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In lieu of our normal weekly First Read Top 10, we’re running our updated Field of 64, the list of the 64 House seats we consider most likely to switch parties in the fall. (No. 1, for instance, is the seat we consider most likely to flip.) For Republicans to take back the House, they need to pick up a NET of 39 seats. (So if Democrats are able to win three or four GOP seats, as they’re hoping to do, then Republicans must win 42 or 43 Democratic seats.) Political journalists and junkies: Clip and save this list, because it gives you a good idea of where the House battlefield is and whether or not Republicans can reach the number it needs to take back the House. There are 58 Democratic-held seats on this list, and six GOP-held ones.
1. TN-6 (D-Open-Gordon) LIKELY R
2. LA-3 (D-Open-Melancon) LIKELY R
3. DE-AL (R-Open-Castle) LIKELY D
4. AR-2 (D-Open-Snyder) LIKELY R
5. NY-29 (D-Open-Massa) LIKELY R
6. LA-2 (R-Cao) LEAN D
7. OH-15 (D-Kilroy) LEAN R
8. OH-1 (D-Driehaus) LEAN R
9. KS-3 (D-Open-Moore) LEAN R
10. CO-4 (D-Markey) LEAN R
11. FL-24 (D-Kosmas) LEAN R
12. N-8 (D-Open-Ellsworth) LEAN R
13. IL-10 (R-Open-Kirk) LEAN D
14. MD-1 (D-Kratovil) LEAN R
15. VA-5 (D-Perriello) LEAN R
16. VA-2 (D-Nye) LEAN R
17. AZ-5 (D-Mitchell) TOSS UP
18. OH-16 (D-Boccieri) TOSS UP
19. PA-7 (D-Sestak-Open) TOSS UP
20. NM-2 (D-Teague) TOSS UP
21. PA-3 (D-Dahlkemper) TOSS UP
22. IL-11 (D-Halvorson) TOSS UP
23. AZ-1 (D-Kirkpatrick) TOSS UP
24. FL-2 (D-Boyd) TOSS UP
25. PA-11 (D-Kanjorski) TOSS UP
26. AR-1 (D-Open-Berry) TOSS UP
27. FL-8 (D-Grayson) TOSS UP
28. HI-1 (R-Djou) TOSS UP
29. PA-8 (D-Murphy) TOSS UP
30. ND-AL (D-Pomeroy) TOSS UP
31. SC-5 (D-Spratt) TOSS UP
32. NV-3 (D-Titus) TOSS UP
33. MS-1 (D-Childers) TOSS UP
34. TN-8 (D-Open-Tanner) TOSS UP
35. TX-17 (D-Edwards) TOSS UP
36. NH-1 (D-Shea-Porter) TOSS UP
37. MI-1 (D-Open-Stupak) TOSS UP
38. NH-2 (D-Open-Hodes) TOSS UP
39. SD-AL (D-Herseth Sandlin) TOSS UP
40. MI-7 (D-Schauer) TOSS UP
41. NY-19 (D-Hall) TOSS UP
42. WA-3 (D-Open-Baird) TOSS UP
43. OH-13 (D-Sutton) TOSS UP
44. WI-8 (D-Kagen) TOSS UP
45. NY-24 (D-Arcuri) TOSS UP
46. IN-9 (D-Hill) TOSS UP
47. IL-14 (D-Foster) TOSS UP
48. TX-23 (D-Rodriguez) TOSS UP
49. IL-17 (D-Hare) TOSS UP
50. CO-3 (D-Salazar) TOSS UP
51. GA-2 (D-Bishop) TOSS UP
52. CA-11 (D-McNerney) TOSS UP
53. WI-7 (D-Obey-Open) TOSS UP
54. AL-2 (D-Bright) TOSS UP
55. AZ-8 (D-Giffords) TOSS UP
56. WV-1 (D- Open-Mollohan) TOSS UP
57. NM-1 (D-Heinrich) LEAN D
58. NJ-3 (D-Adler) LEAN D
59. NC-8 (D-Kissell) LEAN D
60. GA-8 (D-Marshall) LEAN D
61. CA-3 (R-Lungren) LEAN R
62. NY-20 (D-Murphy) LEAN D
63. FL-25 (R-Diaz-Balart) LEAN R
64. IA-3 (D-Boswell) LEAN D
Leave a Comment:
Revealing...
Only 6 of the 64 seats First Read believes most likely to change hands are currently held by Republicans.
I wouldn't call the IL 11 & IL 14 a toss up... BOTH candidates are running STRONG campaigns
The 14th District has been predominantly RED and is the seat once held by ex-Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.
Grayson a toss up??? Latest poll has him up by 13%
Hope you are right. I really want to see Grayson re-elected.
13% Points ahead, and they call it a toss up? Frankly this is the kind of spin that gives me more confidence that the wave the pundits are trying to sell us is more wishful then factual.
Bingo Patrick! The MSM's narrative is that the Republicans have this in the 'bag' so there is NO reason to get out and make your vote COUNT!
Despicable.... I think there are going to many surprises come 11.3.10 and they are not going to be good ones for the right wingers...
The poll showing Grayson ahead was an internal to his campaign, so you have to take it with a grain of salt. However, if other polls (unmentioned by the MSM) show Grayson in a tie, that's pretty good considering he's an unabashed liberal in a conservative district, during a time when the tide has turned against Democrats. If there were more Democrats like him and fewer of the cowards like thoe ones who blocked the vote on middle-class tax cuts, the Democrats might be a much better position.
While Feisty is pulling up to the polling place with a load of liberal voters in her rented Prius, we conservatives will be pulling up in our double-decker buses.
Do you know what a "Landslide" is Feisty? If you don't, you will soon. And you won't be happy about it.
We'll see about that JoAnna... we'll just wait and see...
"Cocky' is not an attractive emotion... as you've demonstrated so eloquently... lol
BTW: I've been meaning to ask... I see you, dangerfield & mixed bag here today... where's Holocaustic & PragmatictoaFault? Furlough days?
One things for sure... and that is there's NO doubt the gang's all here...
The uptake, Feisty. Be quick on it. C'mon.
Sorry ED... the fleas are nipping at my ankles...
For a second there I thought I heard something..no it's nothing at all...
Maybe they should devote more time to their most important pursuit, protesting their collapsed posts and picking on the kid moderator.instead of constantly picking fights with the grown-ups...whichever screen name they use..
Gotta be lousy wine at the Dew Drop, as it is obviously made from bitter, sour grapes...lol
you just gave me reason not to believe "First Read" as being credible information; but more as entertainment. Thanks for the hedzup!!!!
The Poll showing Grayson was up by 13% was paid for by Grayson and the company doing the Poll was not known to do them before Grayson commissioned them to do his. Also the Polling company would not release the entire data of the Poll and it was only based off of polling of less than 400 potential voters in his District. That should say something about the Poll if Grayson nor the Polling company are releasing the data. Also only 400 voters? Real good poll!!!
How flattering that my absence from a vine on which I only rarely participate is noticed by someone with whom I've never actually had any direct discussion - and in fact by someone who rarely actually discusses anything but simply starts in with personal attacks and brainless one-liners.
There was no furlough, I simply don't feel the need to comment, much less pontificate or throw around one line insults, on every single vine. There has been nothing worth commenting on over the past week, since both parties seem to be fully engaged in nothing but stupidity.
This particular aritcle speaks for itself. It seems pretty certain at this point that the Republicans will take back the House, and gain seats but not the majority in the Senate.
I'm not convinced that's a good thing, beyond preferring gridlock to the policies the Democrats and Obama have been pushing for the past 20 months.
Anything to add, Feisty, or will you just resort to insults. Assuming you even read this, since you seem to prefer grenades not discussion.
I encourage everyone to check out RealClearPolitics.com. When used as a predictor, their final averages right before the election predict the winner with pretty high accuracy. Right now, they rate the Grayson race as Lean GOP. I am putting more stock in their findings than in an internal Grayson poll. I will turn cartwheels if Grayson is ousted.
You misunderstand. Grayson is a "toss-up" because that's what most people do when they hear to the filth spewed from this diseased individual.
VCI... How about Voters Comedic Indecision...
My son was channel surfing the other night, and made an astute comment... Fox is mad at the GOP and now MSNBC is mad at the DEMs... Guess that makes everyone "fair and balanced"?...
In the end, people will vote for their own best interests - and this year it couldn't be clearer...
yOU ARE RIGHT IT COULDN'T BE CLEARER vote REPUBLICAN period
Absolutists are always so adorable.
Absolutists are always so adorable.
couldn't agree more
and we have them on both sides...
cootiche-cootiche-coo!
I'm not familiar with Il politics, but here in Idaho it looks like the democrat will keep his seat in the 1st district. Although he is truly a blue dog, he still is keeping his seat in this political fire storm. You just never know.
Likely, Lean------There is a lot of wiggle room in such prognostications.
Covering all bets, are ya' Chuck?
Hurry Monday and Mr. O'Donnell-----The Last Word!
Thanks for your work on this and the close tabs you're keeping on all the races. Very important information at this point.
Why doesn't the press do some investigating on how the corporate owned Supreme Courts decision to open the flood gates on campaign funding is effecting the election? Do not let it be said that the United States of America hasn't got the best government money can buy. A handful of rich and powerful own the government, the press, the people of this country have no voice whatsoever anymore, why even have this faux election? Our greatness is gone.
Indiana's 8th District: Brad Ellsworths old seat will likely go Republican.
I am aware that the pundits believe that Coats will beat Ellsworth for Bayh's senate seat, and he might. But it just dawned on me. There hasn't been one, not one Ellsworth ad up in Southern Indiana. That doesn't mean that Ellsworth has no money to run adds. I suspect he is keeping his powder dry and plans to peak on November 1st. Coats has run a bunch a negative ads, but farmers are harvesting their fields and people are not paying much attention.
Ron,
Who was the knucklehead that said on tape that Social Security was a hand out? He's from the Seymour area.
Paul: You are paying attention to details.
Mike Pence comes to mind. But isn't Mike from the Columbus area?
No, wasn't him. I think it was a Congressman. I seen the attack ad while in Seymour and I don't know if he was a Democrat or Republican.
x
191(d)-38(toss-up) -206(r) according to the averages at Real Clear Politics
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html
Nate Silver has it 223(r)-212(d)
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
The question today is, can anything be done, or will anything happen to change the trajectory of this election in the next 5 weeks?
The question becomes, if indeed it is going to be a republican controlled house, can the president find a way, as president Clinton did after the '94 mid-terms, to co-opt parts of their agenda to his own purposes?
You know what they say about chickens and eggs.
Yes- they cross the road for fowl reasons. In fact, to distance themselves from their salmonella tainted eggs. BUT- they better be careful, because they COULD wind up being captured, and bartered for an eye-exam or chest x-Ray.
Martin Heinrich, (NM, 1st)? How bizarre! He is in good shape! This feeding frenzy by the GOP is getting surreal. Read 538 blog to get a more accurate, less sensationalized account of the mid-terms.
In addition to IN-8, IN-2 is having a ton of GOP outside money thrown in. Because of the constitutional amendment on the ballot for property tax caps - I don't see any Dem surviving in IN. What surprises me more is in IL where the Dems are having to defend at least 3 seats. There is no coordinated plan whatsoever in Obama's own state. It's not like they are concentrating money to retain the governorship - they aren't. Instead it appears that the state party is only concerned about retaining the state legislature (that's where the real money is) and everyone else is on their own. Hell, they couldn't even keep Melissa Bean in line on the tax extension - so it's no surprise that Obama has little influence even in his adopted home state.
In an attempt to bolster political turmoil and public controversy, polls - once the domain of independent analytics - is now controlled by and for the media. Polling paid for by the media is a self promoting vehicle that uses controlled questioning methodology and an audience selected to provide answers that support the media narrative to skew results.
I love the comments here. You folks definitely know how to make lemonade out of very SOUR lemons. Can't wait to see the comments on November 3rd.
That reminds me. Whatever happened to all those FR regulars who, a year and a half ago were gloating about the demise of the GOP and constantly making remarks about the extinction of the repubs? Don't hear too much of that crap around here anymore.
And, you gotta love Obama and the Dems new campaign of fear in trying to scare America regarding the "tea Party" candidates success. So much for all that "hope" and positivity. Just goes to show: Obama was full of it when he said he wanted to be the "ONE" that brings people together. What he really meant (as all us common sense people knew all along) was that he wanted to bring all the "stupid" people around to his way of thinking. He succeeded with many, but that's not too hard with left-leaning types.
FR Regulars don't HAVE to talk about the demise of the Republicans. The Baggers of the Tea variety are doing it for them.
"Regional Party" was the term used to describe the Republicans a year ago. Looks like that regional party will be running at least the House and probably the Senate in 4 months. It's amazing what 20 months of total failure by the Democrats can do to revive a political party.
Any one measure the height of the seas lately? Obama said he'd lower them. Whats the old depth chart down at the pier say about that?
." It's amazing what 20 months of total failure by the Democrats can do to revive a political party."
JoAnna- is it Failure of the Democrats, or an incessant, unyeilding stream of noise and nonsense generously funded by the likes of the Koch Industries folks and the Murdochs of the world? Avoiding a complete depression and allowing millions access to decent health care doesn't sound like total failure to me.
But then again, what do I know?
Great question! Here, let me check, . . . . . . . . . . . No, sorry, it's the failure of the Democrats.
Next the Democrats will tell us they lowered the seas.
It'll be interesting to see what damage to the GOP 24 months of Republican control of Congress yields. If that pledge is anything to go on, all I'm expecting is the same @!$%# from a different shovel.
ED - agreed on the Republicans. It's not like they did anything to get into the position they are in today. They're just reaping the rewards of the Democrats being such huge failures.
Republicans have one huge challenge, they have to produce bi-partisan legislation that Obama will sign that starts to fix the problems of the country. To do that, they have to first have answers to those problems, and they also have to sell those ideas to the American people, kind of like they did very well back in the '90s. They got a chance to get that done because they have several compelling members that seem quite bright and are not total political hacks (Paul Ryan of WI for example).
And if the CBO comes back and says they did, we'll have to make sure they didn't measure it at low tide.
ONLY difference between the Dems and GOP'ers is the GOP'ers will want to lick the shovel! So if YOU think Social Security is "welfare" or Veteran's Benefits are welfare that goes to the trash stupid enough to fight America's wars...then ENJOY November! Say, how come we haven't fought a war in South America lately? Quick, somebody make up a good story about weapons of mass destruction!
It'll be interesting to see the opinions of the MSM do a 180 if there's a republican congress to criticise...
Sort of like the Mark Twain quote;
When I was a boy of 14, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be 21, I was astonished at how much the old man had learned in seven years." ...
...skirting the more insane comments...
Joanna, I think you touched on something very important that the Republicans either aren't willing to articulate in public or remain blind to; something that the average Tea Party member probably hasn't realized, either.
There seems to be some sort of fervent belief that Republican/Tea Party-backed candidates will sweep both chambers to the point of acquiring that coveted 3/4 veto-overriding majority. Despite a big win for the right being a forgone conclusion at this point, I highly doubt they can post the numbers to ignore the executive branch entirely. God knows the Democrats will be paying the Republicans back in spades after the mid-terms - for as much difficulty as the left had courting people lik Snowe and Collins, the GOP will be equally hard-pressed to win support from what will likely be a very soured opposition.
What wins the Republicans gain this season will only mean something if they can drop the tempermental populist rhetoric and find a middling path with both Obama and Congressional Democrats. That's providing, of course, the Republicans learn how to think critically sometime between the election and the successive session.
Ohh, you're going have to show a credible source of anyone that believes that ED. At best, and that's not belittling what the Republicans will accomplish because they were so much in the minority, at best they'll have a 10 seat majority in the House, and maybe a 1 or 2 seat majority in the Senate. Hardly anything that will override any veto, not without a lot of Democrats getting on board.
But what the People of the country will have is the undivided attention of members of Congress. It's been a while since once they are elected Congress listens much to the People, maybe this time We have their attention. If they want to keep their jobs, they better start solving some problems. And if Obama continues to stay on the far-left of the political spectrum, there will be some Democrats that will challenge him by voting to override some of his vetos.
All I ask for is a movement towards bi-partisan compromises and a little less party ideology.
Common sense: so rare it's a goddamned super-power.
That one is easy.
It will go from: "What do the Democrats need to do to turn around these unwarranted perceptions of their shortcomings, shortcomings that were caused by what they inherited from the GOP?" to "The Republicans have really screwed this up, it's doubtful they can recover from this mess they created".
That is the only path the Republicans can take. They have to be everything the Democrats have not been - They have to have an open and transparent process to develop legislation, inclusion of the (barely) minority party in all discussions from sub-committees through floor votes, ability to select compromise over ideology, and not be in front of the cameras 24/7 cutting down the (barely) minority party.
That's one part.
The other part lives at 1600 Pennsylvania. If he keeps up the partisan attacks and doesn't want to play ball, the Republicans can pass legislation all they want, he'll just veto it, and he'll also lose re-election in 2012.
Given the heavy-hitters the GOP's fronting as likely Presidential candidates at the current moment, I do not want to see Obama lose his bid for re-election in 2012.
About what the Republicans must do to survive - couldn't agree more.
Dangerfield - It'll be interesting to see the opinions of the MSM do a 180 if there's a republican congress to criticise...
If the house and senate swings, still don't think they have the numbers, but if it does; I guess as opponents to a republican controlled Congress, Democrats must form into loud, belligerent vocal critics of republican ideas one week after the new freshman house and senate members are sworn in. After all, it took only one week after Obama's inauguration for the first Tea Parties to form.
If they want to govern the GOP better be prepared to hear a populace wanting to see results. If the past is any indicator, the GOP will not help out the middle class. Neither will the MSM highlight the worsening climate that will happen if and when the GOP takes control. Somehow I think the media will run with who took them to the party..."GOP unable to steer country away from Dem controlled abyss"
Somehow I think if the worst case scenario happens, Democrats will work with the majority. The GOP better be ready to move things along. But based on what they presented in their 17 page document, GOP plans will only help the corporations get richer and funnel more money into overseas tax shelters and overseas jobs.
I honestly thought LSD25 & WindowPane were things of the Past, but JS1'z delusional post prove otherwise.
Stop Bogartin, JS1 !
"They have to have an open and transparent process to develop legislation, inclusion of the (barely) minority party in all discussions from sub-committees through floor votes, ability to select compromise over ideology, and not be in front of the cameras 24/7 cutting down the (barely) minority party"
History doesn't speak well to the chances for that to happen, and neither do the attitudes of current Republican leadership. http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2010_08/025065.php Why should the White House be accomodating and gracious to a group that already intends to unleash the hounds and hunt them into extinction? http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/41915.html
ED-the republican field for '12 is purely media speculation. In other words, we have yet to see the field.
That said, I am hoping that Mitch Daniels, governor of Indiana, gets into the race. (He seems to be waiting to be drafted. I'll serve on the draft board, if necessary).
As to whether or not Obama is capable of pivoting the way that Clinton did: I doubt it. Clinton was pragmatic, and had been a governor. He was also committed to rebuilding the Democratic party-which had not held the White House in 12 years. Obama seems to be driven by his own, somewhat faulty, vision. The man cannot ever seem to admit that something he has tried has failed. So, no, I don't see him 'pulling a Clinton'. If he vetoes everything-well, so be it. It is a lead pipe cinch that he won't be successful at pushing through any more of his agenda-and a lot of what he has rammed through will be de-funded.
We'll have to wait for '12 to get it repealed, but so what? We can make it that far, as long as Iran doesn't start World War III.
Once again, more likes by the pro-right wing supporters. If Obama was any more open to Republican ideas, he might as well have switched parties. As a result of trying (unsuccessfully) to get Republicans on board, we got a stimulus bill that stimulated nothing (b/c of including very little actual stimulus measures in favor of tax breaks), and a health care bill that had some important regulations,but also failed to provide a key element, a public option.
However, I agree that both parties are going to have to make greater efforts to work together. If that means Dems will have to move more toward the center to accommodate republican majorities (probably in the House, but not the Senate) so be it. However, I forsee that biggest problem for Repbulicans coming from within the part, not from Dems. Being out of power might unified Dems, while being in power could fragment Republicans, who will be divided between the ideological and the pragmatic. If the pragmatics win, we just might have policy move forward, if the ideologies win, there won't be any movement whatsoever.
BTW, no matter who is in charge of the Republican-led House, it would be a SEVERE mistake to open up all sorts of hearings. That would send a signal that Repulicans care more about political payback than in getting things done. One of the smartest things that the Democrats did once they took power, especially with the Obama administration was to not hold hearings every day on the screwups of the Bush administration, which more than Clinton committed more arguably impeachable offenses. Get to the business of running government, and don't break out the long knives unless there is something that is on the level of true high scandal and not just rumor or minor politics as usual.
I know liberals are delusional when they start complaing about the media!
Would that be the LIBERAL media? You know- like Fox, or any of the hundreds of AM talk radio stations scattered around the country???
The Republican cry now is, “we know what to do – put us in charge”. The rational response to that of course is to question why they would have kept it secret so long and just criticized and obstructed everything. They have consistently put their political ambitions above all else, at any cost to the people, and have said and done everything to rationalize their positions and to manipulate public opinion – without hesitation or conscience. Why should anyone now believe something has changed? No, their concentration actually has constantly been on just being ‘puppets’ for Special Interests and the select few who strongly support them and who ‘pull their strings’ and there is nothing to indicate there has been any change in that. They want to repeal all of the changes already made, which would put us right back to where we were, and they want us to believe then they would turn around and make appropriate changes, those that they have strongly faulted and resisted all along and that their supporters don’t want. They may now admit that changes are really required but with their history and demonstrated loyalty to the very few, while giving only subterfuge to the many, there isn’t any real justification to believe that they want anything other than to return to ‘more of the same’ that cost us so much and that serves only the few. There is simply no honest or conscientious base established to justify trusting them, in fact, the last ten years has provided ample justification to not trust them. Their rhetoric is completely deceptive and totally insulting in their arrogantly thinking that people are just so easily conned.
There is no hope offered in ever returning to ‘more of the same’ as that only satisfies the very few. What we need is the changes already being implemented and to see them adjusted and fine tuned and definitely not repealed which would leave us with no progress. The Republicans, regular or Tea Party, offer nothing but a return to ‘more of the same’ and to firmly reject them now, along with their self-serving subterfuge aimed to manipulate, should prompt them to understand it is about honestly, conscientiously and responsibly representing the people, not just the few.
It must be very satisfying to know that your Democratic party is so far above all of the pettiness, corruption, and greed which you attribute solely to the GOP. Its funny, but if you actually read your comment, every supposed evil you heap upon the GOP can just as easily reflect the Obama administration.
How is "we can't afford to return to more of the same" any different than "we must continue to move forward"? It seems that when something doesn't work, we need to try something different. But I guess it's hard for a politician, especially one so highly touted as Obama, to admit that, just maybe, his sense of direction is not so good.
For what it's worth, I will just say that those who cling so fiercely to partisan politics are doing more harm to the country than any crooked senator could ever do, as it is the idiots who are blinded by party affiliation that put these charlatans in office.
Because of the failures of Bush, Dems took over the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. After two years of broken promises and outright lies, you still think having a tiny "D" next to the name makes a politician any less of a crook than one with a tiny "R"?
The really slick politicians change the tiny letter whenever it suits the political climate. A really crafty crook can stay in office for several decades, so long as he can count on people voting that 'straight party' ticket.
What needs to happen for any real change is for voters to look past the smoke screen of partisan politics, open their eyes to what is actually being done, and stop blindly accepting those happy but empty campaign promises, or the mud-slinging, from both sides.
Just because the GOP claims it will return to fiscally conservative policy doesn't make it true. It doesn't mean this will fix our problems. But neither does Obama's promise of, well, pretty much everything he has promised...
IA-3 will stay in Boswell's hands. He's well liked here and his opponent, Brad Zaun has enormous baggage. Plus he's just nasty, but doesn't have the money to knock down Boswell by running a big dollar negative campaign.
check this out
Date: Tuesday, September 7, 2010, 5:08 PM
The bill is HR-4646 introduced by US Rep Peter deFazio
D-Oregon and US Senator Tom Harkin D-Iowa. It is now in
committee and will probably not be brought out until after
the Nov. elections.
One percent transaction tax is proposed
President Obama's finance team is recommending a transaction tax. His plan
is to sneak it in after the November election to keep it under the radar. This
is a 1% tax on all transactions at any financial institution i. e. Banks, Credit
Unions , etc.. Any deposit you make, or move around within your account, i. e.
transfer to, will have a 1% tax charged. If your pay check or your social
Security or whatever is direct deposit , 1% tax charged. If you hand carry a
check in to deposit, 1% tax charged, If you take cash in to deposit, 1% tax
charged. This is from the man who promised that if you make under $250,000
per year, you will not see one penny of new tax.
Some will say it's just 1%... but remember that once the tax is enacted
it can be raised at will.
http://www.standard.net/node/44797 check it out for OBAMA will do anything to harm this country.
I wish Ellie would also include the whole idea - the bill calls for the elimination of the income tax. I am not sure if this is good or bad -- I need to think on it. but i wish she would tell the whole story and not try to push our buttonss with half truths.
Wasn't this cover before Ellie? Smitty, there's more than just that though. You can basically call it extortion by the Government.
Beware of a half truth. You may have the wrong half.
In Maine, it looks like Chellie Pingree (D) will retain her seat, however, Republicans are trying to make a stink that she flies on her billionaire fiancee's private jet on occassion. Pingree had criticized Republicans for flying on private jets owned by lobbyists, so the Republicans are trying to smear her with the fact her fiance owns a jet. Kinda weak, but its all they've got.
In other news, The Tea Party candidate has to pay Florida $1,400 for claiming a homestead exemption on both his houses in Florida and the one in Maine. I'm still not clear how this affects the in-state tuition his kids paid in Florida. (Can a resident of Florida run for the office of Governor of Maine?)
Apparently they can, Amy. After all, history's shown that Arkansas residents can run for Senate positions in New York.
Uh, so can Massachusetts residents if memory serves...
You must have LEGAL residency in a state to run for office there. Residency requirements vary by state.
Here's one, for Ohio...
http://codes.ohio.gov/orc/gp3.15
Touche' Exodite Dragon
Thanks for the info dangerfield.
Amy B.: We may disagree politically (based on your posts) but you are a class act.
Amy,
hmmmmmmmm...........not sure, I know the standard homestead is for only one house in Florida and that's $50K for a resident. For the kids, if they went to High School in Florida than they get in-state tuition no matter if he's a Maine resident.
I see this is about the House; but this one is interesting,...
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/senate-republican-launch-ad-in.html
Go Robin, we CAN do this! Roy Blunt and his son ARE/WERE BAD for Missouri!
This November we must be on our guard, vigilant against illegal aliens violating our voting federal laws, specifically in California and Nevada, but also every other state. Absentee ballot voting is specifically vulnerable in an "honor System" that doesn't work anymore. In states loaded down with illegal aliens, we should be well aware without picture ID, anybody can vote as our voting system can be easily compromised. States with negative approval ratings for Liberal-Democratic Senators or Representatives, must keep an eye on foreign nationals who may try to violate this citizenship right.
I've been surprised that the the Conservative fairy tales of voter fraud haven't been more widely circulated this year. Presumably that's because Republicans expect to do very well and they only need to pump up perception of voter fraud when they lose. At those times they aren't a bit afraid to attack the very fabric of our democracy by planting fears of something that's extraordinarily rare. http://www.brennancenter.org/content/resource/policy_brief_on_the_truth_about_voter_fraud/
Whether or not you believe in the story of the Tower of Babel; I offer the following:
Exclusive of a specific political party, in the US we have proponents (each with a different agenda) of: Climate Change, Nuclear Non-Proliferation, Animal Rights, Religous Beliefs (Christian, Hebrew, Muslim, Hindi, Pagan, etc.), Strong Military, Weak Military, Ethnic Rights, Immigrant Issues, Sexual Orientation Issues, ad infinitum, ad nauseum. Each group has dozens of sub-groups with various levels of extremism. Basically, the US has tens of thousands of individuals representing millions of disparate voices that all claim intellectual supremacy. What was once the voice that spoke for the nation has become millions of voices that scream to be heard and the resulting mixture of sounds assures that voices can not be heard or understood.
Politicians surround themselves with 'benefactors' who 'voice' their opinions with obscene amounts of money. The dollar is the loudest voice in the US....every politician hears the sound of a dollar. Quite frankly, YOUR voice (irrespective of political beliefs) means nothing without the dollars to headline your philosophy. Keep spouting your individual political view, I can guaranty you will not be heard as an individual.....unless you have the money to buy a voice. Tower of Babel???? Yep, too many voices with no communication. Keep widening the divide between Democrat and Republican; keep the war of words between Liberal and Conservative; keep the race baiting....yeah! Keep everything so sacrosanct to YOUR cause....forget about the US.
Another list;
Election 2010: Senate, House & Governor Races
(Senate, House Races Ranked in Order of RCP Likelihood to Switch Party)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/election_2010/battle_for_congress.html
Bad News in Illinois if Rothenberg is right...
State Waves Add to Democrats’ National Woes
By Stuart Rothenberg
In Illinois, for example, there are signs of a GOP wave that could give Republicans the state’s governorship, a Senate seat and some House seats.
Voters in the state, certainly fatigued from the bizarre drama surrounding former Gov. Rod Blagojevich and angry about the economy, seem prepared to elect Republican Bill Brady over the sitting governor, Democrat Pat Quinn, who succeeded the discredited Blagojevich when he was impeached in 2009.
Brady has been leading Quinn in polling since the February primary, and voters seem to have lost patience with the state’s Democrats. That can’t be helping state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D), who was hoping to hold the Senate seat once held by President Barack Obama. Giannoulias may not be able to swim against the current in his race against Rep. Mark Kirk (R).
In the state’s Congressional races, Rep. Debbie Halvorson, a former state Senate Democratic leader, looks likely to lose her seat after just a single term. Democratic Rep. Phil Hare unexpectedly finds himself fighting for re-election in the state’s 17th district, and Rep. Bill Foster (D) is hoping to hang on by his fingernails in the 14th district.
And Republicans might be able to hang on to Kirk’s open seat because of the Illinois voters’ change of heart about the two parties this year. Remember, Illinois is no longer the swing state that it was 30 years ago. It’s solidly Democratic — normally."
http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_29/rothenberg/50120-1.html?type=aggregate_friendly
What is WRONG with the democrats in ILLINOIS?...
dangerfield-the state is not paying its bills, and has not, since the beginning of the year. The corrections department cannot buy ammunition, as they have not payed their supplier. Schools and agencies cannot get paper, pens, ink, etc., because they have not paid the bills.
I'm thinking that the voters in Illinois think that maybe a change needs to be made. . .