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Today, a blog posting by University of Minnesota political scientist Eric Ostermeier -- noting that National League wins in All-Star games (like the one last night) have historically predicted big GOP House and Senate gains -- is receiving a lot of attention this morning.
Here's Politico: "[A] National League victory in the Mid-Season Classic has preceded every election with double-digit GOP House gains since 1950. The pattern is similar in the Senate. Since 1948, every time the Republicans have gained at least five Senate seats the National League has won. The flipside, however, is also true in the upper chamber: American League victories have preceded Democratic gains of five or more Senate seats since 1948."
But it's important to point out that a National League All-Star win hasn't always GUARANTEED big GOP gains. Example: In 1996, the last time the National League won the game, Republicans picked up two Senate seats while Dems picked up three House seats (and Bill Clinton won re-election).
Indeed, Ostermeier makes this point:
A National League victory does not guarantee major GOP gains in the House - it has been a necessary but not sufficient condition for Republican success in modern political history. (National League victories have also occasionally preceded big gains by House Democrats: in 1964, 1970, 1974, and 1982).
However, over the past 60 years one thing is for certain: an American League victory in the summer classic has meant either only modest gains by Republicans in the House (in 1962, 1992, 2004) or, more likely, gains by the Democrats (in 1948, 1954, 1958, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1998, 2000, 2006, 2008).
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It's a connection without a correlation, guys. One of those interesting tidbits, but about as useful as a ouija board in predicting outcomes.
There are better historical references to turn to, that are much better predictors of the outcome of these mid-terms. It's going to be bad for the dems.
Want a better predictor? How about this: BP removed the ill-fitting cap from the pipe which allows the oil to gush with no retrictions-they were about the fit a cap that would capture ALL of the gushing oil.
The White House stopped them from fitting it-with no explanation.
Now,call me cynical, but Michelle Obama is due to appear on the scene in the next few days. Want to lay odds that the cap will be fitted while she is on site?
That will be a pure coincidence, right?
no joe, no bo, nj, The White House stopped them from fitting it-with no explanation.
That is not accurate according to reports last night and this morning. The truth is there are those that are studying the well who would like to get more information about the pressure readings before continuing with the process. It is a step to gain more knowledge of what to expect once the valves are closed.
I think it is the right move since they are not completely sure about how the cap will function.
Here's an excellent, fact-laden article that explains all about what's going on in the Gulf right now.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/07/14/gulf.oil.disaster/index.html?hpt=T1
But I don't think it's so much about how the cap will function as it is about whether there was significant damage to the well under the ocean floor that will cause the cap not to work. There's also some concern -- although it seems to be remote -- that testing the cap could cause the back of the relief well to blow out. Very interesting reading.
Sure-it is far better to have the oil gushing unimpeded than it is to have a cap that could capture one hundred percent of what is flowing,is it not?
BP is frustrated; state officials in the Gulf are frustrated. There is NO COHERENT explanation from the White House as to why they are withholding approval to go ahead and fit the cap. None.
Wait and see-but if it is fitted when Michelle Obama is on site, there is NO WAY I will be convinced that this is a mere coincidence.
Neither will a lot of other voters.
"The White House stopped them from fitting it-with no explanation."
You have got to be suspending a LOT of disbelief to fall for this.
Are we to believe that somehow the word was passed from on high to "just leave it till the weekend, for the photo op" and no one of the thousands of people working on this project or reporting on it had a problem with this? Simple critical thinking would indicate that this is probably not the case. Use your noggin before believing thing you just want to believe.
No Jo you know I love you dear but you have just got to slow up a little on getting on here and repeating talking points your getting from a bad source. I just went back and looked and I could find three stories in 10 minutes to explain just exactly why they have delayed the testing on the cap( that is already in place) that make perfect sense from an engineering stand point. Or are you going to get back on here and tell me that your superior education trumps my 40 years of work in related fields that my give me a little bit better back ground in understanding that little thing. It has nothing to do with anybody showing up any where and a whole lot to do with making sure that the situation is not being made worse by destroying what little bit of pipe integrety that they have left.
NoJo...
Your conspiracy theories about everything are really starting to wear thin. I hope you don't truly believe some of the cr@p you write and are saying it strictly for 'shock' value!
no jo, you are wearing your tinfoil hat again. and again, you are making things up. basically lying again and again and again. maybe joe wilson should have yelled "you lie" in your direction.
by the way, still waiting for the "80% of wallstreet is made up of liberals" link from an older post. where is it? you really need to get a job. although, most companies prefer employees that tell the truth and don't make up facts.
The cap is in place. They were slowly closing the valves and carefully watching and taking readings as the pressue builds to see if 1) the cap will be able to withstand the pressure without blowing itself or 2) the surrounding ocean floor around the well has not been damaged to the point that any increase in pressure would cause a natural blowout and therefore making the cap useless, and even more disasterous making the relief wells being dug useless.
There have been some readings taken of the ocean floor around the well-head (by the government and by BP) that both government scientists and BP engineers are not pleased with. So they have suspended closing the valves on the cap until further study of these readings can be made and therefore to better ensure that a ntaural blow out will not occur. This is a concerted effort and not something the government damanded be done without BP's agreement and acknowledgment of the potential problem. The time it will take to study these readings further and to ensure to a greater degree that the sea bed can take the building pressure once the cap valves are completely closed has been estimated at 2 hours to 48 hours.
Now proceed no joe. Proceed with your innuendos and uninformed complaints against government intervention.
Thanks for the FACTS CA.... just the facts!
I too have been wondering why we are not hearing much about what's going on down at the ocean floor. Something tells me if it was good news we would already know all about it..
who wants to break it to njnbnj that the reason they haven't attempted to seal this sucker is that they are still trying to harvest the fruit. The poisonous, noxious fruit that is killing the sealife and the flora and fauna in the wetlands,...Anything for a buck? isn't that the precedent?
In addition no joe:
When the cap was put in place and secured on to the well head pipe BP engineers noticed that the cap was leaning at an appprox. 25 - 35 degree angle. This will of course have a negative impact on the integrity (strength) on the side of the cap pulled away from the pipe as a result of this angle. This angle also decreases the amount of adjoined pipe wall and cap wall available to take the increased pressure at the point where the angle creates a less than satisfactory fit. It would be like placing a plastic cap on a coke bottle sideways (or at an angle). As pressure builds the plastic cap is likely to give on the side that is making less contact with the top (throat) of the bottle. This is another problem that has caused the delay on closing the valves, and was discovered and acknowledged by BP.
No Joe -- Now you've even got me mad. And that requires some doing. READ THE ARTICLE I POSTED. It explains the whole thing, which means somebody must have told somebody. Steven Chu was right there with BP when the decision was made not to finish the capping process until they were sure the test would work properly. I strongly suspect there was some discussion with that.
Feisty:
My fear is that government scientist and BP engineers have both discovered recent bulges on their radar ocean floor readings that were not there before the original blowout. They have been monitoring the geographical plane and landscape near and around this well head from the beginning. If indeed bulges have appeared, no matter how slight, the increased pressure on these bulges as a result of capping and closing the valves on the cap could result in the ocean floor erupting at several points along pipeline that is located at subocean floor depths between the well head and the oil reserve. If even one of these bulges erupts the two relief wells being dug would be made usless and the only way the oil leak would stop is when the reserve runs dry.
But you know, that is just another government conspiracy.
Actually Clara while I agree that part of B.P's motivation to this point has been to harvest as much as they can for the reasons that C.A. has laid out so well above it may get to the point here in the real near future where the only way they are going to be able to stop a natural failure of the well head due to over pressurization is to hook as many tankers as they can to this device( 4 I think) and keep letting it relieve itself until it's played out. That was what the tests were originally laid out to determine and from what I'm seeing since early this morning C.A. is spot on the money. So B.P. is probably going to end up with the product whether anybody likes it or not I just hope that they choke on it
Nojo
Since you are so paranoid about everything being a government conspiracy do you also believe 9/11 was a conspiracy between the Bush Administration and Al Qaeda? I have heard of such a conspiracy and it has as much or more validity than the BP-US conspiracy you seem want to talk about.
Why not ask the octopus that predicted the World Cup?
Some statistitions just can't help playing with numbers can they? Me I'm just happy that the N.L. finally won one and my guy(Matt Capps) got the win. Look out A.L. were going to send Strasburg up there next year and for the next ten( I hope). I'll deal with the politics in November when the season's over.
What's the matter Mark & Domenico?
Did the crytal ball go 'kaput'?
As HOT & muggy as it is here today... thanks for something a bit lighter!
Mere coincidence that does not having any bearing on the present and future political races. Glad the NL won and I hope that the AL will dump the worthless Designated Hitter rule which keeps old farts around far too long. I like the NL for the way pitchers get to hit and managers have to make decisions as to when to put in a pinch hitter.
Ha Ha Bachmann Moron Overdrive lost two important staffers today. She has now lost her 5th Chief of Staff in 4 years, that's got to bode poorly for Bachmann Moron Overdrive. What kind of jerky girl person is she when she keeps losing Chiefs of Staff? A total jerk who cares only about herself. About time to send Bachmann Moron Overdrive to the unemployment line where she belongs. Let's see her pay her bills on $1,200 a month.
Tarryl Clark is going to end up pulling out a big surprise this November as she unseats the craziest laziest liar in the House. Shame on the Useful Idiots who voted for her twice, about time they show they aren't as mentally unhinged as this facist racist tea bagging loudmouthed liar.
Great post.
I vote for the octopus also. The cap is still in place but they are looking at a few issues. One as noted above, the whole apparatus is leaning putting additional stress on the attached components. Some of the data collected is causing concerns with the integrity of the pipping and they are afraid that the pressure may cause more damage and also hinder the success of the relief well. From this I think they are doing the prudent thing in reevaluating the process. The last thing we need now is a well that is s damaged that a relief well will no longer work and we will have to wait 10, 20 years or more for ALL the oil to bleed out. That would be very bad indeed. I do not for a minute think this is a photo op session. If this was Bush and his crone's maybe. He did it once from the deck of an Carrier.