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"With polls showing Republicans well-positioned to win the Senate and gubernatorial contests in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, House Democratic strategists are increasingly worried about the down-ballot drag the top of the ticket could have in the two battleground states," Roll Call writes.
Stu Rothenberg notes states where Democrats will be hurt because of the top of the ticket: "[A]n unusual dynamic also seems to be working against Democrats this year that could add to the party’s woes: the weakness of both Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates in some key states." Some states that are tough: Illinois, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and the worst of all: Ohio. He also argues that California helps Republicans and Nevada's effect is unclear at this point.
The AP notes the sleeper issue of abortion: "An unusually large contingent of female Republican candidates with strong anti-abortion views is heating up debate on the issue and could change the political equation in the next Congress. In California, Nevada, Delaware and New Hampshire, the GOP nominees for seats in the U.S. Senate are women who favor outlawing most abortions. All have been endorsed by Sarah Palin, who calls herself a 'pro-life feminist.' A win by any one of them would fill a void. All 17 women now in the Senate, including four Republicans, support relatively broad abortion rights."
CALIFORNIA: “California First Lady Maria Shriver has managed to put together the ‘must-see’ event of the campaign season: an unscripted converstion between California gubernatorial candidates Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman, who'll join Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on stage in conversation about governing California at her upcoming Women’s Conference in Long Beach,” the San Francisco Chronicle writes.
COLORADO: Ken Buck leads Michael Bennet 49%-44% in a CNN/Time poll. And in the governor's race, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper leads Constitution Party candidate and former Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo, 47%-29% with Republican Dan Maes pulling 21%. http://bit.ly/a7SM3m and http://bit.ly/cYPc7c
DELAWARE: Chris Coons leads Christine O'Donnell 55%-39% in a CNN/Time poll. http://bit.ly/cYPc7c
KENTUCKY: "Lawyer Andy Barr (R) is within 7 points of Rep. Ben Chandler (D) in the Lexington-based 6th district, according to a new internal Barr campaign polling memo obtained by Roll Call. The poll, which was in the field Monday and Tuesday, showed the Congressman ahead 49 percent to 42 percent, with 9 percent undecided. Barr’s poll is not only significant because it showed the Congressman under the all-important 50 percent mark, but it also pushes back against a Chandler poll from earlier this week that showed the Congressman with a 20-point lead. A Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee survey from earlier this month put Chandler up by 14 points."
MASSACHUSETTS: "The Republican Governors Association will launch an advertising blitz today aimed directly at Governor Deval Patrick, training its fire on the Democratic incumbent after spending much of the spring and summer wounding state Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill’s independent bid for the corner office," the Boston Globe reports. "The estimated $1.8 million ad campaign appears to be modeled on a strategy the association used successfully last."
NEW HAMPSHIRE: “Attorney Ovide Lamontagne, who came within 1,667 votes of defeating former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte in the GOP primary for Senate, is headlining a fundraiser for the new nominee next week,” Politico writes.
NEW YORK: The Daily News' Daly: "Hey, Carl, you don't have to become Gov. Paladino to give taxpayers a break and cut the state budget. You can do it right now. Just cut the $5,251,415 in rent you collect each year on 28 leases with 17 state agencies."
The New York Times front-pages Dem worries about the new Quinnipiac poll, which shows Paladino just six points behind Andrew Cuomo. Andrew M. Cuomo’s painstakingly constructed veneer of political invincibility began to crack on Wednesday, as he and his advisers struggled with how to handle his combative opponent in the race for New York governor, Carl P. Paladino, whom a new poll showed with unexpected strength.”
OHIO: National Journal writes that the Buckeye State contains “the voters Obama is losing -- white-collar managers in Columbus, blue-collar union workers in Youngstown, pro-life independents around Cincinnati,” which are “are exactly the types he needs to win re-election in 2012, and they're backing away from his party in droves.”
PENNSYLVANIA: Pat Toomey (R) leads Joe Sestak (D) in the CNN/Time poll.
In PA-3, Kathy Dahlkemper trails 42%-38% against lawyer Mike Kelly in a Franklin & Marshall poll.
VIRGINIA: "A local ABC television affiliate in Lynchburg, Va., this week pulled an ad run by the conservative third-party group Americans for Job Security after Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.) said the ads were false and misleading. AJS references the study when it says, 'Rick Boucher supports Nancy Pelosi 96 percent of the time' in its ad, which went on the air Sept. 9," Roll Call reports. "But after Boucher’s complaint, WSET-TV President Randy Smith reviewed the ad and found that the Washington Post study “does not appear to compare votes by Congressman Boucher with those by Ms. Pelosi nor does it equate Ms. Pelosi with the Democratic Party. Hence the ad appears to be misleading.”
WISCONSIN: Ron Johnson (R) leads Russ Feingold (D) 51%-45% in the CNN/Time poll.
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It must be the fluoride in the water. If Penn. wants to elect a Santorum clone (and a darker one at that), then god help them. If Wisc. wants to turn out Feingold, then they should remove every reference to Bob LaFollette in their state - they don't deserve it. And I'll venture to guess that most Wisc. voters have no idea who he was.
Interestingly, as I look at these poll numbers several points come to mind. First, I do not think that their sample size is large enough nor the sample demography reflective of the actual voters. That being said, if you really look at the numbers many, if not most, are within their own margin of error. As an example, take the Colorado race between Buck and Bennett, 49% - 44%. Add 3% to Bennett and take away that 3% from Buck and you suddenly have 46% - 47%. Way too much is being made of these statistically tied races.
Then there is the battle of the 'internal polls'. I would give absolutely zero credence to those. Look at the Barr Chandler race, they are tens of percentage points different within a week of each other. Somehow I think the questions might have been a little biased and the sample demographic a little skewed in each poll.
It is my hope that all of the pundits will be eating crow come November 3rd and the Democrats will actually gain in both houses. Why the heck would we want to return to power the very people who put us into the worst recession since the Great Depression? Why the heck would we want to elect people who do not even have a basic understanding of what the Constitution actually means or the actual history of this country? The Republicans earned our scorn, the TEA Partiers have earned our sympathy but not our votes.
It isn’t conservatism v liberalism as is trying to be sold as the cause; socialism isn’t even close to being a scare (in fact, with long running neglect, irresponsibility and a conservative concentration the pendulum has literally swung far to the right). No, what is really happening is a concerted effort to, both overtly and covertly, effect domination by an ultra-conservative mentality which favors only the few. There is a real effort to capture people’s thinking, to deceive and manipulate public opinion, by using emotional appeals to biases, prejudices and fears, disinformation, scare tactics and more, all cutely, boldly, aggressively and obnoxiously presented, to keep people from being rational and instead to have them be fearfully excited and to support positions and candidates that favor only the few. Special Interests and the influential, powerful and extremely wealthy few, all who stand to greatly gain, are ‘pulling the strings’, are spending the effort and the money and are perpetrating the con and the Republicans, both Tea Party and regular, have become their ‘puppets’.
The proof is seen in that what they want is to return to ‘more of the same’, more of what they had under Bush-Cheney, more of what cost the majority so much and what caused the problems – when what we saw was the majority, including the total middle-class, constantly loosing and only the very wealthy consistently gaining. Who can actually believe that if given the power and the control that after they set things back, repealed the changes and returned to ‘more of the same’, that then they who have clearly demonstrated they are against all change, they would then implement the real needed changes? Who of the majority can survive more given to the few as it significantly costs everyone else? Bush-Cheney completely focused on benefit for only Special Interests and the select few while giving the majority only apathy, the costs and an abundance of subterfuge to rationalize their actions and manipulate public opinion; this country really can’t afford to return to ‘more of the same’.
The Democratic party here in Colorado has been a real disappointment. While Gov. Bill Ritter was in power he managed to impose more regulation, sales taxes and double lic. plate fees, while doing very little for the people that elected him. I don't think I will be the only Democrat voter in Co. that will cross party lines this November.
It won't be the first time for me, Obama has proved to be a an embarrassment to the party, like I knew he would be, just another G.W. with a sun tan. More of the same damaging foreign and domestic policies, a phoney STIMIULAS package that did very little to help struggling Americans that have lost jobs, homes and in some cases families. While continuing another EXPENSIVE Viet Nam style of war, with NO clear objective as to why we are putting our troops in HARMS WAY.
Unfortunately the Republicans with their "lets give the rich a tax break and some more corporate welfare, while we cut education and S.S.I.", is a insult to those that pay (have paid) their taxes, need to prepare their children for the future and should have S.S.I in their old age.
It really is time for a third party, a party that represents the PEOPLE, here in Co. and the U.S. NOT the corporate interest that have dominated the political landscape for the past thirty years
I just saw that Harry and the Dems can't get a vote on the expiring tax cuts before the election --what a shame, we need to have that circus to show the difference between the two parties (unfortunately. too many defectors from the Democratic party) Amazing how spineless and feckless these fools are. I am so disappointed.