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Sestak's path

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Don't miss that in the Franklin and Marshall poll out today on the Pennsylvania Senate race that Arlen Specter's approval rating is just 23%.

It was just six months ago that Specter jumped ship and joined the Democrats because he saw the writing on the primary wall. It made him the automatic statewide favorite.

Specter still leads former admiral and congressman Joe Sestak in a Democratic primary, 30%-18% (with more than 47% undecided). But that's closer than in August when Specter led Sestak, 37%-11%.

Specter beats Toomey in a general election matchup, but by just two points, 33%-31%. Toomey leads Sestak 28%-20%, but with so few committed in that hypothetical matchup, that is likely a product of Sestak's lack of name ID.

Specter didn't receive rave reviews for his handling of a healthcare town hall that made its way around the cable channels, and Sestak has half a year to improve on getting better known, which gives Sestak a forseeable avenue to actually win.