From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Lombardo Consulting Group, of DC, put together pretty comprehensive look at this election based on publicly available survey data since 2005.
Some bullet points from LCG's report:
-- Hillary Clinton has taken command of the Democratic nomination for President.
--The Obama campaign is becoming less and less relevant with each passing day.
--Rudy Giuliani is running a general election campaign built on his "electability" and no-one on the Republican side is challenging this premise.
--Romney's advertising-fueled, early lead in Iowa and NH is eroding.
--Thompson may regret going on Leno instead of debating in NH.
--If McCain is to come back from the dead it will happen in New Hampshire.
--The Giuliani campaign won the award for best tactical maneuver in September
--Polling indicates that Republican primary voters are substantially more satisfied with the GOP candidates they have to chose from then they were in July.
--On the other hand, voters still know very little about the candidates.
--A just released CBS News survey shows that job approval rating for the Democratic-controlled Congress is at 27% which is 6% BELOW the President's job approval rating.
--Michigan matters and the media will amplify this.
--Every eventual GOP nominee since 1980 has won South Carolina. (Yes, they also won either NH or Iowa but the fact is that South Carolina may be more important than either of those two early states.)