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Poll: Dem leads in NY-20

From NBC's Mark Murray
This is potentially bad news for the GOP: A new Siena Research Institute poll shows Scott Murphy (D) leading Jim Tedisco (R), 47%-43%, in that special election taking place in upstate New York on Tuesday. (Hat tip: Taegan Goddard.)

An earlier Siena poll this month had Tedisco up by fours points (45%-41%), and in February, Tedisco was ahead by 12 (46% to 34%).

As we've written, it would be a P.R. disaster for Republicans if they lose this GOP-leaning congressional district, where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats and which the GOP held for 28 years until Kirsten Gillibrand (D) won it in 2006. (That said, Obama did capture 51% of the vote in this district last November.)

"If Republicans lose this race, it is likely to have more significant aftershocks than if Democrats lose," Amy Walter of the Hotline told First Read.

"I think Republicans will have to do some introspection if they lose this race," added David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. "If there is any district in New York they should be able to get back, it is this one."

Meanwhile, Tedisco released this statement about the new Siena poll: "Heading into Election Day, our campaign's internal polling shows us continuing to lead, just as we have for this entire race. Today's Siena poll is simply another in a line of polls that show this race within the margin of error.  In the end this race is coming down to voter intensity and turnout, and our internal polls show us with strong leads in both areas."