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Subscribe to RSSIt’s been a recurrent theme throughout the last days of this midterm election cycle: “New poll shows [Insert Senate race that didn’t seem competitive three weeks ago] is tightening.”
According to some polls, candidates in a handful of states have made apparent gains after months of trailing. In Pennsylvania, two new surveys show Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak – who has struggled to stay within striking distance of Republican Pat Toomey since the state’s May primary – now polling within the margin of error. A St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio poll released Tuesday put Democrat Russ Feingold just two points behind GOP nominee Ron Johnson. In the pricey (and contentious) California Senate contest, a new PPIC poll shows GOP candidate Carly Fiorina catching up with incumbent Barbara Boxer. Gaps have also seemingly closed in Colorado and Alaska.
But what does “tightening” really mean, other than more fodder for analysts dissecting the state of the races?
Experts and pollsters contend it’s a normal part of the campaign life cycle.
“There’s just a natural tightening of races,” says Nathan Gonzales, who analyzes races for the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.
In the final weeks before a competitive statewide election, when activists are working to fire up their base and television audiences face a closing barrage of paid political advertising, voters begin to pay attention.
In this cycle, that especially means Democratic voters.
“The tightening is just mostly about more Democrats showing support for Democratic candidates,” added Gonzales. “There are folks who are calling this ‘a Democratic surge’ – I’m just not ready to call it that."
In some cases, Republicans might have already been mobilized because their side of the political spectrum was simply more interesting early on in their state's campaign contests.
In the Wisconsin Senate race, for instance, Democrat Feingold did not face a contested primary, while Republican candidates in other state races were forced to duke it out for their nominations.
“Democrats and Democratic-leaners just weren’t really all that involved in what was going on politically,” said Dr. Wendy Scattergood of St. Norbert College. “Their side wasn’t where the drama was.”
But now, Scattergood says, those Democrats may be tuning in and rallying behind their nominee.
Television ads could also be playing a role in mobilizing Democratic-leaners – and perhaps changing some minds within the dwindling but crucial bloc of undecided or soft “lean” voters.
Dr. G. Terry Madonna, polling director at Franklin & Marshall College, noted that a series of recent Pennsylvania polls appear to show a slight improvement for Sestak in the Philadelphia suburbs, where Democrats must perform well to retain retiring Sen. Arlen Specter’s seat. That bump, he said, may have been aided by advertisements criticizing Toomey’s vote to normalize trade relations with China. Democrats say the policy has led to job losses in the state.
Madonna says that there does appear to be some tightening in the race but that more independent polling is necessary to prove that the contest is really neck-and-neck. Two polls in the last two days have shown the contest within the margin of error, but various other automated or partisan polls have shown Toomey retaining a high single-digit lead.
While new poll releases are the bread-and-butter of political reporting and analysis, there is some truth to the hackneyed stump line that "the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day." There is often wide variety in how pollsters identify and classify the voters most likely to cast a ballot.
“Ultimately, polling isn’t about how people are going to vote. It’s about who is going to actually show up at the polls,” said Gonzales.
That, he added, is very difficult to predict.
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Fox has alot to answer for in this country.... so many idiots
anyway... here is my futile attempt to help educate you fReaks
1) the bailout... the govt is MAKING money back.... not a bad result when you save country from depression caused by Republican shills for Corp America (and make money).
2) the deficit... bush prescription expansion costs MORE than all other funding approved including TARP (see 1 above)
3) hyprocrits.... if you don't want govt treading on you, GIVE BACK $$$ you have received or are going to receive regarding medicare, social security, and any other govt benefit you receive... AND don't complain when corporate america ships you or your son's or granddaughter's job to China, they move in with you cause they can't afford the american dream, and you go into debt to pay their healthcare costs...or worse yet.... watch someone die cause you can't afford to help.... ( I guess you will always have God and a Gun...so you can put them (you) out of their misery and then thank God for all your rights....)
Wake up... Lesson endeth
Hey Mick-I'll bet you bought that explanation hook, line, and sinker when someone else explained it to you that way.
I'll be you're a real successful person; a real winner!
Take care, buddy!
Amen Mick, they are like blind lambs to the slaughter. I just don't know what their motivation is as it does not take a great deal of intelligence to know these things but they seem to not get it.
What I don't understand is why the Tea Party is synonymous with teaching Creationism in our schools. Why must fiscal common sense coincide with scientific medievalism?
Is someone going to investigate the US Chamber of Commerce and that right wing-nut crook Carl Rove? Now is the perfect oppurtunity to catch that liar in the act and put him away once and for all.
Is someone going to investigate the crooks in the congress and the White House? Oh yea the GOP will do that when they take the house! Then the real DEMO crooks will pay for their crimes!
GOP does not have the will to do anything, where have you been the last 18 months. The Democrats have no fear of those lazy GOOFS!
Yes they may come into office and investigate the White House and not do a thing to better this country, then just to find out they wasted time and money on BS, they will find them guilty of crimes just like they found weapons of mass distruction in Iraq, how much did that stupid goof cost us in $$ and lives.
Wade you are typical of those anti USA Goofs.
Knock...knock...there are no ballot box solutions to America's economic woes. All rich nations (Europe and Japan) are suffering high unemployment and stagnant GDP growths. At present it would take a near tripling of GDP to return the country to pre-September 2008 employment levels. Short of a Great Depression era government funded jobs program; unemployment will remain high for at least the next 6 years. So, put away the socialist signs and prepare for round two – Deflation. You’re not finished paying for Uncle Ronnie’s “supply side solutions.”
The demos are trying with their friends the left wing media to tell everyone things are getting better for them. It is a crock but hey they have to try something even if it is fake polls and lies. The house is going to the GOP in a very very big way between 60 and 90 seats. The senate will be a toss up but at least the GOP will have enough control to stop Obama's destruction of America. That's all we Americans really want for now.
Wade Wow! Your going to be very disappointed come Nov if those are the numbers your expecting. Yes you can forget about the Senate!! And your desire for the Congress is understandable, but becoming more questionable everyday that it will be a reality. The tea baggers are killing your chances.
I would wish you luck, but I would be lying!
Hmmm .... who wrote this story?? NBC news .. the usualy liberal media BS. Give them hope NBC before the Dems get devastated in Nov!! And then, get all hopped up on Welfare and Unemployment before a Republican Pres takes the White House. Since none of you actually work or go to school, I guess you need something to do!! That's OK ... you can stop the charading and go back to watching Jerry Springer. See you at the polls .. I'm sure the buses will be running that day!
Haha! Isn't the typical "Broke, jobless, white trash" stereotype usually reserved for the right, though? I can proudly say that I'm neither, since both are chop full of bull----. Just tell me where to go to vote YES on legalizing MaryJane
It is easy to understand the frustration and dissatisfaction with our politicians. I have never missed voting in an election since my first for JFK. However, in 72 I voted for Nixon believing he would end the vietnam war. HE Lied! Then not learning I voted for Reagan in 80 due to two issues the 21% interest rate and Carter refused to allow the Isreali soldiers to assist in freeing our hostages! I WAS WRONG! Reagan raised taxes and was just as cooked! I won't ever make that mistake again! This is why we have such a great system in Iowa having a caucus. Now, I really get involved, I learn, watch MSNBC, and CNN and PBS. Read and learn all I can. It's my country, my democracy, my beloved freedom is too important to turn it over to morons with half-assed ideas that will take away what so many brave men and women died for! A great education is an absolute necessity in our evolution as productive citizens and as valuable human beings.
Exactly. You're an informed voter. The sad issue concerns that broad swath of the electorate who don't realize that the Tea Party et al will prove a disaster if they get near everything from Social Security to Medicare. They'll feed corporate welfare to Wall Street and, of course, the military-industrial complex.
The level of ignorance of supporters of the Republicans and their Tea Party core is stunning. And I'm no great fan of Obama's; Obama has never gone to the mat with these dangerous people, and now he's in grave danger of not merely losing reelection but seeing the split between rich and poor become even wider and the violence deeper in a disintegrating American economy under the "leadership" of the intellectual munchkins (TeaB's).
Wade .. what about the solution for the deficit. Obama has now past the point where the country can recover from his frivolous spending. There is no way that we as a country can pay back that money. So ... our kids and grandkids will live in a country that is basically broke. And when it all comes crashing down .... and the dollar is de-valued beyond repair, the only solution will to bankrupt the country. WOW .. think that will run a ripple effect across the world economies. But, China that holds all the notes, will come out on top your kids better learn to speak Chinese!!
I would expect Democrats and their operatives to pull out all the stops, especially on Nov. 2nd...when they pull the knives out of all the tires they've slashed in order to attempt to prevent their GOP enemies the ability to vote. Chicago's going nationwide!!
I'm a Republican, but I really hope Alvin Green wins in SC. The Dems deserve him, and he would make a great addition to King Barack's cabinet!
Hard to believe that Palin has made it as far as she has! If you want a funny commentary on her, check out John Cleese talking about Palin from the Brit perspective on youtube... Too Funny!
I don't know about other people, but I'm still kicking out the Bush people from the JW era. That's where the mess started and what Obama's had to deal with for the last 2 years. The No or Know nothing Republicans can hit the road and try and get a job in the real world with the rest of us.
Very interesting slant from a very liberal slanter. Just another attempt to sway the electorate towards a more liberal vote. The politics went from dirty to filthy when Nixon ran and won the presidency. Every candidate and office holder has bathed in the scum-water ever since. Albeit, some more reluctantly than others.
I've personally given $50 to support Feingold, the most courageous politician I've seen in four decades of watching politics. I wish him well.
Of course, the anger is strong against incumbents in general, but it's apparent that a slightly higher percentage of registered Democrats will show up at the polls than was previously predicted. They may lost the House, but it's highly unlikely they'll lose the Senate.
I guess everything's a Bush left us a @!$%#ing mess when you try to pass off liberalism as 'the way, the truth, and the life' that all possible logical worlds must submit to or be punished.
It's either Obama or America. You cannot have both.
There is something happening! Maybe it the people getting wind of the prejudice and bigotry in the Republican/TEA parties.
TO Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell and John Boehner of the House:
I'M calling for John and Mitch to disavow the prejudicial and bigoted in the following:
==> Tancredo in Colorado. Tancredo had a "MACACA Moment" specifically calling President Obama, "Barack Hussein Obama", to specifically identify the President as "Hussein" to further amplify "Islamic roots" as a rallying cry to the masses!.
==> Rand Paul, who referred to Jim Crow Era tactics and side tracked bigotry by saying private ownership "should be allowed to determine who could be served in restaurants or food counters."
==> Palladino in New York, who used an "African Tribal Dance" and called it "President Obama's Inaugural Dance", and used computer generated photos of President and Michelle Obama dressed as pimp and prostitute in one of his mailings.
==>The Oregon State candidate who continues to home school with an old text book calling "Negroes" as "Childlike and unintelligent"!
==> Sharron Angle's comment of "you look asian" truly sickens me since I am "Tejano".
==>Virginia Republican Party Chairman of a comment that "His dog should be eligible for Welfare" since "He black, unemployed, lazy, can't speak English and probably has no clue who his daddy is"!
When Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell and House Republican leader John Boehner repudiate and disavows these radical right-winged bigots; then, and only then will they be qualified enough to hold the positions they crave.
Till then :
Vote
Out
The
(E)Incumbent bigoted Republican party !!!
There's nothing wrong with those comments.
Robert ... can't believe that you are still using the Bush thing. That shows how stupid the Dems are. That's all you have?? By the way, all I have to say is "thank you" Obama. After the Bush situation, I thought it would take the GOP a decade to get back in office ... but Obama being such a moron with such ridiculous ideas, he has gotten the GOP back in office in 2 years. Wow .. it took a real knucklehead to do that!! Thanks Horsemouth!!
The commenters here remind me of that New York dilettante Pauline Kael who couldn't believe the outcome of the 1972 presidential election because no one she knew voted for Nixon.
Just like then, another landslide is coming. The Democrats will be eviscerated. Let us hope the Republicans will have been sobered by their banishment to the wilderness.
Those voting Democratic are: Drunk, crack addicts, welfare recipients, illegal aliens or complete idiots.
correction...They are: "Drunk....complete idiots," "crack addict...complete idiots," "welfare recipient....complete idiots," and "illegal alien complete idiots."
Are the races tightening? Yes. Will it change the outcome? No. McCain "tightened" the race with Obama and lost. Just about everyone has made up their mind on this midterm election. These races will be determined by the local turnout. The winds of change are blowing and it's going to be a Cat 5 storm that hits the incumbents, mostly Democrats.
But the media is out there, Chuckie Todd especially, attempting to spin favorable results for the progressive (non-pregressive) candidates in their attempt to sway voters rather than just do their journalistic job.
I personally think that there will be some surprises for the GOP especially in GOP states. But then again sometimes people like to play the bluff. It will be fun to watch it all and see how people actually respond... like it really actually matters. One thing i know of the US: they don't have pation or care like other countries do, such as france at this moment in time and they if any are the ones who could be won without firing a shot. And they are at war. :) that makes me smile and laugh a little. wait! I gotta remember all those faces and voices who are on the so called front lines to counter talk like this. Can not forget them. I've got tto say though. No one cares what you think. You be the nazi all you want but it really doesnt matter. A nazi is a nazi just as you are you.
I think all the Nazis can be found at PBS
Rudy, Rudy, Rudy ... there a lot of jobs in Cancun or Cabo!! Since the GOP is going to clean up in the Nov elections and you obviously will lose your welfare, then I suggest you go back to Mexico and do your thing there... OK.
Adios amigo!!
The question of the article is right up there with, "is there a Santa Claus!"