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The loyalty question

From NBC's Carrie Dann and Jeff Hanley
With many of the players still pointing fingers over which party lacked discipline in whipping up support for the bailout yesterday, yet another look back at the roll call vote offers a few numbers to keep in mind.  

Of the 47 House Dems who endorsed Obama BEFORE Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, 26 voted in favor of the bailout legislation. That leaves 21 -- almost half of the original Obama loyalists -- who voted against the bill he supported.

Two powerful House caucuses were also split. The Congressional Black Caucus voted 18 Yea votes to 21 Nays. The Hispanic Caucus also voted down the bailout, with eight members voting  in favor and 12 voting against the bailout.

But is any of this a measure of the loyalty Barack Obama commands? Or was it the threat of a tough re-election race that was ultimately the best predictor of support or opposition to the bill?

Of 38 incumbents in House races rated by the Cook Political Report as competitive or Toss Ups, 30 voted against the bailout. That's all but five of 17 Dems in tough reelection races, and all but three of 21 Republican incumbents running for another term. And, as First Read noted this morning, most retiring members not running for office -- 19 out of 24 -- voted in favor of the recovery bill.