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First thoughts: Rocky times for Colo. GOP

Tough times for the GOP in Colorado… Today's war supplemental vote expected to pass, despite the WikiLeaks leak… Senate Democrats aren't expected to be able to defeat GOP filibuster against DISCLOSE Act… Obama meets with congressional leaders at 11:00 am ET and delivers a statement to reporters an hour later… NRSC has reserved $1.75 million to help Carly Fiorina (but is that a head fake?)… Kend rick Meek goes on the attack against Jeff Greene… Today's Primary Day in Oklahoma; polls close at 8:00 pm ET… Previewing CA-3… And Andrew Romanoff sells his home to loan his campaign money.

*** Rocky times for the GOP in Colorado: Every day, it seems, brings us another crazy GOP development in Colorado. But it will be hard to top what happened yesterday, when Tom Tancredo (who is now running for governor as an indie) and state Republican Party chair Dick Wadhams squared off on a local radio program. We have three takeaways after listening to the Tancredo-Wadhams debate: 1) It was clear that the GOP has given up on its two gubernatorial candidates in this key state; 2) you had the state party leader and a former congressman saying things -- publicly -- that typically get said in smoke-filled back rooms; and 3) Republicans are getting close to blowing it in a battleground state in which they should make gains come November. Indeed, when is the last time we've talked about Michael Bennet, Andrew Romanoff, or John Hickenlooper? Exactly...

*** A final thought on Tancredo-Wadhams: Folks, we can't stress enough how unusual it is to hear a prominent state party chairman and a former congressman/presidential candidate engage in a screaming match on talk radio about the future of the GOP in Colorado. If you are a political junkie of any stripe, it's compelling radio. Yes, it's a 20- to 30-minute investment of time. But trust us, it's that good. (The clash starts at about the 10-minute mark.)

*** Today's war supplemental vote: Turning to the news in Washington… After the WikiLeaks document dump on Afghanistan, the House today will vote on the war supplemental bill, NBC's Luke Russert reports. The legislation contains the funding for the actual military campaigns that are ongoing in Iraq and Afghanistan. It will require a two-thirds vote to pass because the rules will be suspended, Russert adds, and it is done when lawmakers feel they have enough votes to bypass the usual Rules Committee process of laying out the rules for the debate. House Democratic and GOP leadership aides have told Russert that they feel the legislation will pass. By the way, a House subcommittee is today marking up a Defense appropriations bill that Obama -- with the emphatic support of Defense Secretary Robert Gates -- has threatened to veto over a jet-fighter engine.

*** Disclose this: Over in the other chamber, the Senate today will vote the DISCLOSE Act, the legislation crafted -- after the Citizens United decision -- to require disclosure of corporate spending in efforts to influence races for federal office. It's likely that Democrats don't have the 60 Senate votes needed to invoke cloture when the vote takes place at 2:45 pm ET. The New York Times: "The House has passed the measure... But in the Senate, with a solid wall of Republican opposition, the measure is expected to fall short of the 60 votes needed to avoid a filibuster." Knowing that the legislation will likely be filibustered, Obama delivered a speech yesterday trying to score political points. "You'd think that reducing corporate and even foreign influence over our elections would not be a partisan issue," Obama said. "But of course, this is Washington in 2010."

*** A poor sales job: Supporters of this legislation who will be disappointed by today's result only have themselves to blame; they've done a horrible job at educating the public on exactly what this legislation will do. And then there are all the special carve-outs -- for the NRA, for AARP, for unions. In short, it looks like a boondoggle. And at a time when Congress' job rating is barely in double-digits, why should they expect the public to believe they are capable of writing rules that would somehow do anything other than help their own re-election prospects? Congress has never succeeded in legislating campaign money. This year's reform becomes next year's loophole (see the history of political action committees).

*** Obama today: At 11:00 am ET, President Obama meets at the White House with bipartisan congressional leaders -- Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Mitch McConnell, and John Boehner. (Roll Call says that extending the Bush tax cuts is on the agenda.) An hour later, Obama will deliver a statement to reporters. At 7:00 pm in DC, Obama attends a fundraiser for the DNC.

*** Aiding Carly: While the situation might not be good for Republicans in Colorado, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has decided that things are looking good enough in California to set aside $1.75 million to help Carly Fiorina defeat Sen. Barbara Boxer in the fall. The AP: "Republicans have reserved $1.75 million for television ads to help Carly Fiorina in the final week of the California Senate race… The Republicans plan to target the Los Angeles market and the money would buy enough air time for viewers to see an ad -- at least in part -- 10 times." Also, the NRSC has tapped California-based GOP communications adviser Brian Jones to help the Republican Senate races in California, Nevada, and Washington state.

*** A head fake? The NRSC's aid is an interesting decision in this one respect: A $1.75 million buy is a drop in the bucket when it comes to California TV, especially when you consider the fact that Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown and their allies will be up with cajillions at the same time. Does the NRSC really think their $1.75M will make a dent? Could this be a head fake by the NRSC to force Barbara Boxer to panic and beg the DSCC for money and also assist Fiorina in raising national money?

*** Meek on the attack: In Florida, meanwhile, Kendrick Meek is punching back against wealthy Jeff Greene in the state's Democratic Senate primary. In his first TV ad, Meek dumps nearly all the oppo on Greene -- he's a former Republican, made his money betting against subprime mortgage loans -- except for Greene's Mike Tyson/Heidi Fleiss links. Of course, this ad raises a key question for Meek: If he's having this difficult a time against a candidate with this much baggage, what does this say about Meek's chances come November? The primary is less than a month from now…

*** Oklahoma! Today, it's Primary Day in Oklahoma, where the marquee contests are the Dem and GOP gubernatorial primaries to succeed term-limited Gov. Brad Henry (D). On the Democratic side, Attorney General Drew Edmondson at Lt. Gov. Jari Askins are battling for the nomination, while Rep. Mary Fallin is the overwhelming favorite to win the GOP nod, and she would be the front-runner in November. Polls close at 8:00 pm ET.

*** 75 House races to watch: CA-3: The GOP nominee is eight-term incumbent Dan Lungren; the Democratic nominee is Ami Bera, a physician who has raised more money than Lungren for five-consecutive quarters, per the Sac Bee. McCain won 49% in this district in '08, and Bush won 58% here in '04. Lungren voted against the stimulus, cap-and-trade, and health care. Both Cook and Rothenberg rate the race as Lean Republican.

*** More midterm news: In Colorado's Democratic Senate primary, Andrew Romanoff has sold his Colorado house to loan his campaign $325,000, per the Denver Post. ("I'm never home anyway," Romanoff said.) … In Pennsylvania, Joe Sestak said Obama "has offered to come to Pennsylvania to campaign, but he would not be Sestak's first choice," the Morning Call writes. "He'd rather have Obama's wife, Michelle, hit the trail with him… And in Tennessee, a Mason-Dixon showed Knoxville Mayor [Bill] Haslam leading [Rep. Zach] Wamp by 36 percent to 25 percent," the Chattanooga Times-Free Press reports.

Countdown to KS and MO primaries: 7 days
Countdown to CO and CT primaries: 14 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 98 days

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