From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
Today's Quinnipiac numbers for three key battleground states suggest that Obama may have indeed gotten a "bounce" after Clinton's exit left him the undisputed, presumptive nominee. Yet a closer look at the poll finds that -- at least in these states right now -- there would be no sizeable benefit for Obama to make Clinton his running mate.
Only 21% of Florida voters, 23% of Ohio voters, and 25% of Pennsylvania voters say they'd be more likely to support the Democratic ticket if Clinton were a part of it. In each case, a slightly smaller percentage said they'd be less likely to vote for that "dream" ticket, with a majority saying it would make no difference.
Most significantly, Quinnipiac found that independent voters in those key battlegrounds believe that the Illinois senator should not select his New York counterpart -- and by double-digit margins in two of the three.
"If Sen. Obama seriously is thinking about picking Sen. Clinton as his running mate, these numbers might cause him to reconsider," Quinnipiac's Peter Brown said in a release.
Sam Arora, a former Clinton campaign staffer now speaking for the "Vote for Both" movement that is pushing for an Obama-Clinton ticket, counters that Clinton boosts Obama among key demographics in these states, and questions the polling firm's "misleading lede and prepared bytes."
"Sen. Obama holds only a slim lead in these states and adding Clinton to the ticket would give him a vital boost into safer territory," Arora said.
Quinnipiac also tested some "favorite son" choices in each state, and in each case far fewer voters said such a selection would impact their choice.
Interestingly, voters in all three states said they did not think Bill Clinton would be a problem for the Democratic ticket if his wife was on it -- though again independent voters were more likely to think he would.
On the Republican side, President Bush is a much greater concern, with his approval rating in each state hovering in the 20s. And a double-digit percentage of former Bush voters in each state now say they'd support Obama.