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Subscribe to RSSIt’s been a recurrent theme throughout the last days of this midterm election cycle: “New poll shows [Insert Senate race that didn’t seem competitive three weeks ago] is tightening.”
According to some polls, candidates in a handful of states have made apparent gains after months of trailing. In Pennsylvania, two new surveys show Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak – who has struggled to stay within striking distance of Republican Pat Toomey since the state’s May primary – now polling within the margin of error. A St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio poll released Tuesday put Democrat Russ Feingold just two points behind GOP nominee Ron Johnson. In the pricey (and contentious) California Senate contest, a new PPIC poll shows GOP candidate Carly Fiorina catching up with incumbent Barbara Boxer. Gaps have also seemingly closed in Colorado and Alaska.
But what does “tightening” really mean, other than more fodder for analysts dissecting the state of the races?
Experts and pollsters contend it’s a normal part of the campaign life cycle.
“There’s just a natural tightening of races,” says Nathan Gonzales, who analyzes races for the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.
In the final weeks before a competitive statewide election, when activists are working to fire up their base and television audiences face a closing barrage of paid political advertising, voters begin to pay attention.
In this cycle, that especially means Democratic voters.
“The tightening is just mostly about more Democrats showing support for Democratic candidates,” added Gonzales. “There are folks who are calling this ‘a Democratic surge’ – I’m just not ready to call it that."
In some cases, Republicans might have already been mobilized because their side of the political spectrum was simply more interesting early on in their state's campaign contests.
In the Wisconsin Senate race, for instance, Democrat Feingold did not face a contested primary, while Republican candidates in other state races were forced to duke it out for their nominations.
“Democrats and Democratic-leaners just weren’t really all that involved in what was going on politically,” said Dr. Wendy Scattergood of St. Norbert College. “Their side wasn’t where the drama was.”
But now, Scattergood says, those Democrats may be tuning in and rallying behind their nominee.
Television ads could also be playing a role in mobilizing Democratic-leaners – and perhaps changing some minds within the dwindling but crucial bloc of undecided or soft “lean” voters.
Dr. G. Terry Madonna, polling director at Franklin & Marshall College, noted that a series of recent Pennsylvania polls appear to show a slight improvement for Sestak in the Philadelphia suburbs, where Democrats must perform well to retain retiring Sen. Arlen Specter’s seat. That bump, he said, may have been aided by advertisements criticizing Toomey’s vote to normalize trade relations with China. Democrats say the policy has led to job losses in the state.
Madonna says that there does appear to be some tightening in the race but that more independent polling is necessary to prove that the contest is really neck-and-neck. Two polls in the last two days have shown the contest within the margin of error, but various other automated or partisan polls have shown Toomey retaining a high single-digit lead.
While new poll releases are the bread-and-butter of political reporting and analysis, there is some truth to the hackneyed stump line that "the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day." There is often wide variety in how pollsters identify and classify the voters most likely to cast a ballot.
“Ultimately, polling isn’t about how people are going to vote. It’s about who is going to actually show up at the polls,” said Gonzales.
That, he added, is very difficult to predict.
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I am from Illinois and as usual we don't have a real good choice in the election all the candidates are flawed, in some cases deeply flawed. I would bet when push comes to shove the democrats will win the day as they usually do, the fix is in as usual. How anyone can cheer for either party in this state is beyond me, corruption is the only bipartisan policy in this state. What is going to happen her is predictable and nothing to cheer about.
Carlos Toadvine
I would bet when push comes to shove the democrats will win the day as they usually do, the fix is in as usual. How anyone can cheer for either party in this state is beyond me, corruption is the only bipartisan policy in this state. What is going to happen her is predictable and nothing to cheer about.
Don't forget Illinois is not the most corrupt state in the union.
Beverly, with all due respect... I am sorry I can't say what I am thinking and use respect, so i will just ask what planet you are from?
"I am sorry I can't say what I am thinking and use respect, so i will just ask what planet you are from?"
Planet New Jersey....the most corrupt political place in the universe. She was correct though.
Glad I live in NY....Andrew Cuomo practically assured winning Governor, Schumer and Gilibrand also almost assured winning their Senate seats, many of our congressional delegation [virtually all Dem.] will surely be returning. At this point, I don't care if Republicans take over both houses of Congress. With leadership comes responsibility, and with being in the majority, they will be held to task if the economy doesn't improve, budget deficit isn't slashed, and the national debt on its way to being paid off.
.....yeah, Andy and his band of corrupt crooks and liars will once again screw the working people of New York and steal every penny they can from them......good job Pat........you dope.........
Perhaps with all this talk that the election is in the bag for Republican candidates, republicans will become somewhat complacent and stay home, thinking, gee, its a sure thing, so I think I'll just go out to the movies instead of voting. We can all only wish this will happen.
I like what you said Jody of Iowa, you said a mouth full. Like you said if, I mean if, the repubs win the house, they have to do something. But, The Dems are going to make it happen on Nov. 2.
Anti-American teabaggers are extremists and are following in the footsteps of their God, Adolph Hitler. He went after gays and black first, too. Once they get a foothold, Jews are the next target. They are already saying that Jews control the money and Hollywood and you know that they want to take those back as well. Conservitive polititions have balls but are wrong on every issue. Progressive polititions are right on the issues but lack the balls.
Democratic voters are smart. Republicon voters making over 1/4 million a year are smart but evil. The rest of republicon voters are unbelievably ignorant and are voting against themselves (to which the rich cons say 'thanks, now get back to work a-holes') and the independant (of critical thinking capability) are gullible to the extreme. God told me that republicon voters will burn in hell. God told me so I can at least take comfort in knowing all you greedy, selfish, bigoted bastards are going to get your just desserts in the afterlife.
GrantHughes, after your rant you call other's evil, guilible..God told you that republicans voter will burn in hell, I didn't know that God made that decision on political affiliation. She greedy, selfish bigoted bastards are going to get just desserts in the afterlife...Sounds from your bigoted rant that we'll be seeing you there.
sarcasm escapes you. thanks for helping to prove my point. ;)
your's sure did.
"Democratic voters are smart."
You considering those who will continue to vote in scum bags like Charlie Rangel and Sheila Jackson Lee smart? Half of the Democrat base are poor people who have been suckered for the last 30+ years to vote for those who promised to help them but have failed to deliver.....not are not very smart...at all.
I must say that lately I have noticed that the Republican big mouthed pundits are easing their retoric as if they are not really as confident as they were a couple of months ago. This idea that the Democrats will suffer huge losses is wishful thinking on the part of the Tea Party movement. They are hoping that demonizing President Obama will humiliate the Democrats to the point that they will be too embarassed and frustrated to come out and vote. I would not count on anything if I were them.
"They are hoping that demonizing President Obama will humiliate the Democrats to the point that they will be too embarassed and frustrated to come out and vote."
Can you name some Dems who are running on their voting record?....i.e. touting Obama care and/or the stimulus spending bills?
Dont let the republicans, you know the party of No. and the democrats the party of transparency, think that they have the votes...You don't the vast majority are non party, yes the independents and were not as dump as you think...were the hidden spoke that will make or break a party, and as an independent i think saying no and spending most of your time getting a tan, and playing golf is not the right vote....Better democrats even though there not any better, but still have some hope is the way im going.......so along till next time
"just natural" , whew!
i was worried your constant fellating of the teabaggers might have been all for naught!
I think there is a quiet trend towards the Democrats! People havent forgotten what the GOP did before Pres. Obama's election, what they've done after he weas elected and what they've been doing during this campaign! I've said for almost a year that I have a hard time imagining that voters would put the fox back in charge of the chicken coop after he's eaten so MANY CHICKENS!! It would make absolutely NO sense given recent history!
you are assuming way to much intelligence on the part of the voter. You sound like one of those dems who, as Anthony Weiner says, "bring library books to a knife fight".
In my opinion the polls are a joke and are used to manipulate elections. I know I am being cynical here but lets just say you are loosing according to any polling you can do as a candidate. So IF you have a mechanism to manipulate voting results all you have to do is start spamming a whole bunch of 'making up ground fast' and 'catching you up' newscasts. That way when you throw the election, you have been spamming for weeks that you were catching up making your 'victory' believable. Nobody is going to believe a winner was down 10 to 20% during polling and somehow staged a 'miracle' win. There would be all kinda investigations under those circumstances. BUT if you are loosing and spam 'you are catching up quickly' press releases it seems more believable when you throw the election like George Bush did ...... :)
The more some candidates speak the worse their polls become. Reminds me of a phrase a buddy used to use "good from afar, but far from good".
In recent history, polling has not been an accurate predictor. One new variable is how Independents are being viewed and interpreted.
Independents used to be moderates, with most leaning to the left. However, at the end of the Bush/Cheney administration, many Republicans registered as Independents in anger. So now we have a large number of Independents leaning to the right.
This trend is the explanation for the Tea Party as well. At first it appeared that the Tea Party might not represent either party, or perhaps it represented moderates, especially those who are fiscal conservatives. But soon it became apparent that the Tea Party was just Republicans to the far right, and when the fundamentalists joined in with the old wedge issues of God and gays, we realized it is a complete farce and a backward one at that.
If the Tea Party really wanted to change Washington, their agenda would be:
* Equal public funding of campaigns
* Fair taxation that would preserve the middle class and working poor (instead of making the rich richer and the poor poorer per Bush's tax cuts)
* Ending corporate welfare for businesses, especially those that ship jobs overseas (this in conjunction with Wall Street reform and consumer protections already passed by Dems)
* Non-profit health care (and regulation of the health insurance industry to ensure that care is provided in exchange for premiums paid as already passed by the Dems)
* Ending congressional raiding of Social Security, and turning it into a professionally managed pension plan with safe and guaranteed investments--Also requiring that government employees (including congress) have the same benefits and retirement plans as the rest of the nation
The list is much longer, but these issues are something the majority of Americans could get behind. And if need be, a new centrist party could run candidates as Independents, unlike the fake Tea Party that is running as Republicans. Then maybe we could hope for real change.
I thought Polls were for dancing....my bad
I already voted a straight Democratic Ticket ! Anyone who is making under
$ 300,000 /year has no business voting Republican in the first place. In America - the poor and middle class vote against their own economic interests to preserve this "myth" of the American Dream. ( CLUE: There's a REASON it's called a Dream folks - because that's ALL it is - it's NOT reality!) For most people, no matter how hard you work - you don't stand a snowball's chance in hell of becoming rich ! Pull your head out of the sand. Quit dreaming, wake up and smell the coffee.
Texas Liberal, some dreams come true, mine did.
"For most people, no matter how hard you work - you don't stand a snowball's chance in hell of becoming rich !"
I sure hope you don't decide to do any speaking to highschool or college students.
A texas liberal, now there's an oxymoron, sans oxy.
I think people are seeing the idiocy of tea baggers and their candidates. Yes they're mad but voting mad does nothing to help the situation. If they had a comprehensive plan then they might be worth considering. In the mean time the 'baggers will continue to be manipulated by big business and opportunists like sock puppets.
Regarding the problem of campaign funds and special interests, in addition to equal public funding (and public service air time), to be eligible for these funds, candidates must make themselves accessible to the free press, and must participate in the public service air time.
That means a candidate can't just appear on FOX that only their base tunes into to raise money, and it would put a natural end to the activist ruling by the Supreme Court that now allows unlimited influence in our elections by corporations.
How to have a free press is another matter…
The repugs gained a lead too early. This is just an inevitable result of a natural polling pattern; Gain early, finish behind.
It occurred to me that the MSM has given the GOP a free pass on their slogans, such as "wasteful stimulus package." Wasteful how? Wasteful the IT alone didn't end the Recession? No one is asked to point to even one dollar that was thrown down a hole. Instead there is this paradoxical complaint that there were no shovel ready projects. That would mean that the money was never spent, not wasted. The GOP is never asked to point to any project or any job that was not needed. Officials like Gov. Perry refused the money, but then accepted it. This money was going to states and munis, so it must have been the states that wasted it. Same with the extending the tax cut on the upper 2%. No businessman is questioned or has claimed that he/she will expand and hire if only his taxes are increased. Not even Mr. Johnson in Wisc. This is a pathetic job by the MSM - and we are going to pay the price for it.
To all the whiny teabag complainers on the MSNBC forums,
Yes we can, yes we did, and YES WE WILL.
The Democratic loss will be just so much propaganda if you just vote!
The problem is that once people found out Tea Party candidates, for the most part, are outside the mainstream...we have no good choices. The Republicans have gone to the far right and are too extreme also...we need strong Independent moderate candidates who are competent!
Barney Frank - mainstream, Al Frankin Mainstream, Harry reid - mainstream, Charley wrangle- mainstream....too many to list...
Bhaa Haa haaa, you Dems are deluding yourselves. The discontent with your president and his ilk will be dished out come Nov.
Get ready for some REAL change you can believe in.
Are Dems really surging as some polls say?
In a word; no.
I have been wondering if the all the dead people will show up strong for the democrats this year. The republicans can never seem to sway that ever growing segment of voters. Must the number of active brain cells that keeps them voting for the same party year after year, just like some of the living....
LOL!!!