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New Pa. poll has Clinton holding lead

From NBC's Chuck Todd
A new MSNBC/McClatchy/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette poll of Pennsylvania indicates things are staying fairly competitive in the Pennsylvania Dem primary.

The poll of 625 likely Dem primary voters was conducted Thursday and Friday and showed Clinton leading Obama 48-43%. Considering the 4% margin of error, it means Clinton's lead is inside the margin.

Click here to read the entire MSNBC/McClatchy/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette poll.

Still, the poll is consistent with what the campaigns and other reputable polls have been showing and that is Clinton getting close to 50% and Obama struggling to climb over 45%.

So what happens on Tuesday? Well, let's take a look at the undecided vote. Going inside the poll's demographics, one finds the highest undec. totals in the more rural parts of the state; that's not good news for Obama. In the so-called "T" region of the state (i.e., almost everything between Philly and Pittsburgh), Clinton leads 51-37 with 11% undecided; this is one of the few demographic groups sporting double-digit undecided.

Two other interesting cross-tabs with high undecideds also indicate the potential that undecided vote will break for Clinton. Among bowlers (24% of the electorate) and gun owners (38% of the electorate), Clinton leads big. She's up 54-33 among bowlers and 53-28 among gun owners; There were 13% undec. among bowlers and 17% undec among gun owners.

So while the poll shows Clinton with a narrow lead (and arguably a narrowing lead), the clues inside the numbers indicate this is her race to lose and that her lead could expand. Should this race end up as close as this poll indicates (i.e. 5 points or less), then this means many of these undec. potential Clinton voters decided to stay home; If the come to the polls, she could see her lead climb to over 5 points.

And that's the game Tuesday, not if Clinton will win, but how big will her victory be.  She'd like to net more than 200K in the popular vote which she would only get with both a large turnout (approx. 2 million total) and a 10 point victory.