E-mail updates
Follow on Twitter
Subscribe to RSSIt’s been a recurrent theme throughout the last days of this midterm election cycle: “New poll shows [Insert Senate race that didn’t seem competitive three weeks ago] is tightening.”
According to some polls, candidates in a handful of states have made apparent gains after months of trailing. In Pennsylvania, two new surveys show Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak – who has struggled to stay within striking distance of Republican Pat Toomey since the state’s May primary – now polling within the margin of error. A St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio poll released Tuesday put Democrat Russ Feingold just two points behind GOP nominee Ron Johnson. In the pricey (and contentious) California Senate contest, a new PPIC poll shows GOP candidate Carly Fiorina catching up with incumbent Barbara Boxer. Gaps have also seemingly closed in Colorado and Alaska.
But what does “tightening” really mean, other than more fodder for analysts dissecting the state of the races?
Experts and pollsters contend it’s a normal part of the campaign life cycle.
“There’s just a natural tightening of races,” says Nathan Gonzales, who analyzes races for the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.
In the final weeks before a competitive statewide election, when activists are working to fire up their base and television audiences face a closing barrage of paid political advertising, voters begin to pay attention.
In this cycle, that especially means Democratic voters.
“The tightening is just mostly about more Democrats showing support for Democratic candidates,” added Gonzales. “There are folks who are calling this ‘a Democratic surge’ – I’m just not ready to call it that."
In some cases, Republicans might have already been mobilized because their side of the political spectrum was simply more interesting early on in their state's campaign contests.
In the Wisconsin Senate race, for instance, Democrat Feingold did not face a contested primary, while Republican candidates in other state races were forced to duke it out for their nominations.
“Democrats and Democratic-leaners just weren’t really all that involved in what was going on politically,” said Dr. Wendy Scattergood of St. Norbert College. “Their side wasn’t where the drama was.”
But now, Scattergood says, those Democrats may be tuning in and rallying behind their nominee.
Television ads could also be playing a role in mobilizing Democratic-leaners – and perhaps changing some minds within the dwindling but crucial bloc of undecided or soft “lean” voters.
Dr. G. Terry Madonna, polling director at Franklin & Marshall College, noted that a series of recent Pennsylvania polls appear to show a slight improvement for Sestak in the Philadelphia suburbs, where Democrats must perform well to retain retiring Sen. Arlen Specter’s seat. That bump, he said, may have been aided by advertisements criticizing Toomey’s vote to normalize trade relations with China. Democrats say the policy has led to job losses in the state.
Madonna says that there does appear to be some tightening in the race but that more independent polling is necessary to prove that the contest is really neck-and-neck. Two polls in the last two days have shown the contest within the margin of error, but various other automated or partisan polls have shown Toomey retaining a high single-digit lead.
While new poll releases are the bread-and-butter of political reporting and analysis, there is some truth to the hackneyed stump line that "the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day." There is often wide variety in how pollsters identify and classify the voters most likely to cast a ballot.
“Ultimately, polling isn’t about how people are going to vote. It’s about who is going to actually show up at the polls,” said Gonzales.
That, he added, is very difficult to predict.
Leave a Comment:
A lot of people flocked to Obama and brought in Democrats on his coat tails driven by sky-high expectations for change. Inevitably they were disappointed because in working for change he had to deal with the gritty nuts-and-bolts of politics and make compromises to get things done. Now a lot of people are flocking to the extreme right with hopes for change and once their people get elected they will find out the same thing. Legislation is an ugly process but it keeps extremism from taking root. Who among the army of no-taxes, less-government, anti-social-program extreme right candidates that are riding the Tea Party wave right now will have the same smarts and maturity to work for broad consensus around real solutions?
You see, the teabaggers have really big mouths and make alot of noise. This is a common practice for desperate people who know they're on the verge of losing something big. The Dems on the other hand, generally stay low profile, they surely are not guilty of spewing the poison, ignorant,uninformed rhetoric that comes out of the teabaggers mouths. We are working so hard quietly, there will be big upsets for the extremist teabaggers, I have no doubt about it.
Kind of like presidents who accuse people of doing wrong without a shred of evidence.
Hey Ellie Mae, you need to take your hillbilly mentality back to the woods and stay there....
Oh yes, the race is tightening alright. People are coming to their senses and tiring of the destructive lies and tirades of those teabagger malcontents. I'm hearing more and more of it everyday, people are turned off by their scaremongering, racism and downright stupidity. Has anyone noticed that most of the teabaggers cannot even spell much less structure a sentence properly. What does that tell you?
Rose: I'd be careful about your assertions. Recently a Rolling Stone reporter spent a year following the Tea Party. He said that the majority of them, according to the data he collected and anecdotal evidence, are better educated, more wealthy, and older than the average American, as well as being overwhelmingly white. These websites just attract more than the average number of idle spitballers hiding behind their computers. Who has much time to do this, anyway?
There should be no doubt by anyone that currently there are deceptive concerted efforts to manipulate people’s thinking and to sway the pubic’s voting. We saw it at work in 2000 and in 2004 with the aggressive attacks on McCain, Gore and Kerry and with the creative cultivation of the Christian block, all of which had a significant impact on those elections. Now, with the recent ruling by the supreme court allowing unlimited funds to be channelled through shadow organizations and into politics the flood gates have been literally opened ... with the result being that there are now substantial focused efforts to saturate and control the public’s minds, paid for by these unlimited funds. Karl Rove, the ‘fat cats’ and ‘big money’ have been identified as pouring in extremely large amounts, with estimates of individual donations over $1m and totals exceeding $250M, to support Republican and Tea Party candidates. Their intent to use their wealth, positions and power to effect outcomes and to control results in order to insure they again get what they want, is obvious and totally scary.
We saw the results and suffered the consequences in 2000 and 2004, this time around would be even worse. Whether poor, middle-class or upper middle-class they offer only subterfuge and aggressive, deceptive manipulation with the intent to gain results that greatly benefit only them. When remembering the Bush-Cheney years and recognizing the current Republican focus it should be easy to identify the ‘puppet’ performances that those ‘pulling the strings’ demand and the costs and apathy that fall to the majority. Their manipulative, self-serving efforts alone should be insulting enough but what should really anger everyone is to understand that what they want is to return to ‘more of the same’ that cost us so much and then, if they get away with it, they will be emboldened and be even more aggressive. The costs of allowing them to have what they want is far greater than having to accept and pressure the Democrats to do better; we have actually seen that when with the economy being better under the Democrats and with everyone, including all of the middle-class, losing as only the few continually gain under the Republicans. What is needed now is for the voters to ignore all that is said, rejecting all efforts to deceive and manipulate, and to vote rationally and objectively denying them control. Special Interests and the very wealthy few are trying to buy a government again for their own purposes. When we see the saturation of advertisements favoring their ‘puppets’ we need to become very cynical. We need to literally close our ears to the resounding noise aimed to confuse, deceive, control and manipulate and just have them waste their money on deaf ears.
What a bleeding heart liberal! My gawd, stop watching Olberman and Matthews.
what's the solution?