Obama's campaign swing, by the numbers

As some of us wrote yesterday, President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party could risk major losses in the “Big 10” swathe of Midwestern states on Election Day. The president’s campaign swing this week will take him to two of those states – Wisconsin and Iowa. He’ll also visit Albuquerque, N.M., and Richmond, Va.

Each of the four states he’ll hit this week was a feather in the president’s electoral cap in 2008. Three of them - New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Iowa – were decided by a less than a percentage point in both the 2000 and 2004 elections. Obama turned each one blue, with victories of 15, 14, and 9 points, respectively, over GOP nominee John McCain.

Obama also snagged Virginia’s 13 electoral votes with a six point victory in 2008, the first time a Democrat had won the state in a presidential election since Lyndon Johnson carried it in 1964.

But, for many Democrats, that November sure feels like a long time ago.

The Des Moines Register released new poll numbers Tuesday in advance of Obama's visit, showing that 55 percent of Iowans are dissatisfied with Obama, up from 50 percent in February. The president's approval rating in New Mexico dipped to 45 percent in August, an eight point drop from the previous year, according to an Albuquerque Journal poll.

Democratic candidates in the states where Air Force One will touch down this week are hoping that voters who supported the president nearly two years ago will be energized when he appears there five weeks before the midterm elections. But the 2010 numbers don’t look encouraging for the president’s party.

Iowa’s Democratic Senate candidate and incumbent governor both face deep deficits in support, per the Register survey. In Wisconsin, incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold and gubernatorial hopeful Tom Barrett both trailed GOP opponents among likely voters in a recent TIME/CNN poll. And Diane Denish, New Mexico’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate, has also trailed in a series of recent polls.

Discuss this post

Are we surprised? Obama doesn't control the airwaves, Fox does. When Biden speaks, he is ridiculed for some gaff. When Sean Hannity attacks the Yale Divinity School, its curriculum and faculty - it is not even a news story.

  • 3 votes
Reply#1 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:00 PM EDT

Listen WM it's not Obama or the Media, it is the people now in command, we are the people speaking out loud that leave our saving alone, stop hiring more lazy, no good people to sit around the white house doing nothing and using our tax money to pay those no good politician, encluding the President. I we the people should think twice before voting on November, all those promises and change went to the wrong way, the President need to stop borrowing money from another Country and no more stimulus, lending people who doesn't even works and let us pick our own Doctors, if he want to distributes money to those illegal imigration and criminal let him use his own money not the tax payer

  • 1 vote
#1.1 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:38 PM EDT

Wm, what Sean Hannity says in not news, its opinion. What Biden says is news, he is the VP of the US. I watch FOX, I watch MSNBC, some, CNN, some, but FOX news programs are the most balance news reporting out there at this point. And I mean NEWS programs, not Hannity or Beck, the NEWS. Maybe if the liberals weren't so obsessed with trying to destroy people that disagree with them and actually listen to the public for a change, there numbers would be better.

    #1.2 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:32 PM EDT

    FOX doesn't control the airwaves. 60% of Americans get their news online. You'll find FOX number 7 on online news.

      #1.3 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:38 PM EDT

      From the Political, George Washington University poll of likely voters:

      "81% of likely voters now get their information about politics from cable news, while 71% say they get it from network news. On the cable news front, 42% say Fox is their main source of information about politics; 30% say CNN; just 12% cite MSNBC"

      This tells you where folks that want to be informed without having to listen to opinion get there information. A clear majority say FOX. 81% from cable news, not the internet.

        #1.4 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:59 PM EDT
        Reply

        Is this trip a good thing for the democrates ? he will sink some of those may stand a chance. He will be better off stay home to work on the problems of this country. Tax payers save the money from paying for this trip and he can devote more time to address what we elected hime to do. win - win.

        • 2 votes
        Reply#2 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:11 PM EDT

        don hate you are just scared he will get the dem base up once again, and you know he got me up and I am going to vote to keep you american haters out.

        • 2 votes
        #2.1 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:05 PM EDT

        I agree with you Johnny, he should take care of the problem, our economy it's getting worsen, instead of running around sending more lies to people and spending our tax money.

        • 1 vote
        #2.2 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:07 PM EDT

        The America hater is in the White House

          #2.3 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:09 PM EDT

          no the anercian hater is in the reb and tea parties. you dont hear him saying anything close to what you hear coming from them. so mister american (other then white) hater if the hat fit

            #2.4 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:15 PM EDT
            Reply

            September 28, 2010, 11:22 am

            Plan B: Connecticut and W. Virginia Create New Outline for G.O.P. Senate Takeover
            By NATE SILVER

            '...But Democrats have a nightmare of their own: What if the Republicans expand the Senate playing field by putting two new states, Connecticut and West Virginia, into play? Were they to win those states, Republicans could lose California, Delaware and Washington and still take claim of the Senate. And new polling suggests they could do just that..."

            http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/28/plan-b-connecticut-and-w-virginia-create-new-outline-for-g-o-p-senate-takeover/?ref=politics

            It just seems to keep getting worse...Manchin is running away from the administration as quickly as he's dropping in the polls...

            Manchin Calls for Partial Repeal of Health Reform

            ROANOKE, W.V. -- In Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin's quest to strike a bipartisan chord as he campaigns to fill the late Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd's seat, he's joining the GOP's call to repeal pieces of health care reform.

            Manchin endorsed President Obama's efforts on landmark health care reform and voiced support for the bill before and after its passage in March. Now, just five weeks away from a tougher Senate race than he expected against Republican John Raese, the governor said in an interview with RealClearPolitics that he supports many basic components of the law but volunteered that some of it needs to be repealed.

            http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/09
            /27/manchin_calls_for_partial_repeal_of_health_care_reform_107316.html

            Patty Murray is apparently in trouble now too...gone from dem to leans dem to toss-up

            http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wa/washington_senate_rossi_vs_murray-1183.html

            This is stunning and sad, and seemingly worse with every passing day...

            • 4 votes
            Reply#3 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:17 PM EDT

            And the Democrats wonder why there is no enthusiasm. Because they do not have the courage of their convictions - why should anyone vote for them. This is called the lesser of two evils, hold your nose while you vote - for Democrats. If the Republicans were not so much for the richest of the rich, I'd give them a look, but they care nothing for the middle class and those who are hurting the most. They only want to make it worse so their rich friends can get richer. I agree with the philosophy of the Democratic party which is why I vote for them. But man they make it hard because they are such wussies.

            Democratic candidates are running from the President - well that's just great. He may compromise but by gosh he is willing to go into the lions' den and these folks just run scared every time the Republicans bash them. GROW A PAIR!!!! No wonder the Republicans win the spin war. Where is Alan Grayson! He at least will fight for what he believes in. United we stand, divided we fall.

            • 2 votes
            #3.1 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:02 PM EDT

            what are you talking about murray is up 9 and when dems wakeup she will be more. hater hater hater

              #3.2 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:26 PM EDT

              Joi, you are spewing the liberal spin. The so-called "tax breaks for the wealthy" actually encompassed all tax brackets. The only reason the democrats are now considering extending those tax cuts is A.) it is a huge election year B.) public outcry. Otherwise they would quietly be allowed to expire further taxing the already strained middle class.

              We have seen a great deal of political slight of hand and smoke and mirrors in the last few years. The Republicans have been labeled the party of no, but what liberals will not divulge (that is a matter of public record) is all the pork and earmarked money that is weighing down what could possibly be good legislation. So much so that it makes more sense to vote "no". Both sides need to stop this time honored tradition. If an amendment is good enough to stand on it's own so be it. Dont bury it in another bill that has nothing to do with the original subject.

                #3.3 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:58 PM EDT

                Manchin is still ahead of Raese.

                The only reason for Manchin to drop in the polls.....Manchin set up to have West Virginia and Marshall to play football against each other for the next three years. The paper company that Raese owns in Morgantown said when Manchin agreed for them to play he went down in the polls 5 points.

                Seems like to me that even football games are affected by politics.

                Now that's pretty sad!!!!

                  #3.4 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:31 PM EDT
                  Reply

                  So everybody wants to go back to Egypt?

                  Brilliant. Lazy and gullible to be more accurate.

                    Reply#4 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:31 PM EDT

                    Hey there Clarke!!

                    Thats a great idea, excellent destination for liberals...Egypt, LOL

                    Have a great day dude :-)

                    • 1 vote
                    #4.1 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:08 PM EDT

                    liberal schmiberal dude. Why do you feel the need to categorize human beings? :)

                      #4.2 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:14 PM EDT

                      "schmiberal" ??? is that in the dictionary or did you make that up? At least I'm not a racist. Yes, I'm afraid I do these days thanks to "fearful leader", think that people are either liberal or conservative for the most part. Darn it Clarke, I sort of like you...I didn't hurt your feelings did I?

                        #4.3 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:24 PM EDT

                        Not at all. But you define the whole person from that one part, and throw out the baby with the bathwater. It just seems silly. And there are so many shades of gray within those ranks as well.

                          #4.4 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:53 PM EDT

                          I know that, I do some days try to make this a bit humorous as well...I totally used to be a middle-conservative, but since all this lunacy I run farther to the right. So much for him being, "the great uniter", what a crock. This country has never been so devided since the civil war, and race has crap to do with it. You know though... I have heard the Egypt is quite lovely this time of year

                            #4.5 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:54 PM EDT

                            It's always lovely to an Egyptian. Obama is a lightening rod, nothing more or less. Division was always here, just hidden. Who labeled him the great uniter? Not him. Of course race has SOMETHING to do with it, but to what extent only the bigots really know.

                            You should run right on fiscal matters, and left on social/ecologic matters. Thats the way I see it. Those ideologies are no more than 2 fixed points on an organic line. It's like trying to fix your computer but the only tools you will use is a hammer or a screwdriver.

                              #4.6 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:27 PM EDT

                              perhaps in the center socially, but the ecology...I don't buy the whole global warming bit, cap and trade is BS, and Al Gore is full of it.

                              • 1 vote
                              #4.7 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 5:47 PM EDT

                              I mean, I could care less if women want to get abortions, just pay for it yourself, not with my tax dollar. I could care less if someone wants to be gay, just don't shove it in my face or in the face of impressionable children. Athiest and the ACLU can f-off about crosses and the word God on money and in the pledge, it was like that long before they decided they don't like it, so tough sh!t. And don't ask me to tolerate a religion and teachings that call for my death and the death of freedom. Thats where I am socially...hows that?

                              • 1 vote
                              #4.8 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 6:06 PM EDT

                              Well, thats fair enough. I would just say in response that there is more to ecology than global warming, and religion doesn't kill people any more than guns do. People kill people, and I have no problem dispatching anyone who wants to kill me.

                                #4.9 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 6:53 PM EDT
                                Reply

                                I had no idea,MSNBC was run by FOX News? Maybe they did not feel it news worthy? Or maybe they just left it out like they did with Chris Koons of Deleware claiming he is a Marxist while seeking a Senate seat?

                                • 2 votes
                                Reply#5 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:32 PM EDT

                                Not just a Marxist - a bearded Marxist!

                                  #5.1 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:57 PM EDT
                                  Reply

                                  Spend

                                  Spend!!

                                  SPEND!!!!!

                                  • 1 vote
                                  Reply#6 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:34 PM EDT

                                  Another article on Newsvine was detailing Obama (and Biden's) admonishment of the Democratic electorate for any loses the party may incur during the mid-terms.

                                  Excuse me, but did we not just get done bashing the Republicans for blaming the voters only a wee bit ago? Exactly how are Americans supposed to feel when the powers-that-be prefer to transfer their misery and failure onto them? How is this, in any way, shape or form, exemplary of good governance?

                                  • 1 vote
                                  Reply#7 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:35 PM EDT

                                  If I was a Democratic nominee I'd ask Obama to do me a favor and stay away.

                                  • 4 votes
                                  Reply#8 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:44 PM EDT

                                  I will vote for Dems all the way down the ticket. Not just out of anger over the RW extremists and their hate-filled, nonsensical rhetoric that is all hot air and no substance.

                                  I will vote for them because they are the last, best hope for our country.

                                  I will vote for them because I respect President Obama's decisions and victories even throughout a 2 year period of obfuscation and grandstanding on the Right.

                                  I will vote for them because they are putting our country (with no help from the babies and bullies on the right) on the correct path for recovery in all aspects of our government.

                                  I suggest that any and all concerned Centrists, Democrats, Progressives and just plain Reasonable people who don't want their country to fall into the hands of zealots do the same.

                                  • 3 votes
                                  Reply#9 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:58 PM EDT

                                  Hamlet Rules,

                                  You are correct and I agree with all you said, but they make it hard when they do not seem willing to fight for themselves, but rather are reactionary to the Republicans' talking points. This is what saddens me. But vote for them I will because I believe in their philosophy. And I too respect President Obama and Vice President Biden, as well as their victories given all the obstruction and downright lies they have had to contend with.

                                  As that old song goes, "Keep on trucking babe, you got to keep on trucking."

                                  • 3 votes
                                  #9.1 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:07 PM EDT

                                  Joi G: You really believe that the government knows better than you about how to live your life? You really believe that it is okay to take from those who earn to give to those who won't? You really believe that government is the solution to all your woes?

                                  As far as your statement of obstruction goes, I call BS. The democrats have control of the House, the Senate, and the White House. As far as lies go, the democrats, Obama included, have told some whoppers as well this year. Think about the statement that if HCR passes, people would be able to keep their insurance if they liked it. Think about, we have to pass this stimulus so that unemployment won't go above 8%. Think about the statement that abortion wouldn't be covered by tax dollars only to learn later, that in fact, it will be.

                                  • 1 vote
                                  #9.2 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:26 PM EDT

                                  Let's see.

                                  The republicans controlled both houses for 12 years 6 of which they also had the presidency and in all that time they didn't even take a look at health care. Let's work to improve what has already been passed. Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater and repeal the health legislation.

                                    #9.3 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:02 PM EDT
                                    Reply

                                    sad to see so much hate and animosity for a president who has passed reform that will make healthcare affordable for 30 million additional americans while reducing the deficit, passed major financial reform to try to prevent the unregulated frat-boy behavior of the financial industry which led to the financial meltdown, made student loans more affordable by removing the middle man sallie mae, is doing what he promised in ending combat operations in iraq, passed hate crime legislation, is trying to end the obstruction of civil liberty of gays to serve in the military, made major investment in our infrastructure and green energies, thus saving or creating hundreds of thousands and providing us with the investment needed for our future, saved the jobs of many teachers with the stimulus, and more...all in less than two years!!!!

                                    only in america, where we all want to whine and complain and want everything to benefit only us and right now.

                                    • 4 votes
                                    Reply#10 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:06 PM EDT

                                    pistlwarrior: You do mean health care for 30 million illegals, running up the deficit to the same numbers it took Bush to do in 8 years, regulating the financial sector that is getting ready to stick it to the American public, giving free education while those ahead of you paid for theirs, forcing life-styles on the majority, investing in green buddies and himself and paying off unions. Just thought I'd make sure what you were really saying.

                                    • 1 vote
                                    #10.1 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:29 PM EDT

                                    Perhaps you must the news-pisthwarrier-the Obamacare isn't reducing the deficit. You probably drank the Koolaid and thought it would.

                                      #10.2 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:13 PM EDT

                                      All I can say to the Democrats is "hang in there" :)

                                      As to the rest of you who talk fact-free smack to one degree or another, my grandma used to say: "There but for the grace of God go I". Yes, I do think we as citizens of the same country, which was founded to be a land of opportunity for everyone and which has the oldest written constitution in the world, should continue to extend the same goodwill that allowed us, our parents and our (great) grandparents to have a chance within a tolerant society. I'm proud to be an American. Those are my values.

                                      It's easy to be nice to only those who think, look, or believe like we do. The hard part is extending the same helping hand, tolerance and a lift-up to those who do not.

                                      Finally, all those who are currently ranting and raving their hate and selfishness, please remember that you are able to do so under the very laws of tolerance and freedom that my (in your eyes contemptable) liberal worldview provides.

                                      Hate is not a family value.

                                      • 1 vote
                                      #10.3 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:26 PM EDT
                                      Reply

                                      This section of MSNBC is 50% Bo Bo stories right now. I guess the made-up news was really told what to print today..................

                                        Reply#11 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:11 PM EDT

                                        Yep,

                                        There goes that "laser focus" on the economy again. "Oh, hell...I signed another BS piece of legislation this week, Now... back to galavanting around"

                                        • 1 vote
                                        Reply#12 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:25 PM EDT

                                        He passed sick insurance.  No one wants to realize that by the time your sick its too late.  Some of us choose to take our health seriously and be proactive.  The government wants us sick so they can control more of the fininancial pie.  By 2050 health care costs will exceed GDP at the current growth rate.  If you don't take care of your own health there will not be anyone around to save you in 10-20 years.

                                         

                                        • 1 vote
                                        Reply#13 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:40 PM EDT

                                        No kidding...

                                        These a$$holes in government and insurance realize that health is one's most valuable asset and people will pay anything to maintain it. They're taking advantage and the situation will ONLY get worse under these low-lifes... it doesn't need to be that way. Anyone who believes "obummer-care" is purely for the good of society needs to get their head examined...stop doing drugs...stop drinking the kool...toss out the rose colored glasses

                                        • 2 votes
                                        #13.1 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:18 PM EDT
                                        Reply

                                        Odumbo, Odumbo, Odumbo....

                                        Move over and let the TEA PARTY take over !!!

                                        Thank you for being you ....

                                        After all , were all just a bunch of dummies who don't understand what it is your trying too do with all your big Goverment spending...

                                        Good Night Democrates, your as good as done...

                                          Reply#14 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:51 PM EDT

                                          I dont care wether its a democrat or a republican or other, WHY does a sitting president get to use our tax monies to fly around campaigning for his personal party or agendas?? If he is stumping for the dems then the DNC should pay for the cost from their coffers, not my taxes, and the same is true for repubs.

                                          The president travels on my dime to promote the U.S. and its interests, not his personal friends/party or agenda. I am tired of politicians getting "carte blanche" with my money to jet set around on their business. If the business at hand is not for the U.S., then it comes out of their pocket not mine.

                                            Reply#15 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:31 PM EDT

                                            Azrancher - Because we let them...duh!

                                              #15.1 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:48 PM EDT
                                              Reply

                                              Thank God we have TWO Air Force One aircraft. I am pretty sure Obama wore at least one of them out so far in the past 20 months! If he keeps this up, he's going run out of shrimp cocktails for him and his massive entourages. Question, when Obama "is on the road" as he perpetually is, who is minding the store back in Washington for the American People?.....please don't tell me it's "This is a really big f____g deal"....Joe Biden!!!!........Is it November 2nd yet....for some reason I really feel compelled to vote and let our Congressman and government know what I think of there "performance" or lack thereof over the past 20 months!

                                                Reply#16 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:35 PM EDT

                                                alwaysfaithfull - So it was OK that the previous President spent less time in Washington than any President in history? Really?

                                                  #16.1 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:47 PM EDT
                                                  Reply

                                                  Va Ind - lib this, name calling is so 5th grade

                                                    Reply#17 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:45 PM EDT

                                                    Obama may be on the road, but Bush was on the farm (ranch). Get a clue, all of you who claim to have it, and don't want the government to tax it to give to the lazy for their handout - get off your high horse and go hire someone and pay them. Now there's a novel idea of how trickle down is supposed to work. And guess what? It's a tax deduction, too!

                                                      Reply#18 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:53 PM EDT

                                                      Obama did a number of good things in his first two years despite the Republican believing their minority was actually the majority opinion. More than half the country agreed with the health care bill or thought it didn't go far enough at the time it passed. Now most people do not want to repeal the health care bill but FOX news and the republicans would make you think that most people want it repealed. The republicans complain that the democrats aren’t listening to the people, but they want repeal DADT when the majority wants it repealed.

                                                        Reply#19 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:13 PM EDT

                                                        Here's a link to polling data:

                                                        http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html

                                                        I think that you will see that most people were against the bill - doesn't matter the reasons for being against - the bill passed over the will of the people.

                                                        • 1 vote
                                                        #19.1 - Tue Sep 28, 2010 8:38 PM EDT
                                                        Reply

                                                        MSNBC and CNN are propping up this president. News organizations should not be promoting one side or the other. Same with Fox on the right. When we can no longer trust media and Gov't we put our country in jeopardy. Please stop the spin

                                                          Reply#20 - Wed Sep 29, 2010 1:46 PM EDT
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