From NBC's Mike Viqueira
If things go according to plan, think 8:30 pm-ish finish.
This is all a back of the envelope calculation. Please do not use for any actual cash wager, and please keep in mind that even during procedural debate, there will be discussion of the larger underlying health-care reform issues:
- 1:00 pm ET: House comes in for 10 "ONE MINUTE" speeches.
- 1:20-ish: Debate on two "points of order" (i.e., objections) against the rule (having to do with budgetary impact). Each point gets 20 minutes debate.
- 2:15-ish: Vote on the POO's
- 2:45-ish: Debate begin on the rule
- 4:00-ish: Vote on the rule
- 4:30-ish: Two-hour general health care debate begins
- 7:00-ish: Debate ends. Vote on the SENATE bill begins (This is where John Boehner has asked for a manual vote, which would take much longer than a normal electronic vote. He isn't likely to get it, however.)
- 730-ish: Debate on a Republican "motion to recommit." This is the Republicans' best shot all day, a motion that would scuttle the whole thing. Substance is always a secret until last minute, but we can expect it to involve abortion in an effort to put the Stupak group on the spot.)
- 745-ish: Vote on motion to recommit
- 800-ish: If motion to recommit fails, then the final vote on reconciliation "fixes."
- 830-ish: Gavel comes down on final vote. If it's close, Dem leaders will extend the usual 15 minutes to twist arms.
If the GOP decides to use dilatory motions throughout the day, they can do that. In that case, it goes even later. But it's doubtful they will.