of taxpayer money. Hey! Reid says we can take more foreigners into our midst, as we only have 15 million citizens and legal residents, looking for a job, while 8.6 illegal nationals are gainfully employed. Have every Democrats lackey stand outside each border hospital and proffer to every pregnant woman, who reached America a brand new birth certificate, for the potential instant citizenship baby, a check for the public benefit line and a signup sheet for low income Section 8 housing—so the whole family can join them.
Additionally, for every child they now have from now on, food stamps, cash payments and a medicade card for future pregnancies. The wives can churn out more children to become immediate citizens and swell our schools to overload, where nobody is learning because the teachers have to first contend with children, where English is a second language. In California where 18.9 percent of the kids drop-out of high school, because many teachers don't comprehend English, as they have been recruited from South of the border. Democrats could lay-off the US Border patrol, the DEA, ICE and other policing authorities, so that the uneducated, those carrying contagious diseases, the destitute and other foreign peons could take the jobs of our own impoverished workforce.
Maybe the Catholic Church and other religious groups will take the illegal nationals into their homes, feed them. Perhaps we should place notices in every barrio, ghetto around the world and have these nonsensically politicians procure military aircraft, to fly in every foreign national, every criminal and terrorist into our nation. Have fleets of buses waiting to transport them, to every corner of America, with stop-offs at hospitals for the sick, mentally handicapped and old. We should have ambulances waiting at the border or airport terminals, to drive those individual who must get immediate dialysis, prescription drugs or a major surgery. With the Obama's new medical care reform most of these special issues will be recognized, as illegal aliens will have no insurance or any ability to pay for physician’s treatment.
They walk away completely free of paying and once again the taxpayer-patsy will get the bill, while citizens will be chased down by obnoxious debt collectors. Taxpayers can foot the bill as they have always done and my guess always will, unless these corrupt politicians on both sides of the aisle in Washington actually work for the American people. That’s why THE TEA PARTY has risen in a revolution, to halt the corruption and greed of both parties. GOOGLE—NumbersUSA website and Judicial Watch and learn about the deep seated corruption Google—Illegal alien costs and read highly regarded reports from unbiased sources.
If we vote back the hidden Liberals, it will be self inflicted wounds. Attention should be drawn to illegal aliens voting, as Senator Reid's is there only real chance of the passage of---AMNESTY.
Another sign , from Sky God, that anyone not of your Religious beliefs is evil.
Another Sky God moment brought to by, "TeaPartyarefools.org"
You Mangle street Social Conservative, "we know your code!"
Another sign, that you have no clue what your talking about.
" Another Sign" okay we get it but, please use "another sign to signal your sky god screech" Batman has the coolest one anyway! What's a secularr person to do!
Leave the your hate at the door and then we can talk aboutt illegals.
The dems are leading the early vote because you had all the unions and alike saying vote early and most of the republicans are going to vote Nov 2nd theres no rush .....lol ...the end is near.
Ever since Barack Obama won, the GOP has been in constant whine mode. Seems to me nothing much has changed in this country except we have a very intelligent President, attempting to do the right things. He's not getting much help from an entire political party though. They have been promising us that the world is going to end!!!! Democracy is going to end!!!! The only ones I see stopping democracy are the thugs out on Republicans Rand Paul and Joe Miller's campaign trail. And Christine O'Donnell snapping her fingers at one of her campaign people. Here! Come here! Take this tape! I'm in Sean Hannity's pocket!!!
And to think. The Republicans spent so much time and effort creating this mess for President Obama just so they could blame him single handedly for the fiasco they have wrought upon us all. The heck with us during these trying times. Their incompetence didn't end with the Bush Administration. Obviously.
Well, their nutty legislation isn't going to go anywhere. Not with the way the Senate races are shaping up.
Joe Miller out would be a gift to us all. He is a horrible horrible candidate. Probably the worst of them all.
MediaMatters is reporting that whatever Madam Palin said this morning on Fox, they can't seem to verify her comments. Lol.
"http://swineline.org/media"
Obama has done more in the 2 years than he is given credit for. He inherited the deficit everybody is blaming him) ended the Iraq war started by Bush and killed thousands of our young men( Bush- does it bother you at night or you dont care?)
If peope read the what the Republican crazy candidates are talking about, the country will go into disaster- privatize VA( Angle) get rid of Social security ( her husband gets it) get rid of Dept of Education, take your arms and have a revulotion! This is scary and totally stupid and you people want to vote this Angle? She says she will answer the questions when she is a Senator? Hello, answer them now so people can decide. all these Tea party candidates are whacky- O Donnell will do withcraft in Washington, Sharon Angle will start a revolution if she does not get what she wants, Rand Paul and his radical ideas, a Republican candidate who pretends he is a Nazi?- Are these the people we want to run our Govt?
Hell No. Vote Democrats!!!!They will win!
Cion,
If Obama has done so much good, why don't Democrats that are running for re-election endore his policies? Bobby Bright doesn't even mention he's a Democrat in his ads, also Allen Boyd of Florida.
Obama didn't end the war in Iraq, that was already in place in 2008. Your Soldier comment make me sick.................the rest of you post is too silly to even comment on.
Here is the view point of the youth regarding Sharron Angle:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZlhSY_5_fo
Obama didnt end the war the surg that he was against ended it and actualy its still giong on with 50,000 troops there . all he has done is went around the middlie east kissing !@#@! as you can tell by the way they act ....example Iran ... As for Bush yep he rolled over he should vetod evrything pelosi sent up remember the dems had control of congress since 2006 they attached every spending bill they could think of to the funding of the war and if Bush vetod it they would say he doesnt care about the troops .... and he had to fund the troops !!!!
You write nonsense Kevin, next time engage your brain before posting.
Nice to see you here today GM! ;0)
As for Kevin - his serious lack of spelling, grammar & punctuation proves he's only another lazy low information voter spewing the right wingers rhetoric.
Nothing to see here folks...
Check the funding for the war after 2006... tell me the only thing on those bills was just war related .
You correct Keven, Gingerbread didn't have any facts so all she as is insults.
If you think there's nothing going on in Iraq today Ginger, you might want to wake up.
We need to put party idealogy on the back burner and put country first. We are all Americans and our country is in trouble. If you think this country can survive with porous borders, uncontrolled government spending,cradle to grave nanny welfare state, government run health care (seriously? ie. Medicaire fraud, Amtrak, Post Office, budget deficits, FEMA, Illegal Immigration ad infinitum...), weak foreign policy and an imbalance of power that resembles a dictatorship you are deluded. The last election was sold to American people on a change platform. We received the same as before times ten! This administration and congress demonized fellow Americans as evil and racist for wanting conservative responsible government. They sue fellow Americans in Arizona for protecting themselves and their borders. They villainize corporations, banks, car companies, insurance industry, oil & gas companies, utilities etc. and wonder why there's no hiring. Fellow Americans that are successful financially and contribute greatly to the economy and tax base are being portrayed as evil and need to pay more to "balance the playing field". These people create wealth and jobs for us. Congress gives themselves raises and buys new jets while millions of Americans are out of work and losing their homes. They sign bills without reading them. This is disgraceful! Is this the America you want for your children? How many more lies will you delude yourself into believing just to say your own respective party won. How long can you defend government that cannot keep its own house in order. Vote out the party in power to restore balance and stop this leftist march towards progressive socialism. Get rid of career politicians, elect fresh faces with new common sense ideas. In Brazil voters sent a message, voting in a real circus clown on the platform "He couldn't do any worse". Maybe we should do the same.
First sentence implores us to put ideology on the back burner. Second to last sentence says we are on a march towards socialism. I wonder what it would have said if the author hadn't put ideology aside.
@fleur1299139 You are mistaken the average middle class has been under attack by the republicans since Jan. 21, 1981
when Reagan made unions and taxes for the rich dirty words....without unions there wouldn't BE a middle class
Obama has sunk faster than most of us thought he would. He comes off as arrogant and aloof. Because of his horrible performance, he has hurt minorities from being elected to future office. Hi will be our African American Jimmy Carter.
What the youth think of Sharron Angle and her wonderful promises:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZlhSY_5_fo
girls and fellows--
For God's sake, put mind in gear before speaking!
The Tea Party has a point: things are miserable. But the Party has chosen to hold the wrong people responsible. Our current economic disaster was designed and created largely by the leadership of the national Republican party, aided by some Democrats.
We are hugely in debt because the Bush Adm. threw away the splendid surplus he inherited from Clinton, radically cut taxes on the rich and then, without even trying to pay for it, launched us into an unnecessary and--exactly because it was unnecessary--immoral war in Iraq, one that has caused immense suffering, shattered our reputation around the world, cost us the chance to destroy our real enemies in Afghanistan and elsewhere, and led us into a tar-pit we'll likely be stuck in for years. To blame Obama for the mess he inherited, and blame him further because his opposition in Congress deliberately crippled his ability to do anything is worse than silly, it's ignorant. And to call him a dictator or a Nazi--come on. guys, grow up!
It doesn't seem to make any difference what candidate we're talking about, Obama always ends up getting slammed. He was also getting slammed before he even sat down in the oval office. How can some of you loons say with a straight face that your hate isn't racial? Disgusting!
Here's how most of the international community see's the senatorial race right now:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZlhSY_5_fo
Let's get it together!
Angle is in real trouble when 15% of republicans say they will vote for Reid. I've been told by many republicans they are voting for Reid. I've only found one Democrat who is voting for Angle.